end-user focused verification of precipitation nowcasts during the sochi 2014 winter olympics larisa...
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END-USER FOCUSED VERIFICATION OF PRECIPITATION NOWCASTSDURING THE SOCHI 2014 WINTER OLYMPICS
Larisa Nikitina 1, Suleiman Mostmandy 2, Pertti Nurmi (presenter) 3
1 Aviamettelecom of Roshydromet, Russian Federation, ([email protected])2 North-west department of Roshydromet, Russian Federation (http://suleiman.rshu.ru)
3 Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland, ([email protected])
NOWCASTING SYSTEMS FOR SOCHI 2014 WINTER
OLYMPICS
• RDP
• Model–based• Pointwise
• 10 min/6 hours
• Temperature• Humidity• Wind
direction and speed
• Precipitation
INTW (Env.Canada)
• FDP
• Radar –based• Pointwise
• 10 min/1,5 hour
• Only precipitation (rate and accumulated)
CARDS (Env.Canada)
• FDP
• Blended (Radar +NWP)
• Gridded (1km)
• 10 min/ up to 48 hours
• Temperature• Humidity• Wind
direction, speed and gusts
• Precipitation (10 min)
INCA (ZAMG, Austria)
• FDP
• Radar –based• Pointwise
• 10 min/4 hours
• Temperature• Humidity• Wind direction,
and speed• Precipitation• Visibility• Ceiling
MeteoExpert(IRAM, Russia)
• FDP
• Model–based• Pointwise
• Hourly/up to 48 hours
• Temperature,• Humidity• Wind speed,
direction and gusts
• MSLP
Joint (Multi-system
forecast integration,
RHM)
QUICK LOOK AT THE DATA
Nowcasting (precipitation accumulation):
• CARDS – (10 min) from 25.01.2014 till 31.03.2014
• INCA - (10 min) from 27.01.2014 till 19.03.2014
• INTW – (10min) from 18.02.2014 till 03.04.2014
Stations used in verification:
• Imeretinka (37095), 6m, precip: Vaisala VRG101
• Ski Jump (39040), 630m, precip: OTT Pluvio-2
• Biathlon Stadium (39044), 1460 m, precip: OTT
• Rosa Khutor 3, 2043 m, precip: ARG100
Verification aspects:
Point-wise forecast vs. observation
Categorical verification
Subjective evaluation by forecasters
CARDS Visualization
INTW Visualization
NOWCASTSEvaluated
Subjectively
• 4‐point scale:• 0 – not useful• 1 – partly useful• 2 – useful• 3 ‐ excellent
• Overall forecasters’ opinion was that the available technologies were very helpful
• Except: Perhaps too many systems
(difficult to absorb in operational setting)
CARDS (25.01. - 31.03.2014)
Some extremes observedbut not forecasted - 29.03 and 31.03
Some good forecasts:- 02.02 -18.02, no precipitation -16.03, fcst and obs 3-4mm/h (but not for Imeretinka)
Some false alarms - 02.03 - 09.03
Point forecasts statistics for CARDS
Imeretinka Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor
0,1 mm/h 0,57 0,75 0,69 0,61
1 mm/h 0,30 0,53 0,43 0,41
2,5 mm/h 0,06 0,06 0,05 0,02
0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00
CARDS 60 min - POD
Imeretinka Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor
0,1 mm/h 0,48 0,42 0,34 0,22
1 mm/h 0,62 0,35 0,3 0,36
2,5 mm/h 0,87 0,81 0,84 0,96
0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00
CARDS 60 min - FAR
Imeretinka Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor
0,1 mm/h 0,51 0,68 0,62 0,57
1 mm/h 0,29 0,51 0,42 0,4
2,5 mm/h 0,06 0,08 0,04 0,01
0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00
CARDS 60 min - KSS
Imeretinka Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor0,1 mm/h 0,67 0,8 0,76 0,74
1 mm/h 0,56 0,74 0,69 0,67
2,5 mm/h 0,39 0,33 0,31 0,18
0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00
CARDS 60 min - EDI
INCA (27.01. – 19.03.2014)
Some extremes observed but not forecasted 29.01 and 17.03
Some good forecasts:- 02.02 -16.02, no precipitation -12.03 and 16.03, fcst and obs 2-4mm/h (not for RKHU 3)!
Point forecasts statistics for INCA
Imeretinka Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor
0,1 mm/h 0,75 0,70 0,46
1 mm/h 0,55 0,39 0,15
2,5 mm/h 0,17 0,33 0,00
0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00
INCA 60 min - POD
Imeretinka Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor
0,1 mm/h 0,38 0,52 0,13
1 mm/h 0,45 0,73 0,30
2,5 mm/h 0,75 0,67 1,00
0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00
INCA 60 min - FAR
Imeretinka Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor
0,1 mm/h 0,70 0,61 0,44
1 mm/h 0,53 0,35 0,15
2,5 mm/h 0,16 0,33 0,00
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
INCA 60 min - KSS
Imeretinka Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor
0,1 mm/h 0,82 0,74 0,67
1 mm/h 0,75 0,56 0,50
2,5 mm/h 0,53 0,67 0,00
0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00
INCA 60 min - EDI
INTW (18.02. – 03.04.2014)
Some events observedbut not forecasted - 21.02 and 31.03
Some good forecasts:- 21.02 -26.02, no precipitation - 05.03 and 27.03, fcst and obs 2mm/h (not for RKHU 3)!
Some false alarms - 16-18.03 and 20.03
Point forecasts statistics for INTW
Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor
0,1 mm/h 0,70 0,88 0,42
1 mm/h 0,11 0,14 0,02
2,5 mm/h 0,02 0,03 0
0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00
INTW 60 min - POD
Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor
0,1 mm/h 0,42 0,37 0,69
1 mm/h 0,36 0,06 0,84
2,5 mm/h 0,56 0,00 1,00
0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00
INTW 60 min - FAR
Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor0,1 mm/h 0,57 0,75 0,18
1 mm/h 0,09 0,14 0
2,5 mm/h 0,01 0,03 0
00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,9
1
INTW 60 min - KSS
Ski Jump Biathlon Stadium Rosa Khutor
0,1 mm/h 0,70 0,88 0,24
1 mm/h 0,30 0,51 0,04
2,5 mm/h 0,12 0 0
0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,00
INTW 60 min - EDI
Skill (HSS) for 3 Nowcast Systems : CARDS, INCA, INTW
1. In general, all nowcasts
demonstrate relatively good
skill.
2. They were considered very
useful by forecasters during
the Games.
3. CARDS shows best overall
scores.
4. Underestimation at some
sites but, contradictory: Poor
forecasts of intense
precipitation (missed
events).
0,62
0,48
0,02
0,53
0,24
0,01
0,16
0 0
Rosa Khutor, 2043 m
cards inca intw
0,61
0,52
0,15
0,51
0,30 0,33
0,65
0,21
0,05
0,1 MM/H 1 MM/H 2,5 MM/H
Biathlon Stadium, 1440 m
cards inca intw
LESSONS LEARNED
Nowcast problems (all models) :• Timing: Time of the start and end of phenomena (precipitation)• Precipitation amount in case of weakly developed processes• Maximum wind speed • Visibility and ceiling
Forecasters’ model-related challenges:• Number of products is both an advantage and a challenge – with many new
products and time for decision-making is strictly limited• Degree of model usage depends on the degree of forecasters’ familiarity with
models and, therefore, confidence in it (more familiar = more usable)• Forecasters (other end-users as well) need time to adapt to new products
Forecasting issues during the Olympics Key role of forecasters in:
• Integration and control of diverse and (sometimes) contradictory model information
• Decision-making process for the high-impact events !
Thank you for your attention!