End of Cycle report

UCAS Analysis and researchDecember 2015

2015

End of Cycle Report 2015

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Foreword

Our End of Cycle report evidences another record year for UK higher education with 532,300

students starting their studies in 2015. The increasing numbers are eye-catching, as are the

improving rates of progression which take account of changes in the underlying population. But

2015 saw an unusual uptick in the 18 year old population in the UK which has flattered the totals.

From 2016 until 2020, we expect the young population to continue to decline by around 1-2 per

cent per year which will make it harder to continue recent rates of increase in volume.

This years report also shows increases in international recruitment, particularly from EU

countries. And growing divergence between approaches in each of the four UK countries are

visible in changing patterns of offer rates, acceptance rates, and enrolments.

As the more competitive recruitment environment evolves, the majority of applicants are enjoying

record offer rates and higher acceptance rates the high number of students receiving a full set of

five offers suggests that potential applicants for 2017 could afford to be even more ambitious in at

least some of their applications.

Two new sections in this years report highlight important aspects of fair access and widening

participation.

In one (page 59) we examine offer making from higher tariff providers in depth. UCAS data

scientists have developed their methodology to create control groups against which to compare

offer rates for applicants from various ethnic and social backgrounds to all applicants with the

same predicted grade profiles and courses applied to. The results are very encouraging in that the

offer rates we see closely follow this control group over a wide range of predicted grades and

courses. There are some slightly lower offer rates for poorer applicants, some ethnic groups, and

men, which warrant continued monitoring. But it is important to be able to reassure potential

applicants that they can be confident that the selection process for admissions is fair.

In the second (page 129), we have expanded our analysis of entry rates by relative disadvantage.

By creating a model of the probability of entering higher education, we can look in much more

detail at how multiple dimensions of disadvantage play out in the overall picture of inequality in

entry to higher education.

Our new results show that although the differences in entry between rich and poor continue to

reduce, other differences grow. We have previously highlighted the unacceptably large and

widening gap between entry rates for men and women and this year shows young men, and

especially young white men, falling even further behind. We draw attention to this again this year

because our new measures are signalling that the widening gap between men and women is

acting to stall progress in reducing inequality overall.

This is a report rich with information about participation, progression and admissions to higher

education in the UK. A full set of data files and image files are published alongside this report for

reuse and further investigation.

Mary Curnock Cook

Chief Executive

End of Cycle Report 2015

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Notes to the Report

Population estimates

The population estimates used for the entry rates in this report are based on the most recent Mid-

Year Estimates and National Population Projections published by the Office for National Statistics,

which have been revised following the 2011 Census. These are updated from the population

estimates used for similar reporting in previous years. The revised population estimates are higher

for the young age group, resulting in lower entry rates. The key elements of the trends in entry

rates as previously reported are generally unaltered by the new estimates.

POLAR3

In this report the area-based measure of advantage and disadvantage used is the POLAR3

grouping, an updated version of the POLAR2 grouping used in previous reports, and the most

recent classification of small areas according to young HE participation available. Reporting by

POLAR3 means that the outcomes for people from advantaged and disadvantaged areas in this

report are different and not directly comparable to those in previous end of cycle reports.

Scotland

For people living in England, Wales and Northern Ireland UCAS covers the overwhelming majority

of full-time undergraduate provision so the statistics on acceptances or entry rates can be taken

as being very close to all recruitment to full-time undergraduate higher education. In Scotland

there is a substantial section of higher education provision that is not included in UCAS' figures.

This is mostly full-time higher education provided in further education colleges which represents

around one third of young full-time undergraduate study in Scotland, and this proportion varies by

geography and background within Scotland. Accordingly, figures on entry rates or total

recruitment in Scotland reflect only the part of full-time undergraduate study that uses UCAS.

In 2014, there were fewer very late acceptances than in other cycles recorded in the UCAS data

for some Scottish providers. These changes may mean that the number of applicants and

acceptances to Scottish UCAS providers in 2014 recorded through UCAS could be understated by

up to 2,000 compared to how applicants and acceptances have been reported in recent cycles.

This means that comparing 2014 applicants and acceptances for Scottish providers (or those from

Scotland) to other cycles may not give an accurate measure of change.

In 2015, around 120 courses at Scottish providers which were previously part of the UCAS Teacher

Training scheme (UTT) moved into the UCAS Undergraduate scheme. As such the number of

applicants and acceptances to Scottish providers in 2015 recorded through UCAS will include

those which were previously part of UTT, meaning that comparing 2015 applicants and

acceptances for Scottish providers (or those from Scotland, particularly those aged 21 or over) to

previous cycles may not give a like-for-like measure of change.

End of Cycle Report 2015

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Contents

Section 1 Key findings ..............................................................................................................9

Applicants and Acceptances ..................................................................................................... 10

Entry rates for young people ....................................................................................................................... 11

Entry rates by ethnic group and sex ............................................................................................................ 12

Entry rates for advantaged and disadvantaged groups .............................................................................. 13

Offer-making ................................................................................................................................................ 15

Admission routes ......................................................................................................................................... 18

Provider type and qualifications .................................................................................................................. 18

Section 2 Analytical overview ................................................................................................ 20

Applicants ................................................................................................................................ 21

Record number of applicants from all domiciles in 2015 ............................................................................ 21

Acceptances ............................................................................................................................. 22

UK domiciled acceptances increased to a record number in the 2015 cycle .............................................. 22

Acceptances from other countries in the EU increased 11 per cent in 2015 .............................................. 22

Acceptances from outside the EU increased to new high ........................................................................... 22

Acceptances to higher education providers in England at record level ...................................................... 26

Acceptances reach new high at all types of providers ................................................................................ 27

Acceptance rates ...................................................................................................................... 28

Acceptance rate increased in 2015, total acceptances increased at greater rate than number of

applicants..................................................................................................................................................... 28

Acceptance rate for UK main scheme applicants at highest since 2009 ..................................................... 29

Acceptance rates increased from UK and EU, broadly the same from outside EU ..................................... 30

Acceptance rates increased for all UK ag