Enabling Results: Monitoring and Evaluation in

the U.S. ENERGY STAR Program

September 28, 2012Ashley M. KingEnvironment Officer

What is ENERGY STAR?

• Largest US energy efficiency program

• Voluntary labeling system for home products, commercial and residential buildings, and industrial facilities

• Binary label targeting top 10% in energy performance.

• Administered by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Energy (DOE)

R&D

Building Codes andStandards

Increasing Energy Efficiency (Metrics)

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ENERGY STAR

Market Transformation

: Complements Other Policies

Purpose of EPA’s ENERGY STAR Performance Management Program

• to allow the EPA staff to better manage program resources

• to demonstrate to internal and external stakeholders that the ENERGY STAR program is achieving environmental results:

• Energy saved• Greenhouse gas emissions avoided

EPA’s Program Management Structure

• Three teams (approximately 80 total staff):• Product Labeling• Commercial and Industrial Buildings• Residential Homes

• Annually, each team conducts:• Business planning process• Program impact evaluation

• Each team has its own logic model, monitoring plan, and program impact methodology.

• All program impact results account for:• Only attribution above business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios• double-counting with EPA or other programs• free-ridership

Overall, 9 full-time employees and approximately 4% of total program budget are reserved for performance management.

Resources Activities Outputs Assessment/ Intermediate Long term Reassessment Outcomes Outcomes

- Budget

- Staff

Program Administration – Up to date product lists-- Up to date partner information-- Data collection on product shipments

Build Supply of Efficient products -- Add new products (using established guidelines)

Revise Product Specs-- as appropriate (using established guidelines)

Ensure Quality -- require proper use of logo in ads-- spot test products

Build Demand -- Outreach -- robust web-based info-- direct consumer efforts -- key product strategies-- partner by partner assistance -- coordinated national campaigns-- product procurement

Evaluation -- consumer awareness, understanding, etc-- progress assessments

Products-- # product categories-- # product models-- # product sales (annual)-- market penetration

Partners-- # manufacturers-- # retailers-- # program sponsors-- # states and others

Outreach-- # web visitors-- key visitor interests-- # media impressions-- # media impressions by key strategy and product

Compliance/Quality-- # advertising clips-- # companies advertising-- # violations-- # companies with violations-- Indication of manufacturer QA/QC issues-- lighting fixture violations-- Indication of retailer issues

Brand Information-- level of consumer awareness, understanding, etc

Benefits Projections-- estimates by product of future sales/benefits based on continued efforts

Annual review of key outputs against program near, mid, and long term goals for program and key product areas and revision of strategies, as appropriate

Energy Savings-- in kWh-- by product area-- program level

Reductions in GHG emissions-- in mmtce-- by product area-- program level

Investment in technology-- in $$-- program level

Net Savings on Energy bills-- in $$-- program level

Program Cost-effectiveness

Behavioral Change

Improved Energy Efficiency Policies for Product Efficiency

Cleaner Air

Reduced Risk of Climate Change

Improved Public Health

Cost Savings

Institutionalized Behavior Change

Part 1: The Annual Business Plan

• Assess how the program is performing relative to near, mid, and long term goals

• Identify opportunities for saving energy (i.e. what are the new specifications that are needed, which need to be revised?)

• Identify key opportunities for boosting outreach and leveraging partners (outreach campaigns, new state policies, etc.)

• Identify key needs for ensuring program integrity• Identify priority areas in improving performance

management• Allocate budget resources according to needs identified

and revise goals accordingly.

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

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New

CFLs

Light Fixtures

HVAC

Residential Appliances

Consumer Electronics

Residential Office Equipment

Commercial Appliances

Commercial Office Equipment

Other

Future goals higher than GPRA goals to ensure goals met/ address future uncertainties

Continuing Priority Areas:

• Office equipment (home and work)

• Consumer electronics (and power supplies)

• Residential HVAC• Residential lighting• Commercial food

service

Goals

Estimates of Reductions to 2020 by sector:• Commercial: ~12 mmtce• Residential: ~20 mmtce

Projections (for existing products)

Long-term Goals

• Electronics: TVs, Office Equipment, Power adapters

– About 6% of U.S national electricity flows through adapters -- about $17 billion/yr and ENERGY STAR models can save 35%

– TVs are growing area of energy use

– Office equipment growing: ENERGY STAR offers 5 to 60% savings

• Residential Heating and cooling– Almost 50% of residential energy bill of $180

million per year

– ENERGY STAR products offer 15 to 20 percent savings over standard models

– Big issue for utilities – peak power – reliability

• Residential lighting– 10% of average home energy bill– ENERGY STAR products require one-third

the electricity– Cost-effective potential of $8 billion annually

• Commercial kitchens– Energy intensive, across many commercial

buildings

– Allow product bundles

– Address water savings – which is of growing stakeholder interest

The Home Energy Bill

Part 2: Annual Program Impact Evaluation

Basic Formula: Products Sold x Savings per Product = Total Savings

•Products Sold (above BAU): – Collecting annual sales data on ENERGY STAR qualifying products from

participating product manufacturers as a condition of partnership .– Using established BAU baselines for annual product sales for each product

category. These baselines use historic data and expert judgment, and they typically reflect increasing market shares for efficient products and increasing product efficiencies over time.

•Savings Per Product (annual energy savings) – Assumes that ENERGY STAR products just meet the ENERGY STAR thresholds, – Assumes the typically purchased product meets minimum efficiency standards

where standards exist or uses the average energy use for the product category where there are no standards.

How are these results used?

• Annual business planning process

• Fulfill US government-wide performance reporting requirements (GPRA Act 1993)

• International reporting to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

• Communicated to external stakeholders via the ENERGY STAR Annual Report

In the end, what does this allow EPA to say about ENERGY STAR?

In 2010, ENERGY STAR helped Americans:

–Save 240 billion kilowatt hours, equal to about 5% of US electricity demand

–Avoid 195 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions, equal to annual emissions of 38 million US vehicles

–Save more than $20 billion dollars on their energy bills

Source: 2010 ENERGY STAR Annual Report, http://www.energystar.gov