en ödesfråga för världen -...

Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016

Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 1

Vårt livsviktiga vattenEn ödesfråga för världen

Gustaf Olsson Ekocentrum2 mars 2016

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• Water• Energy• Climate• Population increase

Gustaf Olsson

The great challengesIn

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The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Board of Government Relations (BGR) recommend the development of a national policy that addresses the interdependencies of reliable sources and efficient uses of energy and water.

(ASME June 2012)

Nexus not only for waterprofessionals…

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IEEEEngineers of the New Millennium: The Global Water Challenge

”Water is such a basic human need that it takesreal ingenuity to find new ways to control, retrieve, and share this critical resource….."

”…join the discussion about the Global Water Challenge.”

http://spectrum.ieee.org/static/special-report-global-water-challenge

Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson



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“Whiskey is for Drinking; Water is for Fighting.”– Mark Twain

Global water challenges

Gustaf Olsson

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Total water use by Country (2012)


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Water Stress index 2012


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Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016



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More plastic than fishin the seas in 2050 (SVT 20 Jan 2016)


100 kg plastics per person & year in Europe

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Mikroplaster från våra hem


KällaNaturskyddsföreningen

Också i räkmackan, lunchkyckligenoch inlagda sillen (Ethel Forsberg)

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Global energy supply depends on water!

Gustaf Olsson

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USA – summer 2012 –cooling thermal power plants

Millstone nuclear power plantWaterford, Conn

Shut down for> a week.

The water in Long Island Sound too warm (24.8°C)

to cool it (max 23.8°C)Gustaf Olsson



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France 2003 – the hot summer

Nuclear capacityreduced 7-15%during 5 weeksdoe to lack ofcooling water

Gustaf Olsson

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Thermal power generation vs. water scarcity - China, 2010 and 2030

China’s ‘Big Five’ power utilities (500 GW)are all located in water scarce regions

A 3-fold increase in water-intensive thermal power generation until 2030

Northern China60% of China’s thermal power capacity20% of China’s renewable freshwater supply

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, National Bureau of Statistics of China. Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016

Gustaf Olsson

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Tibet – the source of water for40% of the world population

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Planned dams in the Himalayas

• China– 100 dams in Tibet

• India, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan:– >400 dams -- 160,000 MW

• Megong (Lancang) river: – 60 dams from Tibet to SE Asia

• 1 dam for every 32 km of river channel




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Climatechange

Gustaf Olsson

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Source: IPCC 2013

Climate change consequences

More extreme weather

Wetter regionsIncreasing water stress

HydropowerCooling thermal plants

Arctic oil exploration

Agriculture (=food) crisis

Gustaf Olsson

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TyphoonHaiyan 2013Philippines

Gustaf Olsson



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El Nino

Gustaf OlssonVasakyrkan Örebro 1 mars 2016

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BrisbaneQueenslandJan. 2011

Gustaf Olsson

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60 days in 2014 Indu

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The California drought

Gustaf OlssonVasakyrkan Örebro 1 mars 2016



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Climate impact on water resources

• Increasing contrast in precipitationbetween wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons

• Europe: decreasing river flows in Southern and Eastern Europe (summer) -increasing in other regions (winter);

• Southern Europe: Increasing frequency and intensity of droughts

• Increase in water temperature in rivers and lakes


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Economic losses related to weather

• 9 out of 10 most commonly reported disasters are directly or indirectly related to weather and climate

• Economic losses related to hydro-meteorological hazards:around US$ 10 billion in 1956-65 around US$ 500 billion in 1996-2005


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Climate change and water


Currently, 1.6 billion people live in countries and regions with absolute water scarcity.The number is expected to rise to 2.8 billion people by 2025.

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Climate change and water (2)


Integrated water management critical:• coastal zone management, • water supply and infrastructure• agriculture.

Source: World Bank 2016



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After Paris Dec 2015 (1)

A triple transition.• Decarbonisation• Market design transition:

• Need for new regulatory frameworks and incentives to adapt to the new realities provided by the renewable energy revolution. Affects electricity, gas, transport and other sectors.

(Source: World Energy Council)

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After Paris Dec 2015 (2)

• Resilience transition. • World Energy Council project:

Financing Resilient Energy Infrastructure• Impact of

extreme weather eventscybersecurity threatsenergy-water-food nexus on the energy sector.

• This implies a different way of thinking about infrastructure and critical systems.

(Source: World Energy Council)

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Source: Yann Arthus-Bertra

Abengourou, Ivory Coast

We will be 9 billion in 2050


Population growth

1 more million every weekGustaf Olsson

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Sanitation


Food production

More meat consumption

Water supplyGustaf Olsson



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IndiaChina

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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016a global network for water professionals

Irrigation

Competing with: energy - manufacturing -drinking water -sanitation services

70% of total global withdrawals

Gustaf Olsson

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Drought in China 2010

• Around 50 million people faced watershortages in south-western China

• Damage to agriculture• Damage to hydropower


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Summer 2012 in USA –worst drought since the 1950s -80% of agricultural land was affected.

Price of corn soared

Corn for ethanol or for food?

Gustaf Olsson

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Food versus Feed and Fuel

Of the world food-crop calories:• 55% to directly nourish people• 36% goes to feed cattle• 9% goes to fuel

(biofuel and industrial products)


We get another 4% indirectly by eatingmeat, dairy or eggs

Gustaf Olsson

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Water for foodSome water footprints

02000400060008000

10000120001400016000

Liters/kg


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Energy for water –supply and wastewater treatment



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Energy cost to produce cold water

kWh / m3

Surface water 0.5 - 4

Recycled water 1 - 6

Desalination 4 - 8

Bottled water 1000 - 4000


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• Global coastal population 1.6 billion22% of the world population

• 21,000 desalination plants today Almost 50% use seawaterThe rest uses brackish water

• Typically a plant produces 1 liter of fresh water from around 2 liters of seawater

DesalinationIn

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• Desalination production in 201167 million m3/day10 liters/day each to 7 billion people!

• Water for 300 million people• By 2020:

Expected production 120 million m3

• Achievable costs 0.45 - 1 US$/m3

Desalination production

Source: Int. Desalination Association

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Clean Water Requires Energy!

• Pumping – Having efficient pumps

for adequate flows– Operating at dynamically

changing flows and pressures

• Aeration in wastewater treatment– Adequate compressors– Controlling the air flow for

variable loads

Increase efficiency!

Minimize air flow!

Gustaf Olsson



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0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5 kWh per m3

Pumping from source towaterworks

0.09

1.9

0.04

2.3

1.4

0.17 0.04 0.24

0.64

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Wastewater treatment energy

Influentthermal content

Influentorganic C

Externalel. energy

Externalchemicals

GHG

BiogasSludge

Wastewatertreatment

AD

Effluentthermalenergy


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0

5

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25

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Min Median Max

kWh / kg BOD

Wastewater treatment Sweden

1.54.5

40

Small vs. large plantsType of loadType of operation

Source: Lingsten et al. 2008Swedish Water

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Water use

Pumpingsewage

Wastewatertreatment

Pumping towaterworks

Drinking watertreatment

Waterdistribution

0.24

0.22

> 50

0.25-0.5

0.06

kWh/m3

Swedish averages

Source: Lingsten et al. 2008Swedish Water

1.5 – 4.5 – 40kWh / kg BOD

Gustaf Olsson



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Energy - treating impaired water

Requires more advanced technology

and more energy

Reused, brackish, sea water

Gustaf Olsson

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Water and Energy –inextricably linked

Demand for more energy

Demand for more water

Demand for more energy

Gustaf Olsson

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Water Energy

LandFood

• Population growth• Climate change• Urbanization

• Water for energy

• Water for food

• Energy for water• Energy for food

• Agricultureimpact on water quantityand quality

• Land use for energy

• Land use for food


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Fossil energy extraction

Gustaf Olsson



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Oil consumption

02468

101214161820

million barrels/day

m3/person/year


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Source: National Geographic - N. Dakota

Hydraulic fracturing


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Shale gas resources 1012 m3


7

8,1

11

12

15

16

19

20

23

32

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Brazil

Russia

South Africa

Australia

Mexico

Canada

U.S.

Algeria

Argentina

China

World total 207

Gustaf Olsson

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15 – 20,000 m3

of water

Down to 3000 mUp to 100 MpaUp to 265 liters/s

About 750 chemicalslisted as additives



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• The fracking fluid– 80% water– 19% proppant – natural quartz + man made

ceramics– 0.5% chemicals – additives (many toxic) – to

inhibit bacterial growth, minimize friction, increase viscosity

• Volumes (during a life time of a well)– 25,000 – 500,000 m3 water– Up to 2000 tons of proppant– 50+ m3 (or 300+ barrels) of chemicals

Fracking fluid facts

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• Purposes: improve fluid viscosity, inhibit corrosion, and limit bacterial growth

• Contain:known carcinogens and air pollutants, BTEX: benzene, toluene, xylene, ethylbenzene

Harmful effects on the central nervous system

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• Groundwater is sold to the oil companyinstead of being used for irrigation

• Conflict between energy and food!

Fracking often in dry regions

In the Barnett Shale (Texas) drillers paid 0.06 cents/m3

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Risks in fracking (1)

• Cement-casing failures may allow methane and other hazardous chemicals to migrate to water sources and water wells

• Fracking fluid contains known carcinogens and air pollutants - can leak into ground and surface water during the fracking process

• BTEX - benzene, toluene, xylene, ethylbenzene(harmful effects on the central nervous system), have been found in hydraulic fracturing products




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Risks in fracking (2)

Water contamination:• accidental spills during truck transportation• leakages through cracked or corroded cement

casing of the wells• fugitive gas through the rock fractures Wastewater (“produced water”) - serious risks:• 20-40％ will be returned back to the surfaceBringing• chemicals, traces of oil-laced drilling mud,• iron, chromium, salt, • radioactive materials including Radium 226


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0

20

40

60

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100

120

140

160

Crude oil Non-convoil

Coal Gas

40

90

150

4 6

Water consumption per liter or kg

Some sourcesclaim 20 timesmore thancrude oil

Source: World Energy Council, 2010

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Cooling thermal power plants

Gustaf Olsson

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n • Nuclear power plants– Typical temp. increase USA 16.5°C – 1000 MWe requires 33 m3/s– Rule of thumb for 1000 MWe: 25 – 43 m3/s

• Coal fired plants– Typical temp. increase USA 9.5°C– 1000 MWe requires 50 m3/s for T=10°C

Water withdrawal -once-through cooling

*Source: Richard Bozek, Edison Electric Initiative, 2011



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Water consumption in electrical generation

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

liters / kWh

Carbon sequestration for fossilenergy generation will increase waterwithdrawal and consumption with 80%

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HydropowerGustaf Olsson

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Hydropower operation

No other energy source, thermal or renewable,

can start up or change output as quickly as hydro in response to load demands – or can store energy on the same level as hydro to

meet upcoming demand

Potentially sustainable


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699

428376 345

168131 122 92 84 67

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

TWh

Top producers of hydropower (2014)



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Major dams under development 201260% are multi-purpose


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Grand EthiopianRenaissanceDam (GERD)

63 km3

6000 MW

Source: King-Block 2014, J of Wat. and Climate Change


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Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra)

Gustaf Olsson

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480 km long; 16 km wideArea : 6,000 km² Capacity: 150 - 165 km³

The Lake Nasser




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Nile flow at Aswan

Source: Strzepek et al. 2013

1910 1990


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Lake Mead 1971

Hoover Dam 1971El power for 500 000 homes

World Trade Center 1971

Elevation July 2015330 m above seaFull = 372 mLowest since 1937

Volume = 39% of full poolGustaf Olsson

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1000 ft

20151971

1150 ft

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Large dams –impacts to consider

• Hydropower vs. flood control operation– Economy vs. risk

• Flooded area• Water loss – evaporation

– Power per reservoir area unit (MW/km2)– Temperature

• Sedimentation• Water quality

– Public health– Ecology




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• Flooded area– Persons requiring resettlement

• Number of peoples displaced/MW– Cultural property affected– Biomass flooded– Critical natural habitats affected– Floating aquatic vegetation


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Displacement of people/MW

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


1045

13501650

2740

52504214

5100

3147

8502

Area km2

Source: Ledec- Quintero (2003),Gustaf Olsson

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Water loss due to evaporation

• Temperature• Reservoir surface area

– Hectares per megawatt (ha/MW)– Power per area unit (MW/km2)


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Akosombo Dam, Ghana


Akosombo Dam, Ghana8500 km2 - 1180 MW3.6% of Ghana’s land area

Gustaf Olsson



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Evaporation


ha/MW Evaporation mm/year

EvaporationGm3/year liters/kWh

AkosomboGhana 720 2185 19 3000Sobradinho, Brazil 400 2841 12 1430Bayano, Panama 233 2156 0.75 1370Itezhi Tezhi, Zambia 62 2572 0.95 338Robert Bourossa, Canada

36 586 1.7 30

San Carlos, Colombia 0.26 1726 0.01 1

Source: Mekonnen &Hoekstra 2012

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Water use in electrical generation

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

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Impact on water quality

• Temperature increase– Increasing harmful organisms

• Public health – water related diseases• Cooling water downstream• Fish species diversity and endemism• Greenhouse gases• Deterioration of water quality


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Watereconomy

Gustaf Olsson



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Water consumption vs. cost for 200 m3

(104 cities)

Cost

Con

sum

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Source:IWA Statistics

What would happen if the water will have a cost(”opportunity cost”, ”society cost”)?

Gustaf Olsson

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Progressive water tariffs


0 20 40 60 80 100 1200

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

m3 per month

Tarif

f US

$ pe

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Bangalore, India

Dakar, Senegal

Durban, South Africa

Nairobi, Kenya

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Renewable energy

Gustaf Olsson

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Renewables

• The role of hydro• New renewables

– Wind and solar PV

Financial support globally (2012):Renewable energy US$101 billion

Fossil fuel US$544 billion




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Wind power capacity (GW) 2014

91

61

3420 20

0102030405060708090

100

China US Germany Spain India


World total 318 GW

Annual growth 20% in last decade

China 16 GWnuclear

Gustaf Olsson

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Solar PV


1972 cost – 72 US$/W2014 cost – 0.7 US$/W

10 kW – 7000 US$

2008 – 16 GW worldwide2013 – 139 GW 2015 - 240 GW predicted2016 - 300-330 GW pred.

60% annualgrowthrecently

Gustaf Olsson

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Wind power capacity (GW) 2014

91

61

3420 20

0102030405060708090

100

China US Germany Spain India


World total 318 GW

Annual growth 20% in last decade

China 16 GWnuclear

Gustaf Olsson

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Solar PV


1972 cost – 72 US$/W2014 cost – 0.7 US$/W

10 kW – 7000 US$

2008 – 16 GW worldwide2013 – 139 GW 2015 - 240 GW predicted2016 - 300-330 GW pred.

60% annualgrowthrecently

Gustaf Olsson



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Solar PV examples


China

Initial goal 2020 – 20 GWModified goal 2020 – 50 GWMay 2014, goal for 2017 – 70 GW

Australia

2007 : 8000 rooftop solar systems2014 : > 1 million

Gustaf Olsson

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Wind

Solar PV

No cooling water

No air pollution

No water pollution

Power for production?Power payback time?

Water available for other purposes

Gustaf Olsson

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New system structures

• Energy economy is localizing• Water systems will be more

decentralized• Two developments of electric power

– Local generation without a power grid– Local generation connected to a grid

• Controlling the smart power grid• Controlling the smart water grid


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IWA Publishing 2015

[email protected]

Thank you!


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