J. Zlotnicki1), Y. Sasai2), M. Johnston3), T. Nagao2),

F. Fauquet1), P. Yvetot1), G. Vargemezis4), I. Fikos4),

N. Pergola5), R. Singh6), A., Bernard7) and PHIVOLCS EM team8)

1) CNRS-UMR6524-Clermont-Fd Observatory, France;

Email: jacques.zlotnicki@wanadoo.fr

2) Earthquake Prediction Research Center, Tokai University, Shimizu, Japan

3) U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, USA

4) Geophysical Laboratory Aristotle’s University of Thessaloniki, Greece

5) National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, Potenza, Italy

6) School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Schmid College of Science and Technology, Chapman University, Orange, CA, USA

7) Laboratoire de Volcanologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium

8) Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Quezon City, Philippines

8) E. Villarcorte, P. Alanis, J.M. Gordon Jr, L. Bong, P. Reniva, A. Loza

Loic, L.A. C. Banes, R.C. Pigtain, M. Bornas, and R. Solidum

1 CNFGG 2012 Clermont-Ferrand, France

http://www.emsev-iugg.org/emsev/

2

FRAME OF THE PHIVOLCS-EMSEV INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

PHIVOLCS(M. Bornas), JAPAN (Sasai Y., T. Nagao …), FRANCE (Zlotnicki J.), US (Johnston M.J.S., R. Singh)

BELGIUM (Bernard A.) , ITALY (Tramutoli V., Pergola N.), GREECE (Vargemezis G.) : ~20 Researchers and Engineers

Understanding the volcano

• structure and hydrothermal system

• dynamism and eruptive activity

Volcano monitoring

Based on ground observations • Electromagnetic monitoring

• Geochemical studies

• Thermal budgets

• Ground deformation

Based on satellite observations • ASTER thermal imagery

• RST technique (thermal IR anomalies)

• MOPITT

Based on EM real time network

Educating PHIVOLCS EM team

Volcanic hazards, risk mitigation

• Lessons from historical eruptions

• Impacts and precursory phenomena

Education, preparedness, information

• Training (schools)

• Local and regional authorities

• Population (workshops in villages)

• Evacuation planning

Understanding the volcano

• Geology, relation with tectonics

Volcano monitoring

• Real time seismic monitoring

• Geochemical studies

• Ground deformation surveys

• Phenomenology

Building a new scientific community

P

H

I

V

O

L

C

S

E

M

S

V

E

V

W

G

In charge of the prediction

• Issues warning

• Raises alert levels

• Communicates with authorities

E

X

P

E

R

T

I

S

E

33 ERUPTIONS IN THE HISTORICAL TIME

3

China sea

Pacific ocean

PHILIPPINES

….1749 …1911, 1965-1977

Latest eruption : 1965

phreato- magmatic with

base surges

1749 From E. Corpus 1911

4 km

1965

4 km

2010 EVACUATION PLANNING

4

PHASE I – WITHIN THE SEVEN (7) KM DANGER ZONE

INVOLVING THE TAAL VOLCANO ISLAND AND THE SIX LAKE SHORE MUNICIPALITIES

10 000 inhabitants

PHASE II – WITHIN TEN (10) KM RADIUS INVOLVING

ELEVEN (11) LGUs

100 000 inhabitants

PHASE III – WITHIN THE FIFTEEN (15) KM RADIUS

INVOLVING SEVENTEEN (17) LGUs

DEPENDING ON THE WIND DIRECTION

(JANUARY TO AUGUST – SOUTHWESTERN WIND

DIRECTION WHILE SEPTEMBER ONWARD WILL

BE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE PROVINCE)

650 000 inhabitants

After M. Cay / EMSEV Workshop, February 2010

HYDROLOGIC MODEL AND HYDROTHERMAL ACTIVITY

Low-T fumarolic gases interaction of magma vapours with the hydrothermal system

The hydrothermal system is a 3-components system resulting from: incorporation of seawater (Br/Cl) incroporation of magmatic waters (d18O, dD) incorporation of meteoric waters (Lake Taal waters slightly modified)

Hydrothermal system: 12% seawater + 17% volcanic water + 71% meteoric water

SW NE

NE SW SW

NE

5

(After Delmelle et al., 1998, modified by Toutain)

6

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Next

Ground magnetic mapping (TMF)

MCL TMF mapping

SP surveys and mapping, soil degassing, Ground temperature

Bottom MCL temperature

Degassing in MCL

AMT MT ERT

Autonomous magnetic network: TMF

Autonomous electric, 3 comp. magnetic, T° network

Telemeter Electric, T°, Tilt network: 3 stations

Telemeter ERT network

Satellite telemetry AMT-MT TMF network

+ 1

Autonomous monitoring of water level & T° of MCL

Aster thermal imagery

Thermal Infrared activity (MTSAT)

Measurements of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT)

Su

rveys

Map

pin

gs

Lan

d b

ased

Mo

nit

ori

ng

Sate

llit

e

mo

nit

ori

ng

Demeter

RECENT SEISMIC AND SURFACE ACTIVITY

7

Center of

deformation

Bubbling

Geysering

Fumaroles

ACTIVE FISSURES & GEOTHERMAL ACTIVITY ON THE

NORTHERN FLANK

N

Area of ~steady state of surface activity:

Active fissures characterized by

high GTE, CO2 concentration Area of diffuse geothermal activity

reactivated during the 2005-2010

seismic crises

8

SP MAPPING

THERMAL ANOMALIES CO2 DEGASSING AND TMF SURVEYS

Mar. 15, 2007

34.5°C

After A. Bernard

AS

TE

R IM

AG

ER

Y

MCL BOTTOM TEMPERATURE

N Non

magnetic

area

After Harada et al.

TOTAL MAGNETIC FIELD

CO

2 D

EG

AS

SIN

G

After A. Bernard

March 2011

9

ACTIVE FISSURES AND GEOTHERMAL ACTIVITY

Geyser

Fumarole

Mud pond

& Geyser

N

Bulge

10 CO2 degassing

INTERPRETATION OF ERT: NS CROSS SECTION

11 After Fikos et al., 2012

250 m

N S.SE

DEEP MAGNETOTELLURIC SOUNDINGS: 2011-12

Horizontal cross-section across A-A’. Encircled by broken lines (relatively highly

resistive) is the hypothesized hydrothermal reservoir, solid line ellipse encircles a

relatively resistive body acting as a conduit between the hydrothermal reservoir and

the Main Crater. Area between inverted triangles is the approximate horizontal

extent of Main Crater Lake (After P. Alanis et al., in preparation).

1 km

VOLCANO MONITORING CONTINUOUS MONITORING

Multi parameters EMSEV

stations

SP lines, GTE, Grad(GTE),

3 components magnetometers,

TMF, Tiltmeter, Seismometers,

WTE and water level

JICA stations

MT stations,

TMF magnetometers

PAN

DAK

MCL

BOU

Scheduled

in 2012-13

13

2010 SEISMIC CRISIS

14

II: MONITORING TAAL: Multi-parametric monitoring network:

S.P., B, seismicity, tilt, GTE and , Rn, geophone

VEML Web site: http://www.virtual-electromagnetic-laboratory.com/

Taal Buco

observatory PHIVOLCS

SERVER 2 DAILY

TRANSFERS

VEML

SERVER

Internet

PHIVOLCS Routine

Monitoring

CNRS-VEML Analysis

Visualization

Monitoring

DAK

MCL

T

e

l

e

m

e

t

r

y

PAN

14

15

(After Y. Sasai)

nT M

A

G

N

E

T

I

C

E

L

E

C

T

R

I

C

DKT-MUT

MCE-MUT

DAK STATION (NORTHERN FLANK)

Opening of fissures

Release of gas and

thermal anomalies

16

Tilt

Electric

field

Ground

Tempature

Seismic

noise

Inflation

April 29, 2010

POSSIBLE SOURCE MODEL BASED ON TILT VECTORS

After M.J.S. Johnston 17

CURRENT STATE OF THE VOLCANO

Current activity

• The volcanic activity takes

place to the north of the crater

• The hydrothermal activity has

its source below the crater

• The northern part of crater is

mechanically unstable

Apr-Aug 2010 seismo-volcanic crisis:

• A dike could have intruded the northern part of

MC; the source should be at least at 4 km depth,

• The 2005-2010 decrease of surface activity has

partly clogged up the hydrothermal system, and

an increase of the hydrostatic pressure could have

been induced by magma thermal supply,

High risk of phreatic explosion

18

CNR-IMAA AND UNIBAS ACTIVITIES

Continuous monitoring of thermal activity of Taal volcano area by means

of a systematic processing, through RSTVOLC algorithm, of infrared

satellite observations

RSTVOLC

• Selecting historical (i.e. multi-annual) and homogeneous

data-sets of satellite images T(x,y,t) in infrared bands.

• Computing the background “Reference Fields” (x,y) and

(x,y), which are respectively the temporal mean and the

temporal standard deviation of the correspondent signal.

• Identifying possible thermal anomalies by comparing signal

at hands with reference fields

RSTVOLC (Marchese et al. 2011) is a specific configuration of the RST approach (Tramutoli, 2007) tailored to detect and monitor volcanic hot spots. Two local variation indexes (ALICE indexes) are computed to this aim. For RSTVOLC , both the signals TMIR(x,y,t) and TMIR – TIR (x,y,t), respectively representing the brightness temperatures measured at around 3.7µm (MIR) and 11µm (TIR), are considered.

- Marchese, F., M., Filizzola, N.Genzano, T., Mazzeo, G., Pergola, N., Tramutoli, V. (2011). Assessement and improvement of a robust satellite technique (RST) for thermal monitoring of volcanoes. Remote Sensing of Environment, 115, 1556-1563, DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2011.02.014

- Tramutoli, V. (2007). Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) for Natural and Environmental Hazards Monitoring and Mitigation: Theory and Applications”, Proceedings of Multitemp, doi: 10.1109/MULTITEMP.2007.4293057.

ÄTMIR-TIR(x, y, t) =

TMIR-TIR(x, y, t)-mTMIR-TIR(x, y, t)

sTMIR-TIR(x, y, t)

),,(

),,(),,(),,(

tyx

tyxtyxTtyx

MIR

MIR

MIR

T

TMIR

T

ALICE

indexes

y

x

t

EMSEV-PHIVOLCS - OUTCOMES 1

20

Understanding Taal volcanic complex

Two geothermal fields are delineated

They are connected at depth

They constitute the most active part of the volcano, but the highest

activity takes place in the northern part of MC

A bulge exists in MCl along the northern rim, and outcrops at the bottom

of MCL take place within

The alignment of the bubbling areas and thermal anomalies show

segments of fissures in MCL

Hydrothermal fluids cross the northern rim of MC in land, while they do

not reach the eastern border

The northern outer flank of the volcano may collapse into MCL

EMSEV-PHIVOLCS - OUTCOMES 2

General changes of parameters with recent past seismic and surface

activity

Land between MCL and the crater rims is now dry

○ It causes thermal effects, modification of ground fluids pattern

The MC geothermal field can expand to the South (i.e. 2007)

Activity gives rise to larger CO2 fluxes inside the crater as compared to

DAK area

Fissures near DAK may be reactivated with higher temperatures

DAK geothermal field can expand toward the crater rim

But there is not (yet) any larger extension of the geothermal field

21

5 published papers, 3 in preparation, 1 PhD, and tens of communications

Two signed Agreements of cooperation have been signed: 2004, 2010

Two international workshops have been organized at PHIVOLCS: 2003, 2010