employment outlook to november 2019

8/18/2019 Employment Outlook to November 2019

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Employment Outlook toNovember 2019

Based on the Department of Employment’s 2015 employment projections

Table of Content

Introduction.......................................................................................2

Projected employment growth by indutry..........................................!

Projected employment growth by kill level........................................."

Projected employment growth by occup#tion.......................................$

Projected employment growth by t#te #nd territory...........................9

Projected employment growth by region...........................................10

%#ckground #nd methodology...........................................................11

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Introduction

Employment growth in Australia has remained relatively subdued compared with

the robust labour market conditions leading up to the onset of the Global Financial

Crisis. Employment has increased by 7!"#!! $or 7.% per cent& over the 've years

to (une )!%#" well below the growth of %"!*"*!! $or %%.% per cent& recorded over

the 've years to (une )!%!%

. +owever" more recently" employment growth hasimproved" rising by a solid )%,"*!! $or %.* per cent& over the year to (une )!%#.

-ver the past 've years" employment growth in the Australian economy has been

spread across a number of industries and occupational groups" with a handful of

services $particularly +ealth Care and ocial Assistance and /rofessional cienti'c

and Technical ervices& making particularly substantial contributions to

employment growth. That said" employment growth has been o0set by falls in

employment in 1anufacturing $down by #"#!! or 2.! per cent& and Agriculture"

Forestry and Fishing $#3"*!! or %#.% per cent&" while the previous strong

employment growth in 1ining has ended with employment in the industry

declining in recent years.

4ooking ahead" based on the employment forecasts and pro5ections published in

the 6ecember )!%, 1id8ear Economic and Fiscal -utlook $18EF-&" total

employment is pro5ected to increase by %"%22",!! $or %!.! per cent&) over the 've

years to 9ovember )!%* to reach %)"772"#!!. +owever" the distribution of this

growth is pro5ected to vary across industries" occupations" skill levels" states and

territories" and regions. This report outlines the employment outlook across these

categories" based on employment pro5ections produced by the 6epartment of

Employment for the period 9ovember )!%, to 9ovember )!%*.

&igure 1' Employment level( p#t #nd projected growth to November

2019( )utr#li# *+000,

% All employment 'gures used in this analysis are trend series from A: Labour Force Surey!

"ustralia $Catalogue 9o. 2)!).! and 2)*%.!& unless otherwise stated. 4atest available data on

employment by industry and occupation are for 1ay )!%#.

) All employment pro5ections used in this analysis are 6epartment of Employment /ro5ections to

9ovember )!%*.ISSN 2202-6916



Projected employment growth by indutry

-ver the 've years to 9ovember )!%*" employment is pro5ected to increase in %7

of the %* broad industry groups" with declines in employment only pro5ected for

1ining and 1anufacturing. +ealth Care and ocial Assistance is pro5ected to make

the largest contribution to employment growth $up by )#"!!! or %.7 per cent&"

followed by Education and Training $%,)"7!! or %#.2 per cent&" Construction

$%37"*!! or %3.! per cent&" and /rofessional" cienti'c and Technical ervices

$%32"2!! or %,., per cent&. Together" these four industries are pro5ected to provide

more than half of the employment growth to 9ovember )!%*.

:y contrast" against the backdrop of an e;pected peak in capital e;penditure and

the transition of new mines from a construction phase to a less labour intensive

operational phase" employment in 1ining is pro5ected to decline by ,!"7!! $or

%7. per cent& over the 've years to 9ovember )!%*. <n line with the long termstructural change in the labour market and the announced plant closures by ma5or

car manufacturers" employment in 1anufacturing is pro5ected to decline by )2")!!

$or ).* per cent& over this period.

&igure 2' Projected employment growth by indutry - ve ye#r to

November 2019 *+000,

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At the more detailed sector level" Australia=s largest employing industry sector

Caf>s" ?estaurants and Takeaway Food ervices is pro5ected to make the largest

contribution to growth over the 've years to 9ovember )!%* $up by *3"2!! or

%2.* per cent&. The top )! pro5ected growth sectors generally re@ect the

pro5ections at the broader industry level" with sectors in +ealth Care and ocial

Assistance and Education and Training particularly prevalent. Against the backdrop

of the implementation of the 9ational 6isability <nsurance cheme" Australia=sageing population and increased demand for childcare and home based care

services" large increases in employment are pro5ected for +ospitals $up by #3"*!!

or %#.) per cent&" ?esidential Care ervices $,2"7!! or )%.2 per cent& and Child

Care ervices $37.7 per cent or )7.7 per cent&. upported by above average

growth in the school aged population and continuing growth in parttime workers

in the sector and nonteaching sta0" strong growth is pro5ected in chool

Education $up by ##"2!! or %).3 per cent&" Adult" Community and -ther Education

$,!"2!! or )#. per cent& and Tertiary Education $32"#!! or %#.2 per cent&.

?e@ecting the large contribution to employment growth pro5ected for the

Construction industry" strong growth in employment is pro5ected for :uilding

<nstallation ervices $#!",!! or )!.7 per cent& and :uilding Completion ervices

$),"!! or %3.! per cent&.

&igure !' /op 20 indutry ector - r#nked by projected growth to


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"llied #ealth Serices includes 6ental ervices" -ptometry and -ptical 6ispensing" /hysiotherapy

ervices and Chiropractic and -steopathic ervices. B$ther Social "ssistance Serices includes Aged

Care Assistance ervices" 6isabilities Assistance ervices" 8outh elfare ervices and elfare

Counselling ervices.

A number of industry sectors are pro5ected to record a decline in employment over

the 've years to 9ovember )!%*. The largest fall across all sectors is pro5ected for

1otor Dehicle and 1otor Dehicle /art 1anufacturing3

$down by )3"!! or ,7.# percent&" following the announced plant closures by ma5or car manufacturers.

Employment is pro5ected to decline for a number of 1ining related sectors" with

the largest declines pro5ected for 1etal -re 1ining $7"2!! or %3., per cent&" Coal

1ining $7"3!! or %7.% per cent& +eavy and Civil Engineering Construction $2"#!! or

.3 per cent&" -ther 1ining upport ervices, $2",!! or )#.) per cent& and

E;ploration $#"#!! or )).! per cent&. Employment in Central Government

3 1otor Dehicle and 1otor Dehicle /art 1anufacturing includes the manufacture of cars" vans" buses"

trucks" trailers and caravans" as well as motor vehicle engines" bodies" electrical components and

motor vehicle parts not elsewhere classi'ed.

, -ther 1ining upport ervices includes directional drilling and redrilling mining draining and

pumping services and oil and gas 'eld support services.ISSN 2202-6916



Administration is also pro5ected to record one of the largest falls over the period

$,"*!! or ,.2 per cent&.

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Projected employment growth by kill level

The Australian :ureau of tatistics $A:& classi'es occupations according to 've

skill levels commensurate with the following uali'cation$s&#

• kill level % :achelor degree or higher uali'cation

•

kill level ) Advanced 6iploma or 6iploma• kill level 3 Certi'cate <D or <<< $including at least two years onthe5ob

training&

• kill level , Certi'cate << or <<<

• kill level # Certi'cate < or secondary education

The attainment of educational uali'cations remains important given the strong

past and pro5ected growth of higher skilled occupations" as well as the lower

unemployment rates recorded for people with higher uali'cations. -ver the past

few decades" the Australian economy has continued to shift away from lower

skilled 5obs towards a higher skilled" service based economy. 4ooking ahead" the

evolution of the labour market towards higher skilled occupations looks set to

continue over the 've years to 9ovember )!%*" with employment growth

pro5ected to be strongest" in percentage terms" among the two highest skill levels.

This highlights the importance of educational attainment not only for those in the

workforce looking for career advancement" but also for potential 'rst time labour

market entrants looking to improve their employment prospects. Employment for

skill level % occupations is pro5ected to increase strongly by ,22"7!!

$or %3.% per cent& over the 've years to 9ovember )!%*" while skill level ) is also

pro5ected to grow by %32",!! $or %!., per cent&. 1ore subdued growth is pro5ected

for skill level 3 $%,7"%!! or 5ust .3 per cent&" with weak or negative growth

pro5ected for some Automotive and Engineering Trades" and /rinting" Clothing and

ood Trades" as well as for ecretaries and /ersonal Assistants. Employment for

skill level , is pro5ected to increase by )**"!!! $or *.* per cent&" providing lower

skilled opportunities for 5ob seekers" while weaker growth is pro5ected for skill level

# $up by %%7")!! or 2.! per cent&.

&igure ' Projected employment growth to November 2019 *+000,( by

kill level

# /lease note" in some cases relevant work e;perience may be a substitute for formal uali'cations"

or relevant work e;perience andHor onthe5ob training may be reuired in addition to formal

uali'cations and training. ISSN 2202-6916



B<ncludes at least two years onthe5ob training.

Projected employment growth by occup#tion

Employment is pro5ected to increase in all eight of the occupational groups over

the 've years to 9ovember )!%*. <n particular" recent strong employment growth

is pro5ected to continue for /rofessionals $up by 372"3!! or %,.) per cent& and

Community and /ersonal ervice orkers $)!#"#!! or %7.* per cent&. Together"

these two occupational groups are e;pected to account for half of the total growth

in employment over the ne;t 've years. trong growth is also pro5ected for Technicians and Trades orkers $%#*"!! or *.3 per cent&" 1anagers $%,2")!! or

*.# per cent&" and ales orkers $%%!.,!! or %!.! per cent&. Employment of

Clerical and Administrative upport orkers is pro5ected to grow by %)%",!! or

7., per cent" below the all occupations average of %!.! per cent. Employment

growth is pro5ected to be subdued for 1achinery -perators and 6rivers $)#"#!! or

3., per cent& and 4abourers $)%"3!! or %.* per cent&.

&igure ' Projected employment growth by occup#tion#l group - ve

ye#r to November 2019 *+000,

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Figure 2" on the ne;t page" shows the )! detailed occupations that are pro5ected

to contribute the most to employment growth over the 've years to 9ovember

)!%*. General Clerks is pro5ected to record the largest increase in employment

over the 've years of any occupation $up by 7#"2!! or 3!.! per cent&" followed by

ales Assistants $General& $#"3!! or %%.# per cent& and ?egistered 9urses

$,%",!! or %7.* per cent&. Carers and Aides are well represented amongst the top

)! occupations" with strong growth pro5ected for Aged and 6isabled Carers

$)2"%!! or %.# per cent&" Child Carers $))"!! or %7.# per cent& and Education

Aides $)!"*!! or )*.% per cent&.

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&igure "' /op 20 occup#tion *kill level, - r#nked by projected growth to


ecretaries is pro5ected to record the largest decline in employment $%%",!! or

)).3 per cent&. -verall" the ma5ority of the occupations pro5ected to decline fall

within the lowest skill levels" with eight of the bottom %! occupations either skill

level , or # $for e;ample 6rillers" 1iners and hot Firers" /roduct Assemblers"

/ackers and Crop Farm orkers&" and 5ust one occupation from the bottom %!being skill level % $Engineering 1anagers&.

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Projected employment growth by t#te #ndterritory

-ver the 've years to 9ovember )!%*" employment is pro5ected to increase in all

states and territories.

Against the backdrop of an e;pected decrease in 1ining investment" employmentgrowth in estern Australia and the 9orthern Territory is e;pected to slow from

the rates recorded over the past 've years. That said" employment growth is

nonetheless e;pected to remain comparatively strong" with employment pro5ected

to increase by %#"%!! $or %%.# per cent& in the 9orthern Territory and %,"!! $or

%!.7 per cent& in estern Australia over the 've years to 9ovember )!%*.

9ew outh ales" Dictoria and Iueensland are also pro5ected to make large

contributions to employment growth over the 've years to 9ovember )!%*" with

employment pro5ected to increase by 3#"!! $or *.* per cent& in 9ew outh

ales" by 3!"7!! $or %!.2 per cent& in Dictoria and by ),3"2!! $or %!., per cent&

in Iueensland.

Employment growth is pro5ected to be more subdued in outh Australia $#3"!! or

2.7 per cent& and Tasmania $up by %7"!! or 7., per cent& over the 've years to

9ovember )!%*" in line with the persistence of soft labour market conditions in

these states. The Australian Capital Territory $up by %*"*!! or *.3 per cent& is also

pro5ected to record a below average rate of growth" constrained by a pro5ected

slower rate of growth in /ublic Administration and afety.

&igure $' Projected employment growth by t#te3territory - ve ye#r to


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Projected employment growth by region

Employment is pro5ected to increase in all of the A: A, ?egions over the 've

years to 9ovember )!%*. Employment in metropolitan areas is pro5ected to

increase by %!.7 per cent over the period" compared with .# per cent pro5ected

for regional Australia. -f the metropolitan areas" employment growth is pro5ected

to be strongest in 6arwin $up by %!"!!! or %).2 per cent& and Greater /erth$%3!"%!! or %).! per cent&" while below average growth is pro5ected for Greater

Adelaide $,)"2!! or 2. per cent& and Greater +obart $"2!! or .% per cent&. -f

the regional areas" employment growth is pro5ected to be strongest in regional

Iueensland $%%#"!! or *. per cent& and 9orthern Territory J -utback $#"!!! or

*.7 per cent&" 5ust below the national average of %!.! per cent. <n contrast to the

strong growth pro5ected for Greater /erth" employment growth is pro5ected to be

weakest in ?egional estern Australia $%"7!! or 2.) per cent&" followed by

?egional outh Australia $%%")!! or 2., per cent&.

At the more detailed regional level" employment growth is pro5ected to be

strongest $in percentage terms& in ydney City and <nner outh $up by )7"#!! or

%#.) per cent& and Gold Coast in Iueensland $,#"!!! or %#.# per cent&" while the

largest pro5ected increases in employment $in thousands& are for

1elbourne Jest $,*"*!! or %3. per cent& and 1elbourne J outh East $,2"!!! or

%3.# per cent&. :y contrast" employment growth is pro5ected to be slowest" in

percentage terms" in Iueensland J -utback $%"%!! or ).) per cent&" estern

Australia heat :elt $3"!!! or ,.# per cent&" and Dictoria J 9orth est $3"7!! or

,.* per cent&.

&igure 4' Projected employment growth by region - ve ye#r to

November 2019 *5,

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%#ckground #nd methodology

Each year" the 6epartment of Employment produces employment pro5ections by

industry" occupation" skill level and region for the following 've years" the latest

being the 've years to 9ovember )!%*. These pro5ections are designed to provide

a guide to the future direction of the labour market. +owever" like all such

e;ercises" they are sub5ect to an inherent degree of uncertainty. hile all e0orts

have been made to ensure these pro5ections are as accurate as possible" due to

the volatile nature of the data and the large number of very small series" caution

should be e;ercised when using these pro5ections.

The pro5ections have been derived from best practice time series models that

summarise the information that is in a time series and convert it into a forecast.

The pro5ections are made by combining forecasts from autoregressive integrated

moving average $A?<1A& and e;ponential smoothing with damped trend $E6T&

models" with some ad5ustments made to take account of research undertaken by

the 6epartment of Employment and known future regional and industry

developments. These pro5ections are produced using detailed data from the

Australian :ureau of tatistics $A:& 4abour Force urvey" and do not re@ect

labour market developments since 9ovember )!%," the month of data upon whichthe pro5ections are based. The pro5ection for total employment growth is

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consistent with the Government=s forecasts and pro5ections for total employment

growth" as published in the latest 1id8ear Economic and Fiscal -utlook $18EF-&.

The pro5ections for total employment by state and territory are not directly

comparable with the forecasts and pro5ections published in state and territory

budgets" which typically have shorter forecast horiKons and di0erent base periods.

The 6epartment of Employment=s pro5ections are also medium term and pointin

time pro5ections" and are thus not indicative of e;pected employment growth inthe short term.

Further information on 6epartment of Employment=s pro5ections" including

downloadable spreadsheets" can be found at httpHHlmip.gov.auHdefault.asp;L

41</HEmployment/ro5ections

Additional labour market information can be obtained from the following links

• (ob -utlook $ 5oboutlook.gov.au&

• 4abour 1arket <nformation /ortal $41</& $httpHHlmip.gov.au&

• Australian (obs

$httpHHdocs.employment.gov.auHsystemH'lesHdocHotherHaustralianM5obsM)!%#

.pdf &

For further information" please contact Carmel -=?egan $!) 2),! )#**& or email

c#rmel.oreg#n6employment.gov.#u. Any media enuiries should be directed

to the 6epartment of Employment media unit $medi#6employment.gov.#u&.

4abour 1arket ?esearch and Analysis :ranch

6epartment of Employment

August )!%#

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http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/EmploymentProjections


http://joboutlook.gov.au/

http://lmip.gov.au/

http://docs.employment.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/australian_jobs_2015.pdf




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employment outlook to november 2019

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