employment outlook: 2000-2010

Employment Outlook: 2000-2010

National employment projections

http://www.bls.gov/emp

State projections

http://almis.dws.state.ut.us/occ/projhome.asp


Labor force

• Economic growth

• Industry employment

• Occupational employment

Number of live births, 1920-2000

0

1

2

3

4

5

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Babyboomers

Millions

Population growth rates

1.41.7

1.31.0 0.9

1.2

0.6

1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000

2000-2010

Annual rates of change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

projected

Growth rates of the civilian labor force, ages 16 and older

1.1

1.7

2.6

1.6

1.1 1.1

1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 2000-2010

Annual rates of change


projected

Population, projected 2010

MillionsMen Women

12 121010 868 6 44 22 0 0

85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-5940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Age

Source: Bureau of the Census

Women’s labor force participation rates will continue to rise


Percent, 1950-2000 and projected 2000-2010

8673

34

62

0

20

40

60

80

100

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total

Men

Women

Labor force growth rates of minorities will outpace that of whites

37 36

17

6

12

Asian andother, non-Hispanic

Hispanic, anyrace

Black, non-Hispanic

White, non-Hispanic

Total

Percent change, projected 2000-2010



• Labor forceEconomic growth

• Industry employment


The 2000-2010 projections assume a 3.4 percent real GDP growth rate


Percent

4.04.4

3.23.0

3.4 3.4

1949-59 1959-69 1969-79 1979-89 1989-2000 2000-2010projected


Percent

2.9 2.8

1.9

1.4

2.22.4

1949-59 1959-69 1969-79 1979-89 1989-2000 2000-2010

The 2000-2010 projections assume a 2.4 percent labor productivity growth rate

projected

Annualized growth rates in productivity during recessions


Percent

0.6

1.10.8

2.7

0.2 -1.2 -0.2 -0.6

2.3

1953-54 1957-58 1960-61 1969-70 1973-75

1980

1981-82

1990-91

2001


Percent

5.5

3.5

5.85.3

4.0 4.0

1959 1969 1979 1989 2000 2010,

The 2000-2010 projections assume a 4 percent unemployment rate

assumed

67 68 69

-9-17

-26

9 1219 14

19 23 21 17 15

1990 2000 2010

Gross Private Domestic Investment expenditures increased as a share of GDP during the 1990s

PCE

Imports

Exports Investment Government


Percent

2

16

29

5

1215

1990 2000 2010, projected

Computer equipment’s and software’s rising share of Gross Private Domestic Investment

Computer equipment Software


Percent


• Labor force

• Economic growthIndustry employment



212

910

920

1,162

1,222

1,278

1,806

3,032

4,601

Mining

Construction

Wholesale trade

Government

Retail trade

Transportation

Finance, insurance, and real estate

Services

Manufacturing

Manufacturing and services accounted for nearly half of total output in 2000

Billions of chained 1996 dollars

Service ProducingGoods Producing


543

6,698

7,019

7,024

7,560

18,469

20,680

23,307

39,340

Mining

Construction

Transportation

Wholesale trade


Manufacturing

Government

Retail Trade

Services


Services and retail trade accounted for 43 percent of jobs in 2000

Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs in 2000

Output and employment shares of goods-producing industries, 2000

0.4 1.34.6 5.6

12.7

28.4

17.7

35.4

Mining Construction Manufacturing Total goodsproducing

Employment share Output share

Percent


Output and employment shares of service-producing industries, 2000

4.87.9

4.85.7

5.211.2

14.27.2

16.07.6

27.018.7

72.158.2

Transportation

Wholesale trade


Government

Retail Trade

Services

Total service producing

Output share

Employment share


Percent

-55

577

825

687

776

1,255

1,757

3,093

12,893

Mining

Manufacturing

Construction

Finance

Wholesale trade

Transportation and utilities

Government

Retail trade

Services

Services and retail trade account for most job growth


Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs, projected 2000-2010


Projected 2000-2010 employment growth in services is concentrated


Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs

Engineering and management

services

Total: 12,893

Social services

All other services

Health services

Business services

5,064

1,2601,225

2,505

2,838


• Labor force

• Economic growth

• Industry employmentOccupational employment

Professional and related occupations had the most jobs in 2000


Millions of jobs

1

6

7

10

13

16

16

24

26

27

Farming, fishing, and forestry

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Construction and extraction

Transportation and material moving

Production

Sales and related

Management, business, and financial

Office and administrative support

Service

Professional and related

All major occupational groups are projected to increase

15

4

6

9

11

12

13

14

15

20

26

Total, all occupations

Farming, fishing, and forestry

Production

Office and administrative support

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Sales and related

Construction and extraction

Management, business, and financial

Transportation and material moving

Service

Professional and related



Eight of the fastest growing occupations are computer-related



57

60

62

66

67

77

82

90

97

Computer software engineers, applications

Computer support specialists

Computer software engineers, systems software

Network and computer systems administrators

Network systems and data communications analysts

Desktop publishers

Database administrators

Personal and home care aides

Computer systems analysts

Medical assistants

100

Occupations with the most job growth are large or rapidly growing

364

380

391

430

474

490

510

561

631

673Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food

Security guards

Computer software engineers, applications

Customer service representatives

Registered nurses

Retail salespersons

Computer support specialists

Cashiers, except gaming

Office clerks, general

Waiters and waitresses


Numerical change in thousands, projected 2000-2010

Large

Rapidly growing

A focus on IT workers and high-tech industries

BLS estimates there were 3.3 million IT workers in 2000 using the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification System

- Computer and information systems managers

- Computer specialists- Computer programmers- Computer scientists and systems analysts- Computer software engineers- Database administrators- Computer support specialists- Network and computer systems administrators- Network systems and data communications analysts- All other computer specialists

- Computer hardware engineers

IT occupations — managerial

OccupationEmployment,

2000(thousands)1

Employment, 2010

(thousands)1

Percent change, 2000-10

Annual earnings,

20002

Total, all occupations 145,594 167,754 15.2 $33,090

Management, business, and financial occupations 15,519 17,635 13.6 61,890

Management occupations 10,564 11,834 12.0 68,190

Computer andinformationsystems managers

313 463 47.9 80,250

1Includes wage & salary, self-employed, and unpaid family workers.

2Based on OES occupational employment data for wage and salary workers.


IT occupations — professional and related

OccupationEmployment

2000(thousands)1

Employment2010

(thousands)1

Percent change 2000-10

Annual earnings

20002


Professional and related occupations 26,758 33,709 26.0 45,990

Computer programmers 585 680 16.2 60,970

Computer and information scientists, research 28 39 40.3 73,430

Computer systems analysts 431 689 59.8 61,210

Computer software engineers, applications 380 760 100.0 70,300

Computer software engineers, systems software 317 601 89.8 70,890

1Includes wage & salary, self-employed, and unpaid family workers.2Based on OES occupational employment data for wage and salary workers.


IT occupations — professional and related

OccupationEmployment,

2000(thousands)1

Employment, 2010

(thousands)1

Percent change, 2000-10

Annual earnings,

20002



Computer support specialists 506 996 97.0 39,680

Database administrators 106 176 65.9 55,810

Network and computer systems administrators 229 416 81.9 53,690

Network systems and datacommunications analysts 119 211 77.5 57,890

All other computer specialists 203 326 60.7 ─ ─

1Includes wage & salary, self-employed and unpaid family workers.



IT occupations — professional and related (cont.)

OccupationEmployment

2000

(thousands)1

Employment2010

(thousands)1

Percent change 2000-10

Annual earnings

20002



Engineers 1,465 1,603 9.4 ─ ─

Computer hardware engineers 60 75 24.9 70,100

1Includes wage & salary workers, self-employed, and unpaid family workers



IT employment estimates differ substantially across different studies

• Information Technology Association of American (ITAA)

• U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration (ESA) Office of Technology Policy (OTP)

• Current Population Survey (CPS)

Information Technology Association of America (ITAA)

• ITAA defines an IT worker according to the eight career clusters established by the National Workforce Center for Emerging Technologies (NWCET).

Database administration and development Digital media Enterprise systems analysis and integration Network design and administration Programming/Software engineering Technical support Technical writing Web development and administration

Information Technology Association of America (ITAA)

ITAA estimates of IT employment:

10.4 million IT workers in 2001

9.9 million IT workers in early 2002

ITAA and OEP categories

ITAA occupation

ITAA employment 2002

SOC occupation

OEP employment 2000

Database administration and development

960,626 Database administrators

106,000

Enterprise Systems Analysis and Integration

1,086,020 Computer Systems Analysts

431,000

Technical support

1,751,552 Computer support specialists

506,000


ITAA occupation ITAA employment

2002

SOC occupation OEP employment 2000

Network Design and Administration

733,473 Network and Computer Systems Administrators

229,000

Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts

119,000

Total 733,473 Total 348,000


ITAA occupation ITAA employment 2002

SOC occupation OEP employment

2000

Programming/

Software Engineering

2,039,880 Computer and Information Scientists, Research

28,000

Computer Programmers

585,000

Computer Software Engineers, Applications

380,000

Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software

317,000

Total 2,039,880 Total 1,310,000


ITAA occupation ITAA employment 2002

SOC occupation OEP employment 2000

Technical Writing 530,437 Computer and Information Systems Managers

313,000

Web Development and Administration

837,917 Computer Hardware Engineers

60,000

Digital Media 655,988

Other 1,300,023 All other Computer Specialists

203,000

Total 3,324,365 Total 1,310,000

U.S. Department of Commerce (Economics and Statistics Administration)

• ESA defines IT workers as those who design, manufacture, operate, repair, and maintain the IT infrastructure that facilitates e-commerce and other Internet or network-related activities.

• The ESA divided the IT workforce into two partially overlapping groups—

workers in IT-producing industries workers in IT occupations.


• Workers in IT-producing industries include all occupations, (i.e. sales, marketing, and financial services), in addition to workers in IT occupations.

• IT-producing industries consist of four major segments: hardware, software and related computer services, communications equipment, and communications services.


• Workers in IT occupations design, manufacture, operate, maintain, and repair IT products and provide related services across all industries, not just in IT producing industries.

• The Economics and Statistics Administration selected 30 IT-related jobs from Bureau of Labor Statistics/OES job classification.


2000 ESA estimates:

5.6 million – size of workforce in IT industries

6.7 millions workers in IT related occupations

U.S. Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy)

• Defines the core IT workforce as:– computer engineers, – system analysts, – computer programmers, – database administrators, – computer support specialists– all other computer scientists.

• Based on pre-2000 SOC BLS/OES job classifications.• 2.2 million IT workers in 1998

699585Computer programmers

1,797459Total

---431Computer systems analysts

---28Computer and information scientists, research

CPS Employment, 2000

(thousands)

OEP Employment, 2000

(thousands)Occupation


Current Population Survey

High technology defined

• Industries are considered high tech if employment in R&D and in all technology-oriented occupations accounted for a proportion of employment that was at least twice the average for all industries in the Bureau’s Occupational Employment Statistics survey.

High technology defined (cont.)

• Twenty-nine industries, 25 in manufacturing and 4 in the services division, met both criteria. These industries have at least 6 R&D and 76 total technology-oriented workers per thousand workers.

• A subset of 10 high-tech industries, those with both ratios at least 5 times the average, is referred to as high-tech intensive industries. These industries have at least 15 R&D and 190 total technology-oriented workers per thousand workers.

High technology defined (cont.)

• High tech intensive industries include computers and other electronics-based industries, aerospace, research laboratories, and drug manufacturing.

• Other high-tech industries are machinery and motor vehicle manufacturing, chemicals, engineering services, and management consulting.

High-tech employment

6.3

2.8

5.9

4.8

6.3

7.7

1990 2000 2010

ServicesManufacturing

Millions of wage and salary jobs


9.1

10.7

14.0

High-tech employment

19 20

30

17

1990-2000 2000-2010,

High tech Total, all industries


Wage and salary jobs, percent change

projected

High-tech employment as a percent of total employment

8.3 8.29.1

4.3 4.35.2

High tech High tech intensive

199020002010, projected

Wage and salary jobs


High-tech services employment

171

78

44

86

58

33

1990-2000 2000-2010,

Computer and data processing services

High-tech services

All services


Percent change

projected

-6 -3

6 3

High-tech manufacturingAll manufacturing

High-tech manufacturing employment


Percent change

1990-2000

2000-2010, projected

-41

-3

12

3

High-tech, highly defense-relatedAll manufacturing

High-tech, highly defense-related industry employment


Percent change

1990-2000


-18

-3 -3

3

Computer and office equipmentAll manufacturing

Computer and office equipment manufacturing employment


Percent change

1990-2000


Computer and office equipment manufacturing output

1278

42

297

37

1990-2000 2000-2010,

Computer and office equipmentmanufacturing

Total, all industries


Percent change

projected

IT employment

1,517

1,759

2,879

2,550

2000 2010

Non-high tech industries

High tech industries

Total: 3,276

Total: 5,429

Thousands of jobs


High-tech industries with the most IT jobs

IndustryEmployment

2000(thousands)

Employment, 2010

(thousands)

Percent change

2000-10

Computer and data processing services 1,064 2,221 109

Computer and office equipment 95 114 19

Management and public relations 72 124 73

Engineering and architectural services 61 102 67

Research and testing services 49 82 65


Non-high-tech industries with the most IT jobs


IndustryEmployment,

2000(thousands)

Employment, 2010

(thousands)

Percent change

2000-10

Wholesale trade, other 190 264 39

Education, public and private 140 202 44

Commercial banks, savings institutions, and credit unions 117 155 33

State government, except education and hospitals 72 99 39

Telephone communications 71 110 53


One critical aspect of the analysis of occupational employment trends are the education and training requirements of jobs.

The context for any discussion of education is the remarkable trend since the late 1970s in the growing gap between those with more and those with less education

The widening spread of the distribution of real earnings of full-time wage and salary workers

$267

$1,137

$279

$1,265

1989 2000

10th 90th


Total, 1989 and 2000

Those with more education have gained relative to those with less education since 1979

0.971.28 1.39

1.99

Ratio of some college tohigh school or less

Ratio of college to highschool or less

1989 2000


Total

Change in real 2000 CPI-U median weekly earnings by educational attainment, usual full-time workers, 1992-2000

Percent

-5.9

3.2 2.9

-0.3 -0.2

6.15.2


Less than high school

High school

Some college, no

degree

Associates degree,

vocational

Associates degree,

educational

Bachelor’s degree

Advanced degree

Change in employment by educational attainment, full-time wage and salary workers, 1992-2000

6.9 5.0

19.9

31.4

51.8

33.630.8

Less thanhigh school

High school Somecollege, no

degree

Associate'sdegree,

vocational

Associate'sdegree,

educational

Bachelor'sdegree

Advanceddegree

Percent


Web sites

• Occupational Outlook Handbook http://www.bls.gov/oco/

• Career Guide to Industrieshttp://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/

• Occupational Outlook Quarterlyhttp://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm

employment outlook: 2000-2010

Documents

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