employment and commercial review workshop (part 1) planning...tire) $69.40 5.7% $60.0 86.5%...

1

Employment and Commercial

Review Workshop (Part 1)

Commercial Land Demand and Supply

Analysis

2

Overview

• Macro-Demographics Trends

• Commercial Market Demand

• Commercial Supply

• Key Issues, Opportunities, and Preliminary

Directions

3

MACRO-DEMOGRAPHIC

TRENDS

4

Macro Economic Trends

• Provincial economic growth has

been relatively modest since the

global economic downturn of

2008/09

• Provincial/GTHA economy shifting

from goods-producing sectors to the

service sector

• Structural changes have created

challenges/ opportunities regarding

the role of employment lands

5

GTHA Overview

• GTHA is one of the largest and fastest growing Cities/Regions in North America

• Strong and diverse “export-based” economy well represented by a number of major industry clusters

• Office development activity in the GTHA has been relatively strong though there has been a significant shift from “905” to downtown Toronto

• Market for employment lands continues to move west

6

Oakville Growth Outlook within

GTHA Context• Halton Region is anticipated to be the fastest

growing upper/single tier municipality in the GTHA over the next 30 years

• Oakville is well positioned geographically to accommodate a diverse mix of non-residential development driven by:

– proximity to surrounding employment markets

– access to transportation infrastructure

– growing skilled labour force

– competitive business environment

– ample employment land supply

– high quality of life

7

Growth Forecast Methodology

• How does population growth impact demand for

commercial, institutional and employment lands?

– Community-based industries (e.g. retail commercial, personal

service uses, schools and government services) – directly tied to

population growth

– Export-based industries (e.g. industrial and office) - tend to be

driven by broader economic/market conditions as well as

regional/local attributes. For these industries, employment growth

is not typically driven by the local population

8

Employment Growth

Forecasts

Town of Oakville Population Forecast

2031: 246,400 (Halton Best Planning Estimates)

2041: 265,000 (Watson & Associates)

9

COMMERCIAL MARKET

DEMAND

10

Consumer Surveys

• The in-home consumer telephone

surveys, on-street interviews and

license plate surveys were

complete in December 2014

• Received survey results for over

5,000 surveys

• Have analysed responses and

incorporated into the analysis

• Represents a snapshot in time

11

2014 Resident’s Spending Trends

(Food)

Major Retail Category

Resident Expenditure

Potential Distribution

Local Capture

Share

Supermarket $390.20 88.1% $357.3 91.6%

Other Food $52.50 11.9% $44.8 85.3%

Oakville Total $442.70 100.0% $402.1 90.8%

Values stated in million dollars annually

12

2014 Resident’s Spending Trends

(Non-Food)

Major Retail Category

Resident

Expenditure

Potential Distribution

Local Capture

Share

Department Stores $185.50 15.1% $154.4 83.2%

Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores $151.10 12.3% $112.8 74.7%

Home & Automotive Supply (e.g Canadian

Tire) $69.40 5.7% $60.0 86.5%

Warehouse Membership Clubs (e.g. Costco) $117.90 9.6% $0.0 0.0%

General Merchandise $26.80 2.2% $18.5 69.0%

Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores $184.10 15.0% $166.3 90.3%

Other Select Retail (e.g. Furniture, Clothing,

Miscellaneous) $490.30 40.0% $273.7 55.8%

Oakville Total $1,225.10 100.0% $785.7 64.1%

Values stated in million dollars annually

13

NORTHWEST

ZONE

NORTHEAST

ZONE

SOUTH ZONE

13 18

15

14

12

2119

11 16

5 74

8

10

9

10

3

6 1

2

17

20

Residential Retail

Regional Commercial Node

Community Node

Downtowns

Employment Areas

Retail Nodes

14

Existing Retail Inventory Summary

Retail Space By Major Category Inventory Base, 2014 (sq. ft.)

Sub-Total Non-Food Retail 3,775,900

Sub-Total Food Retail 1,000,400

Other Retail & Service 3,758,700

Vacant Space 378,900

Total Existing Space (including

Vacant)

8,913,900

The Town's current retail inventory is equivalent to approximately

47.8 sq. ft. per capita.

15

NORTHWEST

ZONE

NORTHEAST

ZONE

SOUTH ZONE

15

Existing Supermarkets

1

16

6

11

18

7

12

2

14

4

10

13

59

17

83

Metro Related

Loblaws Related

Sobeys Related

Longos Related

Other Related

Discount Store

Full Service Store

16

NORTHWEST

ZONE

NORTHEAST

ZONE

SOUTH ZONE

Existing Department Stores

17

NORTHWEST

ZONE

NORTHEAST

ZONE

SOUTH ZONE

Existing Building and Home Supply

18

NORTHWEST

ZONE

NORTHEAST

ZONE

SOUTH ZONE

Existing Canadian Tires

19

Retail Space DemandRetail Space By Major Category 2041 Additional Space % Growth over 2014

Department Store 260,000 48%

Building & Outdoor Home Supply 193,000 32%

Canadian Tire 109,000 44%

Warehouse Membership Club (e.g. Costco) 140,000 100%

Other General Merchandise 44,000 69%

Drug & Cosmetics 153,000 53%

Other Non-Food Retail (Clothing, Furniture, Automotive,

Miscellaneous)

603,000 30%

Sub-Total Non-Food Retail 1,502,000 40%

Supermarket 282,000 35%

Other Food 75,000 37%

Sub-Total Food Retail 357,000 57%

Other Retail & Service 1,420,000 38%

Vacant Space Contingency (assumed 5%) 243,000 64%

TOTAL 3,522,000 40%

20

Commercial Land Demand

Estimate of Warranted New Space Land Requirements (Acres) 2021 2031 2041

Coverage ratio 25% 127 268 323




Estimate of Warranted New Space Land Requirements (HA) 2021 2031 2041





21

COMMERCIAL SUPPLY

24

Vacant Commercial Land Supply

South Oakville

• Total of 20 ha. vacant

• 32 sites identified:

– 25 sites < 0.5 ha.

– 2 sites between 0.5 – 1.0 ha.

– 4 sites between 1 and 2 ha.

– 1 site approximately 7 ha.

25

Oakville’s Commercial Lands

Confidential, for discussion purposes

only.

26

Vacant Commercial Land Supply

• Maximum permitted commercial in North

Oakville

Area Max. total retail space permitted (s.m.)

Trafalgar Urban Core Area 93,000

Dundas Urban Core Area 32,000

• Service commercial space is not limited

Neyagawa Urban Core Area 31,000

• Service commercial space is not limited

Palermo Village North Urban Core

Area

7,000

27

Commercial Supply Assumptions

* less existing built commercial (14,000 s.m.) at Dundas and Neyagawa

Area Space (sq.m.)

Trafalgar Urban Core Area 93,000 retail and service

Dundas Urban Core Area 32,000 retail

21,000 service

-14,000* built

Neyagawa Urban Core Area 31,000 retail

21,000 service

Palermo Village North Urban Core

Area

7,000 retail

Potential on vacant land south

Oakville

60,000 retail

Total 251,000

28

• Current Trafalgar Urban Core Policy allows additional retail space

subject to market study so shortfall could be less

Commercial Supply versus Demand

Space (sq.m.)

Warranted Demand 325,000

Opportunity on Commercial Lands 251,000

Opportunity on Employment

Lands

(assume 20% of demand)

72,100

Shortfall 1,900

29

Issues / Challenges

• Assumes 100% build out of vacant lands in South Oakville

– Difficult to achieve because of # of small sites

• Assumes North Oakville builders will build commercial

• Requires a major regional centre in North Oakville

• Requires a number of grocery store anchored centres in

North Oakville

• Assumes continued trend of 20% commercial on

employment lands

30

KEY ISSUES,

OPPORTUNITIES, AND

PRELIMINARY DIRECTIONS

31

Key Issues Details Preliminary Direction

The vacant commercial supply is unbalancedThere is an unbalanced supply of commercial

lands in the north and south areas.

Direction #2: Encourage provision of

commercial in Northwest Zone

Direction #4: Implement policy definition

to ensure commercial uses are

developed in North Oakville

The current policy framework permits

commercial but does not guarantee

commercial will be built

Current policy in North Oakville permits retail in

mixed use forms directed to the Urban Core

Areas

There are currently no applications for

commercial uses in the Trafalgar Urban Core

or Neyagawa Urban Core

The assumption that North Oakville will be built

to maximum floor space permitted may not be

realistic

Direction #4: Implement policy definition

to ensure commercial uses are

developed in North Oakville

Assumptions of 100% build out of vacant

commercial lands may not be realistic

It is difficult to achieve 100% build out, as a

number of the vacant supply sites are very

small in south Oakville.

Direction #5: Develop a monitoring

program

Current policy permits limited retail and service

commercial uses in employment designated

areas

Currently 20% of the commercial uses in

Oakville are located on employment

designated lands.

Direction in Employment Lands Review

(allow for a broader range of amenities

within employment areas)

32

Key Opportunities Details Preliminary Direction

Estimated demand will support significant

commercial investment

The projected population growth in North

Oakville is intended to support demand for a

number of local retail centres and a major retail

centre in North Oakville

N/A

There are opportunities to increase standards

to promote attractive and pedestrian friendly

commercial areas

With the anticipated demand and investment,

there is an opportunity to review the Town's

design standards related to promoting

attractive and pedestrian friendly commercial

areas to ensure new investment is made in

quality commercial forms.

Direction #1: Strengthen design policies

for mixed use and commercial

development

There are opportunities for intensification and

redevelopment

While most of the land in the south portion of

Oakville is built-out, there are a number of

opportunities for intensification and infill within

the occupied commercial lands

Direction #3: Promote intensification and

redevelopment of existing built up

commercial areas

There are opportunities for and strong policy

support of mixed use development

Mixed use built forms can improve the public

realm and provide amenities, while supporting

sustainable urban environments

Direction #1: Strengthen design policies

for mixed use and commercial

development

Shopping habits are changing

Opportunity to consider new built forms. This

will allow Oakville to continue to be successful

within an ever-evolving regional marketplace

Direction #5: Develop a monitoring

program

employment and commercial review workshop (part 1) planning...tire) $69.40 5.7% $60.0 86.5%...

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