eThekwini on the Edge?

A short discussion document

Second draft prepared by the City Planning Commission (4/5/2015)

This short discussion document has been prepared by the new City Planning Commission for greater Durban. The purpose is to stimulate discussion and debate about the situation facing the city-region, now and into the future. It is a selective assessment intended to start the process of formulating a long-term plan. It does not set out to be comprehensive or definitive. The audience is all role players with an interest in the region - not simply the eThekwini Municipality. In reading the document, please think about whether it adequately captures the key challenges and opportunities facing the metropolitan area.

Introduction

The greater Durban city-region1 faces big uncertainties about the future. Severe hardship and conspicuous inequality fuel social discontent and unrest. Intensified international competition is squeezing the economy, causing high unemployment, strained household finances and tight municipal budgets. eThekwini municipality is struggling to keep up with the demand for housing and free basic services, making it increasingly difficult to ration provision. Electricity failures and looming water shortages add to the general sense of anxiety and hamper private investment, which is vital for jobs and living standards. The inherited pattern of fragmented urban development continues, making it harder to narrow the gaps between where people live, work, study and socialise. People are forced to travel further than ever, using an unreliable and obsolete transport system. Fifteen years on from the creation of eThekwini metro, many ordinary citizens feel that civic leaders are too detached from their everyday struggles for a better life. People worry about their prospects and feel that the energy and wealth of the city may be shifting irrevocably to the north, just beyond their grasp.

Perched on the edge of complex challenges and choices, greater Durban cannot continue along its current fragile trajectory. Following the path of business-as-usual runs the risk of entering a cycle of decline where the pressures and problems begin to reinforce each other. All kinds of social, infrastructural and ecological systems could suffer under intensified stress. The recent outbreaks of xenophobia illustrate the serious repercussions for Durban’s image, stability and ultimate prosperity from the collective failure to build a more inclusive and tolerant community. Durban is not unique of course. Experience the world over tells us that communities whose hopes and livelihoods are threatened become more introspective and nationalistic. It is hard for individuals and organisations alike to make long-term plans and commit to investing in the city in a context of economic distress and a fractured social

1 Throughout this document, the word ‘city’ or ‘city-region’ refers broadly to the territory of eThekwini along with all its public and private sector institutions and civil society. The word ‘municipality’ or ‘metro’ refers specifically to the eThekwini local authority.

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fabric. A collective effort is required to envision a more promising future and to galvanise the broader Durban community to get behind it.

Fortunately, Durban has core strengths and a proven record of successful delivery. There is renewed support from national government for it to grasp the nettle of urban transformation and engage in bold experimentation. Echoing the National Development Plan, the Minister of Finance recently called on cities to step up a gear and perform the role as engines of prosperity. This is consistent with contemporary global thinking, which sees cities as pivotal to national economic growth, social progress and environmental resilience. In his 2015 Budget speech, Minister Nene said: “realising the economic dividends of urban growth requires a new approach to providing infrastructure, housing and public transport services, while overcoming the spatial divisions of apartheid”. National government is offering city authorities a new relationship to unlock the potential of urban areas through increased investment in infrastructure and stronger partnerships with the private sector. The Cabinet-approved Integrated Urban Development Framework specifically encourages municipalities to lift their game and establish long-term growth and development strategies.

Can eThekwini’s various institutions rise to these challenges? The following table indicates that the city’s position has slipped relative to other SA cities since 2001. Major organisations and interest groups face difficult decisions in turning around the city’s fortunes and charting a new pathway towards progress. Different stakeholders within and outside the Municipality will need to move beyond their own short-term concerns and work together in the long-term interests of the region and its people. Can these agencies and actors stop pulling in different directions and agree a more creative and concerted strategy for the city’s growth and transformation? With assets that include a huge seaport, a new airport, an attractive lifestyle and rich cultural diversity, Durban has enormous opportunities for development if its constituencies can broaden their horizons and rally behind a shared agenda.

Key indicators for the large metros

eThekwini Cape Town Johannesburg Tshwane EkurhuleniPopulation 2011

3,442,000 3,740,000 4,434,000 2,921,000 3,178,000

Population growth rate 2001-2011

11% 29% 37% 36% 28%

Employment rate* 2011

41% 50% 53% 51% 49%

Growth in employment 2001-2011

27% 38% 56% 52% 48%

Average household income 2011

R113,000 R162,000 R183,000 R183,000 R126,000

Source: Statistics SA – 2001 and 2011 census of population. Note: * = Proportion of the population aged 15-65 with formal or informal employment.

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Recent history

How did Durban get into its current predicament? South Africa’s democratic transition in 1994 and the subsequent restructuring of local government offered a promising start. Following a detailed study of SA’s major cities in the mid-1990s, Jeff McCarthy and Ann Bernstein described Durban as “the country's most promising global competitor” because of its location, political pragmatism and quality of business leaders. They said that to realise its potential, the city had to transcend its legacy of parochialism, build on its ethnic diversity and start thinking globally. The local authority needed to take the economy more seriously and do more to attract private investment through excellent services and creative leadership.

Unfortunately, the city was held back during this period by the continuing political turmoil and violent conflict across KwaZulu-Natal. One of the effects was to deter and repel business, professional and political talent from the region, as people moved to Gauteng where the economic opportunities were greater, the social networks were larger, and there was more stability. Compared with other large SA cities, two additional drags on Durban’s progress over the last two decades have been the limited presence of government departments and corporate head offices (with their sizeable knock-on effects for local spending), and the high incidence of HIV-Aids (with deleterious effects for people’s health, life expectancy and productivity).

Yet the positive possibilities of the city-region were boosted in 2000, when eThekwini was created as one of six relatively powerful metropolitan municipalities. This bold step recognised that cities were critical to solving many of the country’s biggest problems. The metros were expected to tackle the apartheid legacy of spatial inequality and to accelerate human development by extending basic services to neglected communities. They were also tasked with strengthening their local economies and promoting popular participation in government decision-making.

Across greater Durban, seven local councils and 16 traditional authority areas with disparate tax bases (40 separate jurisdictions in all) were merged to form a fully-democratic city government covering an area of nearly 2,300 km2. Such a bold step reflected the history of struggle against the inequities of the old local government system that favoured whites over blacks and produced skewed settlement patterns with devastating social outcomes. eThekwini’s territory was unusually large, and 45% of it covered tribal areas with extensive poverty, negligible infrastructure and uncertain land tenure. The metro inherited bigger demands on its rates base than any of the other metros because of the large service backlogs in its extensive rural and peri-urban hinterland. However, Durban Corporation also had substantial financial reserves that could now be put to socially-useful purposes. The strategic opportunities and economies of scale available to the new metro were set against the risk that its core focus and tax base would get undermined by the pressures of rural and township redress.

At that time, eThekwini’s three million population broke down roughly as follows:

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one million received ‘first world’ household services and paid rates that enabled the infrastructure to be maintained and replaced before it wore out;

one million received inferior services provided by the provincial authorities, and were paying little towards the cost. Their infrastructure was poorly maintained and close to collapse; and

one million received next to no services because they lived in informal settlements or traditional rural areas.

Extensive service delivery

The new eThekwini metro set about the task of distributing municipal resources more fairly across the city with admirable vigour and commitment to innovation. It used its inherited professional skills and administrative capacity to good effect in extending water, sanitation, waste collection and electricity to under-served communities. It devised creative ways of providing services in peri-urban and rural environments, such as shared ablution blocks, low pressure water systems and urine diversion toilets. In recognition, the metro received the 2014 Stockholm Industry Water Award as one of the most progressive water utilities in the world, piloting new solutions across both technical and social aspects of service delivery. It also routinely committed resources to maintaining its existing infrastructure (like replacing 2,000km of old asbestos pipes), unlike many other towns and cities in SA. Fairness was the overriding priority of the ruling party, summed up in the slogan ‘the caring city’. It was reinforced by the system of ward councillors all demanding an equal share of municipal resources for better facilities in their areas.

As long as the local economy was growing and incomes were rising, municipal revenues remained healthy and the metro could afford to roll-out free or heavily-subsidised services to more and more communities. According to the latest Census, between 2001 and 2011, no less than 154,000 additional households in eThekwini were provided with a tap inside their dwelling (an increase of 37%), and 101,000 additional households were provided with access to a flush toilet (up 20%). The number of households without electricity was reduced by 65,500 (down 40%). These were formidable achievements by any standards.

Currently one in three people (35%) receive free water; slightly more (38%) receive free sanitation services, and 7% get free electricity. Nearly half (45%) of households in eThekwini also make no contribution to municipal rates. This represents an impressive commitment to redistribution. However, there are serious question marks about whether this level of social support can be continually expanded to meet the needs of a growing poor population, especially with a flat-lining economy and a constrained rates base. New thinking is necessary, with more emphasis placed on generating the resources to redistribute, and creating more jobs and livelihoods for people to contribute towards their service costs.

Record housing provision

The City also made the provision of free (RDP/BNG) housing units one of its priorities, in line with national policy. eThekwini inherited technical capabilities to deliver low cost housing at scale. While the province paid for the top structures, the metro paid for the infrastructure, partly through the Municipal Infrastructure Grant from national government. During the

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first decade eThekwini built between 10-16,000 houses a year, and was recognised by the national Human Settlements Department with the Govan Mbeki Award for outstanding delivery. It planned and managed what may have been one of the largest programmes of free housing for the poor that any city in the world has ever delivered!

Unfortunately, this did not cut the backlog or eliminate shacks because the number of households kept growing. People have been moving to the city at a faster rate than anticipated, with raised expectations of securing a livelihood and better services. Some have also moved under duress as a result of drought and conflict in the rural areas. Almost 150,000 households in eThekwini (one in six) still live in shacks, almost the same number as in 2001. The proportion is almost one in three within the urban area. Informal settlements are contested environments and present the Municipality with some its biggest headaches. Residents are exposed to squalor, insecurity and physical hazards from living on un-serviced, unauthorised and often unsuitable land. Popular dissatisfaction, anger and violent protests seem to be growing, since people’s aspirations are frustrated and they feel deprived of fundamental human rights. Improved communication and dialogue seem like preconditions for practical progress.

The survival of former migrant hostels is another example of deficient housing that has not received enough attention from across government. This has not been helped by ongoing tensions between the Province and Municipality over policies and priorities. There are some 50,000 units in Durban hostels accommodating over 100,000 residents, many under the control of so-called ‘warlords’. Hostels remain important sources of social disaffection and crime that require upgrading, enhanced security and more family accommodation.

The attitude to informal settlements has also been ambivalent, reflecting a similar national conundrum. One body of opinion is that shack areas are illegal and should be cleared because they are eyesores and the squatters are only trying to jump the housing queue. An alternative viewpoint is that they function as valuable entry points to Durban’s labour market for rural migrants determined to lift themselves out of poverty. As potential vehicles for human progress they deserve basic services and security. eThekwini has installed ‘interim’ services into some informal settlements as a stopgap pending regularisation or relocation. In other instances the shack dwellers have been evicted, sparking conflict and distress. Rarely has serviced land been provided to accommodate informal settlements. The upgrading of the famous inner city district of Cato Manor during the 2000s was somewhat unusual. It was designated a national presidential project and secured substantial European funding to pay for a wide range of social and economic facilities within an area-based approach with dedicated project management. At roughly the same time there were several other interesting in situ upgrading schemes in places like Pinetown, Inanda and Bambayi, and the city was seen as an innovator of this practice.

Over time, eThekwini’s principal response to shack areas, and to the housing backlog more generally, became focused on trying to build new housing elsewhere in order to provide alternative formal accommodation. To economise on the land costs, many of the new RDP/BNG houses have been built in outlying areas far from jobs and amenities. These risk creating dormitory settlements - and possibly even poverty traps - rather than vibrant communities. Quality standards have sometimes been sacrificed in the push for high

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volumes, and there have been procedural irregularities with some of the tendering. A major remedial programme is now underway to rectify poor workmanship. The cost of this is denting the Municipality’s ability to sustain the same level of house-building.

The cost of providing free formal housing has also kept escalating (it is currently between R250-300,000 per unit) and delays in receiving due payments from the Province seriously threaten the metro’s financial position. With rising costs and strained resources, eThekwini is forced into more and more difficult decisions about how to ration housing provision. People living in shacks cannot be expected to wait a decade or more for the promise of a house. Housing policy has clearly run into severe headwinds and needs a radical rethink.

Economic and social stress

Two other closely-related financial challenges for the Municipality are: (i) The expanding municipal wage bill as staffing has grown steadily. In 1997 the Durban

Corporation employed 13,800 permanent staff. By 2005 eThekwini Municipality employed 19,500 and by 2014 this had grown to 24,900.2

(ii) The very high levels of joblessness across the city-region, which results in serious affordability problems.

In 2011, only 41% of adults in eThekwini had a job, compared with 51% in the other large metros (see table above). The low employment rate means there are few earners in each household and many dependents. Average incomes are also over 30% lower than in the other big metros, so wage earners have even greater difficulty meeting the needs of their relatives, who often experience hunger and hardship. Low incomes undermine people’s quality of life, restrict their ability to pay for public services, and hold back the growth of a consumer economy. eThekwini’s low employment rates and depressed incomes may stem partly from subsistence activities in its rural hinterland. Yet the performance of the core urban economy has also been lacklustre and Durban has not benefited from the presence of government departments or corporate head offices, unlike most other metros.

Income poverty is associated with other forms of social exclusion and human vulnerability, just as inequality is linked with high levels of violent crime. There are between three-quarters and a million people living below the poverty line, and many households are prone to food insecurity. High rates of child mortality are linked to the high incidence of infectious diseases – mainly TB and HIV-Aids – along with diarrhoea and malnutrition. eThekwini has the largest number of patients on anti-retrovirals of any municipality in the country. Meanwhile, the number of child-headed households doubled between 2001 and 2011. Poor education is a related problem: over 300,000 people are illiterate and most young people do not complete secondary school. At the other end of the spectrum, the city suffers from a loss of highly skilled people to Gauteng. The slack economy is one of the main reasons why the population has grown more slowly than the other large metros. Durban has not been

2 These figures are not strictly comparable because eThekwini incorporated several thousand staff from other entities besides Durban Corporation in 2001/02. In addition the number of contract workers has fallen by about 3,000 in recent years as people have been transferred onto permanent contracts. On a comparable basis, staffing may have grown by about 5-6,000 since 1997, an increase of roughly 40%.

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acting as a magnet to attract and retain mobile talent in the same way as the other big cities. This is bound to hinder the extent of learning, innovation and adaptability in the city.

Yet eThekwini has vital economic assets with great development potential. It is the busiest seaport in Africa and the main trans-shipment point for exports and imports to Gauteng. It is a major transport and logistics centre, with a variety of port-related industries and warehousing activities. Durban has always been the logical place to establish industries that depend on imported inputs, such as chemicals, food and drink, paper, printing and engineering. The recent growth of motor vehicles and components has been by far the most significant industrial development – achieved through foreign direct investment. Durban is also the main commercial centre of the province and a popular destination for domestic and business tourism, with the warm climate, extensive beaches, convention centre and other attractions. There is further potential as an ‘event city’ with all its sporting and leisure facilities and sea-front amenities. Its higher education institutions will be very important for the growth of advanced industries, knowledge-intensive services and innovation more generally, although graduate retention needs to be addressed and the decline of one of the universities needs to be reversed. The new King Shaka airport should support the growth of tourism, events and time-sensitive industries such as horticulture and high-value design and production.

Manufacturing remains a bigger part of the local economy than elsewhere, but companies have struggled against growing international competition. Clothing and textiles used to be major employers, but they have suffered badly since the 1990s. Selected firms in these and other sectors have managed to survive and even prosper when they have upgraded their processes, updated their technologies and pursued niche markets at home and abroad. Their smart, agile strategies demonstrate what’s possible with astute entrepreneurship and managerial capabilities, and improved workforce skills. The Municipality needs to be far more aware of and responsive to these emerging sources of dynamism within the local economy, which may cut across traditional industrial sectors. It also needs to recognise that the 2008 global recession and anaemic recovery have depressed the demand for labour and discouraged unemployed people from looking for work. The very high levels of economic inactivity that have resulted may require special measures to address.

Methods of boosting economic development need urgent attention, beginning with a better understanding of Durban’s competitive strengths and weaknesses. Improved communication and trust between the public and private sectors will assist this. Bottlenecks facing both domestic and foreign direct investment need to be identified and tackled with more vigour, including infrastructure constraints, logistics costs, deficient skills and unnecessary red tape. Durban’s ability to capitalize on being a major port city has been hindered by the haphazard growth of freight movement, leading to severe congestion, encroachment into residential areas and damage to infrastructure, safety and social ills. The run-down environment of old industrial areas needs attention to discourage firms from relocating unnecessarily to new business parks on greenfield sites. The supply of industrial property also needs expansion to accommodate growth. eThekwini has a track record of successful property initiatives to build upon, such as the Riverhorse Valley Business Estate. This was a joint venture with developers to accommodate over 1,800 light industrial and

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commercial businesses employing about 4,000 people and contributing substantially to the local rates base.

Current municipal policies towards the informal economy are ambiguous and should be clarified. Once again the Municipality has good experience on which it could build, including sustained support for informal enterprises at Warwick Junction. There is scope to improve the rate of start-up, productivity and viability of other kinds of small enterprises too, through mentoring and training programmes, financial support, marketing advice, incubators and shared infrastructure. Finally, Durban is ideally positioned to benefit from the government’s new Operation Phakisa initiative on the Oceans Economy. To make progress on the economy it is vital that the Municipality does not seek to go it alone as its economic powers and resources are limited. Working in partnership with other actors is essential – especially in business, but also other spheres of government, labour, NGOs and research organisations.

Urban fragmentation

Durban has a dispersed urban form, which creates inefficiencies and reinforces exclusion. The hilly topography complicates contiguous, compact development and adds to the costs of urban infrastructure and flat building sites. The pattern of new development over the last 15 years has tended to extend low density sprawl and make inefficient use of land. Building on the periphery is costly in terms of bulk infrastructure and results in long drawn-out negotiations with developers over who should pay. Large private landowners should not be able to dictate the future form of the city by controlling the location and density of new building. Durban’s modest rate of household growth, especially among the affluent and middle classes, also means that the case for launching new cities or grandiose, up-market housing schemes is much weaker than it is in Gauteng – the demand to justify such projects needs careful interrogation.

The withdrawal of upper and middle income groups into privatised residential estates and business precincts with their own amenities threatens the integrity of the public realm. People lead parallel lives, which affects their attachment to the city and willingness to pay for city-wide public services. The central city has suffered from a loss of private investment and physical decay as a result of neglect of some of the buildings and poor management of key urban precincts. Several dozen buildings are derelict or occupied by squatters or unauthorised businesses. There is a strong case for converting empty buildings into affordable housing and workspaces. The city centre remains a unique asset at the heart of the transport network because it maximises access to economic opportunities, educational facilities, the harbour, civic centre and a wide range of attractive amenities. Unregulated and uncoordinated development, particularly in and around the townships and traditional areas, have frustrated local communities and hampered the City’s overall development.

The transport system has serious flaws, including fragmentation, unreliability and poor safety. People spend far more of their incomes on transport than in cities in other countries, partly because of the inefficient form of the city. The use of minibus taxis and private cars has been growing, despite not receiving any operating subsidies from government funds. Public buses and trains receive all the subsidies, but account for only 10-15% of trips and

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have not been growing. The new Bus Rapid Transit system will be very costly for the metro to operate, judging by the experience of similar schemes in Cape Town and Johannesburg. A great deal of thought needs to be given to making effective use of the government funds available for public transport.

Restructuring the urban form to create a more integrated city-region should promote economic efficiency (and therefore growth) and social inclusion/equity (through access to jobs). It is a long-term challenge requiring high-level political commitment to a strong spatial vision and determined implementation. Higher density, mixed-use and mixed-income development is essential for the viability of new public transport systems and to create more vibrant and liveable neighbourhoods. Concentrated public investment targeted at key development zones can also achieve more positive spin-offs for jobs than spreading resources through a scattergun approach. There are important lessons to be learnt from transformative projects being undertaken in partnership with the private sector at key nodal locations, such as Bridge City. It is generally easier to experiment and innovate in the safe ‘in-between’ spaces of partnerships than within large institutions with all their established rules and procedural inertia.

Environmental challenges

Sprawling urban development and pollution have damaged sensitive watercourses and reduced biodiversity, thereby undermining Durban’s resilience to climate change and increasing the risk of disasters. Not enough has been done to protect threatened ecosystems and enhance the city’s natural assets. There is a looming crisis of wastewater treatment because current infrastructure and rivers cannot cope with the growing volume of sewage. A more careful approach to the natural environment could avoid the cost of expensive engineering solutions to drainage problems, and reduce the damage from extreme weather events and rising sea levels. This is particularly important for vulnerable rural communities who rely on natural systems for their survival. Taking more care of natural resources is also vital for agricultural productivity and food security, which can play a valuable role in strengthening the connections between rural and urban areas.

The city experiences a high level of water losses (nearly 40%) as a result of leakages, theft and billing/metering problems. This threatens a potential water crisis induced by insufficient capacity in local dams (caused by delays in national approval for new dams and opposition to water recycling schemes) and changing weather patterns linked with climate change. In terms of energy supply, despite good progress in reducing backlogs, there are still about 80,000 households without electricity. They rely on unhealthy energy from paraffin and firewood. There are also many illegal electricity connections, which represent a loss of municipal revenues and damage the integrity of power supply across the city. eThekwini cannot rely on surpluses generated from electricity sales to cross-subsidise other services for very much longer because the tide of national opinion is shifting against this practice. Renewable energy generation could probably play a bigger role than at present.

eThekwini metro has a good track record on selected environmental issues, with the reputation of a leader in the field. For example, the Durban Metropolitan Open Space System (D’MOSS) was designed to protect the city’s core ecological infrastructure and

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thereby ensure a sustained supply of free ecosystem services (such as clean water and flood prevention) to residents. It was introduced as an additional criterion to be factored into planning policies and development decisions. eThekwini has also invested in restoring and managing ecosystems and controlling invasive alien plants through three large public programmes: Working for Ecosystems, Working on Fire, and Community Reforestation. They provide temporary jobs and skills training for several hundred people. The roads department has a larger public works scheme to maintain the municipal road network, including clearing water culverts and drains of weeds and rubbish. There is a strong capacity building aspect to these programmes. Finally, Durban has recently been selected as a member of the Rockefeller Foundation’s global ‘100 Resilient Cities Programme’. This could be a valuable platform for peer review and sharing of experience with many of the most go-ahead and dynamic cities in the world.

City governance

The scale of these challenges facing Durban is beyond the capacity of any single organisation to address. They require a shared vision for the City and intensive dialogue, mutual learning and cooperation across civil society, business, labour, knowledge institutions and various parts of government. The Municipality does not have a strong record of working in collaboration with these other sectors. It has tended to pursue its’ own agenda rather than a collective vision embracing other role-players. Consequently, external relationships have been somewhat neglected. There appears to have been an implicit assumption that the Municipality has the knowledge and capabilities to develop the economy and transform social conditions on its own. Previous sections clearly question this assumption and suggest that a broader approach is required to tackle the city’s intractable problems, particularly in a more complex and unpredictable environment. In order to rebuild trust in citizens and to harness the energy, creativity and resources that exist elsewhere in society, eThekwini should make it a priority to strengthen its relationships with a range of other actors.

Part of the reason the Municipality has been rather inward-looking at times because it is a large and unwieldy administration to manage. Amalgamating the different local authorities eThekwini inherited in 2000 was a major undertaking. The upshot is that the Municipality has battled to put in place a coherent strategy for Durban’s long-term development. Priorities and projects have varied over time, often in response to extraneous events and ad hoc problems. Line departments are naturally inclined to plough their own furrows, often following national sectoral priorities, but each with different target outcomes. Broader, cross-cutting themes suffer accordingly, including economic development, environmental sustainability, spatial transformation and managed urbanisation (informal settlements). Relationships with provincial government and surrounding municipalities have also suffered from insular thinking from all quarters. Tensions and conflict between the province and metro have been particularly damaging. Internal political divisions and factionalism within the ruling party are part of the problem. Recent differences have attracted national media attention and done nothing to improve Durban’s reputation as a well-run city.

Some departments remain highly competent and innovative in approaching their mandates, while others have suffered from the departure of highly skilled people and the unwinding of progressive programmes. The result is that the quality of policy and practice are very patchy

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across the municipality, with insufficient cross-fertilisation of ideas and joint working. One attempt to address this was through an innovative area-based management experiment in the mid-2000s, but this seemed to struggle to win high level support. Another approach was to group departments into seven administrative clusters. Close observers believe that these ‘transversal’ initiatives have not realised their potential and should be pursued more systematically. eThekwini could also learn useful lessons from other municipalities with more experience of overcoming silos.

The Integrated Development Plan (IDP) has obvious potential, but it currently does not function as the coordinating device envisaged in the legislation. Its analytical foundations are not strong and it does not exercise much influence over departmental programmes. Decision-makers are inclined to paper over tensions and dilemmas, rather than explicitly identify and resolve them, so the IDP ends up as more of a compliance exercise than a strategic plan of action. The City Treasurer generally exerts a big influence on departmental budgets. The prevailing approach is prudent and incremental without an obvious strategic thrust. The metro is very efficient about collecting the municipal rates it is owed. It is also proud of having one of the highest credit ratings in the country, although there may be a question about the importance of this priority, given the city’s major socio-economic needs.

Given what has already been said, coupled with inevitable budget inertia, resources are generally not deployed on the basis of a systematic understanding of Durban’s challenges, development opportunities or desired outcomes. The politics of distribution exert a big influence on spending patterns, with overwhelming pressure to spread resources across the city and give something to everyone. The popular imperative of redress has meant giving special emphasis to reducing service backlogs in historically marginalised rural areas. This is commendable, although the approach sometimes appears mechanical and decisions may give insufficient attention to the opportunity costs and financial sustainability of providing conventional services in isolated areas, and asking what strategic outcomes are being achieved in the process. The case for spatial targeting of investment on areas with all-round development potential has not found an equivalent political or professional champion. The general lack of explicit discussion and debate about spending priorities, allocation principles and financial discipline is not healthy. It does not raise awareness of the difficult dilemmas that need to be confronted, nor improve the quality of decision-making.

In the absence of an integrated strategy for eThekwini’s overall development, all sorts of ad hoc initiatives capture the municipality’s attention. The imperative of preparing for the 2010 World Cup is a good illustration. It was a rare example of how the whole municipality galvanised its collective effort around a clear and purposeful vision related to a single project, despite concerns that the benefits might be short-lived. It required building the Moses Mabida stadium, which became an iconic feature of the Durban skyline, although it left a heavy financial burden. It also required transforming the beach-front into an attractive and functional amenity. This has transpired to be a highly popular improvement and it may yield enduring benefits for tourism and the revival of the central city. Other decisions have been distractions for different reasons. At one point the municipal bus service was privatised inappropriately, causing considerable disruption to regular users. A street renaming exercise was also mishandled, which harmed the municipality’s reputation among some groups of residents.

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One of the purposes of a long-term plan for the city is to chart the strategic direction and protect decision-makers from being diverted off course by arbitrary pressures, speculative projects and piecemeal events. These distract attention and skew resources away from the long haul of building a functional and inclusive city through focus and sustained commitment. A sound long-term plan can also engender confidence among private investors and other stakeholders in a local and global context that is increasingly uncertain and unpredictable. A good plan is also valuable for other spheres of government and surrounding municipalities, who need to know the long-term intentions of the metro. Of course this plan requires a broader regional perspective because eThekwini cannot be developed in isolation of its hinterland. A plan for the city-region enables individual localities to pool their assets and align their investments, rather than compete against each other in ways that may be damaging.

A deficient evidence base

One of eThekwini’s innovations has been the creation of the Municipal Institute of Learning (MILE). This involves ‘practitioners training practitioners’ within the metro and with other municipalities and local government associations in SA and abroad. However, the research and evidence base is not an important part of this initiative. This is a concern because the Municipality has not done much in recent years to invest in robust knowledge and information systems, or modern scenario techniques. As a result, the IDP and several other strategies suffer from insufficient understanding of key trends and dynamics affecting the city-region. Particular gaps in knowledge, along with some suggestions for key questions that need to be addressed, include:

1. Durban’s economy: What are the city-region’s underlying competitive strengths and distinctive competencies; how is Durban positioned within global value chains; who are its main competitors in different industry sectors; what are its key export products and markets; where are the sources of particular innovation and creativity; what are Durban’s key economic assets and unrealised potential; what are the main barriers and bottlenecks to business growth and development, and how do they vary between firms of different size and sector?

2. Quality of life: An annual survey of living conditions is undertaken involving 1,200 households. The results show that most respondents are satisfied with municipal services, although many are concerned about the lack of jobs, high crime, housing and service backlogs, poorly maintained infrastructure and polluted rivers. The metro should supplement the survey with a deeper analysis of the variations in well-being between different localities and social groups across the city-region. A fuller understanding of poverty, exclusion and discontent would assist policy development.

3. The urbanisation process: What is the scale and character of rural-urban migration; how is it affected by economic and environmental conditions; what is the nature of household aspirations and strategies for accessing urban land and labour markets; what determines whether people invest in the city or the countryside; what is the extent of upward social and spatial mobility within the city? The answers would help to devise more effective housing policies.

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4. Reducing poverty through household services: Since the municipality’s core mandate is to deliver household services, it is important to learn how to enhance their developmental impact, i.e. to strengthen human capabilities and enable people to access jobs and livelihoods, thereby permitting a contribution to service costs and improving long-term viability. It is also vital to know how much greater these impacts are in well-located areas than in peripheral locations?

5. Making more efficient use of the land: Raising residential densities is vital for creating more vibrant communities, viable public transport and efficient bulk infrastructure and services. A better understanding is required of policies that unintentionally encourage sprawl (such as under-pricing infrastructure, car travel and RDP/BNG housing); where and why densification is happening; what the obstacles are in other well-located places, and what might be done to promote more intensive, mixed-use developments, including infill sites along transport corridors and the central city.

6. The changing spatial economy: How does the quantity and quality of economic growth vary across the city-region; how are the key economic nodes evolving, do they complement or compete with each other, and what impact are new assets having (e.g. King Shaka airport)? How strong are rural-urban linkages (e.g. food supply), how are they changing, and what scope is there for further development?

7. City governance and leadership: How does the quality of city governance compare with other places; what are the strengths to build upon and the weaknesses to address; what kind of civic leadership is required for the future, and how can these capabilities be developed; how can the participation of different stakeholders and citizens be improved; in a context of uncertainty, what types of partnership are needed to exchange experience, guide new thinking, develop and test ideas, and engage in joint action?

There appears to be a strong argument for public bodies in the region to invest in setting up a research and information observatory for eThekwini. Its main purposes would be to improve understanding of major patterns and trends affecting the city-region, periodically benchmark eThekwini against other cities, provide policy analysis and advice, undertake applied research, and generally build the knowledge and evidence base that government, business, labour and civil society all need to make KZN’s economic heartland more prosperous, integrated, resilient and inclusive. It would be a valuable symbolic and strategic initiative for the observatory to be established as a partnership between the two universities, the metro and the province.

Emerging questions

Important questions emerge from this assessment of the situation facing greater Durban. The City Planning Commission is keen to hear your views and responses to these matters.

1. Is this document correct in suggesting that the city-region is not realising its potential and is on a precarious trajectory? Are there any glaring omissions in the

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analysis? Do you agree that bold ideas and experimentation are required from many role-players to tackle the socio-economic, spatial and environmental problems? What do you think needs to be done to manage a transition from business-as-usual? What are the main things that would help Durban to function better as a city? What could restore the image and reputation of Durban and some of its institutions following recent problems?

2. Is it fair to say that the city’s fortunes are not just a local matter, but have significant implications for the province and indeed for the country as a whole? What can be done to ensure that Durban’s influence on the prosperity of KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa is properly recognised at provincial and national levels? What more should the provincial and national governments do to assist Durban?

3. Is there a need for greater economic literacy and understanding among decision-makers? Do you agree that economic development and job creation are fundamental to the future well-being of local citizens? What is distinctive about Durban’s economy? What opportunities exist to strengthen the city’s economy, encourage productive activity, and boost jobs and livelihoods? What role(s) should the Municipality play to stimulate additional investment and jobs?

4. How can greater trust and cohesion be built among the diverse population – from the bottom and the top? What can be done to help citizens play a more active role in tackling the complex challenges of their communities? How can people’s resourcefulness and social networks be strengthened for the benefit of the city as a whole? How important is it to attract and retain talent, and what should be done?

5. Is the current pattern of fragmented and informal development of urban land sustainable? How could the benefits of urbanisation be optimised? Can you envisage a more compact city within a more integrated city-region? What are the implications of the northern drift of investment and jobs, and how could it be counter-balanced? How should the city protect and restore vital natural systems, strengthen food security and prepare for more constrained water, energy and other resources in the future?

6. What can be done to establish more supportive relationships and shared agendas between different institutions in the region? How can the energy and

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resources of key stakeholders in government, business, labour and civil society be mobilised for joint action to address the systemic challenges facing the city, and to navigate a more uncertain future collectively?

7. What are the respective roles of the KZN Province, state entities and eThekwini Municipality in forging a new development path for Durban? Does urbanisation mean that more responsibilities and resources should be transferred to the Municipality over time to facilitate integrated planning? What could and should eThekwini do differently if it had more control over housing policy? And what should it do about the public transport system?

8. How could the Municipality strengthen its own capacity, resources and leadership to accelerate economic and social progress and spatial transformation? What kinds of partnerships should it create, and with whom? What issues have been neglected to date and deserve more attention? Which other cities in SA and elsewhere have valuable experiences that Durban could learn from?

9. What contribution can you and your organisation make to shaping the city’s future?

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