emp defense council.2011.01.03
DESCRIPTION
Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) events, whether from major solar flares or high-altitude nuclear blasts, is a real and highly probable threat to modern civilization. The EMP Defense Council(TM) was founded to foster markets-based approaches to preparing for EMP.TRANSCRIPT
EMP Defense Council© -->> Preparing for an Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP) from a
Massive Solar Ejection (MSE) or Airburst Nuclear Attack
David A. PalellaFounder
EMP Defense Council©
[ a business unit of BioScience Ventures Inc.]
San Diego, Californiacell: 619-787-5767
email: [email protected]
http://EMP411.blogspot.com
Entire contents Copyright November 2010 by David A. Palella. All rights reserved.
1-page Executive Summary
An Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) caused by either a high-altitude nuclear blast or a solar Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has a high probability of occurring within the next 3 - 5 years.
Nuclear EMP events can extend over a radius of 1,000 miles and will severely damage or impair most of the conveniences of modern life including the electrical grid, medical devices, computer systems, cars, consumer electronics, home appliances and satellites. Solar EMP events would affect the entire planet.
Planes in the air, nuclear power plant control systems, acute-care medical equipment, elevators and heating & cooling systems could cease functioning immediately, leading to 100s of thousands of deaths in a few minutes or hours.
Back-up generators and emergency response equipment, even those turned off or not in operation at the time of an EMP event would also be severely damaged.
Due to hosting the largest concentration of American military hardware in the world, San Diego is a prime target for a terrorist EMP attack.
Little is being done by governments, companies, schools and the non-profit sector to prepare for EMP. Preparations by the U.S. military are generally unknown.
The EMP Defense Council©, a for-profit business unit of BioScience Ventures Inc., will act as a catalyst to mobilize companies, trade associations, standards-setting groups and governments to prepare the U.S. for EMP.
Action Steps to be taken by EMP Defense Council (#1)
Work with standards-setting groups such as IEEE and UL, and with trade associations such as AEA/TechAmerica and NEMA, to set U.S. and/or international standards for EMP/CME-resistant products
Lobby in Sacramento and Washington, DC, for tax incentives and stimulus funding for EMP/CME-related countermeasures and preparedness programs undertaken by U.S. companies and industries
For example: Establish more generous Federal and state R&D tax credits for expenditures on EMP/CME-related product & systems development
For example: Seek Federal stimulus funding to drill water wells on the grounds of all schools in arid regions of the U.S., cap the wells and install manual hand-pumps on them so that 10s of thousands of students marooned in place at schools will not die of dehydration within 3-5 days of an EMP/CME event occurring in summertime. Yes, that’s what would happen.
Action Steps to be taken by EMP Defense Council (#2)
Lobby municipal & local governments, and persuade California schools & colleges in particular to proactively prepare for EMP/CME
Persuade utilities in particular to harden, bury/shield, or duplicate the electricity grid to withstand EMP/CME to avoid the up to 1-year- to 9-year-long blackouts or brown-outs predicted under a typical EMP/CME scenario. Yes, they could be that loooooong
Seek Federal legislation to establish an annual "EMP/CME Action Day" to teach students & teachers and employees & employers how to survive in place for several days to weeks in the case of a severe EMP/CME event
EMP Defense Council Advisory Services
In addition to the over-arching tasks and goals just enumerated, the EMP Defense Council will undertake related work tasks and Scopes of Work for paying clients
The work tasks or Scopes of Work must have broad applicability to industry or society at large and not be overly focused on any specific company’s or government entity’s own concerns.
-->> because EMP / CME is a national and global threat.
The handful of other EMP/CME-related consulting companies worldwide focus only business-continuity/computer systems-hardening services, grid-related issues, or on poorly-publicized global efforts that have yielded little results to date.
A new approach is needed -- especially for America & California
Why prepare for Nuclear EMP or CME ?
Because many of the exact same preparations are also needed for:
-- major earthquakes
-- flu pandemics / epidemics or quarantines
-- hurricanes
-- dirty nuclear or radiological bombs
-- nuclear reactor melt-downs / leaks
-- cyber / viral attacks on internet and/or power-grid management / control centers (e.g., the Stuxnet virus); and
-- and other national emergencies
Historical examples of Nuclear EMP & Solar CME
Hawaii & "Starfish Prime" nuclear test at 250 miles / 400 Km altitude, but 900 miles / 1445 Km away from Hawaii on 09 July 1962 [ Coordinated Universal Time ]. Reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime
Street lights in Honolulu were knocked out and microwave relay stations on Oahu were destroyed
The Carrington Event of 1859 or the “Solar Superstorm” -- Telegraph lines & equipment in America and Europe were shorted out by the most powerful solar or geomagnetic storm in recorded history, a CME = Coronal Mass Ejection event that caused many forest fires in the U.S.Reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859
A similarly-powerful CME event today would knock out most satellites, the power grid worldwide, and the internet, leading to business, social and governmental disruptions for many months or years
Historical examples of Solar CME• May 13, 1921 - The New York Railroad Storm
• “The prelude to this particular storm began with a major sunspot sighted on the limb of the sun vast enough to be seen with the naked eye through smoked glass. The spot was 94,000 miles long and 21,000 miles wide and by May 14th was near the center of the sun in prime location to unleash an earth-directed flare. The 3-degree magnetic bearing change among the five worst events recorded, ended all communications traffic from the Atlantic Coast to the Mississippi.
At 7:04 AM on May 15, the entire signal and switching system of the New York Central Railroad below 125th street was put out of operation, followed by a fire in the control tower at 57th Street and Park Avenue. No one had ever heard of such a thing having happened during the course of an auroral display. The cause of the outage was later ascribed to a 'ground current' that had invaded the electrical system.
Railroad officials formally assigned blame for a fire that destroyed the Central New England Railroad station, to the aurora. Telegraph Operator Hatch said that he was actually driven away from his telegraph instrument by a flame that enveloped his switchboard and ignited the entire building at a loss of $6,000.
Over seas, in Sweden a telephone station was 'burned out', and the storm interfered with telephone, telegraph and cable traffic over most of Europe. Aurora were visible in the Eastern United States, with additional reports from Pasadena California where the aurora reached zenith.”
[Newspaper Archive] <http://www.solarstorms.org/SS1921.html>
http://www.solarstorms.org/SRefStorms.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_storm
EMP demonstration videos on Youtube.com
Watch EMP tests conducted at White Sands Missile Range in southern New Mexico
Highly confined and man-made EMPs instantly and permanently disable a flying model helicopter and a full-sized automobile in motion
“EMP Part 1” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fvu08Y9XJ0U
“EMP Part 2” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0odJKYTzXg8
Other References for White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico
http://www.wsmr.army.mil/Pages/Home.aspxhttp://www.wsmr.army.mil/testcenter/testing/landf/etf/Pages/ElectromagneticPulseFacility.aspxhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Sands_Missile_Range
Types / Causes of EMP
High-altitude nuclear blast (80 - 400 km) or Electro-Magnetic Bombs
Solar coronal mass ejection (CME) -- next maximum of the sunspot cycle occurs in 2011 - 2013
Magnetic-pole reversal...? -- which could occur anytime now…
Gamma radiation pressure from all types of EMP or CME instantly and dramatically deforms the inelastic magnetic field of the earth via a self-propagating soliton-like effect over a line-of-sight radius of 100s to 1,000s of miles causing large voltage spikes in all conductive materials
Surge suppressors, voltage regulators and power supplies cannot react in time to, nor handle, this instantaneous, bi-directional current spike that occurs in all conductive materials inside a piece of equipment, and in all the outside wires connected to it
Even equipment that is turned off and not in operation will be affected
“U.S. and Israeli power in the Middle East will soon be eclipsed…”
• “Ahmadinejad visit to Lebanon stirs fears; Worries about tenuous truce between Iranian-backed Hezbollah and Western-backed parties in the government"
World news - Mideast/North Africa -- Oct 13, 2010
"BEIRUT — Iran's president made a bold show of strength in Lebanon on Wednesday, vowing before thousands of Hezbollah supporters that U.S. and Israeli power in the Middle East will soon be eclipsed.""
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39646157/ns/world_news-mideast/n_africa
• What does this imply to you ? It’s a BIG Hint ! Let’s wake up !!
“Iran may have missiles from North Korea, cables posted by WikiLeaks show”
• By Viola Gienger and Miles Weiss
Nov 28, 2010
“Iran obtained 19 advanced missiles from North Korea, potentially giving the Islamic nation the capability of attacking Moscow and cities in Western Europe, according to embassy cables posted by WikiLeaks.org and provided to the New York Times.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-29/iran-may-have-missiles-from-north-korea-cables-posted-by-wikileaks-show.html
To contact the reporters on this story:
Viola Gienger in Washington at: [email protected]
Miles Weiss in Washington at: [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Mark Silva at: [email protected]
Hedge Funds pile into Doomsday Trade
• "Hedge Funds Pile Into Doomsday Trade” -- [ tail-risk hedging against Black Swan events ]
03 December 2010
• "The idea of hedging against catastrophe, otherwise known as tail risk, has become the latest rage among hedge funds, according to money managers and traders.
Three years after Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularized the idea of guarding against so-called black swan events -- extremely rare but disastrous market circumstances -- a small but growing number of hedge funds have opened dedicated tail-risk hedging vehicles to provide wary investors with additional insurance against calamity.
Tail-risk funds buy products like credit default swaps and equity put options as down payments that will reap returns if certain markets decline far more than they would on an average day……"
...............
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Hedge-Funds-Pile-Into-cnbc-1572966326.html?x=0
[ EMP ] “report warns Obama about ‘new’ Dark Ages”
• "Report warns Obama about 'new' Dark Ages” --'Airplanes would fall from sky, cars would stop, networks fail'
Posted: November 28, 2010 -- By Bob Unruh -- 2010 WorldNetDaily
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=233077
• Original Source from The Heritage Foundation:
"EMP Attacks —- What the U.S. Must Do Now"
November 17, 2010 by James Carafano, Ph.D. & Richard Weitz, Ph.D.Backgrounder #2491
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/11/EMP-Attacks-What-the-US-Must-Do-Now
Macro Negative Effects of EMP/CME on the U.S.
Regardless of the type of EMP/CME, large sections of the U.S., especially the Northeast and Northwest where the magnetic field lines of the earth are closer together, could lose power for up to 1 year. Yes, Year.
Power rationing could last from 4 - 9 years due to limited worldwide capacity to manufacture high-capacity transformers and other large-scale electrical power-station transmission equipment
Only a handful of companies worldwide are able to manufacture the 100-400-ton power transformers that will be destroyed by EMP / CME
No company manufactures this equipment in the U.S. If a CME affects both Europe and the U.S. (as has happened many times before historically), or both Japan and the U.S., guess who will receive the first deliveries of new equipment? Not Americans living in their “hollowed out” manufacturing base
In sum, possibly for almost a decade, 100s of thousands to millions of lives would be at risk and the economic output of the U.S. would suffer dramatically
Macro Negative Effects on S. California (#1)
Due to hosting the world's highest concentration of "assets" of the U.S. military (in particular of the U.S. Navy & Marines), San Diego or Southern California is a Top-3 target of any terrorist organization planning an EMP strike (after Washington, D.C./Norfolk, VA, and New York City)
An EMP strike would instantly destroy large sections of the West Coast power grid causing a blackout of many months -- or years
Electronic control systems of nuclear reactors and their back-up generators would become inoperable and nuclear core melt-downs highly probable. Do fully-manual systems exist for lifting out the dozens or hundreds of fuel-rod bundles from nuclear reactor cores ? Probably not.
Immediately, all or most vehicles would become inoperable, coast to a stop, and be hard to move and repair. Everyone would be marooned in place for days or weeks, including students at schools and employees at work. In short, millions of people could be stuck in places with only 1 - 2 days of water and food available
Macro Negative Effects on S. California (#2)
• All or most medical equipment in hospitals would immediately fail, causing 10s of thousands of deaths in a few minutes for intubated patients, or patients in surgery on heart-lung machines, or using an external/internal pacemaker (with no native heart beat), assisted-breathing equipment, an oxygen supply, etc.
• Most back-up generators at hospitals, prisons, manufacturing plants and nuclear facilities would also be impaired or destroyed, and thus would not be a source of power
• Engines on most or all modern airplanes in the air would immediately fail and 100s to 1,000s of planes would have to make an emergency landing within minutes (when air traffic control is also inoperable). Most, of course, would crash, causing 10s of thousands of deaths in a few minutes
• Electronic prison security systems would fail, possibly allowing 10,000s of prisoners to escape, or, conversely, being permanently trapped in their cells and dying of dehydration / starvation
Macro Negative Effects on S. California (#3)
• Water pumping station equipment would fail, and water supplies would run short in a few days after gravity-induced water pressure declined. Unfiltered water in local streams, rivers and reservoirs would be the only source of water for weeks or months, and might not be accessible by 100s of thousands or millions of people
• All food requiring refrigeration would spoil within hours or days
• In short, mass dehydration and starvation would occur within the first week or two, especially if an EMP occurs in the summer months and/or during business / school hours when families are maximally dispersed and have little access to stores of food and water at schools and businesses
• Central & southern regions of the U.S. would not be affected as much by a nuclear EMP event and would be the nearest source of help, but mobilization of supplies and their transport over 1,000 - 1,500 miles to assist 30 + million Californians would take many weeks. In short, too late for several million souls, at least…
Chaos Theory and 2nd- & 3rd-order Effects
Widespread failure of so many primary systems that are the basis for modern-day life will lead to many unforeseeable 2nd- and 3rd-order effects that will cause more suffering and fatalities
Chaos Theory and Scenario Planning cannot predict all possible negative realities and eventualities
In short, EMP will probably cause dependent or consequential Black Swan events that could occur in clusters or cascades for many weeks or months
Some on-line articles state that U.S. retaliation against a rogue nation for an EMP attack would be hard to justify because “no one would be hurt” by an EMP strike. This thinking is patently false and moronic. 100s of thousands of Americans would die in the first few minutes and hours of an EMP event
Institutions/Groups/Companies most at risk nationwide
Schools, colleges, universities
U.S. Prisons housing about 2-3 million criminals
Hospitals, especially intensive care units
Major employers / Fortune 1000 companies
Wall Street and the entire U.S. financial system
Airlines, railroads, trucking companies
Utilities, **nuclear reactors**, power stations and electrical-grid management entities
Federal, state and municipal governments
Commercial real estate investors and elevator manufacturers
Plus.....?? -->> add your own victims here: _____________
What is the legal liability of Companies & Institutions that should have prepared for EMP or CME ?
Existing tort / personal injury / civil and criminal law ?
Novel theories of EMP-related liability -- RICO (Racketeer-Influenced, Corrupt Organization) statutes applied to major companies and industries that ignored the dangers of EMP / CME ?
Class-action lawsuits against industries or companies that failed to prepare for EMP / CME ?
Whistle-blower lawsuits ?
Is EMP or CME an "Act of God" or force majeure ? Probably not because enough information about it exists in the public domain. Any educated manager and board member should have known about it and taken precautions
Is nuclear bomb-induced EMP an Act or War ? -- probably not, again, because its occurrence would be predicted by the "Average Man" test of the U.S. Supreme Court
Add your own legal theories here: __________________________.
National Mfg. Industry & Testing Associations to co-opt for the development of EMP-hardened or EMP-resistant Products
AEA (American Electronics Association) --> now TechAmericahttp://www.techamerica.org
IEEE -- http://www.ieee.org
NEMA = National Electrical Manufacturers Association: http://www.nema.org
Utility and power grid groups
UL = Underwriters' Laboratory -- http://www.ul.com
Emergency response vehicle / Emergency services groups
Automobile manufacturers -- http://www.autoalliance.org
Water-well drillers & producers of solar-powered desalination plants
S. California Associations / Groups / Companies to co-opt to develop an EMP/CME Defense Strategy
Armed Forces Communications & Electronics AssociationAFCEA San Diego Chapterhttp://www.afcea-sd.org
National Defense Industrial AssociationSan Diego Chapter (NDIA-SD)
NDIA San Diego Chapter http://www.ndia-sd.org
Fleet Week San Diegohttp://www.fleetweeksandiego.org
Sempra Energyhttp://www.sempra.comhttp://www.sdge.com/safety
Design for EMP / CME
Product designers and engineers worldwide should take into account the dramatic and fatal effects of EMP/CME on electronic / electrical products and design/engineer EMP-hardened versions
All engineering schools worldwide should require mandatory coursework on the dangers of EMP & CME and teach necessary product-design safeguards
UL (Underwriters Laboratory), Consumer Reports, IEEE, the CPSC (Consumer Product Safety Commission), etc., should rate / evaluate all products for EMP & CME resistance and set standards for these
Potential partner for changing the product design world:
The Designers' Accord:
http://www.designersaccord.org
Concrete examples of Design for EMP / CME
# 1 -- The simple fuse -- fuses costing less than $ 1.00 each should be engineered into many accessible locations of home appliances, medical equipment, cars, trucks, planes, plant control systems, power plants, and more
Blown-out fuses could easily and cheaply be replaced and many pieces of equipment salvaged fairly easily and at low cost. Without fuses, their key ICs (integrated circuits), relays, converters, power supplies, switches, etc. will be fried / melted
#2 -- Automatic disengagement of major conductive wires and components
When not in operation, which is most of the time in the case of many appliances and vehicles, one could envision a design where upon shut-off, the major conductive wires and components automatically disengage from each other, and/or are isolated by non-conductive insulators that quench voltage spikes
Examples of EMP / CME-resistant Products -- Mechanical or “Retro” (old-fashioned)
Swatch self-winding, totally plastic watch with minimal moving parts -- costs less than US$ 100: http://www.swatch.com/zz_en/services/faq.detail-technical.num-13.html
Completely mechanical Philippe Patek Grand Complication good for 999 years -- costs US$ 200-500K ++: http://www.patek.com/patek-philippe.html?pageId=44291&backgroundId=3&lang=en&
Water-well hand pumps
Kick-start motorcycles ...?
Hand-crank automobiles...?
Traditional push, rotating-blade mechanical lawn mowers
Others ? ___________________ ?
Examples of next-generation EMP / CME-resistant Products (new-fashioned)
Photonic, Laser, Solid-state, cloud- & gravity-based products / services:
-- Photons & gravitons are not affected by magnetic fields (in general)
-- Fiber optic cabling should be extended alllll the way to the desk-top wherever possible, especially in the case of police & fire stations, and hospitals and schools
-- Solar panels..? -- most components of solar panels may survive EMP/CME -- but the components at either end of their traditional copper connecting wires will not
-- Photonic computers based on solid-state lasers and photonic circuits, not on traditional semiconductors and electrons, should survive
-- Cloud-computing-based services that are globally-based and highly redundant should survive EMP
-- Many batteries, especially those not in use, will survive EMP and may be the only source of electricity for many weeks or months
-- Others: ________________ ?
In summation…
The higher your standard of living as an American or European, the more EMP/CME will impact your life style
The more electrified / advanced / “electronified” your company or business, the more EMP/CME will severely affect your plant & equipment, productive output, products and EVA(SM) (enterprise value added) for months or years
Extensive failure of the electrical grid regionally or nationally, combined with destruction of most back-up generators regionally or nationally, means the waiting time for full return of electrical power could be 1 - 9 years. Yes, years. Black-outs and Brown-outs could rule your life & company’s financial performance for almost a decade
The highly touted “smart grid” is really not so “smart” and will also be just as equally impaired by EMP/CME. As in almost all complex systems, “the last mile” will be the smart grid’s Achilles’ heel in case of EMP/CME
EMP Defense Council Membership
Membership support levels in the Council are:
(1) Gamma [ think “gamma radiation” -- the most powerful ]: US$ 100,000 per year commitment for at least 5 years
(2) Solar [ think “solar wind” ]: US$ 75,000 per year commitment for at least 5 years
(3) Beta [ think “beta particles = stripped-off electrons” ]: US$ 50,000 per year commitment for at least 4 years
(4) Cosmic [ think “cosmic rays” ]: US$ 25,000 per year commitment for at least 4 years
Reference / Sources (#1)
• (1) "One Second After"http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0765317583?ie=UTF8&tag=surviveinplac-20
• (2) "Surviving Solar Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, and EMPs"http://secretsofurbansurvival.com/331/surviving-solar-flares-coronal-mass-ejections-and-emps
• (3) Urban Survival Secrets For Surviving Terrorist Attacks, Natural Disasters And Pandemics!http://surviveinplace.com
http://surviveinplace.com/sp-electromagnetic_pulse_EMP.php?OVRAW=EMP%20Hardened&OVKEY=emp%20hardening&OVMTC=advanced&OVADID=36639824021&OVKWID=289640678021&OVCAMPGID=6558236521&OVADGRPID=14908632909&OVNDID=ND2
• (4) List of U.S. Navy Ships Worldwide:http://www.navy.mil/navydata/bases/navbases.htmlhttp://www.navy.mil/navydata/ships/lists/homeport.asp
Reference / Sources (#2)
(5) Instant Access Networks, LLC
[ Survive EMP / SurviveEMP.com / Survive-EMP.com ]
http://www.safe9-1-1-.com
http://www.chuckmanto.com
http://survive-emp.com
http://survive-emp.com/about/partners
http://survive-emp.com/about/partners/911-coop/
(6) Radius Engineering International Inc..
http://www.bomb-shelter.net
(7) EMP Preparedness 2013
http://www.emp-preparedness.com/Home/AboutUs.html
http://www.emp-preparedness.com
Reference / Sources (#3)
(8) Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#Geoeffective_eruptive_phenomena
(9) 2012: Super Sunspot Cycle Peak
http://www.howtosurvive2012.com/htm_night/sun_05.htm
(10) Hand pumps for water wells:
http://www.baker-mfg.com/domestic_new/hand_pump_stands/
http://www.bisonpumps.com/
http://www.solar4power.com/solar-power-water-pump.html
http://www.survivalunlimited.com/waterpumps.htm
http://www.do-it-yourself-pumps.com/handpumps.htm
Reference / Sources (#4)
(11) Other YouTube.com videos about EMP as of 11/2010 -- Seeing is believing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76m5EBzVDc0&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6HslUkHd4o
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpuyPfAZRTU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFZo5PqvEak
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wujJ-eyacWg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yugfKsFcvhU&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z01hJqwLPrU
Reference / Sources (#5)
• (12) "33 Minutes: Electromagnetic Pulse"
Produced by The Heritage Foundation, Washington, DC
‘This excerpt from “33 Minutes: Protecting America in the New Missile Age”, discusses what could happen if the United States suffered an Electromagnetic Pulse…’
http://www.heritage.org/Multimedia/Video/2010/12/33-Minutes-Electromagnetic-Pulse
http://33-minutes.com/33-minutes/
http://33-minutes.com/33-minutes/about.htm
http://33-minutes.com/33-minutes/contact-an-expert.htm
David A. Palella Founder
EMP Defense Council©
[ a for-profit business unit of BioScience Ventures Inc.]
San Diego, California cell: 619-787-5767 email: [email protected]
http://EMP411.blogspot.comh
http://twitter.com/EMP911
Entire contents Copyright November 2010 by David A. Palella. All rights reserved.
Contact Information -- # 1
EMP Defense Council© -- Preparing for Electro-Magnetic Pulse
http://www.linkedin.com/e/vgh/3702799/
Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) Defense Council(C) Founded in San Diego, California on Pearl Harbor Day [ 07 Dec 2010 ]
http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=695425
Entire contents Copyright November 2010 by David A. Palella. All rights reserved.
Contact Information -- # 2