emission inventory and modelling in india · iim ahmedabad key contributors to india's ghg...
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IIM Ahmedabad
P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of Management
Ahmedabad, India
8th AIM International WorkshopNIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 13-15, 2003
Emission Inventory and Modelling in India
Analysis Using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model
IIM Ahmedabad
Overview
Emissions Inventory for India
Future Emissions for India Large Point Sources Analysis
Non CO2 Emissions
Future Scenarios for India
South-Asia Regional Cooperation
IIM Ahmedabad
Emissions Inventory for India
IIM Ahmedabad
Emissions Inventory for India
Emissions (Tg) 1990 1995 2000 CAGR *
Carbon dioxide 593 778 983 4.9
Methane 17.050 18.050 18.630 1.2
N2
O 0.213 0.251 0.308 3.8
SO2
3.540 4.640 5.02 5.3
NOX
2.640 3.460 4.660 5.0
CO2
equivalent GHG 1016 1234 1469 3.5
* Compounded Annual Growth Rate over 1990-2000 (%)
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Key Contributors to India's GHG emissions (2000)
Sources Emission % share Main emission sources Coal based electricity CO2 29.9 50 large plants Steel industry CO2 8.8 5 large plants Cement industry CO2 5.1 50 large plants Livestock related CH4, N2O 12.6 Highly dispersed Paddy cultivation CH4 6.6 Highly dispersed Biomass consumption CH4, N2O 5.2 Highly dispersed Synthetic fertilizer use N2O 4.1 Highly dispersed Transport sector CO2 9.5 Highly dispersed and mobile Waste disposal CH4 3.8 40 large waste dumps Other sources CO2, CH4, N2O 14.4 Varied and dispersed All India (Tg) 1469 As above
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India Emission Trends (Tg)
Carbon dioxide Methane
1616.5
1717.5
1818.5
1919.5
1990 1995 2000
Emis
sion
s(T
g)0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990 1995 2000
Emis
sion
s (T
g)
Growth rate 4.9%
Growth rate 1.2%
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India Emission Trends (Tg)
SO2 and NOx N2O
01234567
1990 1995 2000
Emis
sion
s (T
g)
SO2 (GR 5.3%)
NOx (GR 4.9%)N2O Growth rate 3.9%
00.050.1
0.150.2
0.250.3
0.35
1990 1995 2000
Emis
sion
s(T
g)
N2O (GR 3.8%)
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Emission Inventory: GIS Analysis
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GIS Layers
Coal Mining
Aluminum
Paper
Power (Coal)
PointSource data Layers
Display on Base Map
Emission information
Extract
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CO2 and SO2 Emission Distribution (2000)SO2CO2
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Hot-spots of CO2 and SO2 have high correlation with coal consumption
Thermal power plants (Coal), large cities (Oil) and industrial towns – main hot-spots
Top 20 districts growth rate higher than national average
Least 400 contribution decreased but emissions marginally increased
CO2 and SO2 Emission Distribution (2000)
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LPS Location MapSectors LPS
coveredPower 94Steel 11Cement 85Fertilizer 31Paper 33Sugar 28Caustic Soda 19Crude refinery 12Petrochemical 14HNO3 manufacturing 5H2SO4 manufacturing 63Aluminum 3Copper smelting 8Lead smelting 5Zinc smelting 3Alcohol production 14Coal mining 32Natural gas production 9N. gas transportation 12Crude oil production 7Municipal solid waste 14Other industries 7Total 509
1995
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Million Tons
LPS: CO2 Emissions1995
CO2
Sectors
No. ofLPS LPS (Tg) LPS/Total
Power 94 365 47
Steel 11 48 6
Cement 85 68 9
Fertilizer 31 14 2
Sugar 28 0.7 0.09
Paper 33 2.9 0.37
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Future Emissions for India
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National Level Emission Projections for India
Emissions (Tg) 2000 2010 2020 2030 CO2 983 1556 2189 2945 Methane 18.63 20.08 21.73 24.36 N2O 0.308 0.508 0.702 0.838 CO2 equivalent GHG 1469 2134 2889 3716 SO2 5.02 5.87 6.25 5.77 NOX 4.66 6.08 7.64 8.53
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LPS Database
Data for increasing numbers of LPS
Coverage of gases: CO2 and SO2
Emissions factors for India
Projections up to year 2030
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LPS Locations2000 2030
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AIM/Local System
Input Filefor GAMS
Output filefrom GAMS
Sum of Value Energy_Device RemovalCK1 CK2 COLBLR
Year NON NON NON SFGD_bas e 4,700,000 1 ,300,000 24 ,528,000 1,752,000 1995 4,700,000 1 ,300,000 24 ,528,000 1,752,000 1996 6,000,000 26 ,134,533 1,664,400 1997 6,180,000 27 ,624,834 1,584,466 1998 6,365,400 29 ,010,707 1,510,876 1999 6,556,362 30 ,301,836 1,442,662 2000 6,753,053 31 ,506,418 1,379,091 2001 6,955,645 32 ,631,543 1,319,587 2002 7,164,314 33 ,683,447 1,263,694 2003 7,379,244 34 ,667,680 1,211,035 2004 7,600,621 35 ,589,232 1,161,300 2005 7,828,640 36 ,452,618 1,114,226
Input filefor IDRISI
AIM/LocalDatabase System
AIM/Local ModelGAMS version
GAMS
IDRISI32
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Database Generation
Sectoral demand projections on the basis of macro-economic parameters
Thirty year time series GDPGovernment projectionsExpert opinion
LPS demand on the basis of sectoral demand elasticity and past production trendsDemand over and above LPS capacities assigned to Area Sources
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LPS Coverage for IndiaSector Sub-sectors LPS covered
2000 2010 2020 2030Power (coal & Oil) 82 111 131 150Power (natural gas) 12 17 20 23Steel 10 16 22 28Cement * 85 98 110 123Fertilizer 31 41 52 62Paper 33 38 43 48Sugar 28 28 29 30
Energy
Caustic Soda 19 21 23 26H2SO4 manufacturing 63 64 66 68Aluminium (Al) 3 4 5 5Copper ore smelting (Cu) 8 9 10 11Lead ore smelting (Pb) 5 6 7 8
Industrial processes
Zinc ore smelting (Zn) 3 4 5 5
Total 382 457 523 587
* Process emissions included
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CO2 from Energy Sector LPS
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Mill
ion
Ton
Power (Coal & Oil) Power (Gas) Steel Cement Fertilizer Paper Sugar
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Mill
ion
Ton
Power (Coal & Oil) Power (Gas) Steel Cement Fertilizer Paper Sugar
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LPS contribution to CO2
2000 2010 2020 20301 to 25 35.2 32.5 31 31.526 to 100 20.9 20.3 20.7 20.8101 to 200 6.7 7.8 8.6 8.7All other LPS 1.3 2.7 3 3.9Total LPS Share 64.1 63.3 63.3 64.9
Largest LPSPercentage CO2 Emissions
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CO2 Emission Distribution2000 2030
05
10 15
30
40
20
Million Tons< 3 3 - 66 - 99 - 12 12 - 15 15 - 18 18 - 21 > 21
Million Tons
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SO2 from Energy Sector LPS
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
5
2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Mill
ion
Ton
Power Steel Cement Fertilizer Paper Sugar
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SO2 Emission Distribution2000 2030
< 0.010.01-0.017
0.017-0.0260.026-0.0350.035-0.044 0.044-0.0530.053-0.060
> 0.060
Million Tons < 0.010.03
0.07
0.15
< 0.20
0.11
Million Tons < 0.01
0.03
0.07
0.15
< 0.20
0.11
Million Tons
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Future Non CO2 Emissions
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CO2, CH4, N2O and CO2 Equivalent GHG Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Years
Inde
x 20
00 =
100
CO2
Methane
N2OCO2 equivalent
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year
CO
2eq
uiva
lent
(% S
hare
)
CO2 Methane N2O
Share of CO2, CH4 and N2O in CO2Equivalent GHG Emissions
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Contributions to Methane Emissions
05
101520253035404550
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Years
% S
hare
agriculture
livestock
wasteothers
IIM Ahmedabad
0102030405060708090
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Years
Min
ing
Shar
e (%
) Opencast mining
Underground mining
Shares of opencast and underground mining in methane emissions
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Methane emissions in Mitigation scenarios
15
17
19
21
23
25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Years
Met
hane
(Tg)
Reference
Medium
Strong
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N2O emissions across scenarios
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Years
N2O
(Tg)
Reference
MediumStrong
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Technology Shares for CH4 MitigationSector Technology Type 2010 2020 2030 Med Strong Med Strong Med Strong
Existing 0.004 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.07 0.13 CH4 recovery Innovative 0 0.002 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.18 Existing 0.001 0.003 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.11 Waste to
electricity Innovative 0 0.001 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 Existing 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.17 0.18 0.26 Waste reduction
to organic fertilizer
Innovative 0 0.02 0.05 0.14 0.08 0.23
MSW
Waste segregation for material reuse & recycle
Existing 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.12 0.25
Degasification & pipe injection
Existing 0.005 0.02 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.18 CBM recovery
Catalytic oxidation
Innovative 0 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.08 0.14
Existing 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.10 Enteric fermentation
Improved digesters for animals
Innovative 0 0.004 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.14
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Technology Shares for N2O Mitigation2010 2020 2030 Sector Technology Type
Med Strong Med Strong Med Strong Existing 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.14 0.2 0.25 CAN
fertilizers in crops with aerobic conditions
Innovative 0 0.02 0.03 0.09 0.1 0.2
Existing 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.15 0.26
Synthetic fertilizer use
Ammonium (NH4-N) fertilizers in wetland crops
Innovative 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.2
Existing 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.17 0.18 0.25 Soil emissions
Use of nitrification inhibitors
Innovative 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.18
Existing 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.19 0.23 0.28 HNO3 prodn.
NSCR use Innovative 0 0.02 0.08 0.11 0.18 0.27
CAN (calcium ammonium nitrate), NSCR (Non selective catalytic reduction)
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Future Scenario for India
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Matrix of Indian scenarios
Market integration
Centralization
Decentralization
IA1High Growth
IA2Business ass usual
IB1Sustainable Development
IB2Self Reliance
Governance
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Scenarios and Key Drivers
Scenario Key Drivers Implications on critical parameters of the scenarios and modelling analysis
IA1: High Growth
Competition and private participation, Access to global finance and technology, Technology R&D, transfer and capacity building Reduced risk perception
Fuel price (↑), technology cost (↓), efficiency (↑), Transmission and Distribution losses (↓), Investment capacity (↑), Technology choices (↑), Discount rate (↓), Earlier penetration of advanced technologies
IA2: BAU Case
GDP growth, Energy efficiency, Non-fossil fuels vs. fossil fuels, Oil consumption Technological change, Movement on the fuel ladder
Sectoral demands (↑↓), investment limits (↑↓), fuel supply (↑↓), Range of Fossil fuel prices (↑↓), Relative fossil fuel price adjustments, Efficiencies of technologies using oil and gas
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Scenarios and Key Drivers Contd..
Scenario Key Drivers Implications on critical parameters of the scenarios and modelling analysis
IB1: Sustainable Development
Strong environmental awareness and conservationist values, Environmental integrity, consumption changes, dematerialization, cooperation, Shift away from fossil fuels, Local capacity building, Rural energy and electricity development
Environmental constraints (↑), energy and materials content of goods/ services (↓), electricity consumption due to efficiency improvements (↓), Transmission and Distribution losses (↓), Penetration of clean and renewable technologies (↑), Fossil fuel prices (↑)
IB2: Regional Development
GDP growth, population, Local emissions, Productivity, Importance of Agriculture, Resource intensity, Self-reliance
Population growth (↑), Sectoral demand (↑↓), Investments (↓), Penetration of clean and renewable technologies (↑↓), Agriculture share high, Local resource intensive economy
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India: Population Projection
High
Medium
Low
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
2001 2011 2021 2031
Years
Pop
ulat
ion
(Mill
ion)
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India: GDP Projection
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2010 2020 2030
Years
GD
P In
dex
(200
0 =
100) IA1
IB1IA2IB2
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Growth in Energy Forms in Different Scenarios
Oil & Gas Coal Renewables IA1 High Moderate Moderate IA2 Moderate High Low IB1 Moderate Low High IB2 Low Moderate Low
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South-Asia Regional Cooperation
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Why South-Asia Energy-Electricity Market Integration?
Diversity of Energy Resources among countriesIndia relies on poor quality domestic coal
Bangladesh has reserves of Natural Gas
Nepal and Bhutan have Hydro power potential
Sri Lanka needs to import fuel for power
Pakistan has an important role as a transit state
Little Energy/ Electricity Trade in the Region
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Energy Resource Consumption (2000)
51%Oil (89%) – Mostly importsSri Lanka
33%Oil (55%) – Mostly importsPakistan
81%Oil (74%) – Mostly importsNepal
55%Imported oilMaldives
35%Coal (52%) – Mostly Domestic India
95%Imported oil and coalBhutan
47%Domestic Gas (65%)Bangladesh
Traditional Biomass(as % of total energy
consumption)
Dominant fuel in commercial energy
consumption
Country
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Energy MarketsGasCoal ElectricityHydro (Elec./Water)
Regional Energy-Electricity Markets
Nepal/BhutanHydro
Gas
Gas/Oil
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South-Asia Cooperation Scenarios
Country specific analysis using the AIM/ Trend model
Interface of the trend results with bottom-up optimization model for South-Asia regional analysis
Three specific scenarios have been developedDynamics as Usual
Medium Cooperation Scenario
Accelerated Cooperation Scenario
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Total Primary Energy Supply Saving
• Cumulative Saving in ACS: 60 EJ in 20 years (2010-2030)
• This is equivalent to $180 billion cumulative
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2020 2030
% S
avin
g
MCS ACS
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Reduction in Carbon Emissions
0
4
8
12
16
2010 2020 2030
% D
ecre
ase
MCS ACS
• Cumulative Savings in ACS: 1.4 Billion tonnes of Carbon.
• This is equivalent to $28 Billion saving
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Benefits from Cooperation (Cumulative from 2010-30)
Benefit (Saving)
$ Billion % of Region's GDP
Energy (Direct Benefits)
Energy 60 Exa Joule 180 0.48 Investment in Energy Supply Technologies
72 0.19
Investment in Energy Demand Technologies
69 0.18
Environment (Indirect Benefits) Carbon 1.4 Billion Ton 28 0.08 Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 50 Million Ton 10 0.03
Total Direct and Indirect Benefits 359 0.98 Spillover Benefits
Water 16 GW additional hydro capacity Flood Control From additional dams Competitiveness Reduced unit energy/electricity cost
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Future Agenda 2003-04
Regional Modelling of Non CO2 emissionsInventory of six Kyoto gases for year 2000Assessment of innovative technologiesNew model with developing country focusRefinement of scenariosFuture emission projections for new scenarios using AIM family models
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Thank You