emge cutsize monthly monitor

21
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR SENTIMENT, PRICES AND MARKET DATA MAY 2019 EMGE Paper Industry Consultants

Upload: others

Post on 23-Jul-2022

4 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITORSENTIMENT, PRICES AND MARKET DATA

MAY 2019

EMGEP a p e r I n d u s t r y C o n s u l t a n t s

Page 2: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page A

TERMS & CONDITIONS Our products are supplied under the following terms and conditions, which cover material in all forms including paper, electronic, etc.:

CONFIDENTIALITY All information provided is strictly confidential unless otherwise stated. The Client is responsible for safeguarding this confidentiality. The information contained in our publications is provided only for legitimate commercial purposes; it is not to be used in legal or anti-trust action against others.

COPYRIGHT At EMGE we aim to assist clients in using our information, however it is your individual responsibility as well as that of your company to abide by the rules and regulations as set out under European & International copyright law. Terms for standard usage Making copies of our work is not permitted. No part of any EMGE publication may be reproduced in any

form, for external or internal use, without prior written permission from EMGE. You do, however, have permission to replicate small samples of non-sensitive information as required, on

the condition that you clearly acknowledge the source. If you have any doubts as to the legitimate use of our information, please contact EMGE. Terms for Groupwide Distribution Licence holders only Copies of EMGE publications purchased under a Groupwide Distribution Licence may be distributed

internally within the group only. Normally licences are granted under a regional basis, unless specified as a Global Groupwide Licence.

None of the material provided may be copied or shown to other companies, industry consultants, finance companies or investment houses, under any circumstances.

You do, however, have permission to replicate small samples of non-sensitive information as required, on the condition that you clearly acknowledge the source.

If you have any doubts as to the legitimate use of our information, please contact EMGE.

DISCLAIMER While we aim to ensure that the information contained in our publications is as reliable as possible, we cannot accept responsibility for actions or decisions taken by the client, other company or person arising from our work.

EMGE & Co. Ltd. PO Box 200 Truro Cornwall TR1 1FN United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)1872 581000 | Fax: +44 (0)1872 264464 Email: [email protected] | URL: www.emge.com

Page 3: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page B

Table of Contents Page

Introduction 1 

Methodology and Data 1 

EMGE Interview Results Summary - Europe 2 

Cutsize Prices - Europe 6 

Data Summary - Europe 8 

Demand & Trade - Europe 9 

Shipments, Capacity & Operating Ratios - Europe 12 Costs & Drivers 14 

Global Focus 15 

Global Cutsize Prices 15 

Global Cutsize Demand 16 Regional Cutsize Paper Demand (3mma Growth) 17 

List of Figures

1. Results summary 2 

2. Cutsize Market Index 3 

3. Demand 3 

4. Delivery Times 4 

5. Inventory Levels (Buyer/Merchants) 4 

6. Pricing Sentiment 5 

7. Business Prospects 5 

8. Cutsize Prices by Country (C Grade) 6 

9. Average Cutsize Prices (A, B & C Grade) 6 

10. Comparative Cutsize Prices – EURO/t 7 

11. Comparative Cutsize Prices – GBP/t 7 

12. Demand Growth – W.Europe-16 10 

13. Demand Growth – E.Europe-14 10 

14. Imports 11 

15. Exports 11 

16. Shipments Growth (3mma) 13 

17. Operating Ratios (3mma) 13 

Page 4: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 1

Introduction

In this document, you will find the latest EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor, which

provides data for APRIL / MAY 2019, together with charts and tables showing the

development of Demand, Shipments, Capacity, Operating Ratios, Prices, Delivery Times,

Inventories and Short Term Business Prospects for Uncoated Woodfree Cutsize Paper in

Europe, as well as charts and data on Cutsize markets outside of Europe.

DEFINITIONS:

W.EUROPE-16 is defined as Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy,

Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.

E.EUROPE-14 is defined as Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Latvia,

Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia (excludes Russia & CIS).

DEMAND is defined as apparent consumption of paper, i.e. the volume of shipments plus imports less

exports.

DELIVERIES / SHIPMENTS are a proxy for Production - sales from producers in one region to all world

regions.

CAPACITY numbers are calculated on a Monthly basis, derived from the EMGE global mill and machine

database. They take account of changes in capacity (improvements and investments) and are adjusted for

monthly variations in availability, but not for market-related downtime, strikes etc.

The SHIPMENTS TO CAPACITY RATIO is a proxy for Operating Ratios and therefore may not

necessarily equate precisely to mill Operating Rates.

Methodology and Data 

The data in this report are from EMGE’s proprietary database, compiled from a wide range of

sources, as well as market interviews. EMGE conducts a regular programme of market interviews

with respondents from across various sectors of the Cutsize market, including Paper Merchants,

Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and Office Stationery Distributors (OSDs). These

interviews are conducted by telephone and respondents are asked for their opinions on the

current state of business at that moment in time, including Demand, Delivery Times, Inventory

Levels and Price Levels, as well as Business Prospects in the short term. The results are provided

on an aggregated basis throughout and confidentiality of company and private data is maintained.

In order to make this document as easy as possible to use, while at the same time providing a

great deal of information and data, we summarise the key issues in the charts and tables below.

Page 5: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 2

EMGE Interview Results Summary - Europe

Index falls for 6th consecutive month in May

FIGURE 1. RESULTS SUMMARY

Scale Previous Latest

100 = Good Conditions CUTSIZE MARKET INDEX 50 = Stable 55.6 53.9 v 0 = Poor Conditions 51-100 = Improving DEMAND 50 = Stable 37.5 38.3 ^ 0-49 = Worsening DELIVERY TIMES Balance Level (Weeks) 4.0 4.0 o INVENTORY LEVELS 100 = High BUYERS/MERCHANTS 50 = Medium 71.4 68.4 v 0 = Low Avge number of days 28.5 27.4 v PRICING SENTIMENT 51-100 = Moving Up From MILL 50 = Stable 66.2 65.3 v 0-49 = Moving Down 51-100 = Optimistic BUSINESS PROSPECTS 50 = Stable 47.9 37.5 v 0-49 = Pessimistic

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

The table above provides an overview of market developments for the latest month,

based on feedback from EMGE’s interview respondents.

Respondent feedback weakened on balance in May 2019, compared to the previous

month. Of the current factors, Demand improved, Delivery Times were stable,

Inventory Levels fell again and Pricing Sentiment weakened, but it was arguably the

collapse in Short-Term Business Prospects that pushed the overall Index lower.

These latest developments led to a fall in the EMGE Cutsize Market Index in May 2019,

from 55.6 to 53.9.

The following pages show the historical development of each factor in the table above.

This table shows the most

recent month’s aggregated

results of survey responses,

together with the latest EMGE

Cutsize Market Index and

changes in the Tendency

(movement from the previous

month).

Page 6: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 3

FIGURE 2. CUTSIZE MARKET INDEX

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun-

16Ju

l-16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-16

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-17

May

-17

Jun-

17Ju

l-17

Aug

-17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-17

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun-

18Ju

l-18

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-19

May

-19

EMGE Cut Size Market Index

Improving Market Conditions

Worsening Market Conditions Source: EMGE

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

FIGURE 3. DEMAND

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

MA

Y'1

8

JUN

'18

JUL

'18

AU

G'1

8

SE

P'1

8

OC

T'1

8

NO

V'1

8

DE

C'1

8

JAN

'19

FE

B'1

9

MA

R'1

9

AP

R'1

9

MA

Y'1

9Demand

Improving

Worsening Source: EMGE

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

The EMGE Cutsize Market

Index provides a general

indicator of overall market

conditions in the European

Cutsize market. A value of 50

indicates stable conditions.

The Index has been

consistently positive for the

past 19 months. The most

recent month, May 2019, was

nevertheless the lowest reading

of those 19 months.

On average, our interview

respondents rated Demand as

being still very poor, although

falling slightly less steeply in

May.

Page 7: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 4

FIGURE 4. DELIVERY TIMES

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

4.9

5.1

MA

Y'1

8

JUN

'18

JUL

'18

AU

G'1

8

SE

P'1

8

OC

T'1

8

NO

V'1

8

DE

C'1

8

JAN

'19

FE

B'1

9

MA

R'1

9

AP

R'1

9

MA

Y'1

9

Delivery Times (Weeks)

Source: EMGE

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

FIGURE 5. INVENTORY LEVELS (BUYER/MERCHANTS)

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

MA

Y'1

8

JUN

'18

JUL

'18

AU

G'1

8

SE

P'1

8

OC

T'1

8

NO

V'1

8

DE

C'1

8

JAN

'19

FE

B'1

9

MA

R'1

9

AP

R'1

9

MA

Y'1

9

Inventory Levels (Days)

Source: EMGE

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

According to our interview

respondents, Delivery Times

remained at 4.0 weeks in May

2019.

Buyer/Merchant Inventory

levels slipped for a third month

in May 2019, from 71.4 to

68.4.

Page 8: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 5

FIGURE 6. PRICING SENTIMENT

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

MA

Y'1

8

JUN

'18

JUL

'18

AU

G'1

8

SE

P'1

8

OC

T'1

8

NO

V'1

8

DE

C'1

8

JAN

'19

FE

B'1

9

MA

R'1

9

AP

R'1

9

MA

Y'1

9

Source: EMGE

Mill Price Movements (Index, 50 = Stable)

Rising

Falling

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

FIGURE 7. BUSINESS PROSPECTS

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

MA

Y'1

8

JUN

'18

JUL

'18

AU

G'1

8

SE

P'1

8

OC

T'1

8

NO

V'1

8

DE

C'1

8

JAN

'19

FE

B'1

9

MA

R'1

9

AP

R'1

9

MA

Y'1

9Short Term Business Prospects

Optimistic

Pessimistic Source: EMGE

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

Cutsize pricing sentiment

weakened in May 2019, for

the first time since December

2016.

However, it so far remains

positive, despite prices falling in

May 2019.

Business Prospects collapsed in

May 2019, falling even deeper

into negative territory.

The reading fell from 47.9 to

37.5.

Page 9: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 6

Cutsize Prices - Europe

FIGURE 8. CUTSIZE PRICES BY COUNTRY (C GRADE)

Germany France Italy Spain AVGE GBP£ to UK

EURO€/t EURO€/t EURO€/t EURO€/t EURO€/t EURO€ GBP£/t

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

Apr-19

May-19

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

The table above provides EMGE mill-delivered price data for Cutsize papers in Europe,

based on 80gsm C (Economy) grade. In May 2019, EMGE’s average C grade prices fell in

all monitored markets, in local currencies.

FIGURE 9. AVERAGE CUTSIZE PRICES (A, B & C GRADE)

EURO/t EURO/t EURO/t GBP/t GBP/t GBP/t

A B C A B C

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

Apr-19

May-19

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

Taking our average Mainland European and UK prices for C (Economy) grade from Figure

8 (columns in bold), we have calculated average price upcharges for B (Standard) grade

and A (Premium) grade, based on recent feedback from buyers and sellers in the market.

Overall respondent feedback suggests that B grade prices are currently around €45/t or

£40/t higher than C grade, on average, while A grade prices are a further €50/t or £50/t

higher than B grade, on average.

This table shows EMGE mill-

delivered price data for Cutsize

papers in Europe, based on

80gsm C (Economy) grade.

In local currencies, prices fell in

all monitored markets in May

2019.

This table shows EMGE

average mill-delivered price

data for A (Premium), B

(Standard) and C (Economy)

grades.

Page 10: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 7

FIGURE 10. COMPARATIVE CUTSIZE PRICES (C GRADE) – EURO/T

780

800

820

840

860

880

900

920

940

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-19

May

-19

EURO€/tonne

Ger

UK

Source: EMGE

Fra

Italy

Spain

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

FIGURE 11. COMPARATIVE CUTSIZE PRICES (C GRADE) – GBP/T

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

GBP£/tonne

Ger

UK

Source: EMGE

Fra

Italy

Spain

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

In May 2019, prices for branded C grade fell in all monitored European markets (in local

currency terms). However, exchange-rate movements meant that UK prices fell a little

more steeply in Euro terms, relative to Euro-based prices.

Prices fell in local currencies in

all monitored markets in May

2019.

In Euro terms, UK prices fell

slightly more steeply, because

of a weaker GB£ / stronger

Euro.

By comparison, the Euro-based

prices hardly fell at all in GB£

terms.

Page 11: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 8

Data Summary - Europe

EUROPEAN CUTSIZE SUMMARYMONTHLY MONITOR Month 4STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Year 2019

APPARENT DEMAND Current Month Growth %pa Year-to-Date Growth %pa 3mma

W.EUROPE-16

E.EUROPE-14

EUROPE-30

DELIVERIES Current Month Growth %pa Year-to-Date Growth %pa 3mma

W.EUROPE-16

E.EUROPE-14

EUROPE-30

CAPACITY Current Month Growth %pa Year-to-Date Growth %pa 3mma

W.EUROPE-16

E.EUROPE-14

EUROPE-30

SHIPMENTS TO Last 3

CAPACITY RATIO % 2019 2018 2019 2018 Months

W.EUROPE-16

E.EUROPE-14

EUROPE-30

Current Month Year-to-Date

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL– this information is not to be shown or copied to people outside our client’s company.

The table above summarises Apparent Demand, Shipments, Capacity and Operating Ratios for Cutsize Paper in Europe-30 (W.Europe-16 and E.Europe-14), based on data for the latest month.

This table provides a summary

of Demand, Trade, Deliveries,

Capacity and Operating Ratios

for the latest month.

Page 12: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 9

Demand & Trade - Europe

EUROPEAN CUTSIZE DEMANDMONTHLY MONITOR Month 4STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Year 2019

APPARENT DEMAND Current Month Growth %pa Year-to-Date Growth %pa 3mma

BELGIUM

FRANCE

GERMANY

IBERIA

ITALY

NETHERLANDS

NORDIC

UK

OTHERS

W.EUROPE-16

CZECH REPUBLIC

GREECE

HUNGARY

POLAND

ROMANIA

SLOVAKIA

OTHERS

E.EUROPE-14

EUROPE-30

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL– this information is not to be shown or copied to people outside our client’s company.

Apparent Demand for UWF Cutsize Paper in Europe-30 fell by -0.4% in April 2019,

due to a fall of -1.3% in W.Europe-16, outweighing growth of +4.8% in E.Europe-14.

This was broadly on trend for W.Europe-16, but way above trend in E.Europe-14.

This table provides a detailed

country-by-country breakdown

of Demand for the latest

month.

Page 13: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 10

FIGURE 12. DEMAND GROWTH – W.EUROPE-16

3MMA

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%M

ar-1

8

Apr

-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Source: EMGE

Demand Growth (3mma)

W.EUROPE-16

Source: EMGE

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

FIGURE 13. DEMAND GROWTH – E.EUROPE-14

3MMA

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Apr

-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

Source: EMGE

Demand Growth (3mma)

E.EUROPE-14Source: EMGE

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

These charts show the 3mma

growth/declines of Cutsize paper

demand in W.Europe-16 and

E.Europe-14.

Page 14: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 11

FIGURE 14. IMPORTS

Europe-30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Apr‐18 May‐18 Jun‐18 Jul‐18 Aug‐18 Sep‐18 Oct‐18 Nov‐18 Dec‐18 Jan‐19 Feb‐19 Mar‐19 Apr‐19

'000t

Brazil

Other

Indonesia / Thailand

USA

Russia

Source: EMGE

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

FIGURE 15. EXPORTS

Europe-30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Apr‐18 May‐18 Jun‐18 Jul‐18 Aug‐18 Sep‐18 Oct‐18 Nov‐18 Dec‐18 Jan‐19 Feb‐19 Mar‐19 Apr‐19

'000t

Other E.Europe

North America

Latin America

Asia / OC

AF / ME

Source: EMGE

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

This chart shows the monthly

development of Europe-30

Cutsize paper imports by source

region.

This chart shows the monthly

development of Europe-30

Cutsize paper exports by

regional destination.

Page 15: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 12

Shipments, Capacity & Operating Ratios - Europe

SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCEMONTHLY MONITOR Month 4STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Year 2019

DELIVERIES Current Month Growth %pa Year-to-Date Growth %pa 3mma

W.EUROPE-16

E.EUROPE-14

EUROPE-30

CAPACITY Current Month Growth %pa Year-to-Date Growth %pa 3mma

W.EUROPE-16

E.EUROPE-14

EUROPE-30

SHIPMENTS TO Last 3

CAPACITY RATIO % 2019 2018 2019 2018 Months

W.EUROPE-16

E.EUROPE-14

EUROPE-30

Current Month Year-to-Date

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL– this information is not to be shown or copied to people outside our client’s company.

Europe-30 Shipments and Capacity grew in April 2019.

These developments resulted in a Europe-30 Operating Ratio of 87% for the month of

April 2019 and 89% for the last 3 months, which was the lowest 3mma Operating Ratio

for almost a year.

This table provides data on

Deliveries, Capacity and

Operating Ratios for the latest

month.

Page 16: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 13

FIGURE 16. SHIPMENTS GROWTH (3MMA)

Europe-30

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-19

Shipments

Demand

Growth (3mma), Europe-30

Source: EMGE

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

FIGURE 17. OPERATING RATIOS (3MMA)

Europe-30

90%

88%

92%

94%

97%

94%

93%

92%

90%

91% 91% 91%

89%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-19

Operating Ratios (3mma)

OVER-SUPPLY ZONE

BALANCED ZONE

SHORT SUPPLY ZONE

FLAT OUT ZONE

Source: EMGE

EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019

This chart shows the historical

development of Cutsize paper

shipments from the Europe-30

region.

The (3mma) falls in shipments

and demand have now been

very similar for several months,

suggesting a fairly neutral

Trade balance.

The European Cutsize

Operating Ratio (on a 3mma

basis) fell to around 89% in

the last three months, which

was the lowest 3mma reading

for almost a year.

Page 17: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 14

Costs & Drivers

SERVICE SECTOR PMI, EUROPE SERVICE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT, EUROPE

STATIONERY RETAIL SALES, UK

MAIL VOLUMES, GERMANY

PULP PRICES (BEKP), EUROPE SORTED OFFICE PAPER PRICES, UK

WRITING INSTRUMENTS, EUROPE

PRINTER SHIPMENTS, EUROPE

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119

160

165

170

175

May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19

% pa

% pa

GBP/t

% pa

Source: ONS

Source: IDC

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19

Index (Jan‐17=100)

Source: Let's RecycleSource: Hawkins Wright

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19

Source: IHS Markit

>50 = Growth

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119

% pa

Source: Deutsche Post DHL

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19

Source: Eurostat

Page 18: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 15

Global Focus

Global Cutsize Prices

In May 2019, prices fell in Europe, but were stable in the USA and Southeast Asia.

GLOBAL CUTSIZE PRICESMONTHLY MONITOR Month 5STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Year 2019

PRICES (LOCAL CURRENCY) Current Month Month-1 Month-3 Month-6 Month-12

GERMANY, EURO/t

UK, GBP/t

USA, USD/t

SE ASIA (CN, HK, ID, KR, TH, VT), USD/t

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Comparative Cutsize Prices

USA

UK

GER

Source: EMGE

ASIA

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Comparative Cutsize Prices

USA

UK

GER

EURO/t

USD/t

ASIA

Source: EMGE

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL – this information is not to be shown or copied to people outside our client’s company.

In local currencies, Cutsize prices in May 2019 were stable in the USA and Southeast Asia,

but fell in Europe.

Nevertheless, SE Asian prices again remained clearly the lowest of those that we monitor.

This table compares global

prices for Cutsize papers in

USD/t and Euro€/t, based on

80gsm C-grade.

Page 19: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 16

Global Cutsize Demand

GLOBAL CUTSIZE DEMANDMONTHLY MONITOR Month 3STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Year 2019

DEMAND ('000t) Current Month Growth %pa Year-to-Date Growth %pa 3mma

W.EUROPE

E.EUROPE (inc. Russia/Other)

N.AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA / ANZAC

AFRICA / MIDDLE EAST

WORLD TOTAL

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

Jan

-13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-

13S

ep-1

3N

ov-

13Ja

n-1

4M

ar-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

No

v-14

Jan

-15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-

15S

ep-1

5N

ov-

15Ja

n-1

6M

ar-1

6M

ay-1

6Ju

l-16

Sep

-16

No

v-16

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17S

ep-1

7N

ov-

17Ja

n-1

8M

ar-1

8M

ay-1

8Ju

l-18

Sep

-18

No

v-18

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

Global Cutsize Demand Composite Leading Indicator3MMA Growth

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL – this information is not to be shown or copied to people outside our client’s company.

NOTE – this information is updated on a quarterly basis.

Global Cut-Size UWF demand fell by -2.5% in March 2019 and by -2.4% for Q1 2019.

These were broadly in line with the -2.7% fall in 2018 as a whole.

Demand fell across all reported regions in March and Q1 2019, most heavily in Eastern

Europe (-6.6% in Q1) and Latin America (-4.4%), with most other regions down by around

-1% to -2% for the quarter.

Page 20: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 17

Regional Cutsize Paper Demand (3mma Growth)

WEST EUROPE-16 EAST EUROPE (INC. RUSSIA)

ASIA / ANZAC

NORTH AMERICA

AFRICA / MIDDLE EAST

LATIN AMERICA

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Mar

-18

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

3mma

W.Europe-16

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Mar

-18

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

3mma

E.Europe (inc. Russia)

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Mar

-18

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%M

ar-1

8

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

3mma

Latin America

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

Mar

-18

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

3mma

Asia / Anzac

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Mar

-18

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

3mma

Africa / Middle East

3mma

N.America

These charts show the

historical development

(3mma growth) of cutsize

demand in each reported

region.

Page 21: EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor

CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019

Page 18

BLANK PAGE