emerging trends in the software industry
DESCRIPTION
The presentation is a slimmed down version of a presentation I'm delivering to a group of large financial investment executives. I take a look at the trends that are emerging out of the impact of the last two years of economic crisis and start to paint a picture of what I believe the software industry will look like going forward.TRANSCRIPT
7-09 © 2009 IDC Copyright 2008 IDC
Michael Fauscette, Group Vice President, SBS
7-09 © 2009 IDC
Where We Stand
Source: Q2 & Q3 2008 Worldwide Black Books; IDC Downside Scenario Model 2
WW IT Spending
Worldwide GDP Forecast
7-09 © 2009 IDC Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
Applications Forecast Changes
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2008 (Early) 2008 (Dec) 2009 (Jan) 2009 (May)
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An Economic Unknown
4
$1-3 Trillion For Bank Bailouts Tax Cuts Smart Grid SMB Incentives Health Care Infrastructure Broadband Auto Manufacturers Green Building
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Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Consumption Models E
mer
ging
Im
pera
tives
Architecture
Sourcing a Process
Targets
7-09 © 2009 IDC
Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Consumption Models
Software as a Service / Cloud Applications
Open Source Software
7-09 © 2009 IDC Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
SaaS forecast comparison
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• IDC has increased its SaaS growth projection for 2009 from 36% growth to 42% growth over 2008.
• The percentage of U.S. firms which plan to spend at least 25% of their IT budgets on SaaS applications will increase from 23% in 2008 to nearly 45% in 2010.
Source: Economic Crisis Response: Worldwide Software as a Service Forecast Update (IDC #215504, January 2009)
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OSS Forecast
Source: Worldwide Open Source Software Forecast 2009 – 2013, July 2009
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Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Em
ergi
ng
Impe
rativ
es
Social Software Solutions
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The Social Enterprise
It’s not just “tools”, it’s changing processes
and culture
Democratization and Empowerment:
Spreading control across a broad audience, adding value, building relationships, conversations and
increasing transparency
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The Social Enterprise
Internal
External
Sales – Marketing – Product – Support - Service
Blogs – Communities – Social Networks - Ideasourcing – Microblogs – Syndication – Virtual Conference - Video
Wiki’s – Social Analytics – Collaboration – Mashups – Platforms -
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Social Software Solutions
Consumer Apps CRM Content
Apps
Online Community Platforms
Enablers Wiki Blogs +traditional Collab
Collab
Ideasourcing Social Customer Service Social SFA (predictive selling) Brand Monitoring / building
Wiki Blogs Ideasourcing
Social Analytics
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Social Software Solutions Vendors
Consumer Apps CRM Content
Apps
Online Community Platforms
Facebook LinkedIn MySpace Twitter Google Apps
SocialText Lotus Connections Sharepoint Jive Google Apps
Collab
Concursive UserVoice Oracle Sales Prospector Bright Idea Omniture
Google Apps Cisco Eos Reality Digital MyLife OneRiot Wink
Social Analytics
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Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Architecture
Service Oriented Architecture (SOA)
Event Based Architecture Unified Access to Content and Data
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Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Sourcing a Process
Build: Mashup, Process Modeling, Business Rules Buy: “Good Enough” v. “Best of Breed”
Outsource
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Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Targets
SMB’s Channels Partner to Partner
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Consolidation
Enter the Mega-ecosystem
Partners Coalesce Around Epicenters
Partner Consolidation
Hybrid Business Models
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The New Landscape of Tech
Mega Vendor
Acquisition Targets
Survivors
Start ups
HP, IBM, Microsoft, Oracle (Post Sun), Cisco, Intel, Google, Apple
1. Large >$1B, 2. vertical ISV’s, 3. Discontinuous innovators
Niche Markets, Redundant Portfolio, Too Unique
Discontinuous Innovators: future acquisition targets
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Oracle : Sun
Key Sun Assets: Java Solaris Storage
Key Opportunities: Appliances Storage
Open Source
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Enterprise Apps Deals Database
Enterprise Applications Deals Database: track, analyze, & summarize the buying behavior of enterprise applications deals around the world. IDC is the only research firm tracking these deals.
4,000-5,000 deals tracked annually Leading indicator for future purchasing
Provides an understanding of What was purchased? Types of buyers? Which segments? Why was it purchased? What is happening in the field?
IDC is also planning to expand our software deal tracking across additional market areas in 2010. IDC clients are eager to understand tactical buyer data that can be used in upcoming deals.
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Segmentations
Buyer Vendor Partner 23 Enterprise Applications Markets (ERM,
SCM, CRM, Ops & Mfg, Engineering) Product 8 Verticals Employee Size 3 Regions (Americas, Asia Pacific,
EMEA) Net New Customer vs Installed Base Announcement Date
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Sample Analysis From EA Deals DB SMBs remain steady buyers
Base: 4004 purchases SMB = Enterprises With Fewer Than 5,000 Employees Large = Enterprises With More Than 5,000 Employees
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Sample Analysis From EA Deals DB (Cont.) Net new customers become scarce
Base: 4004 purchases
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Sample Analysis From EA Deals DB (Cont.) Verticals that see growth from Q to Q
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Michael Fauscette [email protected] Twitter: @mfauscette Blog: www.mfauscette.com
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