emerging trends in the information technology job market

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Emerging Trends in the Information Technology Job Market: How Shouldthe Public and Private Sectors es!ond"

Testimony before the House #ommittee on Education and the $orkforce%Subcommittee on &versight and InvestigationsROBERTI. LERMANPublication Date:April 23, 1998

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T#"n y(, #"ir!"n 4(estr", Represent"ti5e Min, "nd (t#er !e!'ers (f t#e 6'*(!!ittee f(rin5itin) !e t( testify 'ef(re t#e *(!!ittee "s p"rt (f y(r A!eri*"n 7(rer "t " r(ssr("ds Pr(e*t"nd spe*ifi*"lly (n E!er)in) Trends in t#e 4i)# Te*# 7(rpl"*e. In t#is 'rief st"te!ent, I s#"ll de"l&it# t#ree !"in esti(ns$

1. 4(& d( trends in t#e (5er"ll :6 l"'(r !"ret rel"te t( t#e inf(r!"ti(n te*#n(l()y ;IT< l"'(r!"ret+

2. 7#"t "re t#e e!pl(y!ent "nd &")e trends "!(n) inf(r!"ti(n te*#n(l()y &(rers+ ( t#e"5"il"'le d"t" p(int t( " seri(s s#(rt")e (f inf(r!"ti(n te*#n(l()y &(rers+

3. 4(& s#(ld t#e pri5"te "nd p'li* se*t(rs resp(nd t( t#e ti)#t l"'(r !"ret f(r inf(r!"ti(nte*#n(l()y &(rers "nd (t#er #i)#ly tr"ined &(rers+

T#e ey p(ints (f t#e testi!(ny "re t#ese$

T#e ti)#t l"'(r !"ret f(r IT &(rers is (ne "spe*t (f t#e (5er"ll #i)# de!"nd f(r

silled &(rers in "ll indstries. T#e de!"nd f(r silled &(rers #"s 'een risin) f"stert#"n t#e spply, *"sin) "n in*re"sed &")e pre!i! f(r ed*"ted &(rers.:ne!pl(y!ent r"tes (f *(lle)e )r"d"tes "re n(& "t (r 'el(& 2=.

6till, t#e e5iden*e is f"r fr(! *(n*lsi5e t#"t IT (**p"ti(ns "re e>perien*in) " seri(s

s#(rt")e. Alt#()# e!pl(y!ent )r(&t# #"s 'een r"pid "!(n) *(!pter en)ineers,d"t" '"se "d!inistr"t(rs, "nd *(!pter spp(rt spe*i"lists, little (' )r(&t# #"s t"en

pl"*e (5er t#e l"st ei)#t ye"rs "!(n) *(!pter pr()r"!!ers. M(st i!p(rt"ntly, t#e

trends in re"l &")es (f *(!pter s*ientists "re n(t ne"rly "s r"pid "s (ne &(ld e>pe*tin " !"ret "tte!ptin) t( "dst t( " l"'(r s#(rt")e.

7(rers enter t#e IT field fr(! !"ny fields? (nly " !(dest s#"re (f IT &(rers reire

*(!pter s*ien*e de)rees? !(re(5er, " 5ery l"r)e s#"re (f t#(se &(rin) in IT fields!(5e t( (t#er fields freently? if t#e indstry !"n")ed t( pers"de " #i)# s#"re (fin*!'ent &(rers t( re!"in, t#ey &(ld f"*e " less diffi*lt t"s fillin) p(siti(ns.

T#e *rrent ti)#t l"'(r !"ret pr(5ides "n (pp(rtnity t( #elp "ll *iti@ens t( t"e

"d5"nt")e (f t#e risin) de!"nd f(r sills. T#e e>p"nsi(n (f (' (pp(rtnities in t#e IT
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field s#(ld sti!l"te en#"n*ed p'li*-pri5"te initi"ti5es t( "ttr"*t &(rers t( t#e fieldt#r()# e>p"nded tr"inin), t#e de5el(p!ent (f *le"r *"reer p"t#&"ys "nd sillst"nd"rds, "nd t#e e>p"nsi(n (f y(t# "pprenti*es#ips "nd *"reer "*"de!ies. In"dditi(n, t#e p'li* se*t(r s#(ld en*(r")e *(ll"'(r"ti(n 'et&een e!pl(yers (f IT&(rers "nd *(!!nity *(lle)es "nd (t#er p(st-se*(nd"ry institti(ns t( *re"te*rri*l! f(r se in !edi!-ter! "nd l(n)-ter! pr()r"!s t#"t is &ell-t"il(red f(r IT*"reers.

(5ern!ent p(li*y !"ers s#(ld 'e *"ti(s "'(t e>p"ndin) t#e spply (f IT

&(rers 'y in*re"sin) t#e n!'er (f s#(rt-ter! i!!i)r"nt 5is"s. T#e 41-B pr()r"!#"s seri(s str*tr"l fl"&s "nd t#ere is n( ('5i(s re"s(n t( )i5e spe*i"l preferen*e t((ne indstry. E>p"ndin) i!!i)r"ti(n (f #i)#ly silled &(rers !"y &ell 'e " )((d ide"independent (f t#e IT (' !"ret esti(n, 't t#e i!!i)r"nts s#(ld n(t *(nstitte "sep"r"te *l"ss (f &(rers &it# (pti(ns li!ited (nly t( sele*ted e!pl(yers.

The Overall Job Market Context

T#e s**ess (f t#e :6 e*(n(!y in )ener"tin) ('s "nd in red*in) ne!pl(y!ent r"tes&it#(t ind*in) infl"ti(n is n(& &ell n(&n. Bt &e s#(ld re!e!'er t#"t ntil re*ently, t#e*(nsenss "!(n) !"*r(e*(n(!ists "nd !(net"ry p(li*y e>perts &"s t#"t ne!pl(y!ent

r"tes 'el(& = &(ld set (ff #i)# "nd risin) r"tes (f infl"ti(n. 6( f"r, t#e spplies (f l"'(r!"teri"li@ed &it# little pressre (n nit l"'(r *(sts (r pri*es. Bet&een C"n"ry 199 "ndC"n"ry 1998, t#e n!'er (f ('s e>p"nded 'y (5er 0 !illi(n, "s (5er !illi(n pe(ple (inedt#e l"'(r f(r*e "nd (5er 1 !illi(n left t#e r"ns (f t#e ne!pl(yed. T#e "'ility t( fill t#ese ('s&it#(t sti!l"tin) infl"ti(n is espe*i"lly striin), )i5en t#e f"*t t#"t t#e e*(n(!y #"s 'een)ener"tin) !(stly #i)#-sill ('s. As #"rt 1s#(&s, nearly two out of three of the 17 millionfulltime !obs added since 1"## were in the professional, mana$erial, and technicaloccupations. In 1988, t#ese (**p"ti(ns "**(nted f(r (nly "'(t (n in f(r ('s. D:psillin)Dis t"in) pl"*e n(t (nly in t#e :6 't in (t#er OE *(ntries "nd it is n(t entirely " re*entp#en(!en(n. In 19, (nly (ne (f si> :6 &(rers &ere pr(fessi(n"ls, !"n")ers, (r te*#ni*"l&(rers? 'y 1990, t#e pr(p(rti(n #"d re"*#ed ne"rly (ne in t#ree. In "dditi(n, sillreire!ents #"5e 'een risin) f(r ('s in !iddle "nd l(&er le5el (**p"ti(ns.

M"ny (f t#e ne& ('s "re in fields in5(l5in) *re"ti5ity "nd *riti*"l t#inin). C('s f(r "*t(rs,

*(lle)e pr(fess(rs, s(*i"l s*ientists, rep(rters, "nd l"&yers #"5e !ped "t d('le "nd triplet#e r"te (f in*re"se (f n(npr(fessi(n"l ('s. (r e>"!ple, ('s "s *(lle)e pr(fess(rs r(se fr(!12, in 19 "'(t 8, in 199.

C('s in n(npr(fessi(n"l, n(n!"n")eri"l (**p"ti(ns "re reirin) in*re"sin) le5els (f sill "nd

tr"inin). One stdy (f 0, pr(d*ti(n &(rers f(nd si)nifi*"nt p)r"din) in t#e l"stde*"de. A Ne& F(r 6t"te stdy (f 1,G (' #(lders in 3 l"r)e "nd s!"ll 'sinesses l((ed"t t#e sills reired in *"reer p(siti(ns n(t reirin) " *(lle)e de)ree, s*# "s pr"*ti*"l nrse,"t( '(dy rep"ir, in5ent(ry *ler, "nd s"l"d *#ef. T#e ('s reired sills &ell 'ey(nd!ini!! *(!peten*y le5els, in*ldin) !"ny n(t e!p#"si@ed in s*#((ls, s*# "s #"5in)n(&led)e (f " syste! "nd its interrel"ted pr(*edres, re"*tin) *(nstr*ti5ely t( p(siti5e (rne)"ti5e *riti*is!, &(rin) &ell "s " te"! !e!'er, sin) inf(r!"ti(n syste!s, settin)pri(rities, "nd #"5in) )((d pers(n"l &(r #"'its. Reslts fr(! " re*ent sr5ey (f (5er 3,e!pl(yers in f(r :6 !etr(p(lit"n "re"s s#(&ed t#"t t#e 5"st !"(rity (f n(n-*(lle)e ('s#"d t"ss reirin) sills n(t p(ssessed 'y !"ny inner-*ity &(rers. T#e t"ss reired sills"nd e>perien*e in t#e rele5"nt (**p"ti(n "s &ell "s )ener"l sills, s*# "s &ritin) p"r")r"p#s"nd &(rin) &it# *(!pters.

7#ile t#e ed*"ti(n"l "tt"in!ent (f t#e &(r f(r*e #"s e>p"nded "l(n) &it# t#e risin) ('reire!ents, t#e )r(&t# in *(lle)e *(!pleti(n sl(&ed *(nsider"'ly (5er t#e l"st de*"de.T(d"y, t(( !"ny y(n) pe(ple still l"* t#e sills t( perf(r! &ell in t#e (' !"ret. Cst (5er(ne in t#ree y(n) pe(ple 'et&een t#e ")es (f 2 "nd 3G e"rned "ny de)ree 'ey(nd #i)#s*#((l. A'(t 2/= "*#ie5ed t#e BA de)rees ile "n(t#er 8= )"ined "n AA de)ree. A'(t
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(ne in fi5e y(n) pe(ple "ttended s(!e *(lle)e 't ne5er e"rned "ny de)ree. At t#e '(tt(!end, 12= &ere #i)# s*#((l dr(p(ts "nd "n(t#er 0= p"ssed t#e ener"l Ei5"len*y e)ree,'t did n(t e"rn " #i)# s*#((l dipl(!".

T#e e5iden*e (n test s*(res '"sed (n t#e N"ti(n"l Assess!ent (f Ed*"ti(n"l Pr()ress tells "

!i>ed st(ry "'(t 1/ ye"r-(lds. On t#e (ne #"nd, s*ien*e s*(res f(r 1/ ye"r-(lds (n t#eN"ti(n"l Assess!ent (f Ed*"ti(n"l Pr()ress in*re"sed "nd !"t# s*(res r(se sli)#tly,espe*i"lly sin*e t#e e"rly 198s. 4(&e5er, &e #"5e &itnessed essenti"lly n( )"ins in t#ere"din) "nd &ritin) s*(res (f 1/ ye"r-(lds (r 11t# )r"ders.

Per#"ps f(r t#ese re"s(ns, e5en &it# in*re"ses in ye"rs (f s*#((lin), t#e *(ntry still f"*es "ne>tre!ely ti)#t (' !"ret f(r t#e !(st ed*"ted. T#e ne!pl(y!ent r"te (f "ll *(lle)e

)r"d"tes #"s dr(pped 'el(& 2=, ile t#e r"te f(r #i)# s*#((l )r"d"tes &it# n( *(lle)e &"sstill ne"rly =. T#e "5er")e e"rnin)s )"p 'et&een y(n) *(lle)e "nd #i)# s*#((l )r"d"tes!ped fr(! "'(t " 2= t( " = differenti"l. A!(n) &(rers "t "ll ")es (5er 18, t#e*(lle)e &")e pre!i! r(se fr(! G1= in 19/9 "nd 0= in 199.

Alt#()# t#e &idenin) p"y differenti"ls represent "n n&el*(!e rise in ine"lity, " !"ret ini*# e!pl(yers &illin)ly "'s(r' silled &(rers e5en "t #i)#er &")e pre!i!s is f"r !(re

#(pefl t#"n t#e "ltern"ti5e. 7ere e!pl(yers p"yin) less f(r sill "nd #"5in) little se f(re>tr" sills, t#en ed*"ted &(rers *(ld e"sily f"*e "*"de!i* ne!pl(y!ent (r frstr"ti(nsen t#eir ('s reire little (f t#e *"p"'ilities t#ey &(red s( #"rd t( "*#ie5e. In t#is sense,&e "re f(rtn"te t#"t t#e ne& te*#n(l()ies "re de!"ndin) !(re &(rers &it# n(&led)e "ndt#e "'ility t( ndert"e lifel(n) le"rnin). Bt n(& is " )((d ti!e t( t"e "d5"nt")e (f t(d"yHs(pp(rtnities s( t#"t " 'r("d se)!ent (f t#e &(r f(r*e 'enefit fr(! t#e e*(n(!y.

Trends in the Information Technology Labor Market

7#"t d(es t#is )ener"l pi*tre (f risin) de!"nds f(r sill "nd ti)#t (' !"rets f(r t#e !(sted*"ted !e"n f(r t#e inf(r!"ti(n te*#n(l()y l"'(r !"ret+ Are t#e e!pl(yers f"*in) seri(ss#(rt")es f(r &(rers in t#e IT (**p"ti(ns+

Bef(re &e l(( spe*ifi*"lly "t t#e IT field, it is i!p(rt"nt t( est"'lis# "t is !e"nt 'y "s#(rt")e. A s#(rt")e *"n 'e s"id t( e>ist en t#e n!'er (f ('s reirin) " p"rti*l"r type(f &(rer e>*eeds t#e "ntity (f s*# &(rers "5"il"'le "t t#e )(in) &")e? "nd en t#e!"ret is n(t "dstin) r"pidly t( t#is i!'"l"n*e. T#is se*(nd p"rt is *riti*"l. ener"lly, free!"rets "lle5i"te s#(rt")es t#r()# t#e pri*e !e*#"nis!. 7#en &(rers "re s*"r*e "t *rrents"l"ries, &e e>pe*t e!pl(yers t( 'id p &")es, i*# '(t# "ttr"*ts &(rers int( t#e field "nddeters t#e se (f t#ese !(re #i)#ly p"id &(rers. T#s, in " s#(rt")e sit"ti(n, &e s#(ld('ser5e risin) e!pl(y!ent "nd risin) &")es (r s(!e *(!'in"ti(n (f t#e t&(. If t#e initi"ls#(rt")e is &idespre"d "nd if "dditi(n"l spplies (f "lified &(rers d( n(t !"teri"li@e, t#eeff(rt t( fill t#e (' 5"*"n*ies *"n sti!l"te infl"ti(n.

4(& d( &e n(& en t#e !"ret is n(t "dstin)+ T#e "ns&er is *(!pli*"ted. 7#en t#ere"re !"ny e!pl(yers, l"'(r !"ret f(r*es &ill )ener"lly r"ise rel"ti5e &")es en()# t( "ttr"*t&(rers fr(! (t#er fields. In fields in5(l5in) l(n) l")s 'et&een t#e (nset (f 5"*"n*ies "nd t#eti!e it t"es t( tr"in "dditi(n"l &(rers, risin) de!"nd f(r &(rers !"y initi"lly r"ise &")es&it#(t 'rin)in) "dditi(n"l spplies (f &(rers. 4(&e5er, &it#in " fe& ye"rs, t#e in*re"sed&")es dr"& !(re &(rers int( t#e field. A )((d e>"!ple is t#e s*ientifi* "nd en)ineerin)(**p"ti(ns. T#e (' !"ret f(r n"tr"l s*ientists "nd en)ineers #"s fl*t"ted 'et&een l"r)ered*ti(ns in de!"nd in t#e !id-19/s t( l"r)e in*re"ses 'y t#e !id-198s t( !(der"tin)p"tterns in t#e e"rly "nd !id-199s. 7#en de!"nd fell, s( did rel"ti5e &")es, "nd lti!"telyt#e n!'er (f stdents *#((sin) t( )r"d"te &it# "n en)ineerin) (r s*ien*e de)ree. 7#ens"l"ry pre!i!s in*re"sed, "s in t#e !id-198s, t#e pr(p(rti(n (f stdents enterin) t#e fieldin*re"sed. T#s, !"ret f(r*es )ener"lly resp(nd t( in*re"ses in de!"nd, e5en in pr(fessi(ns


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reirin) len)t#y tr"inin) peri(ds.

N(&, let s trn t( t#e IT field. T#e t#ree pri!"ry *enss (**p"ti(n"l *l"ssifi*"ti(ns f(r IT&(rers "re$ *(!pter syste!s "n"lysts "nd s*ientists, *(!pter pr()r"!!ers, "nd(per"ti(ns "nd syste!s rese"r*#ers. (!pter en)ineers &(r &it# t#e #"rd&"re "nd

s(ft&"re "spe*ts (f syste!s desi)n "nd de5el(p!ent "nd (ften &(r in te"!s t#"t desi)n ne&*(!ptin) de5i*es (r *(!pter-rel"ted eip!ent. 6(ft&"re en)ineers desi)n "nd de5el(p'(t# p"*")ed "nd syste!s s(ft&"re. "t"'"se "d!inistr"t(rs &(r &it# d"t"'"se!"n")e!ent syste!s s(ft&"re, re(r)"ni@e "nd restr*tre d"t" "nd "re resp(nsi'le f(r!"int"inin) t#e effi*ien*y (f d"t"'"ses "nd syste! se*rity. (!pter spp(rt "n"lystspr(5ide "ssist"n*e "nd "d5i*e t( sers, interpret pr('le!s "nd pr(5ide te*#ni*"l spp(rt f(r#"rd&"re, s(ft&"re, "nd syste!s. 6yste!s "n"lysts i!ple!ent *(!pter te*#n(l()y t( !eett#e indi5id"l needs (f "n (r)"ni@"ti(n. (!pter pr()r"!!ers &rite "nd !"int"in t#edet"iled instr*ti(ns t#"t list in " l()i*"l (rder t#e steps t#"t *(!pters !st e>e*te t(perf(r! t#eir fn*ti(ns.

espite t#e e>tr"5")"nt *l"i!s (f " s#(rt")e (f IT &(rers, t#e indi*"t(rs "re !i>ed. T#ee!pl(y!ent trends s#(&n in #"rt 2re5e"l r"pid )r(&t# in t#e *(!pter syste!s "n"lysts"nd s*ientists, 't n( )r(&t# in t#e (t#er pr(fessi(ns ntil l"st ye"r. E!pl(y!ent in (per"ti(ns

rese"r*# #"s "*t"lly de*lined sin*e 1988 "nd t#e t(t"l n!'er (f *(!pter pr()r"!!ersre!"ined "t "'(t 0, &(rers 'et&een 1988 "nd 1990, " ti!e in i*# e!pl(y!ent (f"ll pr(fessi(n"ls e>p"nded 'y ne"rly 3 per*ent. Only in 199/ d( &e ('ser5e s'st"nti"l)r(&t# in t#e e!pl(y!ent (f *(!pter pr()r"!!ers, "s ('s in*re"sed 'y 11.0=. One !"yspe*l"te t#"t t#e s(r*e (f t#e re*ent sdden !p in pr()r"!!er p(siti(ns is t#e de!"nd'y *(!p"nies, )(5ern!ents, "nd (t#er (r)"ni@"ti(ns t( s(l5e t#e pr('le!s lined t( t#e ye"r2, '). If s(, &e *"n e>pe*t "dditi(n"l s#(rt-ter! pressres (n t#e (' !"ret f(rpr()r"!!ers t#is ye"r "nd per#"ps ne>t ye"r, 't per#"ps e5en red*ti(ns in de!"nd inftre ye"rs. "t" fr(! (**p"ti(n"l e!pl(y!ent sr5eys ;OE6< t"en "!(n) e!pl(yers*(nfir! t#ese trends. E!pl(y!ent (f *(!pter pr()r"!!ers '"rely in*re"sed "t "ll, ile('s in t#e #i)#er le5el fields r(se r"pidly.

In spite (f &e" e!pl(y!ent )r(&t# in t&( (f t#e t#ree IT (**p"ti(ns, (ne !i)#t still "r)et#"t " s#(rt")e (f &(rers pre5ented e!pl(yers fr(! #irin) in t#ese fields. In "dditi(n,s#(rt")es !i)#t #"5e li!ited t#e e>p"nsi(n (f ('s in t#e r"pidly )r(&in) (**p"ti(n (f*(!pter syste!s "n"lysts "nd s*ientists. Bt, if seri(s s#(rt")es &ere t"in) pl"*e in "ny (ft#ese fields, &e &(ld e>pe*t !"ret pressres t( r"ise s"l"ries f(r IT &(rers !(re r"pidlyt#"n f(r (t#er pr(fessi(n"l &(rers. In f"*t, t#e &eely &")e p"tterns displ"yed in #"rt 3s#(& n( e5iden*e (f " !"ret e>perien*in) " s#(rt")e. E>*ept f(r t#e 1990-9/ peri(d, re"l&")es #"5e 'een essenti"lly fl"t sin*e 1988, risin) sli)#tly "'(5e t#e sl(& )r(&t# in !edi"n&")es e>perien*ed 'y pr(fessi(n"ls "s " (le.

"t" fr(! s(!e pri5"te sr5eys indi*"te #i)#er s"l"ry le5els "nd #i)#er r"tes (f )r(&t# f(r IT&(rers, 't p'li* sr5eys s#(& (nly !(dest )r(&t#. A sr5ey *(nd*ted f(r t#e Inf(r!"ti(nTe*#n(l()y Ass(*i"ti(n (f A!eri*"n ;ITAA< 'y 7illi"! Mer*er indi*"ted s"l"ry in*re"se (fne"rly 2= "nd s"l"ry le5els (f &ell (5er per #(r ;ei5"lent t( "'(t 2, per &ee


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rep(rted 'y Mer*er f(r !iddle t( #i)# le5el IT (**p"ti(ns.

Re*ent e!pl(yer-'"sed d"t" *(lle*ted 'y t#e Bre" (f L"'(r 6t"tisti*s indi*"tes &")e r"tes*l(se t( t#e 2-3 fi)re. "t" (n t#e &")es p"id t( *(!pter s*ientists "re "5"il"'le f(rspe*ifi* !etr(p(lit"n "re"s fr(! t#e N"ti(n"l (!pens"ti(n 6r5ey ;N6tent t( i*# t#e

*(!p"ny is )r(&in). E5en "!(n) e!pl(yers n(t e>p"ndin) "t "ll "nd in !"rets ere t#ere"re n( s#(rt")es, 5"*"n*ies *"n e"sily re"*# t#e r"tes rep(rted. (r e>"!ple, " *(!p"nye>pe*tin) trn(5er (f 3= per ye"r "nd e>pe*tin) t( t"e f(r !(nt#s t( fill " 5"*"n*y &ill#"5e 5"*"n*ies e"l t( 1= (f e!pl(y!ent. If t#e e!pl(yer is e>p"ndin), 5"*"n*ies &(ldrn "t "n e5en #i)#er r"te t#"n t#e 1= fi)re *ited in t#e Kir)ini" Te*# stdy. (r t#esere"s(ns, t#e Kir)ini" Te*# fi)re tells s n(t#in) "'(t t#e presen*e (f " s#(rt")e (f IT&(rers, t#e dr"ti(n (f "ny s#(rt")e, (r t#e re"s(ns f(r t#e s#(rt")e.

Meeting Potential Future hortages

E5en if (ne *(ld 'e "ssred t#"t t#ere is n( i!!edi"te s#(rt")e (f IT &(rers, is t#erere"s(n t( 'e *(n*erned "'(t ftre s#(rt")es, t#"t ftre de!"nds &ill (tstrip ftrespplies.+

Indications of %ro!ected &ob 'rowth. T#e Bre" (f L"'(r 6t"tisti*s pr(e*ts r"pid r"tes (fe!pl(y!ent )r(&t# 'et&een 1990 "nd 20 in IT (**p"ti(n "s f(ll(&s$ *(!pter en)ineers,23,? d"t" '"se "d!inistr"t(rs "nd *(!pter spp(rt spe*i"lists, 2G,? syste!s
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"n"lysts, 2,? "nd *(!pter pr()r"!!ers, 129,. In t#e fields (t#er t#"n *(!pterpr()r"!!in), t#e )r(&t# is esti!"ted "t "'(t 1,, ne& &(rers (5er ten ye"rs, (r"'(t 1, per ye"r. Alt#()# t#e n!'ers *(nstitte 5ery #i)# per*ent")e )r(&t#, t#e"'s(lte n!'er (f (penin)s in t#ese fields is "ppr(>i!"tely t#e s"!e "s pr(e*ted *(!'ined(penin)s "!(n) re)istered nrses "nd t#er"pists. T#e "dditi(n"l 1 !illi(n (' (penin)s in t#eIT fields (t#er t#"n *(!pter pr()r"!!in) represents "'(t 12= (f t#e 8.3 !illi(n (penin)spr(e*ted f(r pr(fessi(n"ls "nd "'(t 8= (f 13. !illi(n (penin)s "!(n) pr(fessi(n"ls "nd!"n")ers.

%ool of %otential Applicants. 7#et#er t#e r('st de!"nd f(r *(!pter spe*i"lists &ill (tstripspply depends p"rtly (n t#e "'ility (f t#e indstries e!pl(yin) IT &(rers t( "ttr"*t ne&entr"nts "nd t( ret"in e>istin) &(rers. In e>"!inin) t#is esti(n, &e s#(ld re*()ni@e t#"tt#e p((l (f p(tenti"l "ppli*"nts e>tends &ell 'ey(nd indi5id"ls &it# de)rees in *(!pters*ien*e. N(te in #"rt t#"t "!(n) t#e 1992-93 *(#(rt (f *(lle)e )r"d"tes, (nly (ne-t#ird&it# ('s in *(!pter s*ien*e (r pr()r"!!in) ('s #"d de)rees in *(!pter s*ien*e (rinf(r!"ti(n s*ien*e. Ne"rly "s l"r)e " s#"re *"!e fr(! !"(rs in 'siness !"n")e!ent ;28per*entistin) st(* (f IT &(rers "nd *(ntine t(dr"& (n BA "nd AA )r"d"tes &it# de)rees in fields (t#er t#"n *(!pter s*ien*e. My

pr(e*ti(ns, n(ted in #"rt 0, indi*"te t#"t t#e e>pe*ted fl(&s fr(! *(lle)es "nd ni5ersitiess#(ld *(!e *l(se t( !eetin) t#e e>pe*ted de!"nd.

(ewly )mer$in$ Trainin$ *pportunities. Pr(priet"ry s*#((ls "s &ell "s *(lle)es "nd ni5ersities(ffer tr"inin) f(r IT &(rers in !(der"te sill p(siti(ns. Inter5ie&s &it# (ffi*i"ls "t t#reepr(priet"ry s*#((ls in t#e 7"s#in)t(n, "re" rep(rt #i)# )r(&t# in enr(ll!ents "nd 5ery#i)# pl"*e!ent r"tes "!(n) t#(se ( *(!plete t#e pr()r"!. M"ny (f t#e *(rses l"st "'(tG- !(nt#s "nd eip &(rers t( t"e ('s in *(!pter pr()r"!!in) in s*# l"n)")es "s "nd CAKA, "s *(!pter te*#ni*i"ns, "nd net&(r "d!inistr"t(rs. T#e titi(n typi*"llyr"n)es fr(! 1, t( ,. T#e s*#((ls "re (pen t( stdents (f "ny '"*)r(nd. N( pri(r

pr()r"!!in) (r net&(r e>perien*e is ne*ess"ry. Alt#()# t#e "lity (f t#e )r"d"tes fr(!t#ese pr()r"!s is n*ert"in, t#ere "re *ertifi*"ti(n e>"!s in s(!e (f t#e rele5"nt fields. Are*ent 7"s#in)t(n P(st st(ry des*ri'ed pr(p(sed le)isl"ti(n )(in) t#r()# t#e Kir)ini" 4(set#"t &(ld pr(5ide *(!!nity *(lle)es &it# fndin) t( t"il(r *(rses t( spe*ifi* indstries int#e inf(r!"ti(n te*#n(l()y field. ((per"tin) *(!p"nies "pp"rently 'elie5e t#"t t#ey *"n fill!"ny (f t#eir p(siti(ns &it# pe(ple tr"ined in t#e *(!!nity *(lle)e syste!. T#e st(ry p(ints(t #(& f(r ye"r ni5ersities "re "ls( )e"rin) p t( !eet t#e de!"nd f(r IT &(rers.

7#ile set*#y, t#e e5iden*e fr(! tr"inin) pr()r"!s "nd e!er)in) p(st-se*(nd"ry pr()r"!ss))ests t#"t &(rers &it# re"s(n"'ly )((d "*"de!i* sills *"n )"in "**ess t( IT pr(fessi(nsin " rel"ti5ely s#(rt peri(d (f ti!e. On t#e (t#er #"nd, t#ese pr()r"!s "re nliely t( ser5e "st#e s(r*e (f &(rers in t#e !(st "d5"n*ed IT pr(fessi(ns.
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Public and Private !es"onses to Tight Labor Markets for killed #orkers

Bef(re *#((sin) " resp(nse, &e !st &isely *(nsider "t &e &"nt t( "**(!plis#. T#(se"d5(*"tin) " p(li*y (f e>p"ndin) te!p(r"ry 5is"s d( s( "s " !e"ns (f "ddressin) " seri(sl"'(r s#(rt")e. :nf(rtn"tely, t#e d"t" d( n(t s))est t#e l"'(r !"ret is s'st"nti"lly ti)#ter

in t#e IT fields t#"n f(r (t#er silled (**p"ti(ns. 6e*(nd, p"st e>perien*e s))ests t#"t"*ti(ns t( red*e " s#(rt")e (ften end p pr(d*in) " srpls in t#e ftre. 6(!e pr(fessi(ns,in*ldin) en)ineers, #"5e 'een s'e*t t( '((! "nd 'st *y*les. 7#en de!"nd #"s 'eenr('st, s"l"ries #"5e in*re"sed "nd )(5ern!ent s'sidies #"5e e>p"nded, t#ere'y sti!l"tin)" l"r)e in*re"se in t#e spply (f en)ineers. :nf(rtn"tely, (ften st "s ne& entr"nts #"5e(ined t#e en)ineerin) &(r f(r*e, de!"nd f(r en)ineers de*lined. T#e *(!'ined i!p"*t (f t#ee>p"nsi(n in spply "nd t#e red*ti(n in de!"nd #"s s(!eti!es led t( "n en(r!(s )lt (fen)ineers. Ir(ni*"lly, " p(li*y (f e>p"ndin) i!!i)r"nt 5is"s f(r IT p(siti(ns is p(tenti"lly*(nter-pr(d*ti5e 'e*"se it *"n in*re"se n*ert"inty "nd red*e t#e in*enti5e t( enter t#efield. Pr(spe*ti5e :6 stdents !"y *#((se n(t t( prep"re f(r t#e IT field if t#ey see t#"tf(rei)ners &ill )"in e"sy "**ess t( 5is"s si!ply 'y enterin) "n IT (**p"ti(n.

( &e t#en d( n(t#in) "nd le"5e it t( t#e !"rets t( "dst+ In !y 5ie&, t#e "ns&er is n(.T#e ey isse is #(& !(re (f (r *iti@ens *"n t"e "d5"nt")e (f t#e &el*(!e de!"nd f(r

silled &(rers "nd ('t"in )((d ('s. In t#is *(nte>t, (ne 'enefit (f t(d"yHs ti)#t l"'(r !"retf(r "ll &(rers "nd f(r IT &(rers is t#e i!pets t( pri5"te-p'li* eff(rts t( e>p"nd "ndi!pr(5e tr"inin), t( "ttr"*t ne& &(rers t( fields reirin) si)nifi*"nt sills, "nd t( ret"ine>istin) &(rers. A )((d e>"!ple (f " *(ll"'(r"ti5e pri5"te-p'li* initi"ti5e is t#e AppliedInf(r!"ti(n M"n")e!ent ;AIM< Institte in O!"#", Ne'r"s". AIM #"s 'r()#t indstry "nd#i)#er ed*"ti(n t()et#er in &"ys t#"t e>p"nd t#e s(r*es (f l"'(r. In "dditi(n t( pr(!(tin)*(ntinin) ed*"ti(n, AIM #"s de5el(ped interns#ips "nd *rri*l! "nd #"s &(red t( "ttr"*t#i)# s*#((l stdents t( IT *"reers. (r se5er"l IT (**p"ti(ns, tr"inin) is re"dily "5"il"'le f(rt#(se ( &is# t( enter t#e field "nd t#e *(rses *"n 'e *(!pleted in &ell nder (ne ye"r.7#ile n( d('t !"ret i!perfe*ti(ns e>ist, t#e *"p"*ity t( tr"in !id-le5el IT &(rers ise>p"ndin) r"pidly. It is i!p(rt"nt t#"t &e pr(!(te t#(se eff(rts "nd "5(id p(li*ies t#"t red*et#e in*enti5es (f e!pl(yers t( ndert"e sensi'le l(n)-ter! str"te)ies t#"t *"n &iden "**ess(f A!eri*"n &(rers t( )((d ('s.

Usin$ +choolareer Initiatives )ffectively. P'li* "nd pri5"te pr()r"!s *(ld "ttr"*t s(!epr(spe*ti5e entr"nts int( t#e field en t#ey "re y(n) en()# t( !"e "de"te prep"r"ti(nin s*#((ls "nd (n t#e (' f(r "d5"n*ed &(r in *(!pter s*ien*e. rrently, fe& stdents in#i)# s*#((l "re "&"re (f "t it is t#"t *(!pter s*ientists d(, "t "*"de!i* sills "rereired, t#e *#"llen)es "nd "*ti5ities (n t#e (', "nd "t t#e e*(n(!i* re&"rds "re.(!p"nies "nd e5en )(5ern!ents "s e!pl(yers *(ld pr(!(te interns#ips "nd"pprenti*es#ips f(r #i)# s*#((l "nd *(lle)e stdents t( )i5e t#e! " t"ste f(r t#e sills reired"nd t#e *(ntent (f t#e ('s in IT *"reers "s &ell "s "ll(&in) stdents t( le"rn et#er t#eylie (r dislie t#e field. 6i!ply !"in) t#e *"reer l"dders tr"nsp"rent "nd )i5in) stdents "*#"n*e t( &(r "nd le"rn "t t#e s"!e ti!e *"n 'e 5ery effe*ti5e. T#e At(des (nd"ti(n is

spe"r#e"din) "n eff(rt t#"t in*ldes *((rdin"tin) interns#ips "*r(ss t#e entire 6"n r"n*is*(B"y "re" n(t (nly in t#e IT field 't in (t#ers "s &ell. Interns#ips pr(5ided 'y t#e At(des(rp(r"ti(n itself "*#ie5ed 'enefits t#"t "pp"rently (t&ei)#ed t#e *(sts drin) t#e interns#ipperi(d. T#ese interns#ip e>perien*es "re liely t( spr !"ny y(n) pe(ple t( ('t"in t#ene*ess"ry tr"inin) t( enter #i)# le5el IT p(siti(ns.

T#e )(5ern!ent *(ld en*(r")e pri5"te fir!s, t#e s*#((l syste!s, "nd f(nd"ti(n (ffi*i"ls t(&(r t()et#er t( e>p"nd t#ese (pp(rtnities. 6(!e (f t#ese eff(rts #"5e 'een pr(!(ted "ndfnded in p"rt t#r()# t#e 6*#((l-t(-7(r Opp(rtnities A*t ;6T7OA< (f 199G. Alt#()# t#e199G 6*#((l-t(-7(r Opp(rtnities A*t ;6T7OA< en*(r")es ne& *(!'in"ti(ns (f &(r-'"sed"nd s*#((l-'"sed le"rnin) t(&"rd t#e "*#ie5e!ent (f (**p"ti(n"l *ertifi*"ti(ns. it #"s 'een"l!(st entirely " de*entr"li@ed eff(rt, &it# t(( !ini!"l " r(le f(r t#e n"ti(n"l )(5ern!ent (r(t#er n"ti(n"l institti(ns. 7e #"5e little in t#e &"y (f n"ti(n"l (r e5en re)i(n"l st"nd"rds. 7e


8/13

#"5e set n( n"ti(n"l t"r)ets, *ert"inly n(ne t#"t *"rry *(nseen*es. T#e reslts "re s( f"rne5en.

-evelopin$ areer %athways. In t#e IT field "nd in (t#ers "s &ell, it is i!p(rt"nt t( de5el(p*le"r *"reer p"t#&"ys f(r y(n) pe(ple t( see "nd feel. E>p"ndin) t#e s*#((l-t(-&(r

"ppr("*# &(ld in5(l5e *re"tin) !(re "reer A*"de!ies "nd y(t# "pprenti*es#ips in se5er"lfields, in*ldin) t#e *(!pter field. "reer A*"de!ies "re s"lly s*#((ls &it#in s*#((ls(riented "r(nd " *"reer t#e!e. As stdents !(5e t#r()# t#eir l"st 2-3 ye"rs (f #i)# s*#((l,t#ey st"y &it# t#eir (&n te"*#er, t"e e>tr" *(rses in t#e t#e!e field, le"rn dire*tly fr(!indstry st"ff, "nd )( (n interns#ips. 6tdents in s*#((ls t#"t f(*s (n "n (**p"ti(n"l "re"(ften d( 'etter t#"n (t#er stdents "nd *ert"inly #"5e #i)#er s"tisf"*ti(n &it# s*#((l "nd&(r "nd sti!l"te stdents t( le"rn !(re "'(t t#e indstry "nd its reire!ents. Often,s*# "reer A*"de!ies #"5e *l(se lins &it# indstry. 6tdents &(ld #e"r indstry le"dersp(intin) (t t#e s#(rt")e "re"s "nd t#e re&"rdin) *"reers in t#e IT field. One e>"!ple is t#e(!pter A*"de!y &it#in O"l"nd Te*# 4i)# 6*#((l. 6tdents &it#in t#e s*#((l n(t (nlyle"rn "'(t *(!pter #"rd&"re "nd s(ft&"re 't t#ey )"in 5"l"'le &(r e>perien*e. As5(lnteers &(rin) &it# d(n"ted eip!ent, t#ey "re "'le t( e"rn t#eir (&n *(!pters "s &ell

"s pr(d*e en()# *(!pters t( se in *l"ssr((!s in t#eir (&n s*#((l "s &ell "s t#r()#(tt#e O"l"nd s*#((l distri*t. It &(ld )re"tly en#"n*e n(t (nly t#e le"rnin) 'y stdents 't

"ls( t#eir sense (f "**(!plis#!ent if t#is "ppr("*# &ere repli*"ted in #i)# s*#((ls "ll (5er t#e*(ntry.

Inte$rate ork and +chool/ased 0earnin$. E"lly if n(t !(re *riti*"l "re eff(rts t( inte)r"te&(r-'"sed "nd s*#((l-'"sed le"rnin). A fe& st"tes, n(t"'ly Mi*#i)"n, M"ine, "nd 7is*(nsin,se t#e y(t# "pprenti*es#ip "ppr("*#, i*# "s in t#e er!"n d"l syste!, #"s stdents"nd e!pl(yers ")ree t( " pr()r"! (f s*#((l-'"sed "nd &(r-'"sed le"rnin) t( "*#ie5e " &ell-desi)ned "nd 'r("d (**p"ti(n"l *ertifi*"ti(n. T#is "ppr("*# !(ti5"tes stdents n(t (nly &it#str(n) in*enti5es t( le"rn f(r ftre ('s 't "ls( f(r "t t#ey pr(d*e t(d"y in " &(r*(nte>t. F(n) pe(ple &"nt t( 'e "'le t( de!(nstr"te t#ey *"n "**(!plis# s(!et#in) t#"t#"s 5"le. 7(rpl"*es "re 'etter "'le t( pr(5ide t#ese e>perien*es t#"n s*#((ls. In "dditi(n,y(t# "pprenti*es#ip d(es !(re t( *(nne*t y(n) pe(ple &it# n"tr"l "dlt !ent(rs, t( lessent#e *#"n*e (f " !is!"t*# 'et&een tr"inin) "nd *"reer p(siti(ns, "nd t( in*re"se t#e lieli#((dt#"t stdents &ill le"rn *rrent pr"*ti*e r"t#er t#"n (ld "ppr("*#es. ertifi*"ti(n *"n red*e

t#e n*ert"inty *(n*ernin) t#e sills " &(rer ('t"ins "nd t#s in*re"ses t#e p(rt"'ility "ndt#e !"ret 5"le (f t#e tr"inin). A n"tr"l !ent(rin) pr(*ess (ften "rises "t t#e &(rpl"*e in"pprenti*es#ip sit"ti(ns. T#is type (f !ent(rin) *"n te"*# y(n) pe(ple t#e 5"le (fle"rnin), t#e inf(r!"l sills reired in t#e field, "nd t#e !"trity needed f(r " )((d life.

)ncoura$e /usiness'overnment %artnerships. A fe& st"te )(5ern!ents #"5e &(red &it#e!pl(yer )r(ps t( define *ertifi*"ti(ns, *rri*l", "nd testin). T#e l"r)est eff(rt in t#e y(t#"pprenti*es#ip field is t"in) pl"*e in 7is*(nsin, ere 10-2 (**p"ti(n"l st"nd"rds #"5e'een de5el(ped in *(ll"'(r"ti(n 'et&een t#e st"te )(5ern!ent, *(!!nity *(lle)es, "nd"ss(*i"ti(ns (f e!pl(yers. Alre"dy, t#e st"te #"s (5er 1,2 "pprenti*es in fields s*# "s

fin"n*i"l ser5i*es, #e"lt# ser5i*es, printin), "t( te*#n(l()y, "nd 'i(te*#n(l()y. Initi"l resltsfr(! 7is*(nsinHs y(t# "pprenti*es#ips, "s in printin), de!(nstr"te #i)# le5els (f s**ess.:nf(rtn"tely, y(t# "pprenti*es#ip #"s de5el(ped sl(&ly in !(st "re"s. T#e 5irt"l"'"nd(n!ent (f " n"ti(n"l r(le #"s &e"ened t#e "'ility t( de5el(p n"ti(n"l (r re)i(n"l(**p"ti(n"l st"nd"rds.

P'li*-pri5"te p"rtners#ips *(ld disse!in"te inf(r!"ti(n t( e!pl(yers (n t#e 'enefits (ftr"inin) "nd (f spplyin) stdent interns#ips (r "pprenti*es#ips. M"ny sill *ertifi*"ti(ns"lre"dy e>ist, 't t#ey "re (ften n"rr(& "nd !i)#t &ell ind*e &(rers n(t #"5e t#e fle>i'ilityt( "d"pt t( ftre trends. M(derni@in) "nd *((rdin"tin) t#e *rrent *ertifi*"ti(n syste! &(ld#elp &(rers nderst"nd "t #e (r s#e needs t( le"rn *(ntri'te t( enter t#e field "nd &(ld#elp fir!s re*()ni@e t#e *"p"'ilities (f t#(se "*#ie5in) " *ertifi*"ti(n.


9/13

)ncoura$e )mployer+ponsored Trainin$. An(t#er "ppr("*# is t( sti!l"te "dditi(n"l*(!p"ny-sp(ns(red tr"inin). T#ere is e5iden*e t#"t *(!p"ny spendin) (n tr"inin) is )(in) p.4(&e5er, (ne deterrent t( "dditi(n"l spendin) is t#e le)iti!"te fe"r t#"t spendin) !(ney (n)ener"l tr"inin) f(r " &(rer t(d"y !i)#t yield little 'enefit if t#e &(rer le"5es t#e (' !"ret(r !(5es t( " *(!petit(r. One &"y t( red*e t#e n*ert"inty *(!p"nies f"*e "'(t t#eir"'ility (f *(!p"nies t( re*(p tr"inin) *(sts &(ld 'e t( #"5e &(rers si)n " pled)e t( p"y'"* t#e fir! f(r tr"inin) e>penses in t#e e5ent t#e &(rer !(5es t( "n(t#er fir!. Bef(rei!ple!entin) " p(li*y (n t#is s'e*t, it is i!p(rt"nt t( deter!ine y s*# "ppr("*#es "ren(t sed e>tensi5ely t(d"y. 7#"t "re t#e '"rriers t#"t *rrently f"*e fir!s "tte!ptin) t(i!ple!ent s*# "n "ppr("*#+ Is it t#e p(tenti"l diffi*lty *(lle*tin) fr(! !(5ers+ If s(,per#"ps " t#ird p"rty *(ld "ssist fir!s "nd &(rers in f(r!l"tin) "nd fin"li@in) s*#")ree!ents.

Improve Academic Achievement in the 12 'rades. (r t#e s*#((l-t(-*"reer initi"ti5es t(s**eed, &e !st i!pr(5e "*"de!i* "*#ie5e!ent (f stdents in t#e -1 )r"des. Onei!p(rt"nt dire*ti(n f(r ref(r! is t#e est"'lis#!ent (f *le"r st"nd"rds, e>"!ples (f "t is!e"nt 'y !eetin) t#e st"nd"rds, "nd !et#(ds (f "ssessin) *(!peten*ies t#"t d( n(t lend

t#e!sel5es t( te"*#in) t( " test. A pr(!isin) eff(rt in t#is dire*ti(n, fin"n*ed in p"rt &it#eder"l )r"nts fr(! t#e N"ti(n"l 6*ien*e (nd"ti(n, is t#e Ne& 6t"nd"rds Pr(e*t de5el(ped

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Looking to the Future

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Tables% #harts ' (ra!hs


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emerging trends in the information technology job market

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