emerging trends in the global pharma market
TRANSCRIPT
Pharma Trends … 1
Emerging Trends in the World Pharmaceutical Industry
Amit Rangnekar
PhD Programme-2004
Narsee Monjee Institute of Management Studies (NMIMS)
Pharma Trends … 2
Executive Summary
As the young age faster and the old stay younger, the women’s health segment emerges stronger. These key
segments are driving the demand for lifestyle and lifecycle drugs. Dwindling growth rates, reduced margins and
drug safety concerns are fuelling a raging debate in the pharma world over the effectiveness and productivity of
exorbitant R&D spend.
Patent management remains a key area to protect the near total sales erosion of blockbuster drugs post expiry.
Mounting litigation costs are not deterring companies from developing countries to vie for a share of the lucrative
world pharma market through generics and contract manufacturing.
Amid this backdrop, India prepares for the shake out of the Post-2005 patent regime. Can India shed its copycat
image and leverage its adroit intellectual capital and famed reverse engineering skills to finally emerge as a
major global hub in R&D, formulations, bulk actives and intermediates.
Pharma Trends … 3
Key certainties and their impact
Market Shifts
The frenetic pace of life, stressful and sedentary lifestyles coupled with junk food and irregular eating
habits are triggering worldwide demand for a variety of chronic (long term) therapies like Central
Nervous System (CNS), Cardiovascular and Diabetes drugs. Sales of hypertension, cholesterol,
depression, anxiety, diabetes, obesity and sexual dysfunction drugs are booming.
Worldwide, chronic therapies like
Cardiovascular, CNS, Diabetes & Nutritional
drugs contribute to more than 65% of the market. In India, acute (short term) therapies like pain,
infections, cough, cold & fever drugs contribute to 73% of the market while chronic therapies contribute
only 27%. Anti-Infectives account for 27% of the total Indian Pharma market (1) .However there is a
perceptible shift towards chronic therapies in India with Diabetes, CV & CNS drugs registering robust
growth (2). The future bodes well for companies focusing on these segments.
The impact of these changes is felt in the vulnerability of the younger age groups to serious disorders.
The age group vulnerable to cardiovascular, diabetic, psychotropic & sexual dysfunction disorders has
reduced from 60+ years in the 1970s, to 50+ in the 1980s to 40+ in the 1990s to 30+ today (3) . Every
sixth diabetic in the world is an Indian today, but by 2030, every second diabetic is going to be Indian as
the Indian diabetic population is set to explode from 32 Million in 2003 to 81 Million in 2030(4).
Lifestyle Segment-Leading players (Table1)
Lifestyle Segment World’s Leading Players
Obesity Abbott, Sanofi
Cardiovascular Pfizer, Merck
Diabetes Aventis, Pfizer
Psychotropics (CNS) Lilly, GSK
Ulcers AstraZeneca, Abbott
Sexual Dysfunction Pfizer, Lilly, GSK
Source- ORG IMS
Pharma Trends … 4On a contrary note, better healthcare facilities and medicines have led to increased life expectancy
levels worldwide (India 64 years). This has spawned a growing geriatric (Age >55 years) market
resulting in a high incidence of unique geriatric disorders like Alzheimers, Parkinsonism, Kidney (Renal)
& Eye (Retinal) and a variety of Cancers.
People contract serious disorders at an young age but through better medicines are living longer,
exposing them to the risk of geriatric diseases. Drugs prescribed for such disorders are rarely changed,
unless there is no drug effect or a side effect. These chronic disorders rarely have outward symptoms.
The average period for which drugs for hypertension, cholesterol, diabetes and mental disorders are
being consumed have doubled over the last decade from eight years to sixteen years(5).
The lifestyle and geriatric segments are thrust areas for pharma researchers and marketers and should
continue to drive growth in the near future.
Focus on Women's Health
Women have emerged as a key consumer, accounting for a greater share of prescriptions and
patients(6), than men. Increase in the number of working women worldwide, is exposing them to the
perils of stress & sedentary lifestyles. Pharma R&D is focused on each stage of the female life cycle in
unique segments like menstrual disorders, pregnancy, infections, hormones, contraception, cancers,
mental disorders and osteoporosis.
Source- Centaur Pharmaceuticals- Survey of 120 Indian Medical Consultants, November 2003
Pharma Trends … 5
Post-menopausal cardiovascular disorders have emerged as the leading cause of death in women,
even exceeding cancer (7). Besides, women are also existing major markets for nutritionals, skin &
beauty products.
Alternate Therapies
The world market for Herbals in 2002 was $62 Bn (8) with a steady growth growing steadily with Europe
accounting for a 49% market share. Herbals are traditionally perceived to be devoid of side effects by
the consumers and result in self-medication and long term use. Acceptance is very high as majority of
the drugs are over the counter (OTC or Non prescription). Oral publicity and faith across generations
fuel the demand for these drugs.
The Indian System of Medicine (ISM) includes ayurveda, unani, siddha and homeopathy, but is
concentrated mainly in the unorganized sector and on a smaller scale. The $ 1 Bn Indian market is
dominated by ayurvedic drugs contributing 83% of sales and showing excellent growth (9). Even a
Supreme Court judgement (10), restraining doctors of a speciality (eg ayurveda ) from prescribing drugs
of another speciality (eg allopathy) and vice-versa has not deterred prescriptions across specialities
leading to a boom in the ISM products.
Women Life Cycle & Disease / Disorder Profile (Table 2)
Menarche Child Bearing years Pre Menopause Post Menopause
Nutrition Infections Infections Hormone Therapy
Acne Contraception Contraception Osteoporosis
Anxiety Nutrition Nutrition Cancer
Appetite Anxiety Depression Depression
Pregnancy Diabetes Arthritis
Diabetes
Cardiovascular
Pharma Trends … 6
In India, alternate therapy practitioners (6.5 Lakhs) outnumber allopathy practitioners (5.5 Lacs) (11).
Many practitioners of alternate therapies also dispense these drugs raising serious quality concerns.
Few leading Indian pharma companies market allopathic as well as ayurvedic drugs. Established Indian
ayurvedic companies like Himalaya, Dabur, Zandu and Charak generate majority of their prescriptions
from allopathic doctors and export worldwide.
Leading players are entering this segment as prescriptions for ayurvedic drugs are generated even for
major indications like pregnancy, diabetes, liver, cardiovascular & psychotropic disorders. Earlier
prescriptions were confined only to nutritionals, gastro-intestinal disorders and aphrodisiacs. Alternate
therapies pose a serious threat to allopathic drugs, especially with better standardization.
Key Uncertainties and their impact
New Drug Approvals (NDA)
New drugs take 10-12 years of R&D and $800 Mn+ in investments before approval from the US Food &
Drugs Administration (USFDA) (12). R&D investments crossed $50 Bn in 2003(13) almost quadrupling
from the 1990 R&D spend. R&D costs of the top companies hovered around 10-15% of sales with
Pfizer-Pharmacia R&D budget for 2003 topping $7 Bn. This has raised serious issues of R&D
productivity as heavy investments are yet to pay off.
Source-The Pharma Review- Alternate Medicine October 2003
Pharma Trends … 7
NDA have steadily reduced to an all time low of only 30 drugs in 2003 (14) raising serious issues over
R&D productivity & feasibility. Reduced NDA have led to drying pipelines among top organizations
threatening their survival.
Major companies are outsourcing their R&D needs at various stages to smaller players in speciality
segments or to developing nations. Clinical research & trials although banned earlier are selectively
allowed now in India and this is a major opportunity for India due to its huge population and low costs.
Safety concerns about drugs can arise subsequent to launch or even later which can cause major
implications for the company and drug including withdrawal. Eg Vioxx
The approval process entails animal and human studies across various parameters and phases. Out of
5000 drugs applied for, less than 5 proceed for clinical testing, out of which only 1 is approved (15). If
NDA is unsuccessful, it can threaten the very existence of the company. Today companies merge,
essentially to save on R&D costs which otherwise are as high as 15% of sales(16).
Source- IMS
Pharma Trends … 8At present, only 10% of Phase I products reach the market. This low success rate is the major reason
for the $800 Mn+ costs of developing each commercialised product – out of which only 30% is
profitable. In 2002, of new drugs approvals only 22% were for new molecular entities, with the majority
being made up of line extensions, new formulations etc.
Drug Development Process of USFDA (Table 3)
Pre-Clinical Phase I Phase II Phase III USFDA Phase IV
Years 6.5 1.5 2 3.5 1.5
Additional
Post-
Marketing
testing
required
by USFDA
Test
Population
Lab, Animal
studies
20-100 healthy
volunteers
100-500
patients
1000-5000
patients
Review
Purpose Safety and
Biological
Activity,
Formulations
Safety
and Dosage
Effectiveness,
Adverse Drug
Reactions
Effectiveness,
Adverse Drug
Reactions,
Long term use
Review process
and approval
Success
Rate
5000
compounds
5 Compounds enter clinical trials 1 compound
approved
Costs $ 800 Mn +
For specific segments like HIV or some Cancers, drugs are fast-tracked circumventing the full 10-12
years needed for R&D as these are life saving drugs. Major companies were focused on the following
areas for R&D(17).
Source- Scrip Annual Review 2001
Source-Tufts Centre for Drug Development, Nov 2001
Pharma Trends … 9Successful future drugs will be those that are efficacious, safe and can be used across multiple
indications & specialties.
Critical Transforming Technologies (CTT)
CTT like Genomics, Proteomics and Nanotech could obviate the need for drugs in future if they are safe
& commercially viable. With these technologies, the ability of a person to contract a particular disease
could be predicted much earlier with a fair degree of accuracy. Then, the concerned gene could be
modified to avert the disease. Side effects though have not been fully studied of such technologies but
they promise much hope.
Advances in Novel Drug Delivery Systems (NDDS) could ensure ease of administration of medicine,
which if viable, can fuel demand due to sheer convenience. NDDS includes Inhaled Insulin, Nasal Viral
Spray, Anti-Cold Chewing Gums & Angina Patches. Ease of use of such treatments can ensure
excellent compliance levels, a serious concern today.
CTT could look at small but premium markets within major markets to offset huge development costs
rather than concentrate only on mass markets. Eg Drugs for rare cancers whose prevalence is only in
25% of cancer afflicted women have emerged as $ 500 Mn markets for two cancer drugs.
The internet has the potential to make the Medical Representative redundant, the Trade insignificant
and savings in huge promotional costs, leading to fewer channels, easier patient and doctor access,
more information and ultimately cheaper pricing.
Patent Expiry Management
Patents are issued for a period of 20 years from the date of application and not from the date of launch.
This gives the drug a period of 8-10 years in which to recover an investment of more than $800 Mn and
also make profits for sustaining the organization and aiding further R&D.
Pharma Trends … 10
Pharma industry operates on the ‘Blockbuster‘ model where many drugs reach more than $1 Bn in
sales and companies strive to develop blockbusters which gives them huge profits, trade muscle and
customer support. Currently there are 44 such brands in the WPM with Pfizer alone accounting for 9
blockbusters(18).
Shortening brand reigns for top brands have been the norm in the world pharma market with peak sales
period being only 2-3 years for the major brands. Zantac, Losec and Lipitor all brand leaders, have
enjoyed major brand reigns but increased competition from same-in-class molecules has led to lesser
market share and hence a shorter brand reign.
Companies initially launch a drug only for certain indications and subsequently extend it for other
indications, perpetuating their monopoly eg A pain killer may initially be introduced only for arthritis and
subsequently extended for back ache, head ache, dental pain etc in various strengths (25 mg, 50 mg,
100mg) or across various forms like tablets for adults, syrup for kids and drops for infants.
Companies also work on racemic mixtures/isomers/salts or similar versions of the product that are
launched when the original product expires. Newer dosages like once daily instead of twice or newer
drug delivery systems like extended release could also be introduced.
Source- Generics- CLSA Analyst Report-Oct 2002
Pharma Trends … 11
Other tactics used are to sully the reputation of the existing product when the new isomer is ready, to
protect & expand their market. Combinations with other drugs are also used for synergy through
strategic tie-ups with players in similar markets.
Immediately after the patent expires, the drug can be launched in the generic form by a competitor who
gets an exclusivity of 180 days to market the product at a price determined by the competitor. This is
where smaller generic companies make money or receive windfalls as cost of manufacturing generics is
negligible. However the patent holders fight back and costs of litigation are exceedingly high. In 2003
the litigation costs of Pfizer, GSK & Wyeth were $4.5 Bn(19), almost equivalent to the entire Indian
pharma market.
Patent expiries result in sales erosion to the tune of even 80% in a single year and unless the drug
cannot be approved for newer indications / strengths / extensions / racemic mixtures to perpetuate their
stranglehold, generic approvals can wreak havoc. eg Prozac ( fluoxetine), an anti-depressant from Eli
Lilly lost 80% of sales value in the first year of patent expiry to generic competition(20).
Claritin, an anti-allergy blockbuster drug filed for the drug to be converted to (OTC) from a prescription
drug, immediately on patent expiry and successfully got the decision in their favour from the USFDA.
This was a unique decision and put the plans of Morepen, an Indian company, which had planned for
the generic rights, totally off course. This tactic can only be used for drugs with an OTC appeal like cold,
cough, allergy, fever drugs with a suitable safety profile
Drugs worth $51 Bn are to go off patents by 2010 (21) leading to a race for their generic drugs. This
presents a major opportunity for Indian firms as it entails only a fraction of the cost & time needed for
new drug development. Ranbaxy is already among the Top 10 Generic firms in the US. More than 25%
of Abbreviated New Drug Approvals (ANDA) for generic approvals were filed by Indian companies in
2003(22). Generics account for 40% of all prescriptions in the US but only 15% of the value(23).
Pharma Trends … 12
Patented drugs lead to exorbitant pricing as costs of R&D and future drug development needs to be
recovered, which developing markets may not be able to afford. eg GSK's patented AIDS therapy costs
50 times Cipla's AIDS therapy which caters to crucial African &
Asian markets. A classic case of rip-off pricing under the garb of
patents by drug majors.
The World and Indian Pharma Markets- Insights and Issues
The World Pharma Market (WPM)
grew @ 8% in 2003 to nudge $500 Bn
in sales(24). It is slated to touch $ 800
Bn by 2010(25). The top 10 countries account for 86% of world pharma sales with the US alone
contributing 47% and growing @ 10%(26). It is said that the country that wins in the US, wins the world
pharma market and every major player wants a slice of the hugely profitable US market. The Top10
companies in the WPM contribute 45% (27) while the Top10 companies in India contribute 33% clearly
conveying the fragmented nature(28).
The largest therapeutic class (TC) is cholesterol reducers but obesity & hypertension are slated to be
the biggest TCs by 2010(29). Lipitor (Pfizer), a cholesterol reducer (statin) continued its reign as the
worlds biggest brand clocking sales in excess of $ 10 Bn(30) (Twice the Indian Pharma market). The
Cardiovascular segment is the largest segment with a 20% market share, a pattern seen across the top
15 countries except for China & India where Anti-Infectives (24 & 30%) is the largest segment(31).
% Contribution of Major Pharma Markets (Table 4)
% 2000 2001 2002 2003
North America 48 50 51 49
Europe 24 24 25 28
Japan 16 13 12 11
Latin America 6 5 4 4
Asia, Australia, Africa 6 8 8 8
World Pharma Market ($ Bn) 364 392 434 492
Top 10 Countries 2003 (Table 5)
Markets $ Bn Markets $ Bn
US 211 UK 11
Japan 54 Spain 9
Germany 19 Canada 9
France 17 Mexico 7.5
Italy 14 China 7
Source IMS
Pharma Trends … 13
The Indian Pharma Market manages only 1% world pharma market share with a $5 Bn market growing
@ 8%. It is the world’s 14th largest market in value terms but 4th largest unit wise. By 2010, it is
estimated to double to $ 10 Bn with a 1.25% share. Chronic therapies would then contribute 50% and
major segments would be Cardiovasculars and CNS. Antibiotics would reduce from 30% today to 23%
in 2010(32).
The Indian Pharma Market has seen dwindling growth rates from 15%+ growth of the 1980s & 10%+
growth of the 1990s to 8% today. Out of this 8% growth, new products contribute 8% and price
increases 1%. but degrowing existing products @ -1% ensured overall growth remained at 8%(33).
With product patents effective Jan’05, the frequency and as a result, value of new products would
considerably shrink, further curbing growth. Seven Indian companies rank among the top 10
companies against only three MNCs (GSK, Pfizer and Aventis) in 2003, a far cry from the 1980s when
six MNCs ranked in the top10.
Source- India’s Pharma challenge-The Mckinsey Quarterly 2001
Source- The Indian Pharma Market Intelligence, IMS Direct Issue, December 2002
Pharma Trends … 14
The Indian patents act of 1970 acknowledged process patents and not product patents, which gave
local players an impetus to emerge strong producers of formulations and bulk actives by copying
patented drugs through reverse engineering, and sell at affordable prices. This act thwarted plans of
MNCs, who then did not file patents in India. Post 2005 this would change as product patents would be
applicable which would facilitate patented new drugs from the MNC stables at exorbitant prices.
A vagary of the Indian pharma market is that eight out of the top 10 brands are more than thirty years
old(34) and have withstood intense industry competition. In India, MNCs have been more adept at
building and sustaining huge brands than Indian companies.
Traditionally new products have taken time to enter the top brands league eg There is only one brand
(Zifi) launched in the last five years among the top 50 brands in India unlike in the world market, where
all brands in the top 40 are less than fifteen years old except for Adalat (Bayer’s Nifedipine) launched in
the late 70s.
Government pricing pressures are severely affecting margins worldwide especially in EU, Japan &
India. Net profits of the top 15 firms worldwide averaged only 5.5% in 2003 against 9% in 1998. In India,
the Top 10 Indian firms garnered average net profits of 9% in 2003(35).
Appeasement of trade channels continues worldwide, with retailer margins @ twice the industry
margins. Average margins of pharmacies on drugs are 16-20% in India and 20% + outside.
Synergies in M&A are not evident either in terms of major R&D savings or increased New Drug
Approvals. Shareholders are dismayed and worker lay-offs continue to mount.
Counterfeiting of drugs is rampant, as one in ten medicines sold worldwide is fake, treating nothing but
providing about $ 32 Bn (six and half times the Indian pharma market) in annual sales for drug dealers.
WHO estimates 200,000 annual deaths from malaria could be avoided if available medicines were of
Pharma Trends … 15
high enough quality to be effective. China, Nigeria, former Soviet republics, India and Bangladesh are
countries regularly singled out by pharmaceutical firms as centres of counterfeit production, and its
distribution follows routes used by established drug traffickers. This menace can only be arrested by
stricter controls and policies.
The Future for India …. Opportunities unlimited
Post 2005, the Indian pharmaceutical market is due for a paradigm shift and many of India’s 20,000+
pharma companies may not survive the post patent scenario as it will shut out the one opportunity that
allowed most Indian drug manufacturers to flourish - reverse engineering. But, local majors could even
benefit, as drug prices in the country may rise. With a lead time of ten years to prepare for TRIPs since
1995, many home grown companies have embarked on survival strategies, including:
Mergers and acquisitions, within India and overseas eg Wockhardt
Presence in new markets, particularly in the developed and developing countries eg IPCA
Licensing agreements, in- and out- eg Glenmark
New chemical entities (NCE) R&D and new drug delivery for old products eg Dr Reddys
Consolidation to emerge as specialty pharma company with critical mass eg Cipla
Niching into specialty segments eg Natco
Establishing capacities abroad eg Ajanta Pharma
Contract manufacturing eg Nicholas Piramal
Generics eg Ranbaxy
Tie-ups for bulk actives and intermediates eg Centaur
Lack of patent protection in India, enabled local companies to build their businesses largely on the
manufacture and sale of drugs discovered by other firms, often launching copies in India before the
originator had introduced them in leading global markets. To avoid patent litigation, many developed
new production methods to avoid infringing process patents, which are considered valid in India. US
companies lose $1.7 Bn(37) annually to Indian companies due to lack of intellectual property protection
exports to countries with poor patent protection.
Pharma Trends … 16
Technical expertise has put Indian producers in pole position to launch their generics in more lucrative
developed markets once the brand’s patents and/or exclusivity periods have expired. Ironically, the
adoption of TRIPs in their domestic market has encouraged companies like Ranbaxy, Dr Reddy’s and
Cipla to turn to the US, where a number of blockbusters have still to go off-patent.
Strategic options for Indian companies
Local
Only 40% Indians afford medicines. This latent demand can be exploited through government
support and medical Insurance to profitably market to the bottom of the pyramid
India can emerge as a major market for developing new drug intermediates for pharma majors
Existing Indian companies can consolidate operations to achieve critical mass locally and build
substantial presence in lifestyle segments especially CV, CNS, Diabetes, Obesity. Niche by
encashing doctor franchise across therapeutic categories and doctor specialities
Explore OTC and Herbals options in India
Leverage distribution and marketing reach to form alliances and explore co-marketing options
International
Acquire smaller manufacturing firms in strategic markets with access to major markets eg
Eastern Europe catering to the EU or Central America catering to the US and Latin America.
Cost of drug discovery in India is a fraction of the cost in the US. India’s quality intellectual
capital can be used productively for clinical research, biotechnology and R&D.
Optimise low operational costs and reverse engineering skills to emerge as ‘Pill factory to the
world’. Affirm status as the country with the largest number of USFDA-approved manufacturing
plants outside US through major contract and generic manufacturing tie-ups
India’s strategic location can cater effectively to the orient or the occident. Exports currently
worth $2 billion a year, could be boosted to make the Indian industry a truly global player
Foray into Herbals especially in Europe or Asia
Provide low cost technology inputs to major players
Pharma Trends … 17
Establish presence in least developed countries (LDC) where patents would be applicable in
2014 eg Nepal and Bangladesh
Post 2005, 15% or (Rs 3000 Crore) worth of patented products manufactured by Indian firms would
have to be withdrawn due to patent infringements. The initial impact of TRIPs could be modest,
especially as the Indian government is expected to do the minimum necessary to comply. MNCs may
keep their drug prices at the lower end of the global scale but as MNCs seek to have their products
protected, strong lobbies would press for the continuing manufacture of cheap retro drugs.
"India's not there yet, not in the same category as China or Mexico as it is only about to
recognise IPR next year. And it will take some years... before there really is a sound base for a
multinational company to develop and launch its new products in India with great success. But
it will come in time and I'm confident India will become an important market." Sir Tom McKillop,
CEO-AstraZeneca, October 2004 commenting on the company’s decision not to launch any
new molecule in India till 2008 due to weak Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) (38).
Research Questions that emerge
The young get older but the old stay younger- Key dynamics driving these pharma market shifts
Leveraging its huge intellectual capital, reverse engineering skills and low cost base, can India
emerge as the ‘Pill factory & Research capital of the world’
Can accessibility & affordability of quality medicines be increased in India to profitably market to
the bottom of the pyramid
Is Generics the big opportunity for pharma companies in the developing world or would they be
washed away in the legal muddle
Will India unleash its potential to emerge as a pharma global giant or would it remain an
underachieving pygmy
Could the patent regime be the beginning of the end for the adroit Indian pharma industry or
would homegrown reverse engineering skills and tacit government support see them flourish
Can R&D be made more productive, effective and profitable
What would be the key sustainable strategies in successfully marketing drugs to Women
Pharma Trends … 18
Can critical transforming technologies be made efficacious, viable and safe; obviating the need
for traditional drugs, and hence pharma companies
What are the crucial factors affecting the marketing performance of pharmaceutical firms
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Pharma Trends … 19
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Pharma Trends … 20
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Pharma Trends … 21
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