emerging technologies & energy trust’s resource assessment
DESCRIPTION
Emerging Technologies & Energy Trust’s Resource Assessment . New Approach. Consider range of emerging technologies Predict future improvements in cost & savings Be realistic about odds of fruition Define incrementally to conventional measures. Risk Considerations. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Emerging Technologies & Energy Trust’s Resource Assessment
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New Approach• Consider range of
emerging technologies
• Predict future improvements in cost & savings
• Be realistic about odds of fruition
• Define incrementally to conventional measures
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ET Risk Factor
Risk Category 10% 30% 50% 70% 90%
Market Risk(25% weighting)
High Risk:• Requires new/changed
business model• Start-up, or small manufacturer• Significant changes to
infrastructure• Requires training of
contractors. Consumer acceptance barriers exist.
Low Risk:• Trained contractors• Established business models• Already in U.S. Market• Manufacturer committed to
commercialization
Technical Risk(25% weighting)
High Risk: Prototype in first field tests. A single or unknown approach
Low volume manufacturer.Limited experience
New product with broad commercial appeal
Proven technology in different application or different region
Low Risk: Proven technology in target application. Multiple potentially viable approaches.
Data Source Risk(50% weighting)
High Risk: Based only on manufacturer claims
Manufacturer case studies
Engineering assessment or lab test
Third party case study (real world installation)
Low Risk: Evaluation results or multiple third party case studies
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Risk Considerations
How developed is the market?• Are there manufacturers?• Is the public likely to accept the product?• Is there a contractor/installer network?
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Risk Considerations
Is the technology proven?• Single lab/field tests• Small volume manufacturer• New product but broad appeal• Proven technology, but different market or
application• Proven technology in target application
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Risk Considerations
How confident are we in the data?• Manufacturer’s claims/case studies• Lab/field test• 3rd party lab/field test• Multiple tests or evaluations
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Example Emerging Technologies• LEDs• Advanced HVAC controls• Advanced refrigeration controls• Advanced solar water heater• Heat recovery ventilation• CO2 heat pump water heaters• Gas absorption heat pump water heater
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ResultsRes New
9%
Res Existing27%
Res ET2%
Comm New10%Comm Existing
14%
Comm ET10%
Ind Existing27%
Ind ET1%
20 yr Cost Effective Electric Po-tential (617 aMW)
Res New6%
Res Existing20%
Res ET8%
Comm New4%
Comm Existing25%
Comm ET1%
Ind Existing34%
Ind ET2%
20 yr Cost Effective Gas Potential (64 Mtherm)
Res New7%
Res Existing14%
Res ET16%
Comm New8%Comm Existing
10%
Comm ET19%
Ind Existing22%
Ind ET3%
20 yr Cost Effective Electric Po-tential (737 aMW)
Res New6%
Res Existing20%
Res ET29%
Comm New3%
Comm Existing16%
Comm ET2%
Ind Existing22%
Ind ET3%
20 yr Cost Effective Gas Potential (101 Mtherm)
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Room for Improvement• Are we evaluating the right risks?
• Are the risk factors appropriately scaled?
• Include more emerging technologies
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Thank YouTed LightSr. Planning Project [email protected]