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Global Futures & Foresight

David Smith Chief Executive

Global Futures and Foresight

Copyright © 2014 Global Futures and Foresight Limited

Emerging Technologies Implications for society and risks and opportunities for business

http://www.intertechpira.com/default.asp




With change comes risk

• Root causes of declines in

public companies’ value:

• ~60% strategic risks.

• ~ 30% operational risks.

• ~10% financial risks.

"the assumptions on which the organization has been built and is being run no longer fit reality."Peter Drucker

Source: Society of Actuaries (2013) : Enterprise Risk Management: Looking Forward





elm.neworldiq.com




elm.neworldiq.com


Looking back at the future

“interesting toys, but no military value”

Marechal Foch, talking about airplanes in 1911





... and the telephone

“The 'telephone' has too

many shortcomings to be

seriously considered as a

means of communication.

The device is inherently

of no value to us.”

Western Union internal memo, 1876.

Over 1 billion telephone lines

Over 6 billion mobiles





Innovation

48 Years

1810 1858

Ezra Warner of Waterbury, Connecticut patented the first can opener





1. Globalization

2. Changes in work

3. Demographics & people

4. Technology

5. Consumption

6. Environment

Mega trends

http://csr-news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-and-the-future-of-corporate-social-responsibility/





















Global Futures & Foresight www.watchblog.com Source: Population Research Bureau www.prb.org

The global population is expected to rise from 6.5bn in 2005 to 7.7bn in 2020 and 9.6bn in 2050

Global population growth





“The size of the world economy will triple

over the next four decades as emerging-

market economies wield increasing power”

“World GDP to double within two decades”





Islamic population

• 24% of world population.

• 33% in 2050.

• 37% by 2100. Pew Research

• Global Takaful:

– $8.3bn in 2010.

– $25bn by 2015.

• 1% of global insurance.

http://www.freeworldacademy.com/globalleader/population.htm

$3 trillion Halal market today $30 trillion by 2050




http://www.freeworldacademy.com/globalleader/population.htm


Global ageing by 2050

• Over 60’s:

– Mature economies - 22% to 33%.

– Developing world - 9% to 20%.

• 80% of the world’s over 60’s.

• 25% of China’s people over 65.

• Japan alone has 30% over 60 now.

– 64 countries will have by 2050.

http://info.cancerresearchuk.org/cancerstats/world/demographics/demographic-facts-for-the-world-population

http://www.global-ageing.eu/Bilder/collage.png

http://www.unescap.org/sdd/issues/ageing/ageing.asp

http://www.aicpa.org/RESEARCH/CPAHORIZONS2025/GLOBALFORCES/SOCIALANDHUMANRESOURCE/Pages/default.aspx

By the time a person born today is 80, their life

expectancy would have gone well past 110.















http://www.unescap.org/sdd/issues/ageing/ageing.asp

http://www.aicpa.org/RESEARCH/CPAHORIZONS2025/GLOBALFORCES/SOCIALANDHUMANRESOURCE/Pages/default.aspx


And we’re living longer lives

Human life expectancies have

the potential to reach 500, or

possibly even 1000.

“In the near future, the next two

to four decades, the disease of

ageing will be cured.”

Dr. Aubrey de Grey B.A.,

M.A. and Ph.D.,

University of Cambridge,

Cambridge, UK.

Born 20th April 1963

Robert A. Freitas Jr. is

Senior Research

Fellow at the Institute

for Molecular

Manufacturing





Health and wellness

By 2030

• Overweight & obese

doubles to 3.3bn.

• Non-communicable

diseases to cost £29tn.

• Cancer rates jump 75%.

http://www.weforum.org/news/non-communicable-diseases-cost-47-trillion-2030-new-study-released-today http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21568065-world-getting-wider-says-charlotte-howard-what-can-be-done-about-it-big http://www.webmd.com/cancer/news/20120531/global-cancer-rates-set-to-soar-by-2030

We are living longer but not necessarily healthier.

Record 4m in the UK have

diabetes: 90% have obesity-

related Type 2 variant




http://www.weforum.org/news/non-communicable-diseases-cost-47-trillion-2030-new-study-released-today





















http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21568065-world-getting-wider-says-charlotte-howard-what-can-be-done-about-it-big





























http://www.webmd.com/cancer/news/20120531/global-cancer-rates-set-to-soar-by-2030
















Change is coming

TECHNOLOGY & COMMUNICATIONS





• Growth of the Internet

• Cloud services

• Social Networks

• Mobile devices

• Big data, predictive

• 3D printers

• AI, Avatars & virtuality

• Augmented reality - Google Glass

• Humanoid robots and transhumanism

Technology and communications ‘For a list of all the ways technology has failed to improve

the quality of life, please press three.’ Alice Kahn.





Mobile to 2018

£29.99 Ubislate 7Ci

http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/VNI-Forecast_QA.html/index.html

• Mobile data traffic growth 61% cagr.

• 66% of devices – smartphones.

• Speeds increase 2.6-fold.

• 15.9 Exabyte's/month. 69% video.

• Functions:

– Payments

– Environment

– Travel

– Health & wellness

– Context etc.
















Mobile first

• Mobile users surpass desktop

users in 2014. Morgan Stanley

• Just 33% of websites are

optimised for mobile Experian

http://www.iabuk.net/about/press/archive/consumer-mobile-usage-to-increase-dramatically-by-2015

http://www.blogging4jobs.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/mobile-recruiting-hr-best-practices1.png

http://www.experian.co.uk/marketing-services/news-digital-trends-2013.html

The days of just ‘keeping up’ with advances in mobile

technology are over for firms. PwC





























Wearables

• $19bn revenue by 2018.

– $1.4bn in 2013.

• 6% of businesses given

these to their staff...

– Next logical step.

• 21% already wear a device or

use App. to track health.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57607524-94/wearable-tech-revenue-to-hit-$19b-by-2018/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23579404

http://www.idgconnect.com/blog-abstract/3419/how-will-wearable-technology-impact-business-world

‘For businesses - implications for systems development, insight

and analytics, leadership & competitive advantage.’

http://s3files.core77.com/blog/images/2013/04/where-wearable-tech.jpg












































The mobile consumer in context

• Where am I?

• What am I doing?

• Who’s around me?

• Where am I going?

• What would help me?

– Where

– What

– Who





Social Insurance

• 1.85bn people use social media.

• 70% of firms use social tech.

• $1.3tn pa of new value. McKinsey

• In Germany Friendsurance is a

pioneer of social/P2P insurance.

• Personal and commercial.

http://www.newmediatrendwatch.com/world-overview/137-social-networking-and-ugc

http://www.jouve.com/en/emerging-business-models-and-impact-digital-technology-our-society

http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2012/06/peer-peer-insurance

http://blog.premiersocialmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/social-enterprise2.jpg

‘...insuring in self-selecting groups

can improve the quality of the risk.’ Gartner






































Telematics

• Telematic insurance market

worth €50 billion by 2020.

• Services provided progressive

and increasingly personalised.

• High level of consumer interest.

– 82% of consumers would try the

technology if it lowered their premium. Accenture’s 2011 UK motor industry research

http://www.machinetomachinemagazine.com/tag/telematics-insurance-policy/

http://www.postonline.co.uk/post/feature/2155883/telematics-aggregators-future-motor-insurance

http://satelliteradioplayground.com/2012/10/09/safety-telematics-to-reach-75-of-autos-in-u-s-by-2017/

http://insurance.pbbiblogs.com/files/2011/12/telematics.jpg

By 2017, 75% of new cars in the U.S. could

offer telematics for safety & security.










































Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles





Driverless cars

• Autonomous vehicles likely

75% of cars on road by 2040. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers

– Transportation-as-a-service.

– Renting on hourly rates

becoming a viable option to

ownership..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-19726951

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/09/driverless-cars-would-reshape-automobiles-and-the-transit-system/262953/

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/science/120923/driverless-cars-mid-century-our-likely-future-says-technology-associati

http://ww1.hdnux.com/photos/15/27/65/3505476/3/628x471.jpg

The end of consumer

automotive insurance?












































Internet of everything By 2020

• One trillion sensors embedded in humans and machines.

• We will each own 50 internet connected devices.

http://www.industrytap.com/the-hybird-age/3651










Wellness Complete health profile

• Genetic profiling.

• Personalised medicine/treatments.

• Proteins in the blood immediately indicate a person’s health.

– 4,000 blood proteins it can detect 1,100.

– Current methods detect only 20 to 30 proteins at a time.

http://blogs.dolcera.com/blog/category/biotechnology/

http://blogs.computerworld.com/17991/new_biochip_gives_blood_test_results_in_minutes




http://blogs.dolcera.com/blog/category/biotechnology/

http://blogs.computerworld.com/17991/new_biochip_gives_blood_test_results_in_minutes


Predictive insurance

• 85% of U.S. personal lines

insurers are committed to

predictive modeling.

• 41% of FS org’s say

predictive analytics is

more about minimising

risk than exploiting

opportunities: SAP

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20120311/NEWS08/303119994

http://www.towerswatson.com/research/6291

http://press.pwc.com/GLOBAL/foreign-insurers-bank-on-new-business-models-to-succeed-in-china/s/6ea3c75e-76d1-47bf-bede-24f71794fb56

http://firedream.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Predictive-Modeling-Image-240-px-wide1.jpg

Insurance transforms from reactive to

a preventative business model






http://www.towerswatson.com/research/6291
































Preventative Apps

• Apps and peripheral devices

monitor conditions, submit

insurance claims, shorten time

underwriter uses to make a

determination.

• Two Japanese car insurers

co-developed a smartphone

app to reduce claims.

• Warns of possible accidents

and to establish culpability in

the event of a crash.

http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/car-insurance-companies-develop-smartphone-app-aimed-at-reducing-claims

https://d13uygpm1enfng.cloudfront.net/article-imgs/en/2012/07/20/AJ201207200064/AJ201207200065M.jpg
























• Artificial Intelligence (AI) - we will

interact with it like humans.

• e-technology advanced:

– Fewer human interactions

– More strategic focus.

• Face & voice recognition that

identifies emotional changes.

• Holographic by 2015

• Haptic by 2020

Source: http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394

Engaging with technology




http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394


Engaged through technology

By 2019

• 3D virtual reality displays,

• Embedded in glasses & contact lenses.

• Primary interfaces to connect with

other people, computers, the Web

and virtual reality. Kurzweil

• Linking our senses with other people’s

senses or machines.





“When you put on the goggles, it’s

different from anything I have ever

experienced in my life,” Mark Zuckerberg





Brain-to-computer interfaces

• Future pilots control

their aircraft by merely

thinking commands.

• Now demonstrated the

feasibility of flying via

brain control - with

astonishing accuracy.

http://phys.org/news/2014-05-thoughts-airplanes.html?sf26752737=1

http://www.businessinsider.com/emerging-neuro-and-cognitive-technologies-2014-4#ixzz33lgw7ppZ

Scientifically viable in 2020; mainstream in

2022; financially viable in 2027

http://wingwire.com/app/webroot/files/4_525_1403287387.jpg











http://www.businessinsider.com/emerging-neuro-and-cognitive-technologies-2014-4














Brain-to-brain interfaces

• Brain interfaces transmit information between people.

– Allowing the receiving brain to perform tasks without training.

http://www.businessinsider.com/emerging-neuro-and-cognitive-technologies-2014-4#ixzz33lgw7ppZ

Scientifically viable in 2025; mainstream

in 2026; financially viable in 2027

http://abcnewsradioonline.com/storage/news-images/Getty_082813_BrainToBrain.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1377708614654


















Cognitive computing

• IBM Watson being used at

call centres for:

– Investment advice.

– Legal advice.

– Medical diagnosis.

http://www.research.ibm.com/cognitive-computing/index.shtml#fbid=aPR_vm5T-Ms

http://ebooks.capgemini-consulting.com/Digital-Transformation-Review-5/#/14/

http://cdn.nextgov.com/media/img/upload/2013/03/21/032113chipNG/nextgov-medium.jpg

By 2025 it will reduce complexity brought

about by enhanced data volumes.




http://www.research.ibm.com/cognitive-computing/index.shtml





http://ebooks.capgemini-consulting.com/Digital-Transformation-Review-5/










New co-workers

Acroid 1 Shakira 2 Clooney 1





3D Printing The next trillion $ industry

• A $3bn industry by 2018.

• Airbus - 3D printed planes by 2050.

• First “printed home” built.

• Commercial buildings will follow.

• Transform manufacturing,

insurance, distribution, logistics,

retailing, food, surgery …

Source: Futurist Speaker, May 2012 http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2012/05/transforming-the-future-of-the-insurance-industry/?goback=%2Egde_145854_member_118622940




http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2012/05/transforming-the-future-of-the-insurance-industry/?goback=%2Egde_145854_member_118622940














First we do things differently Then we do different things





Adapt or die?

• Nearly 40% worry that

‘...their organisations will be

unable to keep up with

technology change and will

lose their competitive edge.’

http://www.managementthinking.eiu.com/sites/default/files/downloads/EIU_Humans%20&%20machines_FINAL_WEB.pdf

http://www.burrus.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/98476609.jpg




http://www.managementthinking.eiu.com/sites/default/files/downloads/EIU_Humans & machines_FINAL_WEB.pdf

Global Futures & Foresight BUSINESS MODELS





Shifting principles

• Technology overload

– Not well-equipped culturally and

emotionally for so much technology.

• Telemetrics and smartphones

– The Principle of Loss Minimization.

• Precaution

– Precautionary Principle long-term shift.

– Technology moves beyond what we

can knowingly see and understand.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HBm3TfJzSQI/T_1uxqqDyUI/AAAAAAAADis/GSrOvMp_3rA/s1600/im-watching-you-focker.jpg





Shifting principles

• Market of one

– Better analytics, and viral forms of

human connectedness.

– Craft reliable probabilities around small

groups - single individual or event.

• Risk transference

– No certainties in future only probabilities.

• Resolution not compensation

– Claims hard to remedy with money-only.

http://www.vitalbodies.net/site/images/stories/uploads/Caveat_Emptor_640x360_0.png

http://rlv.zcache.com/number_one_billiards_ball_sticker-p217117246426112368envb3_400.jpg





• From non-banks could erode 1/3 of traditional bank revenues by 2020.

• 89% of insurers say competition intensifies in distribution in 3 years.

• 64% say from non-insurance players - Google, Amazon, Walmart…

Emerging competition

http://newsroom.accenture.com/news/insurance-sold-through-digital-channels-to-reach-25-billion-annually-in-europe-according-to-accenture-

study.htm?c=glb_accglbtwt_10000945&n=smc_0713#sf18286796

http://www.netrate.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Enhanced-Insurer-Agent-Connectivity-in-Insurance-Distribution-Chain.jpg http://blogs.hbr.org/2014/02/banks-new-competitors-starbucks-google-and-alibaba/




http://newsroom.accenture.com/news/insurance-sold-through-digital-channels-to-reach-25-billion-annually-in-europe-according-to-accenture-study.htm?c=glb_accglbtwt_10000945&n=smc_0713
































http://blogs.hbr.org/2014/02/banks-new-competitors-starbucks-google-and-alibaba/














Reorientated business models

• Shift from ‘inside-out’

perspective to ‘outside-in.’

• A shift to a world of:

– Web-based.

– Decentralised.

– Front-office-oriented.

– Mobile.

– Touch-screen.

– Consumer-oriented.

– Co-creation

• Informed by data analysis.

http://www.insurancetech.com/management-strategies/insurance-companies-embrace-emerging-tec/232200668

http://www.theharteofmarketing.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/customer-centric-outside-in-reorg-harte.jpg
















From reactive to preventative

– From:

• Structured data/tactical

decision-making/reactive

business model.

– To:

• Unstructured data/strategic

decision-making/preventive

model.

Half expect new sources and techniques in data

analytics to be the key competitive differentiator. PWC survey





The knowable future

• Tomorrow's technology will

know what we want before we

know we want it ourselves.

• 68% of consumers aren't okay

with targeted advertising.

‘…they don't like having their online

behaviour tracked and analyzed.’

http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/18/tech/predictive-technology-future/index.html

It’s all about

TRUST










Hyper personalisation

• Crop insurance company.

• Crunches mass data from climate

models, weather measurements

and billions of soil observations.

• 50tb of live data are in its systems.

• Policies for specific plantings.

• Paid on specific events – not on

impact.

• Founded by ex-Googlers.

http://futureoftech-discuss.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/10/13/8306533-insuring-against-extreme-weather?lite

The Climate Corporation

If covered weather event happens

you get paid automatically.
















Gamification

• Over 50% of firms will

gamify their innovation

processes by 2020.

• Increasing public

participation in co-creating

products and services.

http://mashable.com/2011/07/28/gamification/

http://www.yourcarma.com.au/article/News/Speed-Camera-Lottery.aspx?id=59




http://mashable.com/2011/07/28/gamification/

Global Futures & Foresight WORK





• Technology to automate

a third of UK jobs over

next 20 years. Deloitte

• 60% of CEOs believe

smart machines to be a

‘futurist fantasy.’

http://techcrunch.com/2014/11/11/automation-uk-jobs/

http://www.cbronline.com/news/tech/cio-agenda/the-boardroom/gartner-predicts-smart-machines-will-have-deep-business-impact-by-2020

http://www.audiotech.com/trends-magazine/wp-content/themes/Trends/timthumb.php?src=http://www.audiotech.com/trends-

magazine/images/articles/2012/04/02.png&h=300&w=565&zc=1&q=90

Automation could challenge global economic order.

It will redefine notions of value, work and employment.

Work automation Manual Clerical Managerial Professional




































Standardize and personalise paradox

• There is a need to

standardize processes

whilst personalizing

services/products.

• By 2015, 40% of an org’s

work will be ‘non-routine’

up from 25% in 2010.

Gartner

http://www.cognizant.com/business-consulting/Site%20Documents/HBR%20WP-

Reinvention_Business_exec%20summary%20June%202012.pdf

http://gigaom.com/collaboration/the-future-of-work-10-ways-that-the-world-of-work-will-change-in-the-2010s/

http://static.hbr.org/hbrg-main/resources/images/site-programming/homepage/spotlight/121209-content-package-reinvention.jpg




http://www.cognizant.com/business-consulting/Site Documents/HBR WP-Reinvention_Business_exec summary June 2012.pdf





































Value shifting outside the enterprise

• Organizations outnumbered by the

resources provided by their network.

• Business value from the social world.

– Crowdsourcing.

– Open and social supply chains.

– Open innovation.

– Co-creation.

– Social media marketing.

• Virtual teams can lead to increased

efficiency and better business results.

Sloan Review (MIT)





Social networks

• Changed the way we live. • Social and political processes.

• Change the way we work. • Global

• Work Swarms

• New Management processes. • Collaborate around problems.

• Faster and more creative solutions.

The post e-mail era Adds $1.3tn per year – 66% through collaboration

Social Media 20-25% improvement in

productivity of knowledge workers.


McKinsey Global Institute pdf, July 2012, ‘The Social Economy: Unlocking value and productivity through social technologies.’
















Digital business

• Technology is moving

between 3-5 times faster

than management. (McKinsey MD Dom Bartoon)

• Just 39% of execs

believe their companies

have practices to adapt to

digital. (Forrester)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-23/davos-stalked-by-tech-disruption-as-intel-to-wal-mart-challenged.html http://solutions.forrester.com/disruption-sl?evar1=51174:943187&cmpid=PR:soc:tw:DDSL_Hub3

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kkYV2ELTd0k/Ue5xNVjVSZI/AAAAAAAADx0/13if9_QJ_Nk/s1600/disruption.jpg




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-23/davos-stalked-by-tech-disruption-as-intel-to-wal-mart-challenged.html

























http://solutions.forrester.com/disruption-sl?evar1=51174:943187&cmpid=PR:soc:tw:DDSL_Hub3




Keys to the future

• Innovation

• Skills

• Technology

• Enterprise data

management

• Predictive analytics

• Distribution

• Customer centric

• Insight rich

• Process optimised

• Organisational

change

• New management

thinking

• Flexibility and agility

• Collaborative culture




http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=5SM-n3V747lMfM&tbnid=eQ8mlEoApRyxhM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fkorporatiff.com.ua%2Fcorporate%2Fevent%2Fverevochnyj-trening-gorod-mechty.html&ei=lz88U67fFqie0QWVu4CQBA&bvm=bv.63934634,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNGzX3_YL8FWRDuw_3hZ-to4_s41Kg&ust=1396543651153584


Potential impact on brokers

• Disintermediation

• Transformation, not extinction.

– Retail was not killed by the

internet, but it has evolved.

– Intermediaries evolve.

• Insurance is about tailored

products, of negotiation and

judgment.

– The domain of the human being.

Source: http://www.insuranceday.com/insday/disintermediation-the-future-of-

brokers/278264.htm?queryText=disintermediation&searchResult=true

Global Futures

& Foresight

http://www.briantracy.com/images/products/originals/reinvention_detail.jpg




http://www.insuranceday.com/insday/disintermediation-the-future-of-brokers/278264.htm?queryText=disintermediation&searchResult=true











Potential impact on personal lines

• Greater commoditization

• Price transparency.

• Dis-intermediated direct buy.

• Virtual social community-led bulk

purchase.

– Lead to greater commoditization of

personal lines insurance.

• Decreasing profitability

– The increased number of megacities

being built in areas prone to natural

disaster could result in catastrophic

losses.

http://marketingland.com/leveraging-programmatic-media-buying-to-expand-reach-and-roi-of-retargeting-campaigns-15960





Impact on commercial lines

• Business model transformation

– Real-time data from sensors and

devices transforms models.

• Virtual business affinity groups

– Small business social networking

creates virtual business affinity groups:

• Pool risks.

• Greater predictable layers of risk.

– Automated underwriting

– The talent premium will have a greater

impact on commercial insurance.

http://www.fullfreesoftware.com/post/au/automate/automate.jpg





Impact on Life

• Business model transformation

– From admin to life engagement.

• Life extending

– Extended lives.

• Pool risks.

• New technologies, remedies.

– Genetics

– Proteins

– Replicable parts http://www.fullfreesoftware.com/post/au/automate/automate.jpg





RISK MITIGATION





Management – Leadership

balance • No change

70-90% management, 10-30% leadership

• Change 10-30% management, 70-90% leadership

Degre

e o

f chan

ge

Leadership skills

Professor John Kotter

Professor of Leadership,

Emeritus at the

Harvard Business School





Today Tomorrow Future Today Future Today Tomorrow Future

Manager Leader Entrepreneur





Next Framework

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Cycles Behaviour Culture

Capability Communication Values

Business Issues Individual Issues E

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Group Issues





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Manager Entrepreneur

Leader Entrepreneur

Entrepreneur

Manager Leader Leader

Entrepreneur Leader

Manager Leader Manger

Entrepreneur Manager

Next Framework: Your people




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Next Framework | Leader Types

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Next Framework: Your organisation




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Tomorrow’s successful insurer

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‘Challenge to Change’

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