emerging risks and disruptive trends in (global) supply ... · emerging risks and disruptive trends...

Emerging Risks and Disruptive

Trends in (Global) Supply Chain

Networks

Dipl.-Ing. Johannes Göllner, MSc

Head of the Section Knowledge Management

National Defence Academy,

Austrian Ministry of Defence and Sports

Strategic Foresight Analysis

Workshop-Helsinki officers’ club “Katajanokan Kasino”, Helsinki, Finland

21-22 October, 2015

Dr. Joachim Klerx

Senior Researcher

Innovation Systems Department

AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH

Presenter:

Agenda:

• Disruptive trends and emerging risks

• Threats and fear as driver for future conflicts– Future threats and developments in cyber security

– Environmental threats and risks, that might cause future conflicts

– Future public infrastructure and governance

• Global supply chain networks– information & communication networks,

– finance-networks, crypto-currencies,

– resource networks,

– Physical internet

• Capability development options possible options for solutions

Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks

Threats and fear as driver for future conflicts

Typical topics in future

threat discussions in

industrialized countries

Typical topics in future

threat discussions in non

industrialized countries

• Terrorist attacks

• Cyber attacks

• Espionage

• Organized crime

• Sound pollution

• Light pollution

• High tech threats

• CBRN

• Financial market instability

• New technology discussions

• Instability in resource markets

• Environmental damage

• High technology waste

• Climate threats

• Extreme weather

• Resources scarcity


Scanning the internet with the threat identification agent (TIA)

Source: EU-FP7-project: European Security Trends and Threats In Society (ETTIS), www.ettis-project.eu,

ending-date: 2014

http://www.ettis-project.eu/

Future threats and developments in cyber security

Right to be informed

Right to deleteProactive

protection

Clear identity rules Clear rules

for usage

AnonymityFreedom of speech

IPR for data

Cber Future

2030Geoshifts in cyber innovation, from industrialized countries to new economies

2040A new power on the horizon - Global virtual communities

2020Virtual currencies, infiltrated by organized crime

2035Intelligent sensors and tracking: finding anything, anywhere, anytime

2025New advanced persistent threats (APT) with intelligent autonomous bots, reconnaissance of future hybrid wars

Competition of large scale SIGINT systems

End of exponential increase of computing powerUbiquitous but filtered information

Increasing amount of mobile and embedded clients

Increasing asymmetric knowledge in cyber security

Factual unlimited storage in the cloud

Disru

ptive

Events

Trend

s

Prices explosion of Zero day exploits

A droid for all seasons

Dark-netsGlobal black hacker

industry

Insider attacks

Cyber warfare

Black markets for information

A society of surveillance

Network breakdown –accidental or

natural

Threats TrendsSocial Needs Weak Signals

Quantum computing

Magnonic Computing

Ultra-paranoid computing

Environmental threats and risks, that might cause future conflicts

Dead zones (Ocean)

Collapse of space waste

Water pollution and peak water

Surprising side effects of genetic

engineering

Environment Future

2030Protecting Air Quality: The Effects of Air Pollution in Developed and Developing Countries

2040Demographic developments are correlated to natural resources

2020Common standards for environmental protection

2035Sources of climate change are clear an supports a common strategy on climate protection

2025Saving Lives Through Disaster Prediction

Light pollution in industrialized countries

Globalization of food fraud

Plastic garbage patches in the ocean

Acidification of ocean

Deforestation, loss of biodiversity and desertification

Disru

ptive

Events

Trend

s

Bio-Breakout: A World Swept by

Pandemics

Agro-terrorism

Impact of a Cataclysmic Seismic Event


Land pollution with human wasteAir pollution without boarders

Noise pollution on land and sea

Eco-Terrorism

Genes from GMOs Proliferate in Nature

Nuclear material in food

Increasing amount of nuclear waste

Clean Nature

Future public infrastructure and governance

Globalized Migration: Complex Human

Transfers

Peer to peer nets against surveillance

Globalisatio and strategic sourcing

Future public infrastructure

2030Establishment of international armed forces to protect supply chain networks

2020New forms of supply chain networks and increasing interdependence between these networks

2035Conflicts about power and influence in the new supply chain networks

2025A new power on the horizon –Information management for supply chain networks

New players in the struggle about political influence

Disru

ptive

Events

Trend

s

Nuclear espionage of non state actorsThe shape of Islam in

the 21st century

Uncontrolled release of

nuclear waste Dirty Bombs and CBRN terrorism


The Risks of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism

Declining recruitment rates of armed forces

Epistemic networks in organized crime

Increasing power of transnational

corporations

Globalization of criminal networks

Digitalization with increasing speed

Globalization and strategic sourcing

Political and commercial

disinformation

Democracy and terrorism


Supply Chain Security:

(FOCUS: Foresight Security Scenarios: Mapping Research to a

Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles, EU-FP 7

programe)

The “threat side of the Supply chain security equation” –

including exogenous threats to EU - is not well covered in

the literature today.

Instead, most of the literature refers vaguely to “terrorism

threat” or “cargo crime” as main reasons behind Supply

chain security programs, standards and regulations. (see D5.1 www.focusproject.eu , page 99, point 8.3, Ending Date: 31/03/2013)


http://www.focusproject.eu/

ERM

IKT

PRODUCTION

FINANCE

HRM

R&Detc.

relation: Organisation – Supply Chain Networks – ORM, J.Goellner

META Supply Chain Networks ORM

- Supply Networks

- Basic Networks

- Govermental &

Public/Administration Networks

Meta Supply Chain ModelOrganisational Risk Management (ORM)


e.g.:

• Financial Networks

• Resource/Raw Material Networks (criticality)

• Food Supply Network

• Water Supply Network

• etc.


• Transport/Traffic-Networks

– (Air, Road, Railway, Water)

• ICT-Networks (+/-: Smart Grids)

• Energy Networks (+/-: Smart Grids)

Su

pp

ly N

etw

ork

sB

asic

Netw

ork

s

Govern

menta

l&

Public

-/A

dm

inis

tration N

etw

ork

s

Description of (Global) Supply Chain Networks:

J. Goellner, 2015

Source: WORLD MINING DATA 2015; Prof. Weber, Montan University Leoben

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Mineral Fuels Iron & Ferro Alloys Non Ferrous Ind. Min Precious Metals

World Mining Productionby groups of minerals

Without bauxite and construction materials

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

extrem unstable unstable fair stable

World Mining Productionby political stability of the producer countries

Without bauxite and construction materials

Source: WORLD MINING DATA 2015; Prof. Weber, Montan University Leoben

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1.00E+04 1.00E+05 1.00E+06 1.00E+07 1.00E+08 1.00E+09 1.00E+10

Mountain PassBayan Obo

Measured, indicated and inferred resources in metr. t

(L. WEBER & J. LIU, 2015)R

EE

gra

de

in %

REE-Resources by continents

Africa

Jongju

N-Korea

Oceania Asia Europe N-America S-America

Size in metr. t

m=2,908 Mio tm=1,595 Mio t (excl. Jongiu)

Distribution of global REE resources

by continents(incl. / excl. Jongiu)

Europe (17,6% ) 32,4% (!)

North-America (13,3% ) 24,4%

Africa ( 8,9% ) 16,7%

Asia (52,4%) 12,5% (!)

Oceania ( 6,0%) 11,0%

Latin America ( 1,6%) 3,0 %

13

Network Analysis of Banking &

Finance Networks

Source:

Crypto currencies as disruptive trend for international supply chain

networks


• Physical encapsulation– No direct "grab" the products

– Standardised encapsulation

– Analogy to the digital internet

• Digital encapsulation– Smart boxes/containers

• Interfaces for universal networking– PI-Container (FP 7-Project MODULUSHCA)

– PI-forklift, -conveyors, -warehouse

– PI-protocol for optimized universal networking


Physical Internet (PI):


Physical Internet: FP 7-Project MODULUSHCASupply Chain Application

New Concept for logistics operations:

http://www.modulushca.eu

http://www.modulushca.eu/

• Development of a monitoring solution:

– „Supply Chain Monitoring Solution“,

• e.g. in analogy to the first guideline of Working Group: Supply Chain Risk

Management of the Risk Management Association, Munich, Germany (2013-

2015) (https://www.rma-ev.org/Veroeffentlichung-zum-Download.696.0.html)

– „Strategic situation awareness center for permantly global analysis

of strategic resource/raw material-SRA“ (www.kiras.at, 2014-12/2015)

– „Strategic situation awareness center for permantly global analysis

of cyber security“,

• e.g. in analogy to the „Cyber Documentation and Research Center“, Dept.

of Central Documentation & Information, National Defence Academy of the

Austrian MoD, (10/2014-ongoing)


Capability development options:

https://www.rma-ev.org/Veroeffentlichung-zum-Download.696.0.html

http://www.kiras.at/

• Design or re-design the supply chain network stuctures

– Peer to Peer structure (decentralized) vs centralized managed

supply chain network,

• remark: but loss of state sovereignity because of increasing peer to peer

structure of supply chain network.

– How to protect and attack decentralized supply chain network?


Capability development options:

Thank you for your attention !


Johannes GOELLNER

Head of Section Knowledge Management

Dept. of Central Documentation & Information,

National Defense Academy,

Austrian Ministry of Defence and Sport

A-1070 Vienna, Stiftgasse 2a, Austria

mobil: +43-650-2252991

email: [email protected]

JOACHIM KLERX

Innovation Systems Department

Research, Technology & Innovation Policy

AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH

A-1220 Vienna, Donau-City-Straße 1, Austria

T +43(0) 50550-4546 | F +43(0) 50550-4599

email: [email protected]

http://www.ait.ac.at

For further information, question and specific interest,

please contact:


mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.ait.ac.at/

emerging risks and disruptive trends in (global) supply ... · emerging risks and disruptive trends...

Documents