emerging markets weekly economic briefing...economist: clare howarth, lead asia-pacific economist |...

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1 Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: [email protected] 24 Oct 2014 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Thailand – investor optimism at odds with fragile outlook The army takeover in May secured short-term stability for Thailand. It reinstated government spending and prompted a rebound in consumer confidence. At the same time financial markets have performed strongly and FDI flows have remained substantial. However, although some parts of the economy have picked up quickly, other areas have remained sluggish. The latter is in line with the fact that Thailand’s economic performance since the mid-2000s has been modest compared to its regional peers, with confidence in the future steadily undermined by political tensions. We expect Thai GDP growth to be under 4% a year in the medium term. Moreover, while there is little hope of a significant improvement in the political climate, the risk of a worse outturn is rising. There could, for example, be disagreement over succession to the throne – the ailing 86- year old King Bhumibol commands enough respect to hold potential rivalries at bay, but his death could lead to financial market turmoil, major capital outflows and hence a deep recession. The coup secured short-term stability… The army coup in May has allowed investment projects to be restarted and fiscal spending to resume. It has also ended the uncertainty about what may happen in the near future as the military government has said that elections will be held no earlier than late 2015, after new institutional and constitutional reforms have been introduced (no detail has been given on these yet). This has prompted a rebound in activity as households, firms and government agencies make up for the shortfall in spending induced by the political crisis between November 2013 and May 2014. Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.9% on the quarter in Q2 and we expect further rises of 1.3% and 1.7% in Q3 and Q4 respectively, offsetting the stagnation at the end of last year and the 1.9% plunge in Q1 2014. …boosting the stock market and FDI inflows The ending of the short-term uncertainty has led to a revival of consumer confidence and a fairly strong performance by Thai financial markets. Although the Thai stock market has dipped in recent weeks, in line with regional and global trends, it is 9% higher than before the 22 May coup and up on the levels of a year ago (before the latest crisis started). By contrast, many other Asian markets have weakened over the past five months. At the same time, FDI inflows have been quite substantial this year, despite the uncertainty: inflows were up almost 30% in the first seven months of 2014. 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Thailand: FDI and stockmarket strong in H1 '14 Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Stockmarket, Apr 75 = 100, RHS FDI inflows, US$, 12m total LHS But serious underlying problems persist… This seemingly relaxed attitude of investors seems puzzling for two key reasons. First, the underlying health

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Page 1: Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing...Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: chowarth@oxfordeconomics.com 1 24 Oct 2014 Emerging

1 Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: [email protected]

24 Oct 2014 Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Thailand – investor optimism at odds with fragile outlook The army takeover in May secured short-term stability for Thailand. It reinstated government

spending and prompted a rebound in consumer confidence. At the same time financial markets

have performed strongly and FDI flows have remained substantial. However, although some parts

of the economy have picked up quickly, other areas have remained sluggish. The latter is in line

with the fact that Thailand’s economic performance since the mid-2000s has been modest

compared to its regional peers, with confidence in the future steadily undermined by political

tensions. We expect Thai GDP growth to be under 4% a year in the medium term. Moreover, while

there is little hope of a significant improvement in the political climate, the risk of a worse outturn is

rising. There could, for example, be disagreement over succession to the throne – the ailing 86-

year old King Bhumibol commands enough respect to hold potential rivalries at bay, but his death

could lead to financial market turmoil, major capital outflows and hence a deep recession.

The coup secured short-term stability…

The army coup in May has allowed investment projects to be restarted and fiscal spending to resume. It has also ended the uncertainty about what may happen in the near future as the military government has said that elections will be held no earlier than late 2015, after new institutional and constitutional reforms have been introduced (no detail has been given on these yet). This has prompted a rebound in activity as households, firms and government agencies make up for the shortfall in spending induced by the political crisis between November 2013 and May 2014. Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.9% on the quarter in Q2 and we expect further rises of 1.3% and 1.7% in Q3 and Q4 respectively, offsetting the stagnation at the end of last year and the 1.9% plunge in Q1 2014.

…boosting the stock market and FDI inflows

The ending of the short-term uncertainty has led to a revival of consumer confidence and a fairly strong performance by Thai financial markets. Although the Thai stock market has dipped in recent weeks, in line with regional and global trends, it is 9% higher than before the 22 May coup and up on the levels of a year ago (before

the latest crisis started). By contrast, many other Asian markets have weakened over the past five months. At the same time, FDI inflows have been quite substantial this year, despite the uncertainty: inflows were up almost 30% in the first seven months of 2014.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Thailand: FDI and stockmarket strong in H1 '14

Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

Stockmarket, Apr 75 = 100, RHS

FDI inflows, US$, 12m total LHS

But serious underlying problems persist…

This seemingly relaxed attitude of investors seems puzzling for two key reasons. First, the underlying health

Page 2: Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing...Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: chowarth@oxfordeconomics.com 1 24 Oct 2014 Emerging

2 Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: [email protected]

24 Oct 2014 Emerging Markets

of the Thai economy looks very fragile. Even before the very weak growth performance this year, Thailand has been the most sluggish of the Asian emergers since 2006 (when the Thaksin government was overthrown). Second, the coup has not resolved the underlying deep divide in the country’s politics. As a result, a shock – such as the death of ailing 86-year old King Bhumibol and a disputed succession – could plunge Thailand back into crisis and deep recession.

…with patchy recovery since the coup

Although government spending is bouncing back and the new government has enthusiastically announced a number of stimulus measures, many other indicators suggest that large parts of the economy remained very weak in the June-August period. Private investment slipped throughout these months, while consumer spending has largely stagnated and the annual growth in tourism arrivals has yet to return to positive territory (-7% in September). Only August’s industrial output data, a rise of 3.8% on the month, showed some dynamism (but this is a volatile series).

Moreover, looking forward, even government spending may not rise particularly strongly as the new government has put several key projects on hold while their costs are reviewed – these include a 60bn baht expansion of Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok and a 350bn baht water management scheme.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2014 2015-18 average

Oct 12 forecastOct 13 forecastOct 14 forecast

Thailand: GDP growth% Annual Growth

Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

Growth performance has been undermined by poor politics since 2006…

Although the rebound in H2 2014 will be followed by a more modest rate of expansion through 2015, GDP growth is expected to average 4.3% next year. After that

we are now forecasting that growth will average just 3.9% between 2015 and 2018, whereas a year ago we were expecting 5.1% pa over this period. We believe that the lengthy period of political tension has undermined long-term confidence in the economy – making both consumers and businesses more cautious. The political problems in Thailand and the resulting less robust domestic market have probably reduced its attractiveness as a place to invest compared to neighbours such as Indonesia and Vietnam. In addition to the subdued domestic economic outlook over the next few years, the external trading environment is likely to be less dynamic in this period than might have been expected a few months ago – given the likelihood that Chinese growth will slow to significantly less than the current 7-7.5% pace.

Our caution on the Thai economic outlook is supported by the following:

It is worth remembering that activity was fairly subdued even before the turmoil erupted in November. Indeed Thailand grew by less than 3% year-on-year in both Q2 and Q3 2013, whereas Malaysia grew by close to 5% and Indonesia close to 6%.

In the 2014/15 World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness report, Thailand’s overall score was 4.7 (the maximum score is 7), down from 4.8 in 2006/07. Over the same period the Philippines and Indonesia both improved their scores by 0.4 points. It is likely Thailand would have made faster progress in key areas such as infrastructure, health and education had the political environment been more stable.

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

China

India

Vietnam

Indonesia

Singapore

Philippines

Malaysia

Thailand Five year average from 2014

Average from 2006-13

East Asia: GDP growth slowest in Thailand% Annual growth

Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

Page 3: Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing...Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: chowarth@oxfordeconomics.com 1 24 Oct 2014 Emerging

3 Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: [email protected]

24 Oct 2014 Emerging Markets

…leading to modest rise in living standards

In June the army announced a ‘Happiness’ campaign and organised free festivals across Bangkok to try and raise the collective mood. But this merely served to highlight the fact that since the intermittent political troubles began in 2006, living standards have improved at a much slower pace than in other countries in the region. From 2006, Thailand has experienced the slowest average growth in East Asia, even compared to much more developed Singapore. And we expect Thailand to continue to be the regional laggard.

Other forecasters have also downgraded Thai growth expectations, albeit less decisively than we have. For example, the IMF expects the country to grow an average 4.4% between 2015-18, down from 4.7% a year ago.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Jan 2006 = 100

Source: Haver Analytics

Emerging Asia: Stock markets

Indonesia

Philippines

Korea

ThailandMalaysia

Political situation could get much worse…

Another reason why investors might want to be cautious about Thailand is that the political situation could still deteriorate. Even if the military stick to their provisional timetable and elections are held in late 2015, it is difficult to see how Thailand will be any less polarised. And the delay over the announcement of any reform does not bode well for the prospects of the military government

trying to arrange a new institutional and constitutional framework that would start to heal the country’s deep political divide. Unless a spirit of political compromise can suddenly be found, the tensions will persist.

…driving the economy into deep recession Against this background, a sudden shock to the political system could push the country back into turmoil and ramp up the political and regional divides. The most obvious risk is the death of King Bhumibol, currently recovering in hospital after a gall bladder operation, and a dispute over the succession. His son and heir-apparent to the throne is Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, who has poor relations with the leadership of the military coup and the Democratic Party (and whose personal army is reported to be increasingly drawn from the Shinawatra heartlands). As a result, in the event of the king’s death, the military might impose a different monarch, which could push some to consider civil war. In such a situation, Thailand could be plunged into a recession much closer to the scale of the downturn it suffered in the Asian financial crisis of 1997/98 (the economy contracted by 10.5% in 1998) than the global financial crisis of 2008/09 (when Thai GDP fell 2.3% in 2009).

These risks are far from negligible and particularly relevant when considering the location of long-term investments. However, the exchange rate does at least have some protection from a sustained current account surplus in the medium term (which has been further bolstered by the sharp fall in oil prices since mid-year). But this would not be enough to cope with a shattering crisis that sparked huge capital outflows.

We are cautious about Thailand’s economic and financial outlook. Even if the political situation remains fairly calm, the country’s growth prospects look subdued compared with other countries in the region. In the event of a serious political, shock the country could quickly spiral into recession.

By Sarah Fowler ([email protected])

Page 4: Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing...Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: chowarth@oxfordeconomics.com 1 24 Oct 2014 Emerging

4 Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: [email protected]

24 Oct 2014 Emerging Markets

Latest data

Recent Data Releases

Previous month Latest Comment

China – Flash PMI (Oct)

– GDP (Q3)

– Industrial Output (Sep)

– Fixed Investment (Sep)

– Retail Sales (Sep)

– House prices (Sep)

50.2

7.5% y/y

6.9% y/y

16.5% y/y

11.9% y/y

0.5% y/y

50.4

7.3% y/y

8.0% y/y

16.1% y/y

11.6% y/y

-1.3% y/y

Official GDP growth for Q3 was close to the 2014 target rate of 7.5%, but a slowdown in the property market, together with slowing investment and retail sales growth, indicate that activity is cooling. House prices for China as a whole contracted y/y in September for the first time since November 2012. The flash PMI for October edged up a little but is still barely in expansionary territory.

Mexico – Unemployment Rate (Sep, s.adj)

4.8%

4.8%

Stronger domestic activity should start to push the unemployment rate down next year.

Korea – GDP (Q3, s.adj)

– Consumer spending

– Machinery investment

– Export Volumes – Import Volumes

0.5% q/q

3.5% y/y

1.5% y/y

7.6% y/y

3.6% y/y

2.8% y/y

0.9% q/q

3.2% y/y

1.5% y/y

4.0% y/y

2.1% y/y

2.5% y/y

GDP picked up in Q3, with private spending and construction boosted by a 11.7 trillion won stimulus package. Increased government spending over the next three years and loose monetary policy will support domestic activity, but the external outlook is challenging. Export volumes suffered the largest quarterly fall in Q3 since 2008, and weaker growth in China is likely to weigh on trade prospects across the region.

Poland – Industrial Output

(Sep, s. adj)

– Retail sales (Sep, constant prices, s. adj)

-1.1% m/m

0.8% y/y

1.4% m/m

3.7% y/y

1.0% m/m

1.9% y/y

-1.4% m/m

2.2% y/y

Industrial output and retail sales have stagnated, as exports have steadily weakened this year. The manufacturing sector is likely to remain under pressure.

Singapore – Industrial output ex biomed (Sep, s.adj)

4.4% m/m

3.4% y/y

1.2% m/m

-0.1% y/y

Although industrial activity fell in September, the pace of decline was less severe than the Q3 advance GDP estimate suggested. We expect Q3 GDP to be revised up.

Taiwan – Export Orders (Sep)

– Unemployment Rate (s.adj)

– Industrial Output (Sep, s. adj)

– Retail Sales (Sep)

5.2% y/y

3.9% (Aug)

1.3% m/m

8.0% y/y

4.5% y/y

12.7% y/y

3.9% (Sep)

0.6% m/m

8.8% y/y

4.4% y/y

Export orders picked up sharply, driven by the release of the iPhone 6, but there are concerns that orders will drop when this effect wears off. Unemployment has trended downwards in recent years, helping to support the consumer recovery.

S. Africa – Consumer Prices 6.4% y/y (Aug) 5.9% y/y (Sep) Inflation eased to within the 3-6% target range for the first time since March on lower food and fuel prices. But core inflation remains elevated. We therefore expect a further rate hike in November.

Page 5: Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing...Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: chowarth@oxfordeconomics.com 1 24 Oct 2014 Emerging

5 Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: [email protected]

24 Oct 2014 Emerging Markets

Events

Monetary policy meetings in past week

Key rate (now) Outcome Comment

Oct 23rd – Philippines 4.0% (Reverse repo rate)

Unchanged As expected, the Philippine central bank decided to keep the reverse repo rate at 4%. The interest paid on its Special Deposit Account (SDA) was also left unchanged at 2.5%. This brings to a temporary halt a tightening cycle that started in June and saw repeated increases in both rates. Inflation dropped from 4.9% y/y in August to 4.4% in September. However, the weaker peso is likely to push inflation higher in coming months and we expect another 25bp rate hike at the next meeting on 11 December.

Oct 23rd – Turkey 8.25% (1-week repo rate)

Unchanged The central bank left the interest rate on hold for a second successive month as expected. Inflation remained well above target at 8.9% y/y in September. However, we expect no further changes to monetary policy until much later in 2015, when inflation should have eased enough for the bank to consider reducing rates.

For further information contact Sarah Fowler ([email protected])

Page 6: Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing...Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: chowarth@oxfordeconomics.com 1 24 Oct 2014 Emerging

6 Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: [email protected]

24 Oct 2014 Emerging Markets

Asia

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% change on the month

Source: Haver Analytics

China: Price of new housing in Shanghai

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

% year

Source: Haver Analytics

China: Real GDP

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

% year

Industrial output

Source: Haver Analytics

China: Industrial output & retail sales volumes

Retail sales

3 month moving average

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

% year

China

Source: Haver Analytics

Korea producer prices

Asia: Manufacturing producer prices

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

% year

Source: Bank of Korea

Korea: Real GDP

Investment

GDP

Consumer spending

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

2011=100 (seasonally adjusted)

Source: Haver Analytics

Taiwan: Industrial output

Page 7: Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing...Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: chowarth@oxfordeconomics.com 1 24 Oct 2014 Emerging

7 Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: [email protected]

24 Oct 2014 Emerging Markets

Asia

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14

Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)

China

Source: Haver Analytics

Emergers: Exchange rates v US$

India

Indonesia

Korea

appreciation

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

% year

Source: Haver Analytics

Hong Kong: Employment

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Index (2011=100)

Source: Haver Analytics

Singapore: Manufacturing output

Output ex biomedical manufacturing

Total

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14

Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)

Malaysia

Source: Haver Analytics

Emergers: Exchange rates v US$

Thailand

PhilippinesSingapore

appreciation

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% year

Repo rate

Source: Oxford Economics

India: Interest rates and wholesale prices

Mumbai 3-month offered rate

Wholesale prices (WPI) inflation

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

% year

Exports

Source: India Ministry of Commerce

India: Exports & imports

3 month moving average

Imports

Page 8: Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing...Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: chowarth@oxfordeconomics.com 1 24 Oct 2014 Emerging

8 Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: [email protected]

24 Oct 2014 Emerging Markets

Latin America

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

% year (3 month moving average)

Source: Haver Analytics

Argentina: GDP proxy & industrial output

GDP proxy

Industrial output

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

2008=100 (seasonally adjusted)

Source: Haver Analytics

Mexico: Retail sales volumes

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% (seasonally adjusted)

Source: Haver Analytics

Latin America: Unemployment rate

Brazil (estimated)

Mexico

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

US$ bn (seasonally adjusted)

Source: Haver Analytics

Argentina: Exports and imports

Imports

Exports

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

% year

Target interest rate

Source: Haver Analytics

Chile: Inflation & monetary policy

CPI

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14

Index (Dec 30,2010 = 100)

Chile

Source: Haver Analytics

Emergers: Exchange rates v US$

Brazil

depreciation

Argentina

Mexico

Page 9: Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing...Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: chowarth@oxfordeconomics.com 1 24 Oct 2014 Emerging

9 Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: [email protected]

24 Oct 2014 Emerging Markets

Emerging Europe

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

% balance

Source: Haver Analytics

Czech: Industrial & consumer confidence

Consumer

Industrial

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Index (H1 2008 = 100)

Source: Haver Analytics

Central Europe: Industrial output

Hungary

Slovak

Czech

Poland

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

% year

Source: Haver Analytics

Russia: Wages, retail sales & capital spending

Retail sales

Capital spending

Real wages

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

2005=100 (seasonally adjusted)

Poland

Source: Haver Analytics / Oxford Economics

Central & East. Europe: Retail sales volumes

Hungary

Czech

Russia

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14

Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)

Source: Haver Analytics

Russia & Ukraine: Exchange rate v US$

depreciationHryvnia per US$

Ruble per US$

85

88

91

94

97

100

103

106

109

Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14

Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)

Source: Haver Analytics

Emergers: Exchange rates v Euro

Poland

Hungary

depreciation

Czech

Page 10: Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing...Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: chowarth@oxfordeconomics.com 1 24 Oct 2014 Emerging

10 Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: [email protected]

24 Oct 2014 Emerging Markets

Rest of World

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14

%

Source: Haver Analytics

Turkey: Interest rates

3-month interbank rate10-year bond yield

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%

Source: Haver Analytics

South Africa: Interest rates & inflation

CPI inflation

Repo interest rate

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14

Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)

Source: Haver Analytics

Emergers: Exchange rates

Turkey (v Euro)

depreciation

S. Africa (v US$)

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14

%

Poland

Source: Haver Analytics

Emergers: 10 year government bond yields

Brazil

South Africa

Turkey

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14

Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)

China

Source: Haver Analytics

Emergers: Equity markets

Brazil

Russia

India

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

US$bn (quarterly change in BIS reporting banks' assets)

Source: Haver Analytics

Bank lending to developing economies

Page 11: Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing...Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: chowarth@oxfordeconomics.com 1 24 Oct 2014 Emerging

11 Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: [email protected]

24 Oct 2014 Emerging Markets

China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland2013

Sep 10.2 2.7 -0.2 2.7 -1.5 1.3 6.4 -0.8 3.9

Oct 10.3 0.4 1.2 -1.2 0.3 1.0 1.9 0.5 4.5Nov 10.0 1.9 -0.6 -1.3 -1.0 2.8 4.8 0.4 7.4Dec 9.7 -2.8 1.1 0.1 -0.3 0.4 6.7 4.8 4.7

2014

Jan 8.6 -1.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 -0.2 6.5 1.2 6.3

Feb 8.6 1.2 -0.1 -2.0 0.4 2.1 3.9 4.0 5.6Mar 8.8 -1.0 2.8 -0.5 0.1 1.4 3.8 3.0 5.8

Apr 8.7 -2.3 2.5 3.7 2.1 2.4 4.4 5.5 5.1

May 8.8 -2.8 -0.7 5.6 2.3 2.8 4.0 6.1 2.6Jun 9.2 -7.5 1.9 3.9 1.8 0.4 2.0 7.4 2.3

Jul 9.0 -3.6 3.9 0.4 1.9 1.5 3.9 6.2 2.1

Aug 6.9 -3.1 -1.6 0.4 2.1 0.0 5.2 8.0 0.8

Sep 8.0 - - - - 2.8 - 8.8 1.9

Industrial ProductionPercentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwi se stated

China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland2013

Sep 3.1 5.9 1.0 9.8 3.4 6.1 7.9 0.8 1.0

Oct 3.2 5.8 0.9 10.2 3.4 6.3 7.7 0.6 0.8Nov 3.0 5.8 1.2 11.2 3.6 6.5 7.3 0.7 0.6Dec 2.5 5.9 1.1 9.9 4.0 6.5 7.4 0.3 0.7

2014

Jan 2.5 5.6 1.1 8.8 4.5 6.1 7.8 0.8 0.5

Feb 2.0 5.7 1.0 8.0 4.2 6.2 7.9 0.0 0.7Mar 2.4 6.2 1.3 8.3 3.8 6.9 8.4 1.6 0.7

Apr 1.8 6.3 1.5 8.6 3.5 7.3 9.4 1.7 0.3

May 2.5 6.4 1.7 8.3 3.5 7.6 9.7 1.6 0.2Jun 2.3 6.5 1.7 7.5 3.8 7.8 9.2 1.6 0.3

Jul 2.3 6.5 1.6 8.0 4.1 7.5 9.3 1.8 -0.2

Aug 2.0 6.5 1.4 7.7 4.1 7.6 9.5 2.1 -0.3

Sep 1.6 6.7 1.1 6.5 4.2 8.0 8.9 0.7 -0.3

Consumer pricesPercentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwi se stated

Page 12: Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing...Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: chowarth@oxfordeconomics.com 1 24 Oct 2014 Emerging

12 Economist: Clare Howarth, Lead Asia-Pacific Economist | Tel: +44 1865 268937 | e-mail: [email protected]

24 Oct 2014 Emerging Markets

China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland2013

Sep -0.5 4.3 -1.7 13.0 4.5 4.4 0.9 -7.0 14.1

Oct 5.6 4.9 7.2 14.3 4.5 -6.6 -5.3 0.7 9.8Nov 12.7 1.9 0.2 3.6 2.0 3.4 2.2 3.4 8.5Dec 4.1 5.6 6.9 3.7 1.2 2.7 4.9 1.2 16.7

2014

Jan 10.6 0.4 -0.2 4.0 2.8 2.1 7.6 -5.4 11.3

Feb -18.1 2.5 1.4 -5.7 4.4 -12.9 5.4 7.9 9.4Mar -6.6 -8.8 3.7 -0.7 1.6 5.8 12.7 1.9 16.6

Apr 0.9 -4.4 8.9 -3.3 5.9 7.2 6.7 6.2 10.5

May 7.0 -4.9 -1.5 4.9 7.0 7.6 2.6 1.4 15.5Jun 7.2 -3.2 2.5 9.6 5.1 -3.2 4.4 1.2 8.5

Jul 14.5 10.7 5.2 6.9 5.9 5.4 10.8 5.7 10.0

Aug 9.4 -4.5 -0.2 2.4 3.7 -3.7 -2.0 9.6 -1.7

Sep 15.3 -5.9 6.8 2.7 - - - 4.7 -

Exports (US dollars)Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwi se stated

China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland2013

Sep 7.6 8.1 -3.5 -18.5 2.8 4.9 -0.6 -0.7 9.3

Oct 7.6 14.6 5.1 -13.4 -0.2 -4.6 12.6 -2.9 9.1Nov 5.3 -7.5 -0.6 -16.5 -2.4 -2.6 6.2 -0.5 3.5Dec 8.5 3.9 3.0 -14.8 -1.0 2.0 12.5 10.0 5.3

2014

Jan 10.0 0.4 -1.2 -18.9 3.2 -3.4 2.5 -15.2 8.6

Feb 10.0 7.3 4.0 -17.9 1.6 -9.3 -5.7 4.9 9.1Mar -11.4 -8.6 3.5 0.8 1.7 -3.3 -3.2 7.4 10.9

Apr 0.8 -11.1 5.1 -13.8 3.2 -7.2 -9.2 5.8 14.7

May -1.6 -4.8 0.4 -10.7 5.3 -1.1 -2.9 -2.3 17.2Jun 5.5 -3.8 4.1 7.6 6.5 -5.5 -5.3 7.5 9.2

Jul -1.6 -5.5 5.8 4.5 4.3 -4.2 -2.6 9.5 8.6

Aug -2.4 -4.5 3.1 2.1 7.1 -11.5 -1.1 14.0 -1.1

Sep 7.0 9.0 8.0 26.0 - - - 0.2 -

Imports (US dollars)Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwi se stated