emerging markets and the changing global order: is there a new model of development?
DESCRIPTION
A new survey by Ipsos MORI for King's College International Development Institute of public attitudes in the emerging markets reveals that despite an economic downturn and political troubles, the USA is still considered the country to look to for the right ideas about the economy and jobs.TRANSCRIPT
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King’s International Development Institute and Ipsos MORI
Emerging Markets and the Changing Global
Order: Is There a New Model of Development?
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The survey
*Censors in China did allow two questions to be asked
• 11 ‘emerging markets’ covered: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey,
Saudi Arabia, Russia, India, China*, South Korea, Indonesia
• Using Ipsos’ Global @dvisor monthly survey - online panel: representative of more
affluent, connected population in these countries
• Only includes those aged 16-64, 6,000 interviews in total, fieldwork 1-15th Oct 2013
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Three key questions:
1. Which countries do
people look to as an
economic model?
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Which country or countries, if any, do you think have the right ideas about the
economy and jobs that your country's leaders should copy?
Who do citizens of these countries look to?
Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey
28%
26%
16%
9%
5%
5%
3%
2%
12%
8%
20%
0% 10% 20% 30%
US
China
EU
South Korea
Russia
Brazil
Turkey
India
Other
None
Don’t know
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Which country or countries, if any, do you think have the right ideas about the
economy and jobs that your country's leaders should copy?
The countries people look to fairly closely related to
per capita income – with one big exception…
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
UnitedStates
China EU SouthKorea
Russia Brazil Turkey India
% stating good ideas about the economy and jobs
GDP per capita ($, current prices, 2012)
Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey, IMF, Eurostat *N.B.: The authorities in China refused to allow this
question to be asked
Size and pace of change that
notice, not living standards?
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Which country or countries, if any, do you think have the right ideas about the
economy and jobs that your country's leaders should copy?
Wide variation between countries…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Overall SaudiArabia
Turkey Argentina Russia Indonesia SouthKorea
Brazil SouthAfrica
Mexico India
US China EU
Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey *N.B.: The authorities in China refused to allow this
question to be asked
Overall Saudi
Arabia
Brazil Turkey Indonesia Argentina Russia India South
Africa
Mexico South
Korea
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Which country or countries, if any, do you think have the right ideas about the
economy and jobs that your country's leaders should copy?
BRI publics don’t look to other BRIs for economic
ideas…
Brazil Russia India
Brazil - <1% 5%
Russia 6% - 11%
India 3% 1% -
China 27% 27% 32%
Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey
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Which country or countries, if any, do you think have the right ideas about the
economy and jobs that your country's leaders should copy?
Neighbourhood effects – people looking in their own
back yards
China – 49%
South Korea – 30%
US – 26%
Indonesia
Turkey – 22%
China – 20%
Others – 16%
Saudi Arabia
Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey
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2. Best job opportunities
for young people?
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Which country or countries, if any, do you think provide the best job
opportunities for young people today?
Clear US lead on job opportunities for young people;
EU and China in a close second and third
Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey
29%
18%
17%
10%
6%
6%
4%
4%
9%
7%
23%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
US
EU
China
South Korea
Brazil
India
Russia
Turkey
Other
None
Don’t know
16%
23%
N/A
10%
18%
10%
15%
15%
Youth unemp rate*
*Source: International Labour Organisation
(2011/12)
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Which country or countries, if any, do you think provide the best job
opportunities for young people today?
US lead strongest in India, Brazil, Mexico and South
Africa…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Overall SaudiArabia
Argentina Russia Indonesia SouthKorea
Turkey Brazil Mexico India SouthAfrica
US China EU
Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey *N.B.: The authorities in China refused to allow this
question to be asked
Overall Saudi
Arabia
Brazil Turkey Indonesia Argentina Russia India South
Africa
Mexico South
Korea
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13% 16%
24%
Which country or countries, if any, do you think provide the best job
opportunities for young people today?
Two significant differences when look across
demographic groups…
Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey
US: 29%
China:
17%
EU: 18%
Overall
32%
26% 24%
<35 35-49 50-64
Med Low High Med Low High
16% 19% 22%
<35 35-49 50-64
Med Low High
Age
Education
Age
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Which country or countries, if any, do you think provide the best job
opportunities for young people today?
Brazil and India look to themselves – Russia not so
much…
Brazil Russia India
Brazil 22% * 5%
Russia 4% 11% 7%
India 2% 2% 27%
China 20% 14% 22%
Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey
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3. Which countries will be
the leading economic
powers over the next 20
years?
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Which country or countries, if any, do you think will be the leading economic
powers of the world over the next 20 years?
China seen as the leading global power over the next
20 years – US widely mentioned, EU not
Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey
52%
30%
12%
11%
10%
9%
6%
4%
4%
2%
13%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
China
US
EU
Russia
India
South Korea
Brazil
Turkey
Other
None
Don’t know
Balance of
opinion very
similar to 2013
Pew study in
wider group of
countries
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Which country or countries, if any, do you think will be the leading economic
powers of the world over the next 20 years?
People are not far off from projections…
% Leading
economic
power
Real GDP ($trn)
2013 2033
China 52% $11.6 $35.3
US 30% $13.9 $21.6
EU 12% $13.6 $20.8
Russia 11% $2.2 $4.0
India 10% $4.3 $16.0
South
Korea 9% $1.4 $2.9
Brazil 6% $2.1 $4.3
Turkey 4% $1.0 $2.5
Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey, OECD
Note: GDP data is in 2005 US$ PPP volume terms
Note: Data for the EU excludes Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania
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Which country or countries, if any, do you think will be the leading economic
powers of the world over the next 20 years?
China the most mentioned in every country, variable
for US – uniformly low for EU…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Overall SaudiArabia
Argentina Turkey Brazil Indonesia Russia India China SouthKorea
Mexico SouthAfrica
US China EU
Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey
Overall Saudi
Arabia
Brazil Turkey Indonesia Argentina Russia India China South
Africa
Mexico South
Korea
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Which country or countries, if any, do you think will be the leading economic
powers of the world over the next 20 years?
Every BRIC country more likely to select own country
than US …
Brazil Russia India China
Brazil 25% 1% 3% 2%
Russia 8% 30% 8% 16%
India 6% 2% 41% 2%
China 39% 58% 42% 71%
US 24% 26% 37% 39%
Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey
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Overall…
• Clear messages in emerging/non-western country opinion –
although note “don’t knows”
• Not experts/decision-makers – but national moods/impressions
useful to understand
• China now nearly on par with US as a model to follow
• Although US still leads on job opportunities for young – and stronger
among young themselves
• Clear view of future – reflects likely outcome to an extent: G7
accounted for 50% of world GDP in 1995, will be 34% by 2018;
BRIC and TIMP up from 20% to 37%
• China’s prominence despite low GDP per capita: living standards not
top of mind?
• Little comfort for EU – more educated more positive (and South
Korea…), but not a positive image of future
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Bobby Duffy, MD Ipsos Social Research Institute,
Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King’s College London
@BobbyIpsosMORI
Thank you