emerging lifesciences m&a and fundraising trends · med tech ipo investors covet revenue growth...
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Emerging LifeSciencesM&A and Fundraising Trends May 17, 2019
Charles HamiltonDirector Med Tech Investment Banking
Piper Jaffray & Co., Member SIPC and NYSE
2PIPER JAFFRAY
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Historic Bull Market Continues
S&P 500 Best Performing Quarters Since 2000
S&P
500
# Quarter Return
1 Q3 2009 15.2%
2 Q4 2009 15.0%
3 Q3 2003 14.9%
4 Q1 2019 13.1%
5 Q2 2012 12.0%
61 Months Trough to Peak14% Annualized Return
122 Month Bull Run15% Annualized Return To Date
Q1‘19
Great Recession: Dec ‘07 to June ‘09
*Data through 5/16/2019
3PIPER JAFFRAY
Market Outperformed Despite Weak Earnings Season
*90% of companies reporting
Ea
rnin
gs R
ela
tive
to
Str
ee
t
Co
nse
nsu
s E
stim
ate
s (
%)
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019*
Above 75% 73% 74% 74% 77% 80% 78% 69% 77%
In-Range 7% 9% 8% 8% 6% 5% 8% 9% 6%
Below 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 15% 14% 22% 17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%100%
76%
5%
19%
4PIPER JAFFRAY
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
What’s Driving Performance?Accommodative Fed Policy Increased Equity Market Appeal
U.S
. 10
Year
Tre
asur
y R
ate
(%)
Fed Shift to Accommodative Policy
January 2019
S&P
500
Inde
x Va
lue
*Data through 5/16/2019
5PIPER JAFFRAY
–
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
2001: September 11th Attacks
2002: High-Profile Corporate Bankruptcies
2008: Global Financial Crisis
2010: May Flash Crash
Investors Cautiously Monitoring Volatility (i.e. the Fear Index)
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Fidelity Quarterly
VIX
Perf
orm
ance
2015: China RMB Devaluation
2016: Brexit
2011: U.S. Debt Downgrade
2016: U.S. Election
2018: February Market Correction
2018: December Market Correction
16.3
*Data through 5/16/2019
6PIPER JAFFRAY
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
Inverted Yield Curve Adds to Investor ConcernsNot Always an Immediate Precursor to Recession
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Fidelity Quarterly
His
toric
al Y
ield
Spr
ead
(10
Year
–3
Mon
th)
Recession
7PIPER JAFFRAY
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19
Healthcare Performing Well; Med Tech Leading The Way
Data as of 5/16/2019
8%
29%
6%
S&P 500
IHI Med Tech IndexBTK Biotechnology Index
8PIPER JAFFRAY
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
EV /
FTM
Rev
enue
1Attractive Valuations for Performing Growth Med Tech
1) Enterprise Value weighted index
High Growth Med Tech valuations are at peak levels
10-year Average:6.4x EV / FTM
Revenue
Low 2.9x – 12/2/2008
Multiples returned to “Pre-Lehman” levels
within 9 months
High Growth Med Tech
Current: 9.6x
Trading Summary1 Year Average (since 5/7/2018): 9.7x3 Year Average (since 5/7//2016): 8.4x5 Year Average (since 5/7/2014): 7.6x10 Year Average (since 5/7/2009): 6.4x
Data as of 5/13/2019
9PIPER JAFFRAY
2019 IPO Activity Remains StrongLife Sciences IPOs > $50M
Number of IPOs
Aggregate Capital Raised ($B)
$3.4
$5.9 $5.3
$2.1 $4.2
$8.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Annualized
36
65
45
2337
63
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Annualized
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Company filings
48
$6.0
2019 YTD Actual
20
2019 YTD Actual$2.25
10PIPER JAFFRAY
Life Science IPO Overview
Biotech IPO Frequency by Phase1 Medtech IPO Frequency by Revenue (LTM)1
8
1213
2
7
15
19
10
223
4
2
Preclinical Phase I Phase II Phase III Marketed
2017 2018 2019YTD
1 1
3
2
5
2
3
< $20M $20M - $40M $40M+
2017 2018 2019YTD
The Market is Shifting to Earlier Stage Companies
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Company filings1Includes IPOs with gross proceeds greater than $50 million
% IPOs Phase I or Earlier
2017 23%
2018 42%
2019 YTD 45%
% IPOs $20M or Less
2017 0%
2018 30%
2019 YTD 40%
11PIPER JAFFRAY
Med Tech IPO Investors Covet Revenue Growth
Screening Criteria: US Med Tech IPOs with >$20M revenue in year & IPO since 2015Note: NVRO, SWAV, TMDX all exceed 100% Forward year revenue growth; are factored into quadrant 4 medians
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
Forw
ard
Rev
enue
Gro
wth
@ P
ricin
g
Gross Margin @ Pricing
Median EV / FTM Revenue @ Pricing
Median Aftermarket Performance
(IPO to Current)
4.5x
+44%
3.1x
+28%
5.2x
+123%
4.1x
+140%Median Gross
Margin: 66%
Median Revenue
Growth: 31%
12PIPER JAFFRAY
53 52 54 56 58 62
27
64
8798
33 28
67
19
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019YTD
Med Tech
Biopharma
Life Sciences M&A Remains Active
Includes deals with disclosed transaction values >$20MSource: Pitchbook, Company filings
Med Tech $200 $219 $178 $258 $233 $202 $285Biotech $331 $500 $417 $639 $710 $452 $800
Median Transaction Value ($M):
Num
ber
of T
rans
actio
ns
Biopharma Deal Values Rising
(55 Deals / Year)
(62 Deals / Year)
13PIPER JAFFRAY
MedTech Respiratory Outperforming BioPharma
Data as of 5/13/2019
(4.1%)
38.5%
-35%
-15%
5%
25%
45%
65%
85%
Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19
MedTech Respiratory BioPharma Respiratory
MedTech Respiratory Index: ELMD, FPH, VMD, VAPO, RMD, INGN BioPharma Respiratory Index: KDMN, GLPG, FGEN, TBIO, PTI, VRTX
14PIPER JAFFRAY
Life Sciences Private Financing Trend Remains PositiveLife Sciences and MedTech continue to see increased private financing activity
Life Sciences US VC Activity (2009 – 2018) (1) Med Tech US VC Activity (2009 – 2018) (1)
$7.9 $7.8 $8.8 $8.7 $10.2
$12.3 $15.0
$12.6
$17.0
$23.7
873964
10441096
11661230
1298
1147
1310 1351
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
20092010
20112012
20132014
20152016
20172018
Series A & B ($) Total ($) Total Deals
$3.1 $3.2 $3.9 $3.7
$4.0
$4.8 $4.5
$3.6
$4.9
$6.0
455 479
563 572 580608 624
539
610 622
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
20092010
20112012
20132014
20152016
20172018
Series A & B ($) Total ($) Total Deals
(1) Source: Pitchbook; includes US deals only
($ in
Billi
ons)
($ in
Billi
ons)
15PIPER JAFFRAY
Areas to Watch in 2019
Distal Lung Access
Interventional Device Therapies
Targeted Immunotherapy
Digital Therapeutics
AI-enabled Diagnostics
Hospital-to-Home