emerging issues in food safety - webinar archive
TRANSCRIPT
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Emerging Issues in Food SafetyWhere will we be in 2020?
Serban Teodoresco
February 4, 2010
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Serban TeodorescoPresident, Preventa
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Ed LonerganPresident & CEO
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Agenda
Introduction
Objectives
Need
Process
Results
Q&A
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Panel
Bob GravaniCornell University
Bob GravaniCornell University
John LambThe World Bank
John LambThe World Bank
Dave EdwardsNSF - CMI
Dave EdwardsNSF - CMI
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Key Team Members
Catherine Francois
Charles Seaman
Consumer Goods Forum
Diversey
Jessica Wigram Consumer Goods Forum
Mike Thomas NSF-CMI
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Objectives
Provide the opportunity and framework to the largest possible number of experts to share ideas on emerging issues in Food Safety in 2020
Provide the opportunity and framework to the largest possible number of experts to share ideas on emerging issues in Food Safety in 2020
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Celebrate past achievements (GFSI 10 years) … perfect opportunity to look into the next 10 years Celebrate past achievements (GFSI 10 years) … perfect opportunity to look into the next 10 years
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The Need
HIGH RISK
HIGH IMPACT
INDUSTRY AT FULL CAPACITY(Avg. industry sectors at 60%-70%)
COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT
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The Process
““””
Underestimating the future is a time-honored tradition.
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The Process
ESTABLISH A FRAMEWORK (KEY DRIVERS)ESTABLISH A FRAMEWORK (KEY DRIVERS)
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SCENARIO PLANNINGSCENARIO PLANNING22
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The Framework (Key Drivers)
Environment Technology
Political &Economical
Industry Associations
Food SafetyFood Safety
Regulation
Socio-Cultural(consumers)
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The Survey
37 questions
9% response rate(3% -5% as benchmark for non incentivized surveys)
Sent to 3,900 people
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SURVEY RESULTS
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Demographics by Industry
Manufacturer – 25%
Consultant – 11%
Retailer – 24%
NGO – 8%
Certification Body– 16%
Accreditation Body – 5%
Government – 3%
Food Service – 4%
Academia – 4%
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Demographics by Job Position
Manager – 41%
CEO/Exec Level – 18%
Senior Executive – 32%
Other/Not Specified – 9%
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Demographics by Region
Western Europe – 41%
North America – 28%
Latin America – 4%
Eastern Europe –5%
Asia/Australia – 17%
Africa/Middle East – 5%
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SURVEY QUESTION #4What will be the top 3 Food Safety Issues in 2020?
1. Biological Risks / Microbial Safety
3. Contaminants / Chemical & Physical
2. Supply Chain
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SURVEY QUESTION #5Where will problems occur?
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SURVEY QUESTION #11Will food safety become integral to sustainability?
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SURVEY QUESTION #14Bar codes and RFID will enable food industry to collect extensive data.Sharing this information will reduce food safety incidents.
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SURVEY QUESTION #15Will consumers reject nanotechnologies and ask for regulations?
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SURVEY QUESTION #18Consumers will have full access to regulatory inspections / ratings.
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Question 27: How will consumers rank the following
SURVEY QUESTION #27How will consumers rank the following:
1. Food Safety
3. Health & Wellness
2. Food Prices
4. Environment
5. Food Security
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SURVEY QUESTION #28Resistance to pay premium for organic and fair trade.
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SURVEY QUESTION #29Food industry should pro-actively address obesity, nutrition, food security.
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SURVEY QUESTION #32Intentional incidents will have a bigger impact than unintentional.
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SURVEY QUESTION #34Availability and access to safe food will be a major political and economic threat to international security
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SURVEY QUESTION #35Increased competition for raw materials, supplies and market share will increase frequency of food fraud.
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Summary
Food Safety and Sustainability will merge.Food Safety and Sustainability will merge.11
Difficult to predict the impact of new technologies before they are tested in the market place.Difficult to predict the impact of new technologies before they are tested in the market place.
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Food Safety will remain the #1 concern for consumers. Food Safety will remain the #1 concern for consumers. 33
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Panel Perspective
Industry Perspective
Geographic Perspective
Job PositionPerspective
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Bob GravaniCornell University
Industry Perspective
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NY Yankees Baseball Hall of Fame catcher Yogi Berra once
said:
““””
It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the Future
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In 2020, I think the following three food safety issues will dominate the activities of the food
system throughout the world
Industry Sector Choice #1 Choice #2 Choice #3
Manufacturers Biological Risk Contaminants(Chem/Phys)
Supply Chain
Retailers Biological Risk Supply Chain Contaminants(Chem/Phys)
Government Biological Risk Supply Chain GFSI/Standards
NGOs Biological Risk Food Security Contaminants(Chem/Phys)
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QUESTION #5In 2020, where do you think food safety problems are MOST likely to occur?
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QUESTION #5In 2020, where do you think food safety problems are MOST likely to occur?
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QUESTION #32By 2020, bioterrorism (intentional incidents) will have a bigger impact on the food industry than unintentional food safety incidents.
The poisoner’s Handbook
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QUESTION #32By 2020, bio-terrorism (intentional incidents) will have a bigger impact on the food industry than unintentional food safety incidents.
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Take Home Messages
Build a culture of food safety in your organizationBuild a culture of food safety in your organization
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Supply chain management is key; build a partnership with your suppliers
Supply chain management is key; build a partnership with your suppliers
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Harmonization of standards, audits & auditor competence are essential
Harmonization of standards, audits & auditor competence are essential
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Strengthen GAPs, GMPs & HACCP Strengthen GAPs, GMPs & HACCP
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John LambThe World Bank
Geographic Perspective
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John E. Lamb, Agribusiness Team Leader,John E. Lamb, Agribusiness Team Leader,Agriculture and Rural Development DepartmentAgriculture and Rural Development Department
World Bank, Washington, DCWorld Bank, Washington, DC
Emerging Issues in Food Safety:Emerging Issues in Food Safety:A Geographic PerspectiveA Geographic Perspective
Global Food Safety Conference Consumer Goods Forum Global Food Safety Conference Consumer Goods Forum Washington DC – 4 February 2010Washington DC – 4 February 2010
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Why might geography matter?Why might geography matter? The nature, incidence and severity of food The nature, incidence and severity of food
safety challenges will be influenced by shifts safety challenges will be influenced by shifts in:in: DemographicsDemographics Economic growthEconomic growth InnovationInnovation Industry structure and conduct Industry structure and conduct Public policyPublic policy Resource constraintsResource constraints Climate changeClimate change
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DemographicsDemographics
Population—absolute population as starting Population—absolute population as starting point, then rate of changepoint, then rate of change
Geographic shifts—rural/urban breakdown, Geographic shifts—rural/urban breakdown, rate of urbanizationrate of urbanization
Ethnic composition--diversity Ethnic composition--diversity Age distribution—youth bulge vs. elderly, Age distribution—youth bulge vs. elderly,
economically active portioneconomically active portion
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Economic GrowthEconomic Growth Point of departure—size of overall and food Point of departure—size of overall and food
economyeconomy Rate of growth—per capita GDP, food consumption Rate of growth—per capita GDP, food consumption Structure of growth—goods vs services, role of Structure of growth—goods vs services, role of
agriculture, degree of concentrationagriculture, degree of concentration Disposable income—food share of household Disposable income—food share of household
budgetbudget Eating at home vs. awayEating at home vs. away Dietary upgrading—bulk vs packaged, starchy foods Dietary upgrading—bulk vs packaged, starchy foods
vs. proteins and produce, staples to snacks. shelf vs. proteins and produce, staples to snacks. shelf stable vs. freshstable vs. fresh
4444
InnovationInnovation Changes in productivity –e.g. high-yielding or Changes in productivity –e.g. high-yielding or
resistant varieties, changes in systems of production resistant varieties, changes in systems of production or processingor processing
New product developmentNew product development Value additionValue addition Transport, handling and distribution technologyTransport, handling and distribution technology IT advances IT advances Traceability systemsTraceability systems Adoption of GAP, GMP, GDP, GLP, HACCPAdoption of GAP, GMP, GDP, GLP, HACCP Detection methods for pathogens, Detection methods for pathogens,
adulterants, additivesadulterants, additives
4545
Industry Structure and ConductIndustry Structure and Conduct
Degree of concentrationDegree of concentration Procurement practicesProcurement practices Arms-length sourcingArms-length sourcing Length and complexity of supply chainsLength and complexity of supply chains Use of standards, certification, benchmarkingUse of standards, certification, benchmarking Interindustry collaborationInterindustry collaboration Private-public cooperationPrivate-public cooperation
4646
Public PolicyPublic Policy
Prioritization for public investment Prioritization for public investment Food safety philosophyFood safety philosophy Balance between technical analysis and Balance between technical analysis and
political economy considerationspolitical economy considerations Global versus sovereign viewpointGlobal versus sovereign viewpoint Regulatory approach chosenRegulatory approach chosen Public-private cooperationPublic-private cooperation
4747
Resource ConstraintsResource Constraints
Scarcity of productive landScarcity of productive land Soil degradationSoil degradation Water scarcity and qualityWater scarcity and quality Competition for scarce public and donor Competition for scarce public and donor
resourcesresources
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Climate ChangeClimate Change
Rise of global mean surface temperatureRise of global mean surface temperature Increased frequency and severity of extreme Increased frequency and severity of extreme
weather eventsweather events Nature of impactsNature of impacts Distribution of impactsDistribution of impacts Degree of resilienceDegree of resilience Adaptation measures Adaptation measures
4949
What can be said about geography What can be said about geography in the Survey Results?in the Survey Results?
There is no consistent pattern of responses There is no consistent pattern of responses associated with geography, howeverassociated with geography, however
There is an apparent consensus across There is an apparent consensus across regions and countries biological/microbial regions and countries biological/microbial hazards are the greatest concernhazards are the greatest concern
And that supply chain considerations such as And that supply chain considerations such as traceability and use of GFSI will continue to be traceability and use of GFSI will continue to be crucial crucial
..this is because…..this is because…
5050
The nature, incidence and severity of food The nature, incidence and severity of food safety challenges will be influenced by shifts in: safety challenges will be influenced by shifts in: (1) demographics; (2) economic growth; (3) (1) demographics; (2) economic growth; (3) innovation; (4) industry structure and conduct; innovation; (4) industry structure and conduct; (5) public policy; (6) resource constraints; and (5) public policy; (6) resource constraints; and (7) climate change(7) climate change
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These major influencing factors interact with each These major influencing factors interact with each other in complex ways, the relative importance of other in complex ways, the relative importance of each one will vary by context, and they will not each one will vary by context, and they will not respect borders, so it is not feasible to forecast their respect borders, so it is not feasible to forecast their relative importance without a complex modeling relative importance without a complex modeling exercise, that may exceed the bounds of available exercise, that may exceed the bounds of available data and understanding of causal linkages or even data and understanding of causal linkages or even correlationscorrelations
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Dave EdwardsNSF-CMI
Job Position Perspective
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Nanotechnologies are rapidly emerging as the “new” GMO and raising concerns with consumers. By 2020, consumers will reject the nanotechnologies and ask for strict regulations.
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Consumer Crisis Prediction Framework
Management Team
Surveillance
Prerequisites
Newsworthy
Plausibility
Ubiquitous*
Political
BLOCKERS
PUSHERS
Media Triggers
• Media Triggers– Conflict– Blame– Cover up– Human interest– High profile
organisations or personalities
– Signal value (what next?)
– Visual impact– Links to sex/crime
Consumer Reaction
• Fright Factors– Affects me– Unknown effects– Involuntary– New/novel– Inescapable– Manmade– Hidden and
irreversible– Children or
pregnant women (future generations)
Issue in technical area.
Not mediaSome media interest Major media attention Scare
‘trigger event’
Source: NSF International
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By 2020, in the retail and restaurant sectors, it will be the norm for consumers to have full access to regulatory inspection reports and customer ratings.
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Summary
48% of CEOs currently believe nanotechnologies will be a difficult “sell” to consumers… They are right.48% of CEOs currently believe nanotechnologies will be a difficult “sell” to consumers… They are right.
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If the industry believes there are benefits to be had then address the “fear factors” and be transparent and honest
If the industry believes there are benefits to be had then address the “fear factors” and be transparent and honest
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A freedom of information culture (regulatory) may well transfer to private standards by 2020.. Are you ready for that debate ?
A freedom of information culture (regulatory) may well transfer to private standards by 2020.. Are you ready for that debate ?
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QUESTIONS & ANSWERS