emerging issues for the p&c industry

4/9/2008

Emerging Issues for the P&C Emerging Issues for the P&C IndustryIndustry

AICP Heartland ChapterAICP Heartland ChapterEducation Day 2008Education Day 2008

Mark Smith CPCU, AIS, APIMark Smith CPCU, AIS, APIInsurance Services Office, Inc.Insurance Services Office, Inc.

4/9/2008

AgendaAgenda

• Studying Emerging IssuesStudying Emerging Issues• Climate Change: Insurance Climate Change: Insurance

ImplicationsImplications• Green Building ConstructionGreen Building Construction• Smart Cars/ Smarter RoadsSmart Cars/ Smarter Roads• Optional Federal Charter Optional Federal Charter • QuestionsQuestions

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Studying Emerging IssuesStudying Emerging Issues

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Why We Study Emerging Why We Study Emerging IssuesIssues

• Stay ahead of the gameStay ahead of the game• Improved awareness of hot topicsImproved awareness of hot topics• Potential insurance implicationsPotential insurance implications

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Where We Get Where We Get InformationInformation

• LitigationLitigation• Scientific studiesScientific studies• FuturistsFuturists• NewspapersNewspapers• Claims unitsClaims units• Management teamManagement team• PanelsPanels• Input from speechesInput from speeches

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Issues to Which We’ve Issues to Which We’ve RespondedResponded

• MoldMold• Welding RodsWelding Rods• Identity TheftIdentity Theft• Personal InjuryPersonal Injury• Virus/bacteria ExclusionVirus/bacteria Exclusion• Artificially Generated Artificially Generated

Electrical/Magnetic EnergyElectrical/Magnetic Energy

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Climate Change: Climate Change: Insurance ImplicationsInsurance Implications

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Global WarmingGlobal Warming

•Simplest termsSimplest terms: : increase in the increase in the average temperatures of the average temperatures of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans Earth's near-surface air and oceans and its projected continuation.and its projected continuation.

•Common usageCommon usage: "global warming" : "global warming" refers to the warming in recent decades refers to the warming in recent decades and implies a human influence. and implies a human influence.

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Global Warming –Global Warming –Greenhouse Gas EffectGreenhouse Gas Effect

• The ability of the atmosphere to capture The ability of the atmosphere to capture and recycle energy (heat) emitted by and recycle energy (heat) emitted by the Earth’s surface the Earth’s surface

• Greenhouse Gases - primarily water Greenhouse Gases - primarily water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane gas and vapor, carbon dioxide, methane gas and ozoneozone

• Increasing amounts of greenhouse Increasing amounts of greenhouse gases trap solar heat that would have gases trap solar heat that would have escaped the Earth’s atmosphereescaped the Earth’s atmosphere

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Intergovernmental Panel on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Climate Change (IPCC)

• In February, 2007 the UN panel studying In February, 2007 the UN panel studying climate change (IPCC) found:climate change (IPCC) found:– Warming of the climate system is unequivocal; Warming of the climate system is unequivocal; – Human activity has “very likely” been the driving Human activity has “very likely” been the driving

force in climate change over the last 50 years;force in climate change over the last 50 years;– The probability that warming is caused by natural The probability that warming is caused by natural

climatic processes alone is less than 5%; climatic processes alone is less than 5%; – World temperatures could rise by between 1.1 and World temperatures could rise by between 1.1 and

6.4 °C (2.0 and 11.5 °F) during the 21st century;6.4 °C (2.0 and 11.5 °F) during the 21st century;

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Intergovernmental Panel on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Climate Change (IPCC)

• Sea levels will probably rise by 18 to 59 cm Sea levels will probably rise by 18 to 59 cm (7.08 to 23.22 in) (7.08 to 23.22 in)

• There is a confidence level >90% that there There is a confidence level >90% that there will be more frequent warm spells, heat waves will be more frequent warm spells, heat waves and heavy rainfall. and heavy rainfall.

• There is a confidence level >66% that there There is a confidence level >66% that there will be an increase in droughts, tropical will be an increase in droughts, tropical cyclones and extreme high tides. cyclones and extreme high tides.

• Debate moving from whether humans are Debate moving from whether humans are warming the planet to what we can do about itwarming the planet to what we can do about it

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Catastrophic Effects of Catastrophic Effects of Global WarmingGlobal Warming

• Tropical storms stronger and last Tropical storms stronger and last longerlonger

• Increased occurrence of drought; Increased occurrence of drought; reduced water supplies; declining reduced water supplies; declining agricultural yields;agricultural yields;

• More flash floods; coastal inundation;More flash floods; coastal inundation;• More frequent heat waves- more More frequent heat waves- more

wildfires wildfires

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Risk Management Strategy: Risk Management Strategy:

P/C PerspectiveP/C Perspective

• 2005 Ceres Report: 2005 Ceres Report: www.ceres.orgwww.ceres.org– Climate changes will result in more Climate changes will result in more

claims/higher costs;claims/higher costs;– More political and financial burden on More political and financial burden on

governments to respond;governments to respond;

• 2005 CSPP Report: 2005 CSPP Report: www.scienceand policy.orgwww.scienceand policy.org– Ceres report flawed - science weakCeres report flawed - science weak

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NAIC Task ForceNAIC Task Force

• Dec. ’07 Draft White Paper:Dec. ’07 Draft White Paper:– Regulators must develop tools to evaluate Regulators must develop tools to evaluate climate change insurance risk;climate change insurance risk;– Disclosure is a primary tool;Disclosure is a primary tool;

• Feb. ’08 Draft Disclosure Proposal:Feb. ’08 Draft Disclosure Proposal:– Emissions Disclosure;Emissions Disclosure;– Strategic Analysis of Climate Risk;Strategic Analysis of Climate Risk;– Regulatory risk;Regulatory risk;– Physical RiskPhysical Risk

• Proposal still open for comment;Proposal still open for comment;

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Property and Liability Property and Liability ClaimsClaims

• Damage to property is the most obvious Damage to property is the most obvious and most widely discussed consequence and most widely discussed consequence of climate changeof climate change

• Emphasis is increasing on the potential Emphasis is increasing on the potential claims of 3rd parties who allege BI or PDclaims of 3rd parties who allege BI or PD

• Such BI and PD may allegedly be Such BI and PD may allegedly be caused by corporations or other caused by corporations or other emitters of greenhouse gasesemitters of greenhouse gases

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Potential 3Potential 3rdrd Party Liability Party Liability LitigationLitigation

• Question: Will emitters of Question: Will emitters of greenhouse gases be held liable greenhouse gases be held liable for the impacts to third parties for the impacts to third parties from their contribution to global from their contribution to global warming and climate change?warming and climate change?

• Will commercial liability insurers Will commercial liability insurers be required to defend their be required to defend their insureds against such suits? insureds against such suits?

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Insurer InvolvementInsurer Involvement

• Insurers insure carbon-intensive industriesInsurers insure carbon-intensive industries– Auto manufacturing, utilities and oil industriesAuto manufacturing, utilities and oil industries– Homes, autos and planesHomes, autos and planes

• All contribute to greenhouse gas All contribute to greenhouse gas emissionsemissions

• Even if suits are unsuccessful, defense Even if suits are unsuccessful, defense coverage is broad and defense costs are a coverage is broad and defense costs are a major concernmajor concern

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Greenhouse Gas as Greenhouse Gas as PollutantPollutant

• EPA has not regulated greenhouse EPA has not regulated greenhouse gas emissions – UNTIL NOWgas emissions – UNTIL NOW

• Recent Supreme Court decision Recent Supreme Court decision (Mass. v. EPA) may change EPA (Mass. v. EPA) may change EPA focusfocus

• Court found greenhouse gases are Court found greenhouse gases are within Clean Air Act’s definition of within Clean Air Act’s definition of pollutantspollutants

• EPA now has authority to regulate EPA now has authority to regulate greenhouse gases greenhouse gases

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CGL Policy AnalysisCGL Policy Analysis

• Definition ofDefinition of Occurrence: An accident, Occurrence: An accident, including continuous or repeated including continuous or repeated exposure to substantially the same exposure to substantially the same general harmful conditionsgeneral harmful conditions

• Do claims of damage from alleged global Do claims of damage from alleged global warming activity involve an “occurrence”? warming activity involve an “occurrence”?

• Indemnification will depend on facts Indemnification will depend on facts presented and established during presented and established during litigationlitigation

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CGL Policy Analysis CGL Policy Analysis (Cont’d)(Cont’d)

• Expected or intended exclusion: Did the Expected or intended exclusion: Did the policyholder expect or intend BI or PD policyholder expect or intend BI or PD through its emission of greenhouse gases?through its emission of greenhouse gases?

• Pollution Exclusion: Supreme Court’s Pollution Exclusion: Supreme Court’s decision that greenhouse gases are decision that greenhouse gases are pollutants could be beneficial to insurers pollutants could be beneficial to insurers

• Timing: Claims could extend back to before Timing: Claims could extend back to before pollution exclusions appeared in policiespollution exclusions appeared in policies

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P/C PerspectiveP/C Perspective

• Executives should assess current Executives should assess current and probable environmental risk and probable environmental risk exposureexposure

• Possible exclusion for climate Possible exclusion for climate change lawsuits from D&O policieschange lawsuits from D&O policies

• Business continuity planning as a Business continuity planning as a prerequisite for writing business prerequisite for writing business interruption coverageinterruption coverage

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Strategy: Property and Strategy: Property and Liability Perspective Liability Perspective (Cont’d)(Cont’d)

• Encourage “Green Building”:Encourage “Green Building”:– Provide coverage for rebuilding damaged Provide coverage for rebuilding damaged

property using “green” building practices property using “green” building practices – Provide credits for owners of such Provide credits for owners of such

buildingsbuildings• Warmer temperatures and more Warmer temperatures and more

moisture moisture increased mold increased mold• Brown outs/grid failures/heat waves Brown outs/grid failures/heat waves

health concernshealth concerns

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Strategy: Property and Strategy: Property and Liability Perspective Liability Perspective (Cont’d)(Cont’d)

• Pay-as-you-drive insurance or Pay-as-you-drive insurance or mileage-based discountsmileage-based discounts

• Discounts for hybrid carsDiscounts for hybrid cars• Solar power: coverage for Solar power: coverage for

homeowners who generate their homeowners who generate their own powerown power

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Global WarmingGlobal Warming

• http://globalwarming.org/http://globalwarming.org/

• http://pewclimate.comhttp://pewclimate.com

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Green Building Green Building ConstructionConstruction

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Green BuildingsGreen Buildings

• Historically, green building efforts had Historically, green building efforts had not achieved broad market acceptancenot achieved broad market acceptance

• US Green Building Council’s Leadership US Green Building Council’s Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Green Building Rating System(LEED) Green Building Rating System

• Many federal and state buildings must Many federal and state buildings must meet LEED requirementsmeet LEED requirements

• Increasing support from large citiesIncreasing support from large cities• LEED is the relied upon rating system LEED is the relied upon rating system

for green buildingsfor green buildings

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LEED Rating SystemLEED Rating System

• Building can be rated as Platinum, Gold, Building can be rated as Platinum, Gold, Silver or CertifiedSilver or Certified

• Rating based on the number of points Rating based on the number of points achieved according to a checklistachieved according to a checklist

• Applicable to:Applicable to:– New constructionNew construction– Existing buildingsExisting buildings– Commercial interiorsCommercial interiors– Core and shell developmentCore and shell development– Residential constructionResidential construction

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LEED CriteriaLEED Criteria

• Takes into account:Takes into account:– Sustainable sitesSustainable sites– Water efficiencyWater efficiency– Energy and atmosphereEnergy and atmosphere– Materials and resourcesMaterials and resources– Indoor environmental qualityIndoor environmental quality– Innovation and designInnovation and design

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Green Building Green Building RequirementsRequirements

• Washington: In 2005, became the first Washington: In 2005, became the first state to enact green building legislation state to enact green building legislation

• Boston: Zoning Commission approved Boston: Zoning Commission approved amendments to zoning code requiring amendments to zoning code requiring buildings over 50,000 sq feet to be buildings over 50,000 sq feet to be certifiablecertifiable

• District of Columbia: Green Building Act District of Columbia: Green Building Act of 2006 - private non-residential of 2006 - private non-residential construction projects of 50,000 sf or construction projects of 50,000 sf or more.more.

• 6 states: AR-CT-LA-MD-NV-WA have 6 states: AR-CT-LA-MD-NV-WA have green bldg. mandate for govt. projectsgreen bldg. mandate for govt. projects

• Kansas City: Kansas City: www.usqbckansascity.orgwww.usqbckansascity.org

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Reduced Loss ExposureReduced Loss Exposure

• Energy-efficient light: less heat Energy-efficient light: less heat and reduced fire hazardand reduced fire hazard

• Cement panels: reduce wood Cement panels: reduce wood content -more resistant to mold, content -more resistant to mold, wind, EQ, firewind, EQ, fire

• Energy-efficient windows: resist Energy-efficient windows: resist shattering from heat and resist shattering from heat and resist breakage by thievesbreakage by thieves

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Reduced Loss Exposure Reduced Loss Exposure (Cont’d)(Cont’d)

• Grid-independent solar power systems: Grid-independent solar power systems: limit business interruptionslimit business interruptions

• High-efficiency/dry fixtures (i.e. High-efficiency/dry fixtures (i.e. compost toilets and occupant sensors) compost toilets and occupant sensors) reduce sewer back-ups/burst pipesreduce sewer back-ups/burst pipes

• Increase reflectivity of rooftops-lower Increase reflectivity of rooftops-lower bldg. temperatures (reduce fire loss) bldg. temperatures (reduce fire loss)

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Insurance Implications Insurance Implications IncentivesIncentives

• Potential for insurance creditsPotential for insurance credits• Optional coverage for upgrades to Optional coverage for upgrades to

meet requirements:meet requirements:– Ordinance or law coverageOrdinance or law coverage– Increased cost of construction Increased cost of construction

additional coverageadditional coverage

• Industry ProgramsIndustry Programs

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Insurance Implications - Insurance Implications - CostsCosts

• Architect’s and design Architect’s and design professionals- increased exposure?professionals- increased exposure?

• Increased cost of green building Increased cost of green building practices practices

• Damage to solar panels: increased Damage to solar panels: increased replacement costs; freezing and replacement costs; freezing and leakage perilsleakage perils

• Impact on performance bond Impact on performance bond marketmarket

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Smart Cars – Smarter RoadsSmart Cars – Smarter Roads

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Basics of Smart Cars and Basics of Smart Cars and RoadsRoads

• Purpose is to prevent accidents Purpose is to prevent accidents and ease traffic congestion and ease traffic congestion

• While cars would begin to have While cars would begin to have these features, a full system, these features, a full system, including intelligent roads, would including intelligent roads, would most likely not appear until the most likely not appear until the 2010’s2010’s

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Four CategoriesFour Categories

• Driver Related:Driver Related:– Alarms for “lane drift”Alarms for “lane drift”– Blind spot monitorsBlind spot monitors– Night visionNight vision– In-car breathalyzers In-car breathalyzers

• Vehicle Related:Vehicle Related:– RFIDs embedded in roadsRFIDs embedded in roads– Traffic lights that transmit information about Traffic lights that transmit information about

statusstatus– Cars “talking” to each other (safe breaking Cars “talking” to each other (safe breaking

distances, in your blind spot) distances, in your blind spot) – GPS information about traffic patterns up aheadGPS information about traffic patterns up ahead

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Four Categories (Cont’d)Four Categories (Cont’d)

• RecordersRecorders– EDRs record information at the time of an EDRs record information at the time of an

incidentincident– VDRs (commercial applications) record or VDRs (commercial applications) record or

transmit information about vehicle and transmit information about vehicle and driverdriver•Number of hours driving without a breakNumber of hours driving without a break•Use or condition of vehicle equipment Use or condition of vehicle equipment

(such as a cement drum turning)(such as a cement drum turning)– TEEN BLACK BOXTEEN BLACK BOX

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Four Categories (Cont’d)Four Categories (Cont’d)

• Law EnforcementLaw Enforcement– Signs that transmit speed limitSigns that transmit speed limit– Driver’s license standardsDriver’s license standards– The DNA traffic stopThe DNA traffic stop– Tolls, meter and road tax collectionTolls, meter and road tax collection

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EquipmentEquipment

• Cars and roads equipped with computers, cameras, Cars and roads equipped with computers, cameras, GPS and transmitters form communicationGPS and transmitters form communication

• Cameras would identify intersections, stop signs and Cameras would identify intersections, stop signs and stop linesstop lines

• Communications would include location of vehicles Communications would include location of vehicles and their rate of travel to avoid collisionsand their rate of travel to avoid collisions

• The on-board computers would determine if a The on-board computers would determine if a vehicle is stopped ahead or blocking an intersectionvehicle is stopped ahead or blocking an intersection

• Brake and steering assistance would be providedBrake and steering assistance would be provided

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The Little Black BoxThe Little Black Box

• First EDRs 1974 (NHTSA); all GM and Ford First EDRs 1974 (NHTSA); all GM and Ford models today (over 40 million vehicles)models today (over 40 million vehicles)

• Typically records air bag, seatbelt and brake Typically records air bag, seatbelt and brake status, speed of vehicle and engine, throttle status, speed of vehicle and engine, throttle position and velocity changeposition and velocity change

• 10 milliseconds increments for 5 seconds10 milliseconds increments for 5 seconds• In collision, if bag deployed, data stored In collision, if bag deployed, data stored

indefinitely; if not, stored for 250 startsindefinitely; if not, stored for 250 starts• Automatic transmission to call center with Automatic transmission to call center with

GPS coordinatesGPS coordinates

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New NHTSA RegulationNew NHTSA Regulation• Takes effect with 2011 modelsTakes effect with 2011 models• Requires EDRs in vehicles with a GVW of 8,500 Requires EDRs in vehicles with a GVW of 8,500

pounds or less to record 15 essential data elements pounds or less to record 15 essential data elements and up to 30 additional elementsand up to 30 additional elements

• Institutes uniform requirements for the accuracy, Institutes uniform requirements for the accuracy, collection, storage, survivability and retrieval of collection, storage, survivability and retrieval of motor vehicle crash event datamotor vehicle crash event data

• Standardizes the dataStandardizes the data• Requires manufacturers to make a retrieval tool Requires manufacturers to make a retrieval tool

commercially availablecommercially available• Requires manufacturers to include standard Requires manufacturers to include standard

disclosuredisclosure

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Driver’s License Driver’s License StandardsStandards

• The Real ID Act established standards for The Real ID Act established standards for driver’s licensesdriver’s licenses– Documents required to obtain licenseDocuments required to obtain license– Verification proceduresVerification procedures– Information (full legal name, principal Information (full legal name, principal

residence)residence)– Security against forgerySecurity against forgery– Machine readable, including facial-recognition Machine readable, including facial-recognition

technology pictures technology pictures • Effective 5/11/08; option to 12/31/09Effective 5/11/08; option to 12/31/09• States can opt out, but their licenses wouldStates can opt out, but their licenses would

be useless for federal purposesbe useless for federal purposes

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Driver’s License Driver’s License Standards Standards (Cont’d)(Cont’d)

• States must link their record-keeping States must link their record-keeping systems to national databasessystems to national databases

• States must mine multiple databases to States must mine multiple databases to check the accuracy of supporting check the accuracy of supporting documentsdocuments

• Requires proof of legal residency – run Requires proof of legal residency – run the application through SAVE (a federal the application through SAVE (a federal database to prevent illegal immigrants database to prevent illegal immigrants from receiving federal benefits)from receiving federal benefits)

• Background check on motor-vehicle Background check on motor-vehicle employeesemployees

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ConcernsConcerns

• Humans react better than computersHumans react better than computers• EDR and VDR information could one EDR and VDR information could one

day become the DNA of an day become the DNA of an automobileautomobile

• Accidents will be less frequent, but Accidents will be less frequent, but likely more severe, because the likely more severe, because the increased cost of vehicles will mean increased cost of vehicles will mean they will be more expensive to repair they will be more expensive to repair when the car incurs damagewhen the car incurs damage

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Some Car Rental Some Car Rental ContractsContracts• Make insurance coverage invalid if Make insurance coverage invalid if

the renter the renter – breaks the law breaks the law – drives outside agreed rental area drives outside agreed rental area

• Could increase carriers’ exposure Could increase carriers’ exposure even when renter takes out even when renter takes out additional damage waiversadditional damage waivers

• Charge for excess wear and tear on Charge for excess wear and tear on car from speeding, off-road usecar from speeding, off-road use

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Personal PrivacyPersonal Privacy

• EDR and VDR data has already been EDR and VDR data has already been used in civil and criminal highway-used in civil and criminal highway-accident casesaccident cases

• Some states already have lawsSome states already have laws– regulating the ownership and use of EDR regulating the ownership and use of EDR

datadata– that insurers cannot put wording in the that insurers cannot put wording in the

cooperation clause requiring insureds to cooperation clause requiring insureds to provide EDR infoprovide EDR info

• Cameras to watch your teenage Cameras to watch your teenage driverdriver

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Auto HackersAuto Hackers

• Hackers are starting to target Hackers are starting to target autos with on-board computer autos with on-board computer systemssystems

• Possibilities include unlocking Possibilities include unlocking doors and disabling the cardoors and disabling the car

• It’s also possible to replace OEM It’s also possible to replace OEM processors with processors that processors with processors that enhance performanceenhance performance

4/9/2008

Underwriting ImplicationsUnderwriting Implications• Vehicle equipment/technology could become Vehicle equipment/technology could become

more important in underwriting and ratingmore important in underwriting and rating• Insurers may need to consider driver’s Insurers may need to consider driver’s

“techie” skills“techie” skills• New vehicle equipment will impact pricingNew vehicle equipment will impact pricing• Identifying vehicle features difficult if not VIN Identifying vehicle features difficult if not VIN

codedcoded• Territories may need to consider existence of Territories may need to consider existence of

“smart roads” “smart roads” • Endorsement for policy – credit to voluntarily Endorsement for policy – credit to voluntarily

provide EDR information to insurer in case of provide EDR information to insurer in case of an accidentan accident

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Challenges to Underwriting Challenges to Underwriting and Rating Criteriaand Rating Criteria• The basis of the insurance mechanism is The basis of the insurance mechanism is

to be able to fairly distinguish among to be able to fairly distinguish among classes of risk for purposes of applying classes of risk for purposes of applying proper coverage provisions and obtaining proper coverage provisions and obtaining adequate premiumadequate premium

• The industry has been accused of The industry has been accused of discrimination at times for some of its discrimination at times for some of its practicespractices

• It is possible that these accusations will It is possible that these accusations will increase in the futureincrease in the future

• Should we be investigating alternative Should we be investigating alternative methods for categorizing degree of risk?methods for categorizing degree of risk?

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Optional Federal CharterOptional Federal Charter

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• Bush DOT “Blueprint for a Bush DOT “Blueprint for a Modernized Financial Regulatory Modernized Financial Regulatory Structure”Structure”

• Recommends establishing an Recommends establishing an Optional Federal Charter for Optional Federal Charter for insurers, reinsurers and producersinsurers, reinsurers and producers

• One of the “intermediate” goalsOne of the “intermediate” goals

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• Sets up Office of National InsuranceSets up Office of National Insurance• States would not have jurisdiction over States would not have jurisdiction over

OFC insurersOFC insurers• OFC insurers could still be subject to

some state laws, such as:– state tax laws,– compulsory auto and workers’ comp;– participation in residual markets;– participation in guarantee funds.

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• OFC “principles based” regulatory OFC “principles based” regulatory concepts:concepts:– Ensure safety and soundness of markets;– Enhance competition in markets;– Increase market efficiency, including:

• elimination of price controls;• promote more rapid technological change;• encourage product innovation; • reduce regulatory costs;

– Provide consumer protection

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• Office of Insurance Oversight:Office of Insurance Oversight:– exercise newly granted statutory

authority to address international regulatory issues, such as reinsurance collateral;

– serve as an advisor to the Secretary of the Treasury on major domestic and international policy issues.

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Full “Blueprint” available at:Full “Blueprint” available at:

http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/reports/Blueprint.pdf

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QUESTIONS????QUESTIONS????

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Emerging Issues in Insurance Emerging Issues in Insurance CoverageCoverage

Mark SmithMark SmithISO, 545 Washington Blvd, Jersey City, NJ ISO, 545 Washington Blvd, Jersey City, NJ

0731007310201-469-2642 201-469-2642

[email protected]@iso.comNo part of this presentation may be copied or redistributed without the prior written consent of ISO. This material was used exclusively as an exhibit to an oral presentation. It may not be, nor should it be relied upon as reflecting, a complete record of the discussion.