emerging economies - chinadocentes.fe.unl.pt/~jamador/sepe_pt/lm_uk.pdf · china 5th exporter and...

Emerging Economies

- China -- China -

Luís Monteiro, April 2012

Agenda

1. Emerging Economies

1.1 Introduction

1.2 Long Term Projections

2. China2. China

2.1 Challenges to World Balance

2.2 Opportunities

3. Developed Economies

3.1 What to do?

World Top 30 Economies - 2010

GDP 2010 Nominal Value

(million €)

GDP 2010 Nominal Value

(% world)

GDP 2010 PPP Value (million €)

GDP 2010 PPP Value (% world)

1. EUA 11 275 200 23,3 1. EUA 11 275 000 19,7

2. China 4 522 000 9,3 2. China 7 758 000 13,6

3. Japão 4 199 000 8,7 3. Japão 3 315 000 5,8

4. Alemanha 2 550 000 5,3 4. Índia 3 123 000 5,5

5. França 1 987 000 4,1 5. Alemanha 2 262 000 4,0

6. Reino Unido 1 729 000 3,6 6. Rússia 1 710 000 3,0

7. Brasil 1 608 000 3,3 7. Reino Unido 1 671 000 2,9

8. Itália 1 581 000 3,3 8. Brasil 1 670 000 2,9

9. Canadá 1 211 000 2,5 9. França 1 650 000 2,9

10. Índia 1 183 000 2,4 10. Itália 1 364 000 2,4

11. Rússia 1 127 000 2,3 11. México 1 254 000 2,2

12. Espanha 1 085 000 2,2 12. Coreia do Sul 1 122 000 2,0

13. Austrália 950 000 2,0 13. Espanha 1 053 000 1,8

14. México 799 000 1,7 14. Canadá 1 023 000 1,8

Emerging Economies

• GDP growth rate ≥ 5% (in developed economies ≈ 1 to 3% )

• some became developed: Taiwan, South Korea,…

• some already have high R&D: Russia,…

• important exporters

Emerging Economies - China Luís Monteiro, April 2012

(IMF, 2011)

15. Coreia do Sul 775 000 1,6 15. Indonésia 792 000 1,4

16. Holanda 603 000 1,2 16. Turquia 738 855 1,3

17. Turquia 571 000 1,2 17. Austrália 678 740 1,2

18. Indonésia 544 000 1,1 18. Taiwan 632 139 1,1

19. Suíça 403 000 0,8 19. Irão 629 733 1,1

20. Polónia 360 000 0,7 20. Polónia 554 861 1,0

21 .Bélgica 358 000 0,7 21. Holanda 520 769 0,9

22. Suécia 351 000 0,7 22. Argentina 486 325 0,9

23. Arábia Saudita 341 000 0,7 23. Arábia Saudita 476 789 0,8

24. Taiwan 331 000 0,1 24. Tailândia 449 822 0,8

25. Noruega 319 000 0,7 25. África do Sul 403 339 0,7

26. Áustria 289 878 0,6 26. Egipto 383 212 0,7

27. Argentina 284 822 0,6 27. Paquistão 357 470 0,6

28. África do Sul 274 815 0,6 28. Colômbia 330 666 0,6

29. Irão 274 785 0,6 29. Malásia 317 155 0,6

30. Tailândia 245 269 0,5 30. Bélgica 302 202 0,5

38. Portugal 176 000 0,4 48. Portugal 189 000 0,3

• important exporters

• specific advantages (commodities, low salaries,…)

Emerging Economies – 5 types

Produce and export High Technology Products, but don´t design them (Malaysia,

Thailand, Philippines, Singapore, ….)

Export Commodities or Products produced with High Scale/High Intensity of Commodities (Chile, Argentina, Brazil,…)

Specialized in Products based between those with an High Scale of Production and those with High Technology, or between those with an High Scale of Production and those with High Intensity of Commodities (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia,….)


High Intensity of Commodities (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia,….)

Specialized in Intensive Work and Commodities (Pakistan, Turkey, North Africa, Romania, Bulgaria, …)

Specialized in Intensive Work and Medium/High Tecnology

(China, India, …)

This is quickly changing (Vietnam with robot Tosy Topio 3.0,…)

World Change

IBSA ( Índia, Brasil, África do Sul)


(BCG, 2009)

IBSA ( Índia, Brasil, África do Sul)

Fall of Soviet Union 1991

Growing Globalisation of Trade (Uruguay Round 1994, WTO > 1995)

Growing Foreign Direct Investments (FDI)

Rapid Industrialisation of Emerging Countries

World Trade of Goods 2009Exportadores Valor Quota (%) Variação (%) Importadores Valor Quota (%) Variação (%)

1 China 1 202 9,6 -16 1 United States 1 605 12,7 -262 Germany 1 126 9,0 -22 2 China 1 006 7,9 -113 United States 1 056 8,5 -18 3 Germany 938 7,4 -214 Japan 581 4,6 -26 4 France 560 4,4 -225 Netherlands 498 4,0 -22 5 Japan 552 4,4 -286 France 485 3,9 -21 6 United Kingdom 482 3,8 -247 Italy 406 3,2 -25 7 Netherlands 445 3,5 -238 Belgium 370 3,0 -22 8 Italy 413 3,3 -279 South Korea 364 2,9 -14 9 Hong Kong 352 2,8 -1010 United Kingdom 352 2,8 -23 retained imports 91 0,7 -811 Hong Kong 329 2,6 -11 10 Belgium 352 2,8 -25

domestic exports 17 0,1 -1 11 Canada 330 2,6 -2112 Canada 317 2,5 -31 12 South Korea 323 2,5 -2613 Russia 303 2,4 -36 13 Spain 288 2,3 -3214 Singapore 270 2,2 -20 14 India 250 2,0 -22

domestic exports 138 1,1 -21 15 Singapore 246 1,9 -2315 Mexico 230 1,8 -21 retained imports 114 0,9 -2816 Spain 219 1,7 -22 16 Mexico 242 1,9 -2417 Taiwan 204 1,6 -20 17 Russia 192 1,5 -3418 Saudi Arabia 192 1,5 -39 18 Taiwan 174 1,4 -2719 United Arab Emirates 175 1,4 -27 19 Australia 165 1,3 -1720 Switzerland 173 1,4 -14 20 Switzerland 156 1,2 -1521 India 163 1,3 -17 21 Poland 147 1,2 -3022 Malaysia 157 1,3 -21 22 Austria 143 1,1 -22

China 1st exporter and 2nd importer (“Factory of the World”)

South Korea 9th exporter and 12th importer

Hong-Kong and Singapore are


22 Malaysia 157 1,3 -21 22 Austria 143 1,1 -2223 Australia 154 1,2 -18 23 Turkey 141 1,1 -3024 Brazil 153 1,2 -23 24 United Arab Emirat 140 1,1 -2125 Thailand 152 1,2 -14 25 Thailand 134 1,1 -2526 Austria 138 1,1 -24 26 Brazil 134 1,1 -2727 Poland 134 1,1 -21 27 Malaysia 124 1,0 -2128 Sweden 131 1,1 -28 28 Sweden 120 0,9 -2929 Norway 121 1,0 -30 29 Czech Republic 105 0,8 -2630 Indonesia 119 1,0 -14 30 Saudi Arabia 96 0,8 -1731 Ireland 115 0,9 -9 31 Indonesia 92 0,7 -2832 Czech Republic 113 0,9 -23 32 Denmark 83 0,7 -2533 Turkey 102 0,8 -23 33 Hungary 78 0,6 -2834 Denmark 93 0,7 -20 34 South Africa 73 0,6 -2735 Hungary 84 0,7 -23 35 Viet Nam 70 0,6 -1336 Iran 78 0,6 -31 36 Portugal 70 0,6 -2237 Finland 63 0,5 -35 37 Norway 69 0,5 -2338 South Africa 63 0,5 -23 38 Ireland 63 0,5 -2639 Venezuela 58 0,5 -39 39 Finland 61 0,5 -3440 Viet Nam 57 0,5 -9 40 Greece 60 0,5 -3341 Slovak Republic 56 0,4 -21 41 Slovak Republic 55 0,4 -2542 Argentina 56 0,4 -21 42 Romania 54 0,4 -3543 Chile 54 0,4 -19 43 Iran 50 0,4 -1244 Nigeria 53 0,4 -36 44 Israel 49 0,4 -2745 Kuwait 50 0,4 -42 45 Philippines 46 0,4 -2446 Israel 48 0,4 -22 46 Ukraine 45 0,4 -4747 Algeria 45 0,4 -43 47 Egypt 45 0,4 -748 Portugal 43 0,3 -22 48 Chile 42 0,3 -31

WORLD 12 490 100,0 -23 WORLD 12 682 100,0 -23(WTO, 2010)

Hong-Kong and Singapore aretrade platforms

World Trade of Services 2009Exportadores Valor Quota (%) Variação

(%)Importadores Valor Quota

(%)Variação

(%)

1 United States 474 14,1 -9 1 United States 331 10,5 -92 United Kingdom 233 7,0 -18 2 Germany 253 8,1 -133 Germany 227 6,8 -12 3 United Kingdom 161 5,1 -184 France 143 4,3 -14 4 China 158 5,0 05 China 129 3,8 -12 5 Japan 147 4,7 -106 Japan 126 3,8 -14 6 France 126 4,0 -107 Spain 122 3,6 -14 7 Italy 115 3,6 -108 Italy 101 3,0 -14 8 Ireland 103 3,3 -59 Ireland 97 2,9 -5 9 Spain 87 2,8 -1710 Netherlands 91 2,7 -12 10 Netherlands 85 2,7 -811 Singapore 88 2,6 -10 11 Singapore 81 2,6 -612 India 87 2,6 -15 12 India 80 2,5 -913 Hong Kong 86 2,6 -6 13 Canada 78 2,5 -1214 Belgium 79 2,4 -8 14 South Korea 75 2,4 -1915 Switzerland 69 2,1 -10 15 Belgium 74 2,4 -1116 Sweden 61 1,8 -15 16 Russia 59 1,9 -1917 Luxembourg 61 1,8 -14 17 Denmark 51 1,6 -1818 Canada 58 1,7 -13 18 Sweden 46 1,5 -1419 South Korea 57 1,7 -25 19 Saudi Arabia 46 1,4 -820 Denmark 55 1,6 -24 20 Hong Kong 44 1,4 -5

China 5th exporter and 4th importer

India 12th exporter and 12th importer

Hong-Kong and Singapore aretrade platforms


(WTO, 2010)

21 Austria 53 1,6 -14 21 Brazil 44 1,4 -122 Australia 41 1,2 -7 22 Australia 41 1,3 -1323 Russia 41 1,2 -18 23 Thailand 38 1,2 -1824 Norway 38 1,1 -17 24 Norway 38 1,2 -1425 Greece 38 1,1 -25 25 Austria 37 1,2 -1326 Turkey 33 1,0 -5 26 United Arab Emirat 37 1,2 -1427 Taiwan 31 0,9 -11 27 Luxembourg 36 1,1 -1328 Thailand 30 0,9 -9 28 Switzerland 36 1,1 -229 Poland 29 0,9 -19 29 Taiwan 29 0,9 -1530 Malaysia 28 0,8 -7 30 Indonesia 28 0,9 -131 Brazil 26 0,8 -9 31 Malaysia 27 0,9 -1032 Finland 25 0,7 -21 32 Poland 24 0,8 -2133 Portugal 23 0,7 -13 33 Finland 23 0,7 -2534 Israel 22 0,6 -10 34 Mexico 21 0,7 -1535 Egypt 21 0,6 -14 35 Greece 20 0,6 -2036 Czech Republic 20 0,6 -7 36 Czech Republic 19 0,6 637 Macau 19 0,6 6 37 Israel 17 0,5 -1438 Hungary 18 0,5 -10 38 Iran 16 0,5 ...39 Lebanon 17 0,5 -4 39 Hungary 16 0,5 -1440 Mexico 15 0,5 -17 40 Turkey 16 0,5 -641 Ukraine 13 0,4 -23 41 Hungary 16 0,5 -1442 Indonesia 13 0,4 -10 42 South Africa 14 0,4 -1343 Morocco 12 0,4 -6 43 Portugal 14 0,4 -14

WORLD 3 350 100,0 -12 WORLD 3 145 100,0 -12

trade platforms

World FDI stocks 2008Inward FDI

stocks(million €)

Inward FDI stocks

(% world)

Outward FDI stocks

(million €)

Outward FDI stocks

(% world)

1 EUA 1 752 994 15,3 1 EUA 2 432 324 19,5

2 França 762 598 6,6 2 Reino Unido 1 161 995 9,33 Reino Unido 756 059 6,6 3 Alemanha 1 116 085 9,04 Hong-Kong 642 895 5,6 4 França 1 074 613 8,65 Alemanha 538 824 4,7 5 Holanda 649 028 5,26 Holanda 495 845 4,3 6 Hong-Kong 596 862 4,87 Espanha 488 298 4,3 7 Suíça 557 452 4,58 Bélgica 399 185 3,5 8 Japão 523 332 4,29 Canadá 317 129 2,8 9 Espanha 462 961 3,710 China 290 833 2,5 10 Bélgica 452 515 3,611 Suíça 287 734 2,5 11 Canadá 400 307 3,212 Itália 264 012 2,3 12 Itália 397 732 3,213 Singapura 250 878 2,2 13 Suécia 245 623 2,014 México 226 677 2,0 14 Rússia 156 028 1,3

Hong-Kong and Singapore are important FDI platforms

China 10th host country and24 th source country?


(UNCTAD, 2009)

14 México 226 677 2,0 14 Rússia 156 028 1,315 Brasil 221 305 1,9 15 Austrália 149 785 1,216 Austrália 209 365 1,8 16 Dinamarca 148 095 1,217 Suécia 195 002 1,7 17 Singapura 145 457 1,2

18 Rússia 164 411 1,4 18 Ilhas Virgens Britânicas 136 048 1,1

19 Japão 156 440 1,4 19 Taiwan 134 723 1,120 Irlanda 133 400 1,2 20 Noruega 131 665 1,121 Polónia 124 158 1,1 21 Brasil 124 783 1,022 Dinamarca 115 763 1,0 22 Irlanda 122 587 1,023 Áustria 107 185 0,9 23 Áustria 117 355 0,924 Índia 94 837 0,8 24 China 113 807 0,925 Noruega 93 478 0,8 25 Finlândia 88 097 0,726 África do Sul 91 840 0,8 26 Coreia do Sul 73 492 0,6

27 República Checa 87 976 0,8 27 Malásia 51 985 0,4

28 Arábia Saudita 87 905 0,8 28 Portugal 48 955 0,4

29 Tailândia 80 654 0,7 29 Luxemburgo 48 203 0,430 Chile 77 684 0,7 30 África do Sul 47 942 0,431 Portugal 76 785 0,7 31 Índia 47 512 0,4

1. Emerging Economies

1.2 Long Term Projections1.2 Long Term Projections

World Projections

High Debts of Developed Countries

Euro Crisis (EFSF-”European Financial Stabilisation Fund” becomes a bank?)

USA public debt (Federal+Municipal 200% GDP?)

Rise of Emerging Countries (BRICS, DAE, ASEAN):

Reorganization of World Production (China as a “World Factory”)

Scramble for Commodities and New Markets (Africa, Latin America, Artic,..)


Scramble for Commodities and New Markets (Africa, Latin America, Artic,..)

“Scramble for Europe”

Agressive Competition for FDI (capital as a scarce resource, euro-dollar fight)

Local Rivalries

End of Globalization? Backshoring? World Reorganization? China and India 2050?

More 2000 million people in 2050

“Law of Forward Delay”: in transition periods, the most advanced societies have more difficulty to adapt and tend to fail (Mesopotamia, Greek Empire, Roman Empire,…)???

External Debt

International Investment Position (%PIB)

Gross External Debt (%PIB)

GED (million €)

GED/ Exports 2009

1990(a) 2007 2010 2003 2007 2009 2009 (%)

Portugal -2,8 -91,4 -107,8 -183 -216 -232 -380 712 -614

Irlanda -72,3 -19,5 -98,4(c) -478 -872 -1 057 -1 688 335 -820

Grécia -15,7 -94,7 -98,2 -119 -145 -176 -418 731 -805

Espanha -12,1 -78,1 -87,4 -117 -159 -176 -1 778 288 -579

Hungria - -81,2 -83,4(b) -70 -122 -186 -162 910 -199

Brasil - -36,6 -32,0 - -15 -18 -192 753 -119

Itália -7,7 -21,5 -22,6(c) - 99 -118 -130 -1 911 825 -443

EUA 2,8 -13,6 -19,4(c) -62 -95 -102 -9 345 690 -519

Suécia -25,4 -1,0 -14,2(c) -122 -133 -240 -645 363 -359

Reino Unido -2,5 -23,0 -13,9 -301 -402 -421 -6 520 311 -1 016


(a) valores estimados (b) 2008 (c) 2009

Reino Unido -2,5 -23,0 -13,9 -301 -402 -421 -6 520 311 -1 016

Coreia do Sul -14,2 -22,0 -13,2 - -30 -48 -278 472 -79

França -1,8 -1,5 -10,6 -131 -186 -198 -3 677 756 -613

Índia - -5,9 -5,0(c) - -15 -20 -179 560 - 88

Rússia - -11,2 9,0(c) - -29 -39 -332 091 -89

Holanda 23,8 -6,0 19,0 -275 -335 -327 -1 817 130 -402

China - 32,7 29,8 - -11 -9 -305 873 -27

Bélgica 4,9 29,3 39,0(c) -258 -335 -286 -928 230 -299

Alemanha 20,1 27,0 41,5 -138 -154 -165 -3 752 179 -321

Japão 37,5 48,5 52,5 - -39 -40 -1 450 789 -191

Noruega 59,6 - 79,8 - -190 -203 -383 467 -276

Arábia Saudita - - - - -12 -16 -60 950 -26

Suíça 148 149,3 135,3 - -307 -245 -865 534 -442

Singapura - 193,7 230,6(c) -5 -15 -10 -13 557 -5

Hong-Kong - 233,6 309,3 -216 -310 -293 -477 489 -160 (FMI, 2011)

World Scenarios 2020

Depending on the Growth of Developed and Emerging Economies, and on theCoordination of World Financial Policies (WEF, 2008):

“Fragmented Protectionism” – stagnation/recessions in developed countries and low growths inemerging countries. End of eurozone by 2014 due to high public debts, gold rush, nationalization of banks.Severe controls on currency exchanges, capital flows and foreign investments. Return of commercialprotectionism, arms races, end of IMF and World Bank, local conflicts.

“Financial Regionalism” – average growth of 1.2% in developed countries and 9% in emergingcountries, 3 blocs (USA, Europe and Asia led by China). Low coordination, controls on currency exchanges,


countries, 3 blocs (USA, Europe and Asia led by China). Low coordination, controls on currency exchanges,loss of influence from ONU and WTO, new currency from the bloc Asia, rivalries for the control of Africa andLatin America.

“Rebalanced Multilateralism” – average growth of 1.8% in developed countries and fast growth inemerging countries. New financial crisis in USA, followed by new regulations on capital flows and externaldebts. “Tobin tax” on speculative financial operations. Indebted countries like Portugal, Ireland and Italysaved by IMF. World Bank and IMF are reestablished.

“Re-engineered Western Centrism” – average growth of 3.1% in developed countries byinnovating exports, and an average growth of 6% in emerging countries. New settlements for financialregulation and control of capital flows, and a new institution to replace IMF. Nevertheless, a new worldfinancial crisis will take place.

World Top 20 Economies - 2050


(PWC , 2011)

World Growth 2012-2016

2012

Angola 9,0%

India 8,8%

China 8,5%

Mozambique 7,8%

Cape Verde 6,8%

Vietnam 5,9%

Morocco 5,0%

São Tomé 5,0%

Chile 5,0%

Colombia 5,0%

Algeria 4,7%

Brazil 4,5%

South Africa 4,3%

Mexico 3,5%

Russia 2,5%


(IMF, 2011)

Challenges to Developed Countries

Weak Sectors Opportunity Sectors

Companies with High Energy Consumption and/or High Consumption of Commodities

Distribution or Retail Companies already working in Emerging Countries

Manufacturers with Low Specialization and Modernization

Finance Services already working in Emerging Countries

No Globalized Commercial Services World Brand Multinationals

No Globalized Financial Services Specialized Manufacturers of High Value Added


No Globalized Financial Services Specialized Manufacturers of High Value Added

Companies that tried to Globalize without Local Partners

Companies with Domestic Strengths (tourism, wines,..)

Companies easily Outsourced

Companies in the Health/Training/EducationSectors

Commercial Services

Polluting Manufacturers Public Utilities (energy, water,…)

Media Companies

2. China

2.1 Challenges to World Balance2.1 Challenges to World Balance

Evolution of Chinese Economy

Average Industrial Production Growth 2001-05


(BCG, 2006)

Low labor costs and high motivation Scale of production Scale to attract FDI High savings, High investments Government controls and protection Potential market,….

Average salary in manufacturers 2003 ($/hour)

Renaissance of China as

World 1st Superpower

Rise of Giants

1900

2000

USA

United KingdomFrance

G5 GermanyRussiaAustro-Hungarian Empire

USA

China


USA(India?)

1700 1820 1952 1978 2010 2030(*)

China 22,3% 32,9% 5,2% 4,9% 13,6% 23,1%

Europa Ocidental

21,9% 23,0% 25,9% 24,2% 20,4% 13,0%

Índia 24,4% 16,0% 4,0% 3,3% 5,5% 10,4%

Rússia 4,4% 5,4% 9,2% 9,0% 3,0% 3,4%

Japão 4,1% 3,0% 3,4% 7,6% 5,8% 3,6%

Estados Unidos 0,1% 1,8% 27,5% 21,6% 19,7% 17,3%

% WORLD GDP in PPP

(Maddison, 2006)

The Dragon

The 3rd country ≈ USA


t CHINA = 4% t CHINA = 5% t CHINA = 6% t CHINA = 7%

t USA = 2% 50 years 35 years 25 years 20 years

t USA = 3% 115 years 50 years 30 years 25 years

Time for China to catch USA (Nominal GDP)

≈ 30 years

1/4 USA GDP per capita

PaísNúmero das 500 Maiores

Empresas MundiaisCidade

Número das 500 Maiores Empresas Mundiais

1. EUA 139 1. Tóquio 49

2. Japão 71 2. Pequim 30

3. China 46 3. Paris 25

4. França 39 4. Nova Iorque 19

5. Alemanha 37 5. Londres 18

6. Reino Unido 29 6. Seul 9

7. Suíça 15 7. Osaka 8

8. Holanda 13 8. Toronto 7

World Top 10 Companies World Top 500 Companies

The Dragon

Empresa (CB) País Sector Empresa (VN) País Sector

1. Petrochina China Petróleos 1. Wal-Mart EUA Distribuição

2. Exxon Mobil EUA Petróleos 2. Royal Dutch ShellHolanda/

Reino Unido Petróleos

3. Microsoft EUA Informática 3. Exxon Mobil EUA Petróleos

4. Industrial and Commercial Bank

China Banca 4. BP Reino Unido Petróleos

5. Apple EUA Computadores 5. Toyota Motor Japão Automóveis

6. BHP BilitonAustrália/

Reino UnidoMinas 6. Japan Post Holdings Japão Correios/Bancos

/Seguros

7. Wal-Mart EUA Distribuição 7. Sinopec China Petróleos

8. Berkshire Hathway EUA Investimento 8. State Grid China Energia


América Norte

AméricaCentral/

SulEuropa CIS África

MédioOriente

ÁsiaÁsia

(apenasChina)

TOTAL

Import. Inter-Regionais 28,1% 5,3% 28,4% 4,1% 4,8% 5,9% 23,3% 15,4% 100%

Export. Inter-Regionais

14,7% 6,0% 24,7% 6,5% 6,2% 10,9% 31,0% 18,3% 100%

Inter-Regional Trade

8. Berkshire Hathway EUA Investimento 8. State Grid China Energia

9. General Electric EUA Indústria 9. AXA França Seguros

10. China Mobile China Telecomunic.10.China National

PetroleumChina Petróleos

(by Stock Value) (by Earnings)

60% exports still produced by companies with FDI, ½ with 100% FDI

≈ only 50% of value added in exports is from China (60-70% in the West)

The Dragon

GDP of Provinces Largest Chinese Cities 2050


(The Economist, 2011)

Official Reserves: 2 200 000 million euro ≈ 13 x Portugal GDP

10 million houses built in 2011

1.3 million new engineers and scientists in 2011

Reservas (biliões barris)

Reservas Mundiais

(%)

Duração Reservas

(anos)

Produção (milhões

bpd)

Produção Mundial

(%)

1. Arábia Saudita 262,3 22,4 75 9,55 13,3

2. Irão 136,3 11,7 83 4,14 5,7

3. Iraque 115,0 9,8 168 1,88 2,6

4. Kuwait 101,5 8,7 110 2,53 3,5

5. Emiratos Árabes Unidos 97,8 8,4 106 2,54 3,5

6. Venezuela 80,0 6,8 107 1,98 2,7

7. Rússia 60,0 5,1 18 9,04 12,6

8. Líbia 41,5 3,6 65 1,63 2,3

Energy Challenges

Global CO2 Emissions from Fuel andCement

Oil in the World


9. Nigéria 36,2 3,1 37 2,63 3,6

10. Cazaquistão 30,0 2,6 23 1,05 1,5

11. Estados Unidos 21,8 1,9 11 5,18 7,2

12. China 16,0 1,4 14 3,61 5,0

13. Qatar 15,2 1,3 50 0,84 1,2

14. México 12,4 1,1 12 3,33 4,6

15. Argélia 12,3 1,1 18 1,80 2,5

16. Brasil 11,8 1,0 18 1,63 2,3

17. Angola 8,0 0,7 12 1,26 1,7

18. Noruega 7,8 0,7 9 2,70 3,7

MUNDO 1143,2 100,0 - - -

(Olivier and Peters, 2010)

(EIA, 2011)

Coal is the main source

9 nuclear power plants + 30 new ones (USA 103 + 14)

Vast investments in renewable sources

China in the World


Neighboring Countries

India

1st Naval Chain: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan?, Philippines

2nd Naval Chain: Mariana Islands (USA), Australia and New Zealand

Local Military Disputes

World Disputes: USA, EU

China in the World


(Khan, 2007)

Scramble for Commodities in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America

Oil/Gas Pipelines to China

Chinese Navy in Somalia coast

3 Chinese Naval Fleets (min. 3 aircraft carriers),…

How China sees the World


(The Economist, 2009)

Beijing as “Capital of the World” New York

2. China

2.2 Opportunities2.2 Opportunities

The Chinese Market

Household Consumption Evolution

GDP


Average disposable income of 2 000 € per capita

Population still cautious about the future

Low private consumption per capita

(NBSC, 2011)

Wealth Distribution

The Chinese Market


(MCI, 2008)

Middle class ≈ 50 million people with a disposable income of 10 000 € per capita (≈ Portugal)

50% middle class live outside the 40 biggest cities

The Chinese Market


China overcomes Germany by 2015, and Japan by 2030

30% of world luxury products by 2015

1.3 million millionaires (assets > 1 million $)

The Chinese Market

Main Opportunities

Tourism, Logistics, High Technology, Retail, Environment,

Energy, Health, Sports, Elderly Care, Luxury Products….

All Sectors

Not an Easy Market !!


Consumption 2005

(milhões €)

Consumption 2025

(milhões €)

Annual Growth (%)

Food and Beverages 127 500 371 700 5,5

Transports and Communication 51 900 351 400 10,0

Education and Recreation 54 200 343 400 9,7

Housing and Utilities 33 300 305 400 11,7

Health Care 27 700 268 100 12,0

Apparel and Footwear 40 000 129 800 6,1

Household items 23 000 89 300 7,0

Personal items 12 900 61 000 8,1

(BCG, 2009)

3. Developed Economies

3.1 What to do?3.1 What to do?

European Trade

Different Trade Strenghts Trade with China

Exports (million €)

Imports (million €)

Trade Balance (million €)

Variation (%)

Export. Import.

Suíça 4 460 2 770 1 690 37,3 43,5

Bélgica 3 850 9 770 -5 920 15,5 28,0

Holanda 3 770 31 840 -28 070 35,0 34,2

Espanha 3 460 12 690 -9 230 47,6 43,9

Suécia 3 150 3 460 -310 20,3 38,8


(%GDP)

(OCDE, 2006)

Suécia 3 150 3 460 -310 20,3 38,8

Finlândia 2 920 5 080 -2 160 21,5 32,4

Áustria 1 850 1 230 620 19,5 48,0

Irlanda 1 540 3 390 -1 850 24,5 13,3

Dinamarca 1 380 3 540 -2 160 39,2 25,9

Noruega 1 230 1 690 -460 29,1 29,4

Hungria 920 3 840 -2 920 72,9 52,6

R. Checa 620 3 150 -2 530 60,8 74,9

Eslovénia 540 1 150 -610 118,6 154,3

Portugal 285 1 270 -985 8,7 34,3

Grécia 150 2 540 -2 390 62,8 49,3

(MOFCOM, 2011)

EU Attitude to China


(ECFR, 2011)

What to do?

Increase of R&D investments (Israel 4.5% GDP, Sweden 3.5% GDP,….)

Niche Markets, Luxury Products and Services with Historical Roots (Sports, Tourism, Wine, Spirits, Gourmet Products, …)

Increase Marketing Efforts to maintain Brands (Coca-Cola, Mercedes-Benz,….)

Increase Political Pressure to open Emerging Markets

More Partnerships with Local Companies


More Partnerships with Local Companies

Openness to FDI from Emerging Economies

More Reforms in Education, Justice and Economy, to increase Competitiveness

Offshoring? Stop Knowledge Transfer? Scramble for Commodities?

Never: Closure of markets, Military Rivalries, Wars,…????

emerging economies - chinadocentes.fe.unl.pt/~jamador/sepe_pt/lm_uk.pdf · china 5th exporter and...

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