emerging corridors of delhi ncr

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  • 7/27/2019 Emerging Corridors of Delhi NCR

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    Emerging corridors of

    Delhi NCR

    Future development amidst economic and regulatory changes

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    2 Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR

    Current

    macroeconomicscenario

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    Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR 3

    US unemployment rate has gone down signicantly, although job creation is slower than anticipated

    US housing sector has been showing progressive recovery since 4Q-2011

    Source: US Bureau of Labour Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Agency

    500 11.0%

    300 10.0%

    1009.0%

    (100)8.0%

    (300)

    7.0%

    (500)

    6.0%

    (700)

    5.0%

    4.0%

    Jan2005

    Jan2006

    Jan2007

    Jan2008

    Jan2009

    Jan2010

    Jan2011

    Jan2012

    Jan2013

    July2005

    July2006

    July2007

    July2008

    July2009

    July2010

    July2011

    Non-farm jobs (000s)

    Unemployment rate (RHS)

    July2012

    July2013

    (900) 3.0%

    Jan2000

    Mar2001

    May2002

    July2003

    Sep2004

    Nov2005

    Aug2007

    Oct2008

    Nov2012

    Dec2009

    Jun2006

    Aug2000

    Oct2001

    Dec2002

    Feb2004

    Apr2005

    Jan2007

    Mar2008

    July20101

    FHFA US Housing Price Index (base year - 1980)

    May2009

    Jun2013

    Feb2011

    Apr2012

    170

    160

    150

    140

    130

    120

    110

    100

    90

    US economy: Housing market recovers, unemployment falls but job creation is still slow

    Global economy

    From the global economy perspective, we now witness

    diversity in growth rates across three major continents.

    The worlds largest economy, the United States, has

    been on a recovery path with its hitherto most distressed

    sector - the housing sector - recovering sustainably over

    last 4-5 quarters. A partially improving manufacturing

    sector along with certain macro-prudent scal and

    monetary policies have led to unemployment rate falling

    substantially from over 9.0% as of early-2010 to around 7.0%

    levels currently, thereby providing policymakers with great

    comfort. Along with an improving manufacturing sector and

    prudent scal management, the economy posted a healthy

    growth rate of 2.2% YoY in 2012, as against 1.8% in the

    previous year.

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    4 Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR

    In the European region, which was worst affected during the crisis

    period and acted a drag on the world economy; the best that could

    have happened in recent times is growth stability. After havingwitnessed several quarters of recessionary growth, recent economic

    releases indicate a stable outlook for the current scal year. Recent

    quarterly ofcial statistics as well as the IMF estimate for 2013

    suggests that the region region may be crawling out of recession.

    However, it still suffers from high debt and unemployment rates, which

    need to be addressed carefully through prudent scal and monetary

    management.

    Meanwhile, problems seem to have resurfaced for the Asian countries,

    led by the Chinese economy which is the largest in the region.

    Growth in China, which is considered a factory to the World, has

    moderated sharply from 10.4% in 2010 to 7.8% as of end-2012. Many

    Asian economies, including the developed ones to an extent such as

    Source: IMF

    Australia and Japan, depend on China through trade linkages. Risk

    of hard-landing of the Chinese economy could pose a challenge for

    these dependent economies.In the present world of increasing trade and nancial integration,

    the economic woes of the developed world are spilling over to

    emerging countries through weaker demand for exports, heightened

    volatility in capital ows and commodity prices. For instance, a loose

    monetary policy of the US was a source of cheap funding for several

    emerging economies that are currently reeling under current account

    imbalances. More so, some problems of emerging countries are also

    home-grown. After having witnessed high growth rates in the recent

    past, several of these economies have started to face structural

    bottlenecks, including funding constraints faced by local governments,

    or overinvestment leading to excess production capacity in others, as

    in the case of China.

    Euro area continues to suffer from unsustainably high levels of debt and unemployment

    30%

    25%

    20%

    15%

    10%

    5%

    2006

    2012

    0%

    Spain Greece Italy USA GermanyFrance UK Japan

    Unemployment rate rose sharply since the crisis erupted, particularly in indebted European nations

    100.0

    90.0

    80.0

    70.0

    60.0

    50.0

    40.0

    2006

    69

    2007

    66

    2008

    70

    2010

    86

    2012

    93

    2009

    80

    2011

    88

    2013e

    95

    Euro areas rising government debt (% of GDP)

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    Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR 5

    India economy

    India has its own set of problems over and above the uncertainties

    arising from an uncertain global economic outlook. A brief periodof rising international commodity prices during 2010 had exposed

    the supply-bottlenecks inherent in the Indian economy, causing

    widespread ination (see ination chart below). While demand

    was high due to high consumerism in India, not all demand could

    be fullled due to capacity constraints and other structural issues.

    Resolving these structural issues requires long-term planning and

    cannot be solved in the short-term. Thus, the RBI had no alternative

    but to raise interest rates consistently in the short-term to dampen

    demand and subsequently arrest a widening demand-supply gap.

    Source: Mospi, RBI

    Unlike developed world, India and few other emerging nations are experiencing headwinds since 2012

    15.0

    13.0

    11.0

    9.0

    7.0

    5.0

    3.0

    1.0

    (1.0)Mar2007

    Mar2008

    Mar2009

    Mar2010

    Mar2011

    Mar2012

    Mar2013

    Jun2007

    Jun2008

    Jun2009

    Jun2010

    Jun2011

    Jun2012

    Jun2013

    Sep2007

    Sep2008

    Sep2009

    Sep2010

    Sep2011

    Sep2012

    Dec2007

    Dec2008

    Dec2009

    Dec2010

    Dec2011

    Dec2012

    RBI policy: Ination targetting takes precedence

    20.0%

    15.0%

    10.0%

    5.0%

    0.0%

    -5.0%

    Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012Mar 2011 Mar 2012Sep 2010 Sep 2011 Sep 2011Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Mar 2013

    Investment-led slowdown results in drag on consumption as well (% YoY)

    Over a period of 22 months during 2010-11, the RBI increased

    benchmark interest rates (the repo rate) by a whopping 375 basis

    points (100 basis points = 1%), consequently affecting investmentsand to some extent consumption.

    The eventual fallout on the broader economy was imminent with

    quarterly growth consistently slowing since the last peak observed in

    FY2010-11. As of the latest QE-March 2013, economic growth stood

    at a paltry 4.8% YoY, resulting in an annual growth rate that stood at

    5.0% for FY2012-13. This is the slowest rate of annual growth since

    almost a decade. As growth deteriorated and liquidity remained tight,

    all sectors witnessed slack, including the construction and real estate

    (part of the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate sector FIRE).

    9.0

    8.0

    8.5

    7.5

    7.0

    6.5

    6.0

    5.5

    4.5

    5.0

    4.0

    WIP ination (%YoY, LHS)

    Real GDP

    Repo Rate (%RHS)

    Pvt. Consumption Investment

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    6 Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR

    Another major concern for India in recent times has been

    the widening gap between its imports and exports, which is

    captured in the current account statement. As of nancial year

    ending Mar-2013, the current account decit (CAD) stood at

    4.8% of GDP, which is much above the comfort zone of Indian

    policymakers - 2.5-3.0% of GDP. In a tight liquidity scenario such

    as that presiding in India, this decit needs to be bridged usingexternal nancing. Thus, a burgeoning decit makes India highly

    dependent, and therefore vulnerable, to vagaries of external

    capital ows and consequently, increases risk of an investment

    downgrade. This CAD nancing risk has lately got transmitted

    into a weaker rupee, which recently touched a historic low of

    61.8 as of rst week of August 2013. (See chart on INR currency

    and 10-yr yield)

    With limited support coming from global economy and a water-

    tight situation with the monetary policy authorities, the onlyalternative that seems feasible is to carry out scal reforms that

    would encourage foreign ows into India. The on-going monsoon

    session (during the entire month of August) of the Indian

    legislature is a good time for the government to roll-out certain

    additional measures to boost growth.

    The currently ruling UPA government has not entirely

    disappointed investors on that front, although more needs to

    be done in terms of making conditions for investment more

    market-friendly. The last three quarters has been very active for

    the real estate sector in terms of policies. Beginning September

    2012, when the government brought forward a motion to allow

    51% FDI in multi-brand retailing, which got approved in theparliament in the month of Dec-2012, to allowing 100% FDI

    in single-brand retailing, the policy environment has become

    somewhat friendly. More recently in June-July 2013, the Indian

    government has proposed concessions on the FDI norms for

    retail (amongst certain others sectors) in order to factor-in

    concerns over operational feasibility of international retailers. The

    move has excited several international retailers who have been

    contemplating an entry into Indian market. In the QE-June 2013,

    the central government had passed the real estate regulatory bill,

    which was pending for some time and is touted to be the game-changer in the industry particularly for the residential sector.

    India GDP Growth versus Construction and FIRE Sector (% YoY)

    12.0 14.0

    12.010.0

    10.08.0

    8.06.0

    6.0

    4.04.0

    2.0 2.0

    0.0 0.0

    1QFY11 1QFY12 1QFY132QFY11 2QFY12 2QFY133QFY11 3QFY12 3QFY134QFY11 4QFY12 4QFY13

    8.69.5 9.2 9.9

    7.5

    6.05.1 5.2

    6.55.4

    4.84.7

    Construction Sector (RHS)Real GDP FIRE Sector (RHS)

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    Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR 7

    Source: MOSPI, RBI, Oanda.com

    Indias external vulnerability risk getting transmitted to markets

    10-year bond yield % (RHS)INR / USD Values

    Capital A/C balanceCurrent A/C balance

    40.0

    30.0

    20.0

    10.0

    0.0

    -10.0

    -20.0

    -30.0

    -40.0

    1QFY09

    1QFY10

    1QFY11

    1QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY09

    2QFY10

    2QFY11

    2QFY12

    2QFY13

    3QFY09

    3QFY10

    3QFY11

    3QFY12

    3QFY13

    4QFY09

    4QFY10

    4QFY11

    4QFY12

    4QFY13

    Indias growing vulnerability to nance its Current Account Decit (CAD)

    (in USD billion)

    Interim risk perception of Indian economy has risen

    (data upto end-July 2013)

    45

    47

    3.0

    2.6

    2.8

    49

    2.451

    2.253

    2.0

    55

    57

    59

    61

    63 1.0

    1.2

    1.4

    1.6

    1.8

    Jan 2012 Sep 2012 May 2013Mar 2012 Nov 2012May 2012 Jan 2013Jul 2012 Mar 2013 Jul 2013

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    8 Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR

    Brazil China India Russia

    20.0%

    15.0%

    10.0%

    5.0%

    -0.0%

    -5.0%

    -10.0%

    1955-6

    0

    1950-5

    5

    1960-6

    5

    1970-7

    5

    1965-7

    0

    1975-8

    0

    1985-9

    0

    1980-8

    5

    1995-0

    0

    1990-9

    5

    2000-0

    5

    2005-1

    0

    2010-1

    5

    2015-2

    0

    2020-2

    5

    2025-3

    0

    2030-3

    5

    2035-4

    0

    2040-4

    5

    Higher growth of young population to last longer in India

    (% Growth in working population aged 15-59)

    Number of new rms incorporated

    Emerging Economies Annual avg growth 2004-11 (%)

    Russia 35.4%

    India 26.0%

    Indonesia 13.3%

    Hong Kong, China 12.7%

    Singapore 9.7%

    Brazil 6.3%

    Korea 5.7%

    Malaysia 2.5%

    Australia 0.9%

    Source: World Bank Entrepreneurship indicators 2013

    Indias long-term story remains intact

    As per the UN population statistics, Indias favourable demographic story (rising workforce population in the age group of 15-59 years) will last

    for at least another 25-30 years. As against this, other major emerging economies would witness a sharp decline in this demographic dividend

    in the next 7-12 years, resulting in narrowing of spread between their growth rates with that of advanced countries.

    At a time when the world economy has slowed down considerably,

    affected by the global nancial crisis, Indias rising potential for

    growth, rising per-capita income, high consumerism and relativelylow wages is attracting investors and companies to shift their base

    and start operations in India. As per recently published World Banks

    Entrepreneurship indicators, in a seven year period of new rms

    incorporated in India witnessed a stellar growth rate of 26% annually

    in a seven year period until 2011 (latest available data), second only

    to Russia.

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    Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR 9

    In focusDelhi NCR Real Estate

    performance

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    10 Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR

    It is pertinent to observe how the Delhi National Capital Region (Delhi

    NCR) real estate markets have performed over the past year or so.

    All three sectors - ofce, retail and residential - are witnessing growth

    because of the suburban towns surrounding the prime city. The

    reasons for this are the large untapped development potential in the

    suburbs and the substantial nancial viability and affordability that are

    available to both developers and end-users in these locations.

    Based on the evidence presented above, it is clear that suburbs are

    the drivers of real estate growth across Delhi NCR. As such, they are

    also the drivers of pricing and other nancial indicators. The prime city,

    however, has an appreciable level of ofce and retail stock, but the

    lack of potential for future development limits its growth.

    We look at the past 18-month period of reection following the recovery

    that began in 2010. A qualitative overview of the three sectors - ofce,

    retail and residential - with relevance to the Delhi NCR follows.

    Ofce

    There was a period of stagnation in 2012, followed by ofce space

    occupiers adopting consolidation measures. The global economic

    signals were sluggish and the impact was most visible on Delhi NCR

    ofce market that is driven primarily by the IT/ITeS sector. With the

    Americas and Europe in the throes of a slowdown, ofce demand

    dipped and, as a result, 2012 recorded the lowest absorption volumes

    in eight years at 3.8 million sq ft. Occupiers of ofce space were

    looking at portfolio rationalisation and cost control measures such

    as relocation and/or consolidation and space enquiries were the

    dominant aspect of demand in the ofce markets.

    It is pertinent to note that since 2009, the annual new supply of

    commercial ofce space has caused the total stock to rise by 70%

    (from end-2009) to nearly 70 million sq ft at end-2012. Previously, from

    2006 to 2009, stock had more than doubled to more than 40 million sq

    ft by end-2009. This points towards new supply also showing a slight

    correction, as demand levels remained steady.

    Demand levels started showing an improvement over the rst half

    of 2013, with fresh absorption already at 62% of 2012 levels. Gross

    transaction volumes also showed an increase and were nearly 1.8

    million sq ft during 2Q13, compared to 0.98 million sq ft in 1Q13, a

    substantial 84% q-o-q improvement.

    The chart below shows the performance of the combined ofce

    60% 100%

    4%0%

    80%

    Residential(Unsold Units)

    Retail (sqft)

    20%10%

    34% 66%

    14% 67% 15%

    13% 63% 25%

    40%

    Ofce (sqft)

    CBD/SBD Gurgaon Noida

    CBD/SBD Gurgaon Noida Faridabad Ghaziabad

    Delhi City Suburban

    *(The chart above shows the current Delhi NCR stock/supply levels on anoverall basis and at the sub-market level that contribute to supply in the

    appropriate asset classes (2Q13))

    Delhi NCR - Ofce Supply / Absorption and Vacancy rates

    4,50,000

    4,00,000

    3,50,000

    3,00,000

    2,50,000

    2,00,000

    1,15,000

    1,00,000

    50,000

    30.0%

    25.0%

    20.0%

    15.0%

    10.0%

    5.0%

    0.0%01Q 2012 3Q 2012 1Q 20132Q 2012 4Q 2012 2Q 2013

    New Construction Net Absorption Vacancy Rate

    sqft

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    Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR 11

    markets of Delhi, Gurgaon and Noida. The prime ofce sub-markets

    are still the suburbs of Gurgaon and Noida. Within these sub-markets,

    DLF Cyber City and Sohna Road in Gurgaon and the Noida-

    Greater Noida Expressway in Noida are the most sought after ofce

    destinations. The ofce markets of Delhi (CBD and SBD) remain

    marginal players in terms of fresh supply and absorption volumes.

    Retail

    The Delhi NCR retail sector has a unique character - the market,with its combined per capita incomes being one of the highest in

    the country provides every retailer with a healthy consumer base.

    For analysis, we segregate organised retail in this market into the

    Prime South (South Delhi retail mall developments), Prime Others

    (mall developments in the north, west, east and the rest of Delhi) and

    Suburbs (Noida, Greater Noida, Gurgaon, Ghaziabad and Faridabad)

    sub-markets.

    Retailers have over recent quarters been aligning their growth strategy

    with a focus on their business margins and expanding in previously

    untapped markets. The focus was to grow selectively in existing

    prime retail assets or select new and under-construction projects that

    offered the optimum advantages of location, brand visibility and a

    pure leasehold ownership model. This led to slow absorption volumes

    that were the norm across most quarters during the past 18 months.

    Only 1Q12 and 4Q12 saw moderate absorption, primarily because of

    new project completions in the suburbs that became operational with

    moderate pre-commitment levels.

    The period under consideration was marked by two major trends.

    One, retailers were downsizing the number of stores, shutting down

    those that were recording low business volumes. Large format

    retailers were also looking at reducing their typical store sizes. Mall

    management teams, on the other hand, became active in tenant

    management, undertaking periodic tenant performance reviews and

    letting go low-performing tenants for better prospects.

    Noida-Greater Noida Expressway

    Noida City

    SBD

    CBD

    Sohna Road

    MG Road

    NH-8

    Golf Course Road

    Gurgaon Ofce sub-markets

    Noida Ofce sub-markets

    Delhi Ofce sub-markets

    GROWTHSLOWING

    RENTSFALLING

    DECLINESLOWING

    RENTSRISING

    Delhi NCR - Retail Supply / Absorption and Vacancy rates

    80,000

    70,000

    60,000

    50,000

    40,000

    30,000

    20,000

    10,000

    0

    25.4%

    25.2%

    25.0%

    24.8%

    24.6%

    24.4%

    24.0%

    24.2%

    23.8%

    23.6%-10,000 1Q 2012 3Q 2012 1Q 20132Q 2012 4Q 2012 2Q 2013

    New Construction Net Absorption Vacancy Rate

    sqft

    Values for 2Q13

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    12 Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR

    Demand in Delhi NCR retail markets came from both domestic

    and global retailers, especially in the apparel, electronics and food

    and beverage sectors. The market has the highest number of

    operational malls (more than 90) compared to any other Indian urban

    agglomeration and this is indicative of how the organised retail sector

    has gained ground in this sub-market and altered shopping habits of

    the urban population.

    Most of the future developments are in the Suburbs sub-market, and

    this retail market is likely to contribute signicantly to retail demand

    going forward. However, the retailers plans of selecting only specic

    projects based on their business growth parameters are likely to add

    to growing supply and vacancy rate pains in the retail sector. The mostsought-after retail projects are those located in the Prime South sub-

    market, and they command the highest rents.

    A lack of vacant space in preferred malls has led to retailers focusing

    on the prominent high streets of the main city, such as Connaught

    Place, South Extension, Khan Market and Rajouri Garden.

    Residential

    The residential sector has not been left untouched by the events that

    have inuenced the domestic economy over the previous 18 months.These events along with the consistent increase in land valuations

    and input construction costs have led to sustained price increments

    across all residential markets in Delhi NCR, despite demand

    momentum being affected by such a price rise.

    Like other real estate asset classes, the vibrant nature of residential

    sector is also attributed to the contribution of suburban cities, which

    along with Delhi form the Delhi NCR residential market.

    Each residential market has its own typical development types, price

    points and buyer/investor categories. The Delhi NCR residential sector

    offers a wide range of projects across all categories classied by type

    (apartments, row houses, villas, plots) and price (affordable, mid,

    premium and luxury). There is a fair mix of both buyers and investors

    across all the residential markets, although investor contribution is

    signicantly higher in Gurgaon and Noida residential markets as they

    offer a wider array of projects and are backed by healthy demand

    levels.

    The prime city of Delhi has been a marginal contributor with select

    residential projects only and as such may not provide an accurate

    barometer of the Delhi NCR residential sector

    Noidaresidential market has been the largest contributor to the new

    supply of private apartment units for the past 17 quarters, barring one.

    This residential market is home to the Noida Extension residential

    corridor, which has been a signicant contributor to apartment unit

    supply in the overall Delhi NCR residential market. As a result, Noida

    residential market has recorded the highest sales volumes over the

    last 18 months. The Noida-Greater Noida Expressway corridor has

    been the most vibrant, with projects available at varying price points

    and its location acting as a major pull factor. The hosting of theFormula 1 event in Greater Noida has also brought about

    interest in that residential corridor, which was otherwise

    facing stagnation because of low

    buyer/investor interest.

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    Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR 13

    Gurgaonresidential market has strong fundamentals of controlled

    supply and good traction from investors and buyers alike. It has scaled

    its previous market peaks recorded in 2008 and remains in demand.

    All of the major developers have their eyes set on the residential

    growth corridors of NH-8 and the Dwarka-Gurgaon Expressway, which

    account for most of the new supply in this market over the past 18-24

    months period. This residential market is also seeing good traction in

    terms of luxury apartment supply by prominent national developers.

    These growth corridors have seen a healthy increase in primary

    market price levels because of the healthy sales volumes in these

    sub-markets.

    The other suburban residential markets of Ghaziabad and Faridabadcater primarily for affordable and mid-segment housing and their

    lower price points are a reection of the relatively lower investor

    interest here. However, with an increased focus on affordable housing,

    developers are actively looking at the NH-24 stretch in Ghaziabad,

    which already has a sizeable living population in the developed

    residential corridors of Vaishali and Indirapuram. The Faridabad

    residential market has Greater Faridabad (also known as Neharpaar)

    as a growth corridor, offering projects at relatively affordable price

    points.

    Overall, the Delhi NCR residential market has seen sustained price

    increases that have contributed to a steady cooling-off of the demand

    momentum over the past 12-18 months. However, we have not seen

    a denitive trend of falling sales, although the sales volumes as a

    percentage of available stock have shown a sluggish decrease,

    pointing to a creeping stagnancy in the residential markets. The

    Delhi NCR - Residential Supply / Absorption and Vacancy rates

    35,000

    30,000

    25,000

    20,000

    15,000

    10,000

    5,000

    0

    38.0%

    36.0%

    34.0%

    32.0%

    30.0%

    28.0%

    24.0%

    22.0%

    26.0%

    20.0%1Q 2012 3Q 2012 1Q 20132Q 2012 4Q 2012 2Q 2013

    New Construction Net Absorption Vacancy Rate

    Numberofapartmentunits

    macroeconomic situation has not allowed the Reserve Bank of India

    to cut the repo rates, which could lead to a reduction in home loan

    interest rates and has acted as a catalyst for slowing demand. A

    reduction in apartment supply is also a pointer in this regard.

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    14 Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR

    Recent Policy Changes and its Impact on Delhi NCR Market

    less than USD 1 million in plant and machinery. The period for

    the second provision was not dened. For example, if a small

    business increased its capital expenditure investment above the

    limit, would the retailer have to change supplier in order to adhere

    to the 30% sourcing cap?

    Some clarication was provided in June 2013 by the Department

    of Industrial Policy and Promotion. The infrastructure of existing

    multi-brand retail chains bought by foreign retailers was not to

    be counted as part of the mandatory investment criterion. New

    retailers had to invest in their front-end operations from their

    own pockets, thus disallowing the franchisee route of growth to

    global rms. In addition, the sourcing requirement of 30% from

    Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) was restrictedto processed goods only and agro goods were not included. This

    sourcing could not be used for their global business, but only for

    domestic sales through retail chain stores.

    On 1 August 2013, the government offered further concessions

    on investment regulations. The 30% sourcing from MSMEs

    has been revised to include rms where investment in

    plant and machinery was USD 2 million. Additionally, the

    sourcing requirement is applicable only at the beginning of

    the relationship, i.e. if a rm grows above the USD 2 million

    limit, the relationship will endure. The investment in back-end

    infrastructure has been capped at USD 50 million only. The

    other major concession has been that rms will now be allowed

    to operate in cities with a population lower than the one million

    limit introduced earlier, subject to the approval of the state

    governments.

    However, all these changes have to be mandated by parliament

    before real groundwork is expected to begin from the retailers

    end. The policy is likely to see some traction in Delhi NCR

    only by 2015. Delhi NCR, however, does offer global retailersthe option to set up independent stores in suburban centres.

    Considering their business margins and store sizes, such

    retailers may nd the traditional high streets and organised retail

    developments expensive in terms of operating costs.

    Real Estate Regulatory Bill and the Land Acquisition,

    Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill

    The above two bills have the potential to impact the residential

    sector, particularly private enterprises involved in real estate

    development.

    The Real Estate Regulatory Billmeets a long standing need

    for providing much-needed transparency and regulating the

    Changes in Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Policy

    Recent changes in the SEZ policy have removed the land size

    cap of 25 acres for IT SEZs while also reducing the minimumbuilt-up requirement to 100,000 sqm in the seven major

    cities, including Delhi NCR. In such a scenario, it is likely that

    developers of under-construction SEZs who have already

    achieved the minimum built-up criteria and have surplus land

    available may not undertake development of future phases

    and will have to launch residential projects for faster inventory

    ofoading and the cash conversion cycle. This is likely to

    inuence the development of future phases in the SEZs, with

    developers not retaining the keenness to develop ofce space

    unless a potential occupier pre-commits to space take-up. Withthe residential sector remaining quite robust and attracting both

    buyers and investors, it is likely that developers will remain

    focused on residential developments at the expense of their

    commercial projects. With returns from the residential sector

    likely to remain high, developers may need a greater nancial

    incentive to create ofce developments going forward, or they

    are likely to adopt a go-slow policy. With returns low at current

    prevailing rents, and project gestation periods being similar

    for residential and comparable ofce projects, the possibility

    of developers increasing quoted rents for vacant space andfuture ofce phases in such SEZ projects must be taken into

    account. It is also likely that with the removal of the land size

    cap and the development area requirement reduced, occupiers

    might approach state governments or attempt to source land

    by themselves to create their captive, campus-styled SEZ

    developments.

    In addition, the twin reasons of reducing vacancy rates in quality

    projects and the constrained future supply that will be affected

    by the SEZ policy change might lead developers to seek higher

    nancial incentive to undertake ofce development, which is

    likely to result in rents rising over the medium term.

    FDI Policy in Retail

    The rst announcement allowing FDI in multi-brand retail trading

    was made in September 2012, with the industry acknowledging

    the proactive approach. Two major provisions of the policy

    caused concern among retailers. One was retailers having to

    invest 50% of their total investment in greeneld developments

    and back-end infrastructure of cold storage and supply chains.

    The minimum investment in multi-brand retailing ventures had

    to be USD 100 million. The other was retailers having to source

    30% of their material from small businesses that had invested

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    Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR 15

    hitherto largely unregulated housing sector in India. By applying

    this bill to all projects more than 4,000 sqm in size, the ambit

    is quite large and seeks to cover all major private residential

    developments across the country.

    The Real Estate Regulatory Bill works both ways. While it aims

    to hold developers accountable, it also looks to ensure that the

    allottees do not default in making payments. Thus, by providing

    penalties for both the promoters and the allottees, the bill

    seeks to ensure that non-compliance is minimal. On enactment,

    the bill aims to ensure that real estate transactions are carried

    out in a just and equitable manner.

    The category of real estate brokershas also been brought

    under the ambit of this bill by making their registration

    mandatorywhen the promoter provides the project details to the

    Regulatory Authority.

    The bill also seeks to dene the carpet area, which will be a

    standard denition across the country.

    The bill seeks to provide a model Agreement to Sellunder

    which the promoter is liable to furnish the necessary project

    details to the allottee while also becoming responsible for

    providing project-level details as demanded by the buyer.

    The bill will establish a central Appellate Tribunal, with the

    individual states responsible for setting up the Regulatory

    Authority at the state level.

    Although the bill will be a boon for property purchasers and

    consumers, it has received a lot of opposition and criticism from

    developers for not being inclusive in its approach. The bill in its

    current form does not provide for any relief to developers in terms

    of getting through the cumbersome approvals and permissions

    process in an expeditious manner. It has been a constant

    complaint by developers in India that they have to experience

    long and inordinate delays in addition to the difculty in obtaining

    approvals for construction from the multi-headed government

    agencies, and they have stressed the need for a single-window

    clearance to cut through the red tape. This issue does not nd

    any mention in the bill. In addition, although the list of disclosures

    to be furnished by the promoter is fairly exhaustive, it could still

    be benchmarked against the best practices of the developed

    markets, bringing the real estate markets in India in line with

    markets where regulations have existed for some t ime, with

    relevant lessons to be learnt from their experience.

    The Land Acquisition Billseeks to redress the compensation

    and resettlement grievancesof landowners who have sold theirland to private enterprises. It also seeks to reduce the states

    role in acquiring land for private enterprises, while the states will

    continue to enjoy the same powers of land acquisition for public

    policy purposes.

    This bill, although noble in its intent to provide a comprehensive

    resettlement and rehabilitation package to displaced landowners,

    will likely have, by increasing the compensation burden on

    private enterprises, the dual impact of an increase in land

    prices and, as a result, in project pricing. With the clause for

    acquisition requiring the assent of 80% of affected parties,

    the process is bound to become more tedious for mid-level real

    estate players.

    This bill was conceived in the aftermath of the land asco that

    engulfed the Noida Extension corridor in Delhi NCR. Here,

    the government authorities were at fault, having acquired land

    for industrial purposes from landowners and then altering the

    land use to residential and selling it to private developers. Theresult was that the original landowners received compensation

    at lower rates commensurate to industrial land prices, while

    the state cornered the proceeds, which were much higher as

    the land use was changed to residential. The resultant court

    rulings were in favour of the landowners and a comprehensive

    resettlement package was arrived at. With the burden also thrust

    on developers, since their cost of land acquisition went up, they

    increased the prices of their residential projects, which adversely

    affected the rights of buyers. One of the reasons for the Bill to

    come about.

    The state of Haryana has a model of land acquisition that seeks

    to provide annuity payments to landowners who have parted with

    their land to private enterprises or Public Private Partnership projects.

    The need is to arrive at a more realistic model that is not skewed

    in favour of any stakeholder, but is more just and equitable.

    Land Pooling Policy in Delhi

    The Delhi Development Authority (DDA) approved this policy

    in the last week of July 2013. Realising the issues faced by thenodal body in acquiring land in the prime city, in terms of demand

    or higher compensation in the wake of increased land valuations,

    this policy has been executed. The DDA has created two

    categories- one for land pooling above 20 hectares and the other

    for land pooling between 2 and 20 hectares. Under this policy, the

    ground coverage has also been increased from 33% to 40%.

    Landowners would receive between 40-60% of the developed

    landback from the DDA in lieu of compensation and they can

    use that developed land in any way they desire. The DDA would

    use 60%of the pooled land (53% for residential purposes, 5%

    for commercial and 2% for public and semi-public use) and 48%

    (43% for residential, 3% for commercial and 2% for public and

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    16 Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR

    semi-public use) in the two categories, respectively. For housing for

    economically weaker sections (EWS), 50% of the pooled land wouldbe handed over to the DDA for building EWS units.

    This policy is likely to result in residential development projects across

    the prime city, which has an acute shortage of housing and where

    most of the housing needs are fullled by the DDA. This policy is likely

    to lead to an increase in private participation in housing development

    across the city.

    The Developer Switch in Asset Development

    Post-crisis, many developers switched to the residential sector due to

    the dual benets of the sectors self-liquidating nature as well as the

    inherent short-supply of housing in India. Another point of interest is

    how the focus of the major developers of commercial ofce space has

    undergone a gradual shift towards residential housing development

    projects.

    The current commercial stock levels of the top developers have

    low vacancy levels indicating that quality stock is limited. Also, a

    recovery of sorts is being seen in the commercial ofce space market.

    However, there are indications that suggest that focus on future ofce

    development will be limited. This is because, returns from residential

    sector development has shown a healthy rise for developers, whereascommercial rents have recovered only up to levels seen as of end-

    2009, staying at merely 53% of the peak values observed in 2007.

    These factors are likely come together to create a situation where the

    current occupier-friendly conditions in the ofce market are likely tour

    of the landlords.

    A comparison of the most vibrant ofce and residential markets of

    Gurgaon and Noida clearly bring out the points made above regarding

    movement of ofce rents against residential prices.

    A point that needs to be highlighted is that from 2009 until today, whiletotal new supply of IT ofce space in Gurgaon and Noida has been

    27 million sq ft, the corresponding launched residential supply totals

    an extremely high 490 million sq ft across the residential markets of

    Gurgaon and Noida. This clearly highlights the point that developers

    across all levels have shown a bias towards residential projects

    that allow them a quick turnaround in their liquidity cycle while also

    providing higher returns on average compared to rent returns from

    commercial ofce projects.

    Ofce Rents vs Residential Capital Values

    160

    140

    120

    100

    80

    60

    40

    20

    02008 2010 20122009 2011 2013F

    RVvsCVIndex

    Gurgaon Ofce Gurgaon Residential Noida ResidentialNoida Ofce

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    Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR 17

    Expanding the Delhi NCR Boundaries

    Delhi NCR is the largest urban agglomeration in India and the second

    largest in the world. This sub-market has an independent DelhiNCR Planning Board, which was constituted to channel the ow and

    direction of economic growth and development along more balanced

    and spatially orientated paths. The body creates its own functional

    plans for the various constituent sub-markets of Delhi NCR and

    ensures implementation at state level, keeping in mind the overall

    Regional Plan.

    As the existing suburban sprawls of Gurgaon, Noida and Ghaziabad

    are close to exhausting their development potential, we take a look at

    ve hotspots that are likely to emerge as the nerve centres of future

    growth planning and real estate development.

    Sohna

    Along with the recent Gurgaon Master Plan 2031, the Haryana

    Government also notied the 2031 Master Plan for Sohna. The town

    is located 24 km from Gurgaon and is currently connected by the

    well-known Sohna Road. Under the new master plan, an area of 6,110

    hectares has been earmarked for future development. According to

    the plan, the population of this town is expected to see an explosive

    half-decadal growth rate of 70-76% until 2031. Of the development

    proposed in the 2031 plan, more than 20 new sectors have been

    planned and more than 28% of the land area has been set aside

    for residential development. A host of factors is likely to contribute

    towards this sub-market being a potential investment sub-market.

    Already, a host of developers has undertaken land consolidation/

    acquisition and obtained development licences, while a few have

    already launched projects. This real estate market is likely to emerge

    as an affordable housing hub with built-up residential projects likely to

    be priced at the INR 4,000 to INR 5,500 per sq ft level. Serviced plotprices are nearly one-third of those in Gurgaon. This sub-market is

    likely to see a host of township projects, with developers holding land

    parcels under commercial licence also considering a conversion of

    land usage to residential. Land valuations following notication of the

    master plan have risen to between INR 3.5 crores and INR 4.5 crores

    per acre for non-licenced land parcels, a jump of more than 120%.

    In addition, a host of infrastructure initiatives is likely to enhance the

    attractiveness of this sub-market and create pull factors for demand.

    This sub-market is expected to enjoy enhanced connectivity by two

    cloverleaf junctions on the proposed KMP Expressway. Along withthis, the government has planned an Orbital Rail Corridor along the

    KMP Expressway, while also earmarking 1,500 acres for an Industrial

    Model Township. The Dedicated Freight Corridor linking Delhi to

    Mumbai is also likely to be a growth magnet for development.

    Neemrana

    Neemrana is one of the fastest growing industrial centres in north

    India. It is located strategically on NH-8 and in proximity to other

    industrial sub-markets such as Bhiwadi, Bawal, Khushkhera and

    Tapukhera. Situated in Rajasthan and part of Delhi NCR, this sub-market has attracted heavy industrial investment from Japanese

    manufacturing rms. Currently, a 1,200-acre Japanese Zone is 70%

    operational, with heavy investment in manufacturing facilities by rms

    such as Daikin, Mitsui Chemicals, Nissan, Nippon and NYK Logistics.

    The Japan External Trade Organization and the Export Promotion

    Industrial Park, spread over 3,500 acres, developed by the Rajasthan

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    18 Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR

    State Industrial Development and Investment Corporation (RIICO)

    in several phases, are other industrial zones that have led to this

    sub-markets emergence as a major industrial hub. Neemrana is alsopart of the Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor Phase I development and

    land acquisition for it is already complete. Its strategic location and

    strong industrial linkages and prospects of employment generation

    have led to it becoming a real estate investment hotspot. With

    non-licenced land located on NH-8 currently priced at 1.2 crores per

    acre, developers have already acquired large land holdings, while

    others are actively seeking land parcels. Some residential projects

    by Aashiyana, Eldeco and Anant Raj have already been launched.

    This sub-market has tremendous potential for integrated township

    projects and low-cost, affordable housing. There is likely to beinherent demand from the large workforce already working here,

    with more likely to be added over the course of the next few years.

    The government of Rajasthan has already notied the 2031 Master

    Plan for the Shahjahanpur-Neemrana-Behror Urban Complex with a

    futuristic 2041 Master Plan in the draft stage. Further infrastructural

    initiatives are also likely to aid the emergence of this town as a major

    real estate growth node. There are plans to set up a cargo airport, with

    industrial rms from Korea and Taiwan also showing interest in setting

    up manufacturing facilities. In fact, a Korean Dedicated Manufacturing

    Zone has already been proposed to be set up through an agreementbetween RIICO and the Korean rms nodal body, Kotra. Neemrana

    is also a strategic stopover in the Delhi Mumbai Freight Corridor.

    There are also plans to set up a Global City spread over 40,000 acres

    containing smaller cluster cities centred around electronics, education,

    entertainment and logistics. With industrial growth acting as a pull

    factor, real estate development across the ofce, retail and residential

    asset classes is likely to nd greater traction going forward.

    Yamuna Expressway

    The Yamuna Expressway offers large land parcels, and with it

    becoming operational it is expected to act as a magnet for real

    estate development projects. The expressway is 165 km long, and

    with land availability in Noida becoming limited, this stretch will act

    as the next node for large-scale developments such as integrated

    townships and logistics & warehousing hubs. There is now a separate

    Yamuna Expressway Authority that is responsible for creating and

    implementing growth plans for this sub-market. More than 33,000

    hectares has been notied for development along the expressway,

    of which the authority has acquired 11,200 hectares up to Agra.

    Long-term planning for infrastructure development in the form of

    an independent Yamuna Power Corporation Limited has been

    established, which will set up a 2,000 MW power plant. According to

    the 2021 Master Plan, 20% of land has been allocated for residential

    development and 28% for industrial zones, with a substantial 21% set

    aside for the green belt.

    The proposed Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor is expected to pass

    through Dadri and will boost the development of warehousing and

    Special Development Zones along both sides of the expressway.

    With connectivity to Agra, which is a major tourist spot that is being

    enhanced, and travel time reduced considerably, the YamunaExpressway has already attracted the interest of major developers,

    who have announced township and residential projects. With the

    operational Formula 1 track and upcoming facilities like the Jaypee

    Sports City project and Night Safari, it will be the source of the next

    wave of development, which will expand the city boundaries.

    Land parcels are available at much lower prices compared to other

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    Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR 19

    parts of the Delhi NCR, with the current price for non-licenced land

    being from INR 1 crores to INR 5 crores per acre, depending upon

    location. While built-up apartment prices are in the range of INR 2,200to INR 3,500 per sq ft, plots are priced at INR 14,000 to INR 32,000

    per sq ft, one of the lowest in the sub-market.

    A sub-market with low prices and upcoming projects at low price-

    points provides enough scope for future developments and investment

    in infrastructure projects to create a well-developed hub, which

    equals a good investment option. Residential apartment prices

    have remained largely stagnant since the expressway completion,

    with projects further down this stretch launched at lower prices. The

    residential plot prices have remained relatively stable over the past

    one year, after showing an initial 35-40% appreciation.

    For end users, low price points with projects by major developers

    present an equally viable opportunity. In addition, with ancillary

    developments such as Jaypee Sports City and Gautam Buddha

    University coming up along with other social infrastructure projects,

    this sub-market is expected to turn into a large-scale residential hub

    with good amenities.

    NH-24

    Highways are the nodes along which a city spreads and with theproposed upgrade and widening of NH-24, this stretch should offer

    good infrastructure as well as enhanced connectivity to the main

    city. This stretch lies close to the existing residential sub-market of

    Indirapuram, which is quite densely populated and thus has growth

    potential. The main growth node is the stretch of highway that begins

    around 10-15 km beyond Indirapuram. This stretch was the rst

    affordable housing hub in the Delhi NCR with the launch of Crossings

    Republik, where a host of developers offered apartment units at low

    cost to the buyers.

    NH-24 is an important road linkage between Delhi, Ghaziabad and

    Noida. The proximity to the established residential and industrial

    corridors of Noida and Ghaziabad and accessibility to Delhi have been

    the major factors that have led to real estate developers showing

    interest here. However, currently the interest is focused towards

    housing projects only. Currently, pricing on the NH-24 stretch, which

    is of interest to developers, is in the range of INR 4 crores to INR 5

    crores per acre for non-licenced land parcels. Developers are keen to

    look at affordable housing projects or large-scale township projects,

    which nd good demand in the predominantly end-user driven market

    at attractive price points. This sub-market is expected to be the game

    changer in terms of affordable housing prices, which are likely to be

    the lowest amongst all established suburban centres in the Delhi NCR.

    The stretch offers affordable housing in the price range of INR 2,600

    to INR 3,100 per sq ft. Connectivity along this stretch is likely to

    improve and with its proximity to Noida, Ghaziabad is expected to

    see healthy interest from buyers/investors. Projects along NH-24 arecurrently available at one of the lowest price points in the Delhi NCR

    residential market. In addition, developers such as SARE and Wave

    are creating township projects that have a varied range of residential

    formats at different price points. Other large projects by developers

    such as Landcraft, SARE and Wave are also witnessing good interest

    from buyers/investors. The Wave Hi-Tech City township is spread

    over 4,500 acres and more such projects are expected, with a few

    prominent developers actively sourcing land options. Other prominent

    developers who have launched large township projects include

    Landcraft, SARE, Antriksh and Mahagun. Apartment prices here areamong the lowest in the main suburban residential markets of the

    Delhi NCR.

    Proposed infrastructure initiatives have to keep pace with the

    development of this sub-market to achieve its potential. There are

    plans to decongest this stretch to enable it to achieve its optimum

    potential. The Uttar Pradesh Government has proposed adding ve

    underpasses on the 28-km stretch from Dasna to Indirapuram and

    making this stretch signal-free. Widening of the highway to six lanes

    is being proposed due to trafc congestion. Widening of the stretch

    between Ghaziabad and Indirapuram towards the Delhi border to

    eight lanes is also proposed. There is a proposal for a Metro station

    at Indirapuram, but no concrete timelines are available. A connecting

    road from NH-24 to Greater Noida before the Indirapuram Crossing is

    also proposed and is likely to aid in reducing the trafc pressure on NH-24.

    New Zones under the Delhi Master Plan 2021

    To nd Delhi among the real estate hotspots is doubtful, as the

    prime city has had every possible square inch of urban land already

    developed. However, the northern and south-western extremitiesof the city have for some time now been the subject of discussion

    as being potential development growth corridors. A large portion

    of growth in Delhi has been undertaken by the DDA, especially in

    the housing sector. The shortage of housing notwithstanding, the

    prohibitive land prices and a lack of available land parcels were

    factors that limited private sector participation in the growth of the

    citys housing sector.

    The city of Delhi is the engine that drives the economic and growth

    story of entire Delhi NCR. Archaic development regulations were

    in part responsible for not allowing optimum utilisation of the land

    available within the city. The city has excellent infrastructure in terms

    of roads, power, water and connectivity through the Metro. The

    need to create a viable strategy for kick-starting the housing sector

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    20 Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR

    by involving private enterprises was nally realised when the Delhi

    Master Plan 2021 was proposed and later notied. It was clear that

    underutilising available land within the city boundaries had led to high

    property prices and created barriers to fullling the housing needs of a

    larger cross-section of society.

    The Delhi Master Plan 2021 has envisaged the creation of ve new

    zones - J, K, L, N and P - spread over 87,000 hectares. These zones,

    referred to as urban extensions, are expected to unlock 60,000

    hectares for development and redevelopment projects primarily

    focused towards the housing sector. The population in Delhi according

    to the 2021 plan is expected to grow to 2.36 crores over this period.

    The idea is to create ve sub-cities on the lines of Dwarka with

    inuence zones planned based on the mass transport system. To

    cater to the shortage of housing, the Floor Area Ratio (FAR) has been

    increased to 200 for group housing projects. The basic area details for

    the zones follow.

    Zone J comprises the sub-markets of Satbari and Mehrauli in south

    Delhi. This sub-market is likely to see high-end developments and

    land parcels sold off primarily as farmhouses. Existing farmhouses

    would be able to undergo redevelopment to form multi-dwelling units.

    Prices in this zone are in the range of INR 15 crores to INR 30 croresper acre. Zone K is sub-divided into K1 and K2. While K1 comprises

    the sub-market near the Najafgarh Drain, K2 comprises largely of

    existing developments in Dwarka. This entire sub-market is located

    close to the Dwarka sub-city. Few new sectors are likely to be added

    to Dwarka, where private participation is anticipated. These will be

    low density residential sub-markets. There is an increased focus on

    setting up SEZs in this sub-market.

    Zone L comprises the sub-market adjoining Dwarka and New

    Gurgaon, separated by the Najafgarh Drain. This zone has 37

    villages, which have been identied to be in the residential zone.More than 11,000 hectares is available for development and already

    large private developers such as DLF, Emaar MGF and Ireo have

    acquired substantial land holdings here. This zone has the potential

    to provide for more than 500,000 residential units and townhouses/

    farmhouses. Land prices in this sub-market are in the range of INR 4

    crores to INR 4.5 crores per acre. At current residential Floor Space

    Index prices, built-up apartments are likely to be priced between

    INR 3,500 and INR 5,000 per sq ft, which is likely to provide a good

    investment opportunity. This zone is also being actively sought

    for creating townhouses in a gated community format with price

    expectations of INR 4 crores and more. This sub-market is expected

    to see its population grow to over three million over the master plan

    period. Its proximity to Gurgaon and accessibility through the Dwarka-

    Gurgaon Expressway provides an added advantage. However, actual

    infrastructure development in this sub-market would provide an actual

    barometer of investment potential in this zone.

    Zone N is located close to Rohini in north-west Delhi. It comprises

    over 11,000 hectares, of which nearly 49% is zoned for residential

    use. According to development norms, this zone should additionally

    provide for a further ve million to six million dwelling units across both

    apartments and plotted developments. With expectations of no height

    restrictions in this zone, the FAR is likely to be higher and hence the

    cost of development is likely to be lower. Land prices are currently

    in the range of INR 2 crores to INR 4 crores per acre and built-up

    apartments should be priced anywhere between INR 4,500 and

    INR 6,000 per sq ft. This zone enjoys proximity to the existing Metro

    connectivity to Rohini and accessibility through the proposed Urban

    Extension Roads 1 and 2.

    Zone P is sub-divided into P1 and P2 and is located along both

    sides of the NH-1, comprising the Narela sub-city. More than 7,000

    hectares is available for development in this zone. The government

    aims to create around 20,000 residential units by itself in Phase I.

    There is also a growing trend of smaller, cooperative housing/welfare

    societies acquiring smaller land parcels of 2-3 acres for creating

    group housing under the cooperative housing schemes. Land pricesare in the range of INR 2 crores to INR 3 crores per acre. Residential

    apartment prices are in the range of INR 2,400 to INR 2,500 per sq ft.

    The chief attraction of this sub-market is the industrial activity, with a

    major portion already made operational by the Delhi State Industrial

    Corporation. Other proposed utilities and the proposed development

    of an Integrated Freight Corridor are likely to aid employment

    generation and in turn generate demand for housing by the industrial

    workforce in this sub-market.

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    Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR 21

    Emerging Trends on Urbanisation and Integrated Townships

    peripheries are usually low on infrastructure support, and the

    development of integrated townships needs such support to ourish.

    Public infrastructure development usually lags any sub-markets

    development. This means that the infrastructure does not keep pace

    with development and it is usually planned reactively rather than being

    forward looking.

    Integrated townships seek to house a large number of families as

    well as commercial establishments. Infrastructure is pivotal to making

    such developments liveable. Most big Indian cities are struggling with

    issues of power, water and drainage, not to mention the slow upgrade

    of the road network. In such a scenario, integrated townships are likelyto struggle with a lack of support infrastructure. Although the internal

    infrastructure such as roads, drainage and water connections as

    well as social infrastructure has to be provided by the developer, the

    external linkage to the state infrastructure backbone is imperative.

    Over the next 2-5 years, most metropolises and satellite cities are

    likely to see more launches of integrated township projects. Tier II

    cities and state capitals, which see the population from the interior

    gravitating towards them, are also likely to see the launch of such

    projects. It is difcult to give an exact number, but a few hundred such

    projects are likely to be in different stages of development over the

    next ve-year period. To substantiate further this trend, it is pertinent

    to note that the Delhi NCR has more than 50 such township projects

    under construction or in the proposed/planning stage. Although

    there are no fully operational projects in the Delhi NCR, unlike the

    City Population Density vs Population and Population growth rate

    35,000

    30,000

    25,000

    20,000

    15,000

    10,000

    5,000

    00 1510 25205 35 4030

    PopulationDensity

    Population (Million)

    Mumbai2.3

    Delhi3.5

    New York

    0.7

    Tokyo0.34

    Beijing0.2

    Density, (people per sqKm)

    1(Economic Survey, 2010-2011, pp 283-284), 2(Economic Survey, 2010-2011, pp 283-284)

    With a land area one-third the size of the US, India harbours nearly

    three times the population. Unsurprisingly, Indian cities are not only

    the most populous but also among the densest urban agglomerations

    of the world, which pose unique challenges to the development of

    infrastructure and real estate.

    Indias urban population is underestimated, partly because of

    denitional reasons, and is expected1to approach some 45% of the

    population compared to 30% (295 million) in 2009. This is equivalent

    to building one additional Greater Mumbai or Greater Delhi every year.

    Growth is taking place in the peripheries of the major agglomerations

    of Greater Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore and Hyderabad.

    Cities may hold the key to our future. India is entering what we term

    the Three Great Transformations: (1) growth of cities; (2) jobs

    to meet the rising aspirations of a young adult population; and (3)

    doubling of household incomes. Urbanisation is pulling people out of

    rural poverty. However, the process is a knife-edge: failure will lead to

    chaotic cities, unfullled aspirations and slower growth2.

    New master plans in all major cities seek to expand the boundaries

    of the urban sprawl. In such a scenario, newer areas would benet

    if integrated township developments were undertaken, as theywould provide a more holistic living environment and prevent the

    mushrooming of unplanned urban villages.

    Integrated townships, because of their huge land requirements,

    need to be outside the main urban areas of any city. The citys

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    22 Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR

    Magarpatta City township in Pune, there are many that are likely

    to become operational over the next few years.

    With the focus of integrated townships on creating affordable

    housing and infrastructural development, such townships are

    prime candidates for the granting of infrastructure status. This

    would provide access to cheaper and more established sources of

    funds while also providing the tax benets required for developers

    to look at this model of development.

    The government has already opened the doors for External

    Commercial Borrowings in integrated township development.

    This provides access to cheap sources of nance and has had a

    positive impact on this form of development.

    We are observing an increasing trend of developers looking at

    such large, integrated projects, especially in the growth corridors

    and emerging development hotspots in the Delhi NCR. Positive

    trends surrounding integrated townships, a lack of residential

    density in fast-growing cities (such as Gurgaon) and state

    governments promoting integrated township projects by proposing

    the easing of development norms have led to many developers

    entering the fray of integrated township development. Major

    players, such as DLF, Unitech, Vatika, Ansal API and IREO,are already in various stages of developing township projects.

    In Noida, developers such as Logix and the Jaypee Group are

    developing golf-centric townships, in effect offering a value-

    added option for customers. Other players, such as Parsvnath,

    Supertech, Sobha Developers, Emaar MGF, BPTP and the

    Wave Group, have also announced large and multiple integrated

    township projects in the Delhi NCR.

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    Emerging corridors of Delhi NCR 23

    Authors

    Suvishesh Valsan

    Assistant Vice President, Research

    [email protected]

    +91 22 3985 1309

    Suvishesh joined Jones Lang LaSalle India in 2013 and is responsible for driving Thought Leadership and

    Research publications, been part of the Research & Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS) team. Based

    in Mumbai, he also contributes to bespoke research publications for all sectors of the real estate. In his

    over 5 years career prior to joining Jones Lang LaSalle, he has served in various nancial institutions and

    consultancy research rms, specialising in macroeconomics, asset allocation strategy and business research.

    Suvishesh holds a Masters degree in Economics from the Gokhale Institute of Politics & Economics, Pune.

    Rohan Sharma

    Assistant Vice President, Research and REIS

    [email protected]

    +91 124 4605 015

    Rohan Sharma manages the Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS) for Delhi-NCR. Based out of Gurgaon,

    he is responsible for bespoke research assignments and contributes towards topical whitepapers and property

    market updates including sector analysis and market forecasts. He also actively contributes towards media

    articles on local real estate development, city master plans and policy analysis. He joined Jones Lang LaSalleIndia in December 2010 and has had over four years of prior real estate experience across the commercial

    leasing and investments domains in previous rms. Rohan holds a Bachelors degree in Engineering and a

    Master of Finance and Control degree from Delhi University.

    Ashutosh Limaye

    Head - Research and REIS

    [email protected]+91 22 3307 1500

    Ashutosh Limaye is responsible for overseeing research and REIS business of JLL. He is also responsible for

    effective business development, selection, grooming and growth of professionals in the research division. He

    has 14 years of experience, including one and half years of post graduation in planning with specialization

    in Urban Planning. His contributions include real estate market intelligence and forecasting, formulations of

    economic and physical plans, assessments of policies, legislations and regulatory mechanisms for delivery of

    infrastructure services, study of urban governance initiatives for urban management programmes, identication

    of appropriate modes of private sector participation in infrastructure delivery for large-scale infrastructure and

    township projects in the urban context, nancial cost-benet analyses, project formulation and appraisals, and

    urban land management.

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    About Jones Lang LaSalleJones Lang LaSalle (NYSE:JLL) is a professional services and investment management rm offering specialized real estate services toclients seeking increased value by owning, occupying and investing in real estate. With annual revenue of $3.9 billion, Jones Lang LaSalleoperates in 70 countries from more than 1,000 locations worldwide. On behalf of its clients, the rm provides management and real estateoutsourcing services to a property portfolio of 2.6 billion square feet and completed $63 billion in sales, acquisitions and nance transactionsin 2012. Its investment management business, LaSalle Investment Management, has $47.7 billion of real estate assets under management.

    Jones Lang LaSalle has over 50 years of experience in Asia Pacic, with over 25,400 employees operating in 76 ofces in 14 countriesacross the region. The rm was named Best Property Consultancy in nine Asia Pacic countries at the International Property Awards Asia

    Pacic 2012, in association with HSBC, and was named the number one real estate advisory rm in Asia Pacic in the Euromoney RealEstate Awards 2012.

    For further information, please visit our website, www.ap.joneslanglasalle.com

    About Jones Lang LaSalle IndiaJones Lang LaSalle is Indias premier and largest professional services rm specializing in real estate. With an extensive geographic footprintacross 11 cities (Ahmedabad, Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Kochi, Chandigarh and Coimbatore) and staffstrength of over 6100, the rm provides investors, developers, local corporates and multinational companies with a comprehensive range ofservices including research, analytics, consultancy, transactions, project and development services, integrated facility management, propertyand asset management, sustainability, industrial, capital markets, residential, hotels, health care, senior living, education and retail advisory.The rm was named the Best Property Consultancy in India (5 Star Winner) at the International Property Awards - Asia Pacic for 2012-13.

    For further information, please visit www.joneslanglasalle.co.in

    COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be published without prior written permission from Jones Lang LaSalle. The information in this

    Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS) is a subscription based research service designed to provide you with cutting edgeinsights into diverse and challenging real estate markets through collation, analysis and forecasts of property market indicators andtrends across all major markets across various real estate asset classes - ofce, retail, residential.

    REIS empowers you with consistent and complete market data and analyses for all real estate indicators by specic micro markets.It is supplemented by value added services including client briengs, presentations and rapid market updates.

    For more details, contact, Ashutosh Limaye- [email protected]

    Indian Chamber of Commerce (ICC)

    Founded in 1925, Indian Chamber of Commerce (ICC) is the leading and only National Chamber of Commerce operating from Kolkata, andone of the most pro-active and forward-looking Chambers in the country today. Its membership spans some of the most prominent and majorindustrial groups in India. ICC is the founder member of FICCI, the apex body of business and industry in India. ICCs forte is its ability toanticipate the needs of the future, respond to challenges, and prepare the stakeholders in the economy to benet from these changes andopportunities. Set up by a group of pioneering industrialists led by Mr. G D Birla, the Indian Chamber of Commerce was closely associatedwith the Indian Freedom Movement, as the rst organised voice of indigenous Indian Industry. Currently, Mr. Shrivardhan Goenka is leadingthe Chamber as its President.

    ICCs North-East Initiative has gained a new momentum and dynamism over the last few years, and the Chamber has been hugely

    successful in spreading awareness about the great economic potential of the North-East at national and international levels. Trade &Investment shows on North-East in countries like Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam have created new vistas of economic co-operationbetween the North-East of India and South-East Asia.