emd 2015-5 geothermal report

EMD 2015 Semi-Annual Report Geothermal Energy of 9

Geothermal Energy Committee

2015 EMD Geothermal Energy Committee Semi-‐Annual Report November 12, 2015

Geothermal worldwide: Green shading indicates countries with installed geothermal power and/or developing projects.

Source GEA1

Paul Morgan, Chair

1 Geothermal Energy Association, 2015, The International Market At a Glance, http://geo-energy.org/reports/2015/Int'lMarketataGlanceMay2015Final5_14_15.pdf, last accessed 2015-11-11.


Introduction The 2015 EMD Geothermal Energy Committee Annual Report includes the most recently released compilation of global geothermal installed power and developing projects as these reports are generally released in the spring. Installed capacity at the end of 2014 was 12.8 GW with an additional 2 GW expected to come online in the next 3-4 years. The Geothermal Energy Association predicts that the global market will reach between 14.5 and 17.6 GW by 2020 (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Growth in total international geothermal power nameplate2 capacity. Planned capacity

additions, pilot plants, and utility-scale geothermal plants built in the first half of the 20th century and then decommissioned are not included in the above time series. Source: Geothermal Energy Association, 2015 Annual U.S. & Global Geothermal Power Production Report, Figure 1, 21 pp. February 2015; http://geo-energy.org/reports/2015/2015%20Annual%20US%20%20Global%20Geothermal%20Power%20Production%20Report%20Draft%20final.pdf (Accessed 2015-5-21).

For the past two decades the global growth rate in geothermal capacity has been about 3.3% (3.29 + 0.36 %, s.d., n = 5), as calculated from the data shown in Table 1. However, for the past three years there has been a sustained 5% growth rate as the demand for clean energy continues to increase. Much of this growth is in countries around the Pacific Rim where geothermal energy is abundant but fossil fuel sources are sparse. A major disaster in the geothermal industry in the second half of 2015 has been the wild fires in California. The fire, since it sparked on September 12, burned 76,067 acres (about 120

2 Nameplate capacity is the rating of the generators in a power plant and does not include power used internally in the system for well pumps and other operating systems. Net capacity is typically 10-‐15% less than nameplate capacity and is the power delivered to the grid.

http://geo-energy.org/reports/2015/2015 Annual US Global Geothermal Power Production Report Draft final.pdf




Table 1. Installed geothermal generating capacity by country for selected years from 1990 to 2013. Modified from http://www.geothermal-energy.org/publications_and_services/news/article/iga-signs-an-mou-with-unece.html. Last accessed 2015-11-11.

Country 1990 MWe

1995 MWe

2000 MWe

2005 MWe

2010 MWe

2013 MWe

Total 5,831.8 6,866.8 7,974.1 9,064.1 10,716.7 11,772.0

Argentina 0.7 0.6 0 0 0 0

Australia 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.0 3)

Austria 0 0 0 1.0 1.4 1.4 1)

China 19.2 28.8 29.2 28.0 24.0 27.0 3)

Costa Rica 0 55.0 142.5 163.0 166.0 207.1 2)

El Salvador 95.0 105.0 161.0 151.0 204.0 204.4 2)

Ethiopia 0 0 8.5 7.0 7.3 8.0 3)

France (Guadeloupe and Alsace)

4.2 4.2 4.2 15.0 16.0 17.0 1)

Germany 0 0 0.0 0.2 6.6 11.9 1)

Guatemala 0 33.4 33.4 33.0 52.0 48.0 2)

Iceland 44.6 50.0 170.0 322.0 575.0 664.4 1)

Indonesia 144.8 309.8 589.5 797.0 1,197.0 1,341.0 7)

Italy 545.0 631.7 785.0 790.0 843.0 875.5 1)

Japan 214.6 413.7 546.9 535.0 536.0 537.0 3)

Kenya 45.0 45.0 45.0 127.0 167.0 248.5 4)

Mexico 700.0 753.0 755.0 953.0 958.0 1,017.4 6)

New Zealand 283.2 286.0 437.0 435.0 628.0 842.6 8)

Nicaragua 35.0 70.0 70.0 77.0 88.0 149.5 2)

Papua New Guinea 0 0 0 39.0 56.0 56.0 3)

Philippines 891.0 1,227.0 1,909.0 1,931.0 1,904.0 1,848.0 5)

Portugal (Azores) 3.0 5.0 16.0 16.0 29.0 28.5 1)

Russia 11.0 11.0 23.0 79.0 82.0 81.9 1)

Thailand 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 3)

Turkey 20.6 20.4 20.4 20,4 82.0 166.6 1)

USA 2,774.6 2,816.7 2,228.0 2,544.0 3,093.0 3,389.0 3)

Average Annual Increase, % 3.5 3.2 2.7 3.6 3.3 9)

MWe = MW electricity. 1) Antics, M., R. Bertani and B. Sanner, 2013. Europe -‐ Historic Legacy. Lasting Future. Presentation at the GRC Annual Meeting, Las Vegas, Oct. 2013.

http://www.geothermal-energy.org/publications_and_services/news/article/iga-signs-an-mou-with-unece.html

http://www.geothermal-energy.org/publications_and_services/news/article/iga-signs-an-mou-with-unece.html


2) Cuéllar, G., 2013. Central America Region. Current Generation and Future plans. Presentation at the GRC Annual Meeting, Las Vegas, Sept. 2013 3) Matek, B., 2013. 2013 Geothermal Power: International Market Overview. Geothermal Energy Association, Sept. 2013 4) Mugo, A., 2013. Geothermal development in Kenya. Presentation at the GRC Annual Meeting. Las Vegas, Sept. 2013. 5) Ogena, M.S. and A. Fronda, 2013. Prolonged geothermal generation and opportunity in The Philippines. Presentation at the GRC Annual Meeting, Las Vegas, Sept. 2013. 6) Personal data by Luis Gutierrez-‐Negrin 7) Suryantini, 2013. Current status of estimates and classification of geothermal potential in Indonesia. Presentation in the IGA's Workshop, Essen, Germany, Nov. 2013. 8) Think Geoenergy Magazine, No. 1, Sept. 2013, p. 38, with data adjusted by Luis Gutierrez-‐Negrín 8) Calculated in this report. square miles, 310 km2) in Lake, Napa and Sonoma Counties. The Geysers geothermal field comprises 45 square miles along the Sonoma and Lake County line and is the largest complex of geothermal power plants in the world. In Sonoma County the fire damage 14 structures, including cooling towers, at the Geysers power generating facilities. Calpine is the largest operator in the Geysers with a normal delivery of 725 MW to the grid. By late September this production was reduced to 540 MW, a 28% reduction. Repairs are expected to be completed in six to twelve months. As there has been no significant change in reported data for geothermal power generation since the 2015 EMD Geothermal Energy Committee Annual Report, this report concentrates on geothermal direct-use and reports on the 2015 Annual Meeting of the Geothermal Resource Council. Geothermal direct-use is any use of the thermal energy of the Earth without converting the energy into a non-thermal form. There are 83 countries from which data for geothermal direct-use are available and growth, capacity, and use of direct-use geothermal have outpaced geothermal power generation for the past few decades. Depending on the use, geothermal direct-use may be used at almost any location without a localized geothermal resource. The average growth in global direct-use capacity from 1995 to 2015 has been 10.3 + 2.8 (n=4) MWt/year (MW thermal), calculated from data in Table 2. Direct-use is usually taken to include geothermal (ground-source or geoexchange) heat pumps, which use the Earth as buffer into which heat may be transferred or removed. Direct-Use Geothermal Energy Compared with any other form of energy geothermal direct-use has one of the highest efficiencies of any energy use because the energy is used directly whereas other forms of energy are converted into a different forms before use. The thermal efficiency of direct-use is 50% to ~70%, whereas that of generating electricity from geothermal energy is about 5% to 20%. If electricity is the end product of the energy conversion, then the efficiency is further decreased by transmission losses and in any inefficiencies of the equipment that converts the electricity to the form of energy for the final form of work to be performed. There are many processes for which thermal energy may not be used directly or for which the temperature of typical geothermal direct-use resources are insufficient. However, for any process using thermal energy in the temperature range of an available geothermal resource, direct-use is commonly the most economical, reliable, clean and renewable choice of energy source available.


Table 2. Summary of capacities for various categories of worldwide geothermal direct-use from 1995 to 2015. Capacities are given in MWt (MW thermal). Modified from Lund and Boyd (2015)3 Use 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Geothermal heat pumps 1,854 5,275 15,384 33,134 49,898 Space heating 2,579 3,263 4,366 5,394 7,556 Greenhouse heating 1,085 1,246 1,404 1,544 1,830 Aquaculture pond heating 1,097 605 616 653 695 Agriculture drying 67 74 157 125 161 Industrial Uses 544 474 484 533 610 Bathing & Swimming 1,085 3,957 5,401 6,700 9,140 Cooling/Snow Melting 115 114 371 368 360 Other 238 137 86 42 79 Total 8,664 15,145 28,269 48,493 70,329 Average annual increase, % 15.0 17.3 14.3 9.0

The 2015 worldwide geothermal direct-use applications, distributed by percentage of total energy capacity (MWt) are shown in Figure 2a. In Figure 2b are the applications plotted to show relative total energy used. In terms installed capacity, geothermal heat pumps dominate, accounting for more than two-thirds of the installed capacity (Figure 2a). Their primary energy consumption is electricity, however, as they are systems that move heat in and out of the Earth. In terms of energy used, heat pumps account for just over half of the worldwide direct-use energy budget (Figure 2b). Although they consume electricity, their net effect is a great savings over conventional heating and cooling systems. Figure 3 shows the same information as Figure 2 with the data for geothermal heat pumps removed. This figure shows the non-heat pump information more clearly than Figure 2. In addition, most of the applications can be seen to have capacities and energy uses that are similar in terms of percentages. The largest energy use, after geothermal heat pumps, is bathing and swimming, which is the historical use of thermal springs. At many locations, established spas and other thermal spring facilities prevent further development of the geothermal resource for direct-use because of concern that additional use would degrade the quality of the traditional use. Growth in geothermal direct-use is likely to continue to be dominated by the geothermal heat pump sector. A geothermal heat pump has two basic systems, the building system and the ground system. The building system includes the heat-pump unit and the heating/cooling distribution system. The distribution system may be forced air or under-floor piping, and may be adapted to use an existing distribution system. The primary difference is in operation. Unlike traditional systems that cycle on and off, heat pumps are designed to run in continuously the background at a low level, with an increased level of comfort. The ground system most commonly consists of vertical or horizontal loops in which a fluid (typically antifreeze) is 3 J. W. Lund and T. L. Boyd, 2015, Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2015 Worldwide Review, Proceedings World Geothermal Congress, Melbourne, Australia, 19-‐25 April 2015, 31 pp. https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/WGC/papers/WGC/2015/01000.pdf. Last Accessed 2015-‐11-‐11.


a.

b.

Figure 2. a. Various geothermal direct-use applications worldwide in 2015, distributed by percentage or total installed capacity (MWt). After Lund and Boyd (2015)3, Figure 3. b. Various geothermal direct-use applications worldwide in 2015, distributed by percentage of total energy used (TJ/yr). After Lund and Boyd (2015)3, Figure 4.

circulated for heat exchange with the ground. Alternative systems include placing the loop at the bottom of a pond or in a river where the water does not freeze in the winter, or pumping water to the heat pump and returning the water to the ground or discharging the water at the surface. Choice of which option depends on availability of land and water resources, and local


a.

b.

Figure 3. a. Various geothermal direct-use applications worldwide in 2015 without geothermal heat pumps, distributed by percentage or total installed capacity (MWt). After Lund and Boyd (2015)3, Figure 5. b. Various geothermal direct-use applications worldwide in 2015, distributed by percentage of total energy used (TJ/yr). After Lund and Boyd (2015)3, Figure 6.

regulations. Geothermal heat pumps may be installed in new construction or retrofitted into existing building. Installations are available for single family and multi-family dwellings, commercial buildings, schools, and government buildings. The Colorado State Capital has recently been retrofitted with geothermal heat pump heating and cooling.


2015 Geothermal Resources Council Meeting The 2015 Annual Meeting of the Geothermal Resources Council was held in Reno, Nevada, from September 20 to September 23, 2015. A total of 131 papers were presented under 21 subject headings (number of papers in each heading given in parentheses): Basin & Range (6); Country Update (4); Direct Use (9); Drilling (7); East African Rift (5); Enhanced Geothermal Systems (13); Exploration (9); Geochemistry (7); Geology (8); Geophysics (7); Injection (1); Oil & Gas (3); Play Fairways (14); Power Plant (15); Regulatory (3); Reservoir Engineering/Modeling (4); Resource Assessment (3); Resource Management (1); Scaling & Mineral Extraction (4); Sedimentary Basin (3); Tools (5). In the Country Update section, Lund et al (2015)4, reported very similar data for global geothermal power production to those reported in the 2015 EMD Geothermal Energy Committee Annual Report and reinforced the breakdown of uses of direct-use resources given above (Figures 2-5). Boyd et al. (2015)5 presented an update specific to the United States. They reported that annual growth in geothermal power production in the US over the past three years (ignoring the loss in production from the fires at the Geysers) was 3.6%. This growth was aided by the recent passing of the production tax credit by the federal government of 2.0 cents/kWh (kilowatt hour), and renewable portfolio standards in individual states requiring investments in renewable energy. The installed capacity of geothermal direct-use in the United States is 17,416 MWt, approximately five times the installed geothermal electricity generating capacity. Annual geothermal direct energy use is 75,862 TJ, or 21,074 GWh. As with the global energy use, the largest application of geothermal direct-use is geothermal heat pumps (88% of the energy use), static over the past five years with gains balancing losses. The energy savings from all geothermal energy use in the United States is about 11.2 million tonnes of equivalent fuel oil per year (74.7 million barrels) and reduces air pollution by almost 10.0 million tonnes of carbon and 28.0 million tonnes of CO2 annually compared to fuel oil (Boyd et al.4). Other sessions in the meeting presented papers giving reports and updates across the spectrum geothermal activities across the world. There were two regional sessions: 1) the US Basin and Range province, which is commonly included as a session because of the high level of exploration and development that has been taking place in this region during the past decade or so; and 2) the East African Rift, a rapidly developing zone for geothermal power, especially the Kenya rift. Three sessions were driven at least partially by funding initiatives from the US Department of Energy (DOE): 1) Enhanced Geothermal Systems (geothermal systems with induced or enhanced permeability) have been a topic of major funding from DOE since the 1970s and are currently the subject of a major funding initiative FORGE, Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy; 2) Play Fairways, a funding initiative in which several groups were funded to study specific areas in which to develop multi-parameter exploration techniques from which to locate additional geothermal resources, a method based on the philosophy of hydrocarbon play fairways exploration; and 3) Scaling and Mineral Extraction –

4 J. W. Lund, R. Bertani and T. L. Boyd, 2015, Worldwide geothermal energy utilization 2015, Geothermal Resources Council Transactions, v. 39, 79-‐91. 5 T. L. Boyd, A. Sifford and J. W. Lund, 2015, The united States of America Country Update 2015, Geothermal Resources Council Transactions, v. 39, 65-‐74.


DOE has recently funded a program to develop techniques to extract economic and strategic minerals from geothermal fluids.

Concluding Remarks Information concerning geothermal electricity generation are primarily released early in the year and there are no significant new data to report since the 2015 EMD Geothermal Energy Committee Annual Report. Data are reported on geothermal direct-use and indicate that direct-use capacity and annual energy use are several times the capacity and energy produced by geothermal power production. The largest application of geothermal direct use is geothermal heat pumps which is 55% of the direct-use capacity globally and 88% of the capacity in the United States. Information presented at the 2015 Annual Meeting of the Geothermal Resources Council was dominated by two geographic areas, the US Basin and Range province and the East African Rift zone, and three sessions were dominated by papers funded at least in part by the US Department of Energy, Enhanced Geothermal Systems, Play Fairways, and Scaling and Mineral Extraction. The low price of oil has competed with the desire to reduce carbon emissions in terms of expansion of geothermal use both in the domestic and international geothermal markets. There is continued growth in geothermal power in countries with geothermal power resources but limited hydrocarbon resources, such as island nations around the Pacific Rim. Growth in direct-use geothermal continues in the US and Iceland and in countries with both limited high-temperature geothermal resources, and hydrocarbon resources, such as Sweden and France. Geothermal is expected to continue to contribute to the global mix of clean, renewable energy sources. Its growth will depend on the balance of the energy market and concerns about the environment.

emd 2015-5 geothermal report

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