embedding risk in everything we do

92
Embedding Risk in Everything we do. Allan Schwartz Australian Maritime Safety Authority NATIONAL CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION 2014 Platinum Sponsor Silver Sponsor Bronze Sponsor Risk Manager of the Year Award Sponsor Conference and Exhibition Partners

Upload: risk-management-institution-of-australasia

Post on 02-Jul-2015

118 views

Category:

Leadership & Management


0 download

DESCRIPTION

Allan Schwartz , Australian Maritime Safety Authority

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Embedding Risk in Everything we do.Allan Schwartz

Australian Maritime Safety Authority

NATIONAL CONFERENCE &

EXHIBITION 2014

Platinum Sponsor

Silver

SponsorBronze Sponsor

Risk Manager of the Year Award Sponsor

Conference and Exhibition

Partners

Page 2: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Who is AMSA???

IWRAP Mk2

IALA’s Quantitative Risk Assessment

Model

Page 3: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Australian Maritime Safety Authority

http://www.amsa.gov.au/about-amsa/corporate-information/mission-and-vision/

Page 4: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

AMSA’s purpose

Is to:

► provide leadership in the development of safety and

environmental protection standards for responsible

operation of ships and safety to seafarers;

► monitor compliance with safety and environment

protection standards;

► respond to threats to the marine environment;

► provide systems that aid safe marine navigation; and

► rescue people in maritime and aviation distress

situations.

Page 6: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Townsville

Geraldton

Page 7: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?

Internal Organisational Risk Management

Comcover Awards for Excellence in Risk Management

Page 8: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

But why???

Page 9: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

External Risk

Response – the obvious one

• Search and Rescue

• Pollution Response

• Casualty/Incident Response

Page 10: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 11: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 12: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Dornier airborne SAR units

Page 13: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 14: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Pacific Adventurer

Page 15: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Pacific Adventurer

Page 16: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 17: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Other incidents

Page 18: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 19: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 20: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Ship banned from Australian ports

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority has today placed a three-month ban on Vega Auriga (IMO 9347786).

The Liberian-flagged, 9981gt container vessel now on its way to Auckland, New Zealand from Brisbane, Australia is prohibited from entering any

Australian port for three months.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) reported that the vessel had been detained three times since July 2013 for breaches of the Maritime

Labour Convention.

The breaches included improper payment of wages, inadequate living and working conditions and inadequate maintenance making the vessel

unseaworthy and substandard.

An AMSA spokesperson told IHS Maritime that the improper payment of wages were systemic, but would not divulge the amount. AMSA had notified

authorities in the next port of call.

“New Zealand is aware of the issues, as are all members of the Tokyo MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) on Port State Control,” he told IHS

Maritime.

General manager of AMSA’s Ship Safety Division Allan Schwartz stressed that ships trading with Australia must meet international standards.

“Vessels that do not meet such standards, including standards for the welfare and treatment of crew, pose an increased risk to seafarers, safe operations

and the marine environment,” he said in a release.

“Seafarer welfare is just as important as the proper maintenance of ship equipment, and an integral part of safe operations. A failure in either system

could lead to serious accidents.”

The ship’s management has been contacted for comment.

Page 21: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

What if?

Page 22: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 23: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 24: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Prevention – the less obvious one

Page 25: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Marine Environment -Emergency Towage

► minimum level of emergency towage

around coast for incident management

► three tiers:

- Level 1: dedicated ETV (tug) in

northern Great Barrier Reef & Torres

Strait

- Level 2: contracted capability in

strategic locations

- Level 3: vessels of opportunity

Page 26: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

National Risk Assessment (Frequency)

1999 Risk Assessment 2011Risk Assessment

Page 27: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

National Risk assessment (Environment)

Environmental Sensitivity Environmental Risk Index

Page 28: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Risk Assessment – Future Trends

o Increase of 79% in total national port

traffic

o Increase of 81% in total national traffic

o Small commercial vessels assumed to

remain at present levels

o Offshore drilling assumed to remain at

current levels

o Offshore oil production to reduce by

89%

o Condensate production to increase by

73% (overall decline by 35%)

o Shore based oil consumption to

increase by 14%

Source 2011 2020

Tonnes/

year

% Tonnes

/year

%

Trading

ships at sea

212 22.3 387 32.2

Trading

ships in

port

174 18.3 337 28.1

Small

commercial

vessels

2 .2 2 .2

Offshore

production

310 32.7 217 18.1

Offshore

drilling

209 22 209 17.4

Shore-

based

42 4.5 48 4

Page 29: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 30: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 31: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Navigation Safety

Page 32: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 33: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Traffic Routeing Measures

Page 34: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 35: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 36: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Craft Tracking

GBR – ReefVTS

Remainder - AMSA

Page 37: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Craft Tracking

Page 38: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Under Keel Clearance

Page 39: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 40: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

The commodities

boom…

Page 41: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

For Bulk Carriers

=100 * EXP(-4 + ship age + time since previous inspection + (0.587 * coefficient if new) + (0.4536 * LN(1 + number of deficiencies at previous inspection)) + (0.354 * 1, if not inspected previously) + (-0.2212 * LN(Gross tonnage)) + Flag State coefficient) / (1 + EXP(-4 + ship age + time since previous inspection + (0.587 * coefficient if new) + (0.4536 * LN(1 + number of deficiencies at previous inspection)) + (0.354 * 1, if not inspected previously) + (-0.2212 * LN(Gross tonnage)) + Flag State coefficient))

For Other Ship Types

=100 * EXP(-3.07 + ship age + time since previous inspection + (0.00958 * time since last special survey) + (0.086 * coefficient if new) + (0.326 * LN(1 + number of deficiencies at previous inspection)) + (0.444 * coefficient if not previously inspected) + (-0.2054 * LN(gross tonnage)) + ship type coefficient + Flag State coefficient + RO coefficient) / (1 + EXP(-3.07 + ship age + time since previous inspection + (0.00958 * time since last special survey) + (0.086 * coefficient if new) + (0.326 * LN(1 + number of deficiencies at previous inspection)) + (0.444 * coefficient if not previously inspected) + (-0.2054 * LN(gross tonnage)) + ship type coefficient + Flag State coefficient + RO coefficient))

LN indicates natural logarithms. EXP = exponential.

Inspections

Page 42: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 43: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Current AIS vessel

tracks in Australia

Page 44: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Projected Traffic in

2015

Page 45: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Projected Traffic in

2020

Page 46: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Projected Traffic in

2025

Page 47: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Projected Traffic in

2030

Page 48: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Ports in the North West

Page 49: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Petroleum – Exploration & Production leases

Production & exploration

leases off shore (2009)

Page 50: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Marine Parks – Existing & Proposed

Existing & Proposed

Marine Parks

Page 51: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 52: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

The Search for Malaysia Airlines MH370

AMSA Experience

Page 53: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

B777-200ER 9M-MRO

Page 54: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Source: JIT/Google Earth, ATSB Report.

Flight Path derived from RADAR data.

Page 55: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 56: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Source: Inmarsat, ATSB website.

Page 57: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

MH370 Handshakes

Source: ATSB

Page 58: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Source: Satellite Comms Working Group, ATSB Report.

Page 59: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Example of one comparison against actual flight

MH021 7 March 2014

Red path = predicted path; Yellow track = actual aircraft track

Source: Satellite Working Group, ATSB Report.

Page 60: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Possible southern final positions S1-S3 based on MH370 max range and time

Source: JIT/Google Earth, ATSB Report.

Page 61: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Possible final positions S4-S5 with 7th arc and max range cruise line

Source: JIT/Google Earth, ATSB Report.

Page 62: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Flight details - plan, fuel load, performance data

Emergency equipment - distress beacons, slide rafts, etc

B777 structural materials (what will float?)

Cargo Manifest (debris analysis)

Satellite imagery

Contrail analysis – satellite imagery

Weather and environmental – atmospheric and oceanographic

Underwater hydrophones

Logistics – search aircraft, vessels, personnel, equipment, shore-

based support, communications

Information: Many Sources – some examples

Page 63: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Plot of hydrophone acoustic event recorded

Magenta cross = most probable location of source; yellow area = uncertainty region

Source: Curtin University, ATSB Report.

Most Probable Location

Page 64: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Minimal data to calculate accurate splash point

No ELT detections

Last known position versus subsequent time flown to unknown location

Vast and changing search areas

Remote oceanic area, long distance offshore

Movement of search areas following JIT analysis – time to redeploy search

assets.

Elapsed time – impact on oceanic drift and debris dispersal

Tropical Cyclone influence on drift calculations and search

Search aircraft – available endurance

Availability of detailed description of cargo from manifest

Information on B777 components likely to float.

Some of the Search Challenges

Page 65: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Time for ships to reach aircraft sightings

Availability of ship-borne helicopters to investigate sightings

Sea pollution

Poor weather and search conditions on a number of days

Elapsed time between satellite imagery analysis and tasking aircraft/ships to

investigate possible objects

Multi-national civil/military coordination and communication

Sustainment of large logistical requirements

Media appetite. Social media useful.

Processing large amount of publicly submitted data online and crowd sourcing

satellite imagery.

Some of the Search Challenges

Page 66: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Supplement standard JRCC drift planning.

Purpose – to ensure international best methodology and

consensus drift modelling techniques applied to MH370 splash

point area

Search area – floating debris

“Reverse” drift – from floating debris location backwards

to estimated splash point.

Drift Planning Working Group

Page 67: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Maritime SAR and Oceanography experts:

AMSA

CSIRO – Marine and Atmospheric Research

Asia Pacific Applied Science Associates (APASA)

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Global Earth Modelling Systems (GEMS)

US Coast Guard

Multiple datasets/models

SLDMBs

Drift Planning Working Group

Page 68: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

• Zero Leeway model –

confirms actual

surface Total Water

Movement

• Provides sea water

temperature – varied

from 7 to 28oC

• SLDMB – Self Locating Datum Marker buoy

• MetOcean Product – GPS receiver and Iridium

transmitter – average life 21 days

• Can be deployed from aircraft or vessel

Page 69: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

SLDMBs

• 33 x SLDMB’s successfully

deployed to validate drift

modelling

• Comparisons run against all

three oceanic current data

sets used for modelling

Page 70: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 71: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Day 52 - Overall Drifted Probability Area

Page 72: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Day 52 – Drifted Probability Area Comparison – East Coast Australia

Page 73: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Day 52 – Drifted Probability Area Comparison - Europe

Page 74: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Day 52 – Drifted Probability Area Comparison – North America

Page 75: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Day 52 – Drifted Probability Area Comparison - China

Page 76: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Established 30th March.

Ensure the search being coordinated by AMSA and

ATSB is reinforced by strong liaison with all relevant

stakeholders, including families of passengers.

Staff seconded from relevant departments/agencies.

Originally located Perth. Moved to Canberra 9th May

2014.

JACC – Joint Agency Coordination Centre

Page 77: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Search Phase Transition – 28th April 2014

• Search for floating debris suspended

• Transition to intensified underwater search

• Search led by ATSB

• Overall investigation – Malaysian Government

Page 78: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

End of Search Phase – 28th April 2014

• 42 day search. 345 flight sorties. 3177 total flight hours.

• 4.7 million square km cumulative search area

• Search aircraft:

• Civil – Australia and NZ (10)

• Military – Australia (5), USA (2), China (2), New Zealand (2), Japan

(3), Malaysia (2), Republic of Korea (2)

• Search vessels:

• Civil – Merchant ships

• Military – Australia, China, USA, UK, Malaysia

Page 79: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 80: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 81: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Ocean Shield TPL search coverage 4-14 April 2014

Source: Phoenix International and ATSB Report.

Page 82: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Led by ATSB.

Further work continued to refine analysis of both flight and satellite data by

specialists from UK, USA and Australia.

Priority area determined approximately 60,000 km2

This area subject of surface search Day 21-26.

Bathymetry of ocean floor since mid-May. Contracted vessel and Chinese

military vessel.

Tender for specialist company capable of deep-water search for MH370.

Intensified underwater search planned to commence August 2014.

Expected to take 12 months.

Next search phase

Page 83: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 84: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

1st June 2009

Air France Airbus A330, Flight AF447

Rio de Janeiro to Paris

228 persons on board

Crashed in remote area, Atlantic Ocean

Investigation - French BEA (Bureau d'Enquêtes et

d'Analyses pour la sécurité de l'aviation civile)

Comparison with AF447

Page 85: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Comparison with AF447

AF447 MH370

Flight Planned Route Was on planned route when reported

missing.

Deviated significantly from planned route to

take up unknown route.

Last Known Position Was reporting by ACARS every 10 minutes.

ACARS failure messages from AF447 were

received by Air France including a Last

Known Position (LKP).

Was reporting by ACARS up till disappeared.

No further data other than satellite pings via

INMARSAT.

Speed Known = Mach 0.82 derived from ACARS

message information.

Unknown.

Page 86: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Comparison with AF447

AF447 MH370

Search Area Initial Search Area:

40NM (74KM) radius centred on Last Known

Position (LKP)

= 17,000 square KM.

Initial Australian Search Area:

693,170 square KM = 40 times larger than

AF447 initial search area.

Cumulative Australian search area total

18MAR to 28APR (last day search for

surface debris):

Almost 4.7 million square KM.

Search for Surface Debris 26 days.

This was based on no further bodies or

aircraft debris being found for the final 9

days of the search.

- Aircraft search operations ceased.

- Ship search operations ceased, except

for French Navy vessels which

remained conducting acoustic search

for the ULBs.

In Australian SRR = 42 days

Page 87: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Comparison with AF447

AF447 MH370

First Floating Debris Found Day 5 about 70KM from LKP.

NOTE – the BEA report states that this

(distance) considerably complicated the

search for the underwater wreckage.

Nil associated with MH370.

Floating Debris/Bodies Marine pollution contributed to confusion in

the early days of the search. Air searches

found lots of debris – it was difficult for air

crews to distinguish between marine

pollution and small debris that may have

been from AF447. It was not until ships

arrived in the area working with aircraft that

debris was able to be identified properly.

About 50 bodies were recovered by ships.

Same experience with marine pollution.

Datum Buoys deployed 9 33

Page 88: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Comparison with AF447

AF447 MH370

“Drift Committee” An expert working group of experts in SAR

drift, oceanography, meteorology, etc

attempted to estimate the crash location

through “reverse drift” calculations.

Various positions were calculated by

different agencies using different methods

and models with up to a 100KM variance.

Similar expert working group formed within

AMSA’s RCC Australia.

Nil surface debris located to allow “reverse

drift” calculation.

Satellite imagery No useful results.

Images from civil and military satellites were

used.

Aircraft flown to investigate objects

detected by satellite failed to identify debris

from AF447.

Similar experienced.

Page 89: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Comparison with AF447

AF447 MH370

Wreckage Location 6.5NM (12KM) from LKP.

Depth 3900 metres.

Wreckage found 2APR11 (671 days after AF447 missing) following detection by AUVs of a concentration of SONAR returns.

Wreckage spread over area of 10,000

square metres. Few large parts found.

2 further months spent recovering flight recorders and aircraft parts, mapping debris and recovering human remains.

Unknown.

Search area depth 3800 - 4800 metres.

Page 90: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Comparison with AF447

AF447 MH370

Cost of SAR Operation Estimated 80 million Euro

($118 million AUD)

TBA

Cost of Undersea

Operation

Estimated 31 million Euro

($46 million AUD)

TBA

Total Cost of SAR and

Undersea Operations

Estimated 111 million Euro

($164 million AUD)

TBA

Page 91: Embedding Risk in Everything we do
Page 92: Embedding Risk in Everything we do

Title of presentationPresented by Insert Name

Insert Company Details

NATIONAL CONFERENCE &

EXHIBITION 2014

Platinum Sponsor

Silver

SponsorBronze Sponsor

Risk Manager of the Year Award Sponsor

Conference and Exhibition

Partners