embedded decision analysis: systems design patterns
TRANSCRIPT
Systems Design Patterns for Embedded DA
Somik Raha
Ground Principle
Humans not replaced, but augmented
Purpose of Tool
Consultative DA Embedded DA
“Knobs for Nerds” Create custom models
to meet particular issues in the situation
!
“Lean Models” Train against common simple templates and
deploy
Bad idea to reuse models
Good idea to reuse models
User Interface
Consultative DA Embedded DA
“Control-focused” Manage/Edit/Analyze
!
“Role-focused” Multiple roles/views: • Decision-Makers • SMEs • Analysts
!Vignette from Finance
Director
User Interface
Consultative DA Embedded DA
“Control-focused” Manage/Edit/Analyze
!
“Role-focused” Multiple roles/views: • Decision-Makers • SMEs • Analysts
!Vignette from Finance
Director
Workflow
Consultative DA Embedded DA
Facilitated through an expert analyst
Real-time mediated by system
Send out requests for data, carefully review the data
received and plug into model for analysis.
Distributed work across roles and geographies.
System turns into a storehouse of useful
information.
Workflow
Consultative DA Embedded DA
Facilitated through an expert analyst
Real-time mediated by system
Quote: The executive team was able to trust our process because we could show them our numbers in real-time, and the
assumptions behind them.
Send out requests for data, carefully review the data
received and plug into model for analysis.
Distributed work across roles and geographies.
System turns into a storehouse of useful
information.
Integrity of Model
Consultative DA Embedded DA
Pedigree assured by analyst
Pedigree assured by system
Power tools need careful control Tracks who changed what and why
Integrity of Model
Consultative DA Embedded DA
Pedigree assured by analyst
Pedigree assured by system
Power tools need careful control Tracks who changed what and why
Integrity of Model
Consultative DA Embedded DA
Composite Context
Consultative DA Embedded DA
Decisions are one-off or unique.
Decisions are made in the context of a stream of similar
decisions. !
e.g. Other similar project decisions, or a portfolio of related
decisions
Composite Context
Embedded DA
Composite Context
Embedded DA
Composite Context
Embedded DA
In Summary
Consultative DA Embedded DA
Knobs for Nerds !
Facilitated through an expert analyst
!Pedigree assured by
analyst !
Decisions are one-off or unique
Lean Models !
Real-time mediated by system
!Pedigree assured by
system !
Decisions are made in the context of a stream
of similar decisions !