emarketer webinar: social marketing trends for 2016

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© 2015 eMarketer Inc. Made possible by Social Marketing Trends for 2016 Debra Aho Williamson Principal Analyst December 3, 2015

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Page 1: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Made possible by

Social Marketing Trends for 2016

Debra Aho Williamson

Principal Analyst

December 3, 2015

Page 2: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

#1 eMarketer report

in 2015

(based on client

downloads + views)

How do executives predict the future?

Page 3: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Agenda

Eight Predictions for 2016

– Video

– Ad Blocking

– Influencer Marketing

– Viewability

– Cross-Platform Targeting

– Buy Buttons

– Live Streaming

– Messaging Apps

2015 Recap: Social marketing usage and spending

Page 4: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

2015 Recap:

Social Marketing Usage

and Spending

Page 5: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

88% of US marketers use social networks for

marketing

Facebook and

Twitter

dominate, but

Instagram is

coming on

quickly

Page 6: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

US product and services companies are

increasing social marketing budgets

10.7%

Current

14.0%

Next 12 Months

Social Media % of

Marketing Budget

Source: Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, Aug. 2015

Page 7: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Social

networks will

take in 18% of

all US digital

ad spending in

2015 …

… and 1 in 5

digital ad

dollars in

2016

Page 8: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Just a few of the many major changes in the

social media landscape this year:

Instagram

opens up

to ads

Facebook gets

8 billion video

views per day

Buy buttons

emerge

Page 9: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

What’s in store for 2016?

Page 10: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Trend #1:

TV Ad Dollars Will Start to

Flow Toward Social

Page 11: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Four factors fueling this prediction:

#1: Social video’s

importance to advertisers

Stat: 60% of the social content

Arby’s creates is video, up from 25% in January

#2: Facebook

8 billion video views per day

(was 4 billion in April 2015)

Source: Arby’s, Oct. 2015 Source: Facebook, Nov. 2015

Page 12: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

#3: Dollars

moving from

TV to digital,

social

Page 13: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

#4: Facebook adds Target Rating Point (TRP)

buying

Common currency to plan and

buy across TV and social

Tools like this are helping

advertisers feel comfortable

increasing social video budgets

Image: Digitalart / Freedigitalphotos.net

Page 14: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

What it means for advertisers:

It’s time to measure TV effectiveness relative to social

– Compare TV results to social results, as well as the two together.

Don’t segregate social teams from video teams

– It also may not make sense to separate TV buyers from digital and

social buyers.

Social attribution will only get better, as TV lags

– Facebook and Twitter have tools to measure how ads drive offline

purchases. TV can’t compare.

Page 15: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Trend #2:

Social Properties Will

Need to Respond to Ad

Blocking

Page 16: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Social properties say they’re not affected, but in

fact, they’re concerned

Source: Facebook Form 10-Q, Nov. 2015

Page 17: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Most blockers

can’t block ads

in apps.

However, the ad

blockers are

getting smarter

Page 18: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Ad blocking is

related to the

larger issue of

internet user

privacy

Page 19: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

What it means for advertisers:

More relevance, less blocking: If consumers “are downloading

apps to remove ads from the experience that you’re producing, that’s a

pretty strong signal that the ads aren’t relevant.” —Matt Idema, Facebook

Go for utility over noise: “I think people are kind of tired of ads that

are just trying to grab their attention away from everything they are

doing.” —Ben Silbermann, Pinterest, in an Advertising Week 2015 presentation

Ad blocking makes earned media even more important: “The

opportunity for marketers in social is to live native. Provide editorial

content that’s timely and relevant into people’s feeds.” —Marshall Manson,

Ogilvy PR UK

Page 20: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Trend #3:

Influencer Marketing Will

Go Mainstream

Page 21: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Only 14% of social media professionals

worldwide don’t plan to use influencer marketing

Source: Altimeter Group, July 2015

Page 22: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

It’s a way to get around ad avoidance

“We really increased our influencer

program in 2015, and going into 2016 we are

likely to increase it even more. I think you’ll see

more brands doing that as consumers

become adept at automatically blocking out ads

and as platforms continue to increase the number

of ads they deliver.” —Nick Bianchi, AT&T

Page 23: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Influencers are important to the youth audience

US internet users who would be more interested in a brand if it

partnered with internet celebrities

Source: Trendera, Oct. 2015

Page 24: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

What it means for advertisers:

Allocate budget for influencer marketing: The number of

influencer networks is burgeoning, and some, such as the Vine talent

agency Niche, now owned by Twitter, are being acquired by the major

social platforms.

Aim for authenticity: “If people are using influencers, or if they’re

promoting content that’s not heavily produced and looks like raw content,

people are more likely to pay attention to it and more likely to engage

with it.” —Amir Zonozi, Zoomph

Choose partners carefully: While anyone can be an influencer,

there is a limited supply of people who have the audience size and

creative chops to work with major brands.

Page 25: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Trend #4:

The Viewability Debate

Will Drag On

Page 26: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Facebook and Twitter differ on definitions

Sources: Facebook, Twitter

Page 27: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

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Mobile viewability standards have yet to come

out

(But even with standards, there’s not likely to be consensus)

Image: Chaiwat/Freedigitalphotos.net

Page 28: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

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Until there’s agreement, it will come down to

dollars

“We’re introducing a

new buying option

that allows advertisers

to purchase 100%

in-view impressions

on Facebook.” This “gives advertisers

the option to purchase

ad impressions where

the entire ad—from top

to bottom—has passed

through a person’s

screen in News Feed.”

Page 29: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

What it means for advertisers:

Advertisers have the upper hand: “As long as marketers continue

to put pressure on the publishers to have metrics that make sense to

their business, then [the publishers] will have to succumb to that

pressure eventually.” —Diana Gordon, Mindshare

Social platform deals with Moat look smart: Facebook and

Twitter have both agreed to work with third-party verification firm Moat;

In October 2015, Moat became the first firm accredited by the Media

Ratings Council to monitor mobile ad viewability.

Reframing the discussion might bring resolution: In some

respects, the debate over viewability is behind the times. A better way to

look at it might be whether someone engaged with the ad, rather than

simply viewing some portion of it.

Page 30: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Trend #5:

Slow Progress for

Cross-Platform Targeting

Page 31: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

There’s no doubt advertisers like the targeting

capabilities in social (particularly Facebook)

In a recent

eMarketer

report,

Facebook was

the only

property that

received an A

grade

Page 32: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Facebook’s Atlas ad server is a new way of

thinking about targeting

Cross-device

Cross-platform

Cross-browser

Based on Facebook data

Targets real people, not

guesses via cookies

Page 33: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

But agencies and marketers have a ways to go

before they’re fully ready for Atlas

What’s Needed?

Solid data strategy

Defined KPIs

Tag management

infrastructure

“There is a lot

of heavy lifting

that both

agencies and

marketers

need to do.”

—Diana Gordon,

Mindshare

Page 34: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

What it means for advertisers:

It’s unclear whether people-based targeting will work for

standard banner ads: “I’m a little hesitant about it. Even if that

traditional banner ad can use Facebook’s very rich targeting, I think

there’s a certain amount of banner blindness” among consumers.

—Rob Wolf, Microsoft

Social data isn’t the be-all, end-all: Not everyone is a Facebook

user. In the US, nearly 40% of internet users don’t use it, eMarketer

calculates. Atlas can’t target people for whom it doesn’t have data.

Atlas won’t make sense if you’re not ready for it: “If you’re still

using social media as a CRM platform or a relevance platform,” it’s not

right for you. —Jill Sherman, DigitasLBi North America

Page 35: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Trend #6:

Buy Buttons Will Stay Niche

Page 36: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Buy buttons are everywhere, but they require a

significant change in consumer behavior

Images: Instagram, Twitter, Facebook

Page 37: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

The holidays

may not be

the positive

bellwether

some are

expecting

48%Percentage of US internet users who

say they don’t use social media to

help with holiday shopping

9%Percentage who plan to buy directly

from a social media site

Source: Market Track, Sept. 2015

Page 38: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Retailers need

more time to

figure it out

Page 39: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

What it means for advertisers:

Now is the time to test buy buttons: “I think that the next year is

going to be [a time to] test and learn, and we'll come out of it

understanding how it can be valuable.” —Robin Kamen, Bliss

Look for places where social commerce makes sense:

On a platform like Pinterest, where consumers often pin things they are

interested in doing or buying, purchasing via a buy button might make

more sense.

Study where your customers are coming from:

“A lot of merchants are telling us the majority of customers they’re

acquiring through the buy button are net new, which means we’re

growing their business.” —Tram Nguyen, Pinterest

Page 40: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Trend #7:

Live-Streaming Video Will

Get Real(-Time)

Page 41: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Twitter’s Periscope is catching on with

marketers—for diverse reasons

Public relations Influencer marketingPromotions

Page 42: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Snapchat and Instagram could be next

Live Stories are Snapchat’s “most addictive

feature.” —Time, Sept. 25, 2015

Images: Snapchat, Wired

“Instagram is becoming a formidable news

service.” —Wired, Oct. 31, 2015

Page 43: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

What it means for advertisers:

Event sponsorships are perfect platforms: With the growth of

video in general, more marketers are publishing edited clips from live

events. The next step is simply to livestream from the event, giving users

an exclusive peek into the action.

Consistent, reliable experiences will help livestreaming

grow: Once consumers “start to feel that there is this consistent

environment where [livestream] video exists, and it’s reliable and

engaging, then I think we’ll start to see it start to scale.”

—Diana Gordon, Mindshare

Brands have an opportunity: “It’s something that everyone’s

tiptoeing around, but no one’s really stepped up to owning it.”

—Amir Zonozi, Zoomph

Page 44: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Trend #8:

Messaging Apps Will Be

Marketing’s Next Frontier

Page 45: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

The number of people using mobile messaging is

rising fast

43.7% of

mobile phone

users

Source: eMarketer, Nov. 2015

64.6%

Page 46: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Facebook’s Messenger and WhatsApp are poised

to be global powerhouses

900 million monthly

active users

700 million monthly

active users

Source: Facebook, Nov. 2015

Page 47: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Mobile device

users—

particularly

millennials—

are receptive

to this kind of

marketing

Page 48: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

What it means for advertisers:

Explore customer service or publishing applications

– Before advertising takes hold, eMarketer expects these apps to

become places where marketers can conduct customer service and

publish content. That’s how marketers first used Twitter.

Functionality and utility will be key

– In China, WeChat has become a “Swiss army knife” of information

and utility, where users can do everything from make mobile

payments to hailing a taxi in addition to messaging and voice or

video chatting.

Page 49: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Reviewing the Predictions

Page 50: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Eight social marketing trends for 2016:

1. TV ad dollars will start to flow toward social.

2. Social properties will need to respond to ad blocking.

3. Influencer marketing will go mainstream.

4. The viewability debate will drag on.

5. Slow progress for cross-platform targeting.

6. Buy buttons will remain niche.

7. Live-streaming video will get real(-time).

8. Messaging apps will be marketing’s next frontier.

Page 51: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

Facebook by the Numbers

adroll.com, @AdRoll

Page 52: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

This report summarizes our in-

depth review of over 55,000

campaigns, which served over

37 billion

impressions.

(46 times more than last year)

adroll.com, @AdRoll

Facebook by the Numbers

Page 53: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

YOY Increase in Facebook Spend by Industry

adroll.com, @AdRoll

Page 54: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

Adding Facebook to Retargeting Doubles

Reach

adroll.com, @AdRoll

Page 55: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

B2B is Embracing Programmatic on Facebook

- B2B used Retargeting on Facebook for

content marketing and as a way to increase

social engagement.

- B2B CTRs increased by 140% and ASPA

increased by 60%

adroll.com, @AdRoll

Page 56: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

Performance Lift by Adding Cross-Device

Retargeting on Facebook

adroll.com, @AdRoll

Page 57: eMarketer Webinar: Social Marketing Trends for 2016

© 2015 eMarketer Inc.

Learn more about digital marketing with an

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Q&A Session

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To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products

800-405-0844 or [email protected]

Debra Aho Williamson

Social Marketing

Trends for 2016

US Social Trends for 2016: eMarketer Predictions for Video,

Viewability, Buy Buttons, Messaging and More

Buy Buttons: Where Social Meets Mobile Commerce

Mobile Messaging Apps: Global User Forecast, Leaderboard

and Outlook on Monetization

Social Advertising Effectiveness Scorecard: Industry Execs

Grade the Leading Platforms