ELEMENTSFORTHEBIENNIALREVIEWANDASSESSMENTOFTHE

WORLDTIMBERSITUATION2015-2016

FrancesMaplesden

Contentq  JointForestSectorQues0onnaire

2015-2016§  Responses,dataquality,

developmentsq  Tropicalwoodproductsproduc0onand

trade§  Primarywoodproducts

q  Globalmarkettrendsanddrivers§  Marketrisksanduncertain0es

JOINTFORESTSECTORQUESTIONNAIRE2016

Dataresponses

Intotal,43outof72ITTOmembercountriesreturnedthe2016ques0onnaire,eitherfullyorpar0allycompleted:

28consumercountries(75%);9JFSQsmissing

15producercountries(42%);20JFSQsmissing.

Wehavefullinforma0on(produc0on,trade,direc0onsoftrade,secondarytrade,2016es0mates,tradeintropicalspecies,forestsectorques0onnaire)foronly10countries

DataQualityProduc0ondataisdifficulttocollect(%ofdatapoints)

1990-2016 2012-2016

Ques0onnaire,PartnerOrganiza0ons,officialpublica0ons

52% 42%

Es0mated 33% 15%

Repeated 15% 43%

Tradedataiseasiertocollect(%ofdatapoints)1990-2016 2012-2016

Ques0onnaire,PartnerOrganiza0ons,UNCOMTRADE,WTA

62% 55%

Es0mated(e.g.convertedfromweighttom3)

36% 34%

Repeated 2% 11%

Databasedevelopmentsq  UpgradeofSPWPdatabasepla`orm

q  Morecomprehensivecross-referencingandcleaningofdata

q  Extendedinforma0ononSPWPsq  Pricetrendsforprimarywoodproducts;

priceindicesq  Reviewofconversionfactors

Conversionfactorsq Standardiseddataisrequiredforaggrega0onsand

comparisonsq Currentconversionfactorsmaybeinaccurategiven

changesintechnologyandwoodresourceq Tradedataavailableisobennotstandardisedand

requiresunitconversion(e.g.weighttovolume)q  ITTOpar0cularlyrequiresmoreup-to-datecountry

es0matesof(1)weighttovolume(kg/m3)forlogs,sawnwood,veneerandplywoodand(2)averageconversionefficiencies(m3RWE/m3productoutput)forsawnwood,veneerandplywoodproducers

q  ITTO/FAO/UNECEques0onnaireonconversionfactors

PRODUCTIONANDTRADETRENDSPRIMARYWOODPRODUCTS

ProducFonoftropicalindustrialroundwood(logs)

TropicallogproducFon,ITTOproducerregions

TropicallogproducFon,majorITTOproducers

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Volume(m

illionm

3 )

Malaysia Indonesia MyanmarThailand VietNam BrazilIndia Nigeria Restofworld

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Volume(m

illionm

3 )

Africa Asia-Pacific LaFnAmerica/Caribbean

MAJORTRADEFLOWS2015:TROPICALLOGS

Majorexportersoftropicallogs

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000Vo

lume(1000m

3 )

Malaysia PNG MyanmarR.ofCongo Cameroon MozambiqueSolomonIs. Restofworld(ITTO)

Majorimportersoftropicallogs

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000Vo

lume(1000m

3 )

China India VietNamTaiwanPOC Japan EU-28Restofworld(ITTO)

ChinaandIndia:Importsoftropicallogs,2000-2015

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Volume(1,000m

3 )

Ghana Malaysia MyanmarPNG SolomonIs.

China:Tropicallogimports India:Tropicallogimports

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Volume(1,000m

3 )

Cameroon R.ofCongo Equ.GuineaMalaysia Mozambique MyanmarNigeria PNG SolomonIs.

Chinaimportsof“rosewood”logs,2005-2015

Source:WorldTradeAtlasNote:“Rosewood”logfiguresincludeallimportsclassifiedinHScode44039930,whichincludeanumberofspecieswithinthegeneraDalbergia,Pterocarpus,Mille3a,CassiusandDiospyrus.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Value(USmillions)

Laos NigeriaMyanmar IndiaGambia DRCMozambique TogoGuinea-Bissau GhanaBenin MalaysiaVietnam Restofworld

WestAfricaLogExportPriceIndex

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

PriceInde

x(31Jan2013=100)

Note:Thisindexisbasedontwo-weeklynominaleuroprices/m3ofselectedWestAfricanspeciesSource:ITTOTropicalTimberMarketReport,variousissues.Dataunavailablefor2012.

ProducFonoftropicalsawnwood,byregionandmajorITTOproducers,2000-2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Volume(m

illionm

3 )

Africa Asia-Pacific LaFnAmerica/Caribbean

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Volume(m

illionm

3 )

Brazil Malaysia India Indonesia

Thailand ITTOAfrica VietNam

MAJORTRADEFLOWS2015:TROPICALSAWNWOOD

Tropicalsawnwoodexports,majortropicalcountries,2000-2016

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000Vo

lume(1000m

3 )

Malaysia Thailand IndonesiaCameroon Gabon BrazilLaoPDR Restofworld(ITTO)

Tropicalsawnwoodimports,majorITTOcountries2000-2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000Vo

lume(1000m

3 )

China Thailand TaiwanPOCEU28 VietNam USARestofworld(ITTO)

Tropicalsawnwoodtrade,majorcountries,2000-2015

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Volume(1,000m

3 )

Thailand China PhilippinesSingapore TaiwanPOC UAEJapan Netherlands

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Value(US$m

illions)

Cameroon Gabon IndonesiaLaoPDR Malaysia ThailandVietNam

Malaysia:Exportsoftropicalsawnwood

China:Importsoftropicalsawnwood

WestAfricaSawnwoodExportPriceIndex

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

PriceInde

x(31Janu

ary2013=100)

Note:Thisindexisbasedontwo-weeklynominaleuroprices/m3ofselectedWestAfricansawnwoodspecies.Source:ITTOTropicalTimberMarketReport,variousissues.Dataunavailablefor2012.

ProducFonoftropicalplywood,majorITTOcountries

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Volume(1000m

3 )

China Indonesia MalaysiaIndia Brazil EcuadorRestofworld(ITTO)

MAJORTRADEFLOWS2015:TROPICALPLYWOOD

Majorexportersoftropicalplywood

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Volume(1000m

3 )

Indonesia Malaysia China VietNam Restofworld(ITTO)

Majorimportersoftropicalplywood

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000Vo

lume(1000m

3 )

Japan RepublicofKorea USATaiwanPOC China EU-28Restofworld(ITTO)

JapanPlywoodImportPriceIndex

20

40

60

80

100

120

PriceInde

x(31March

2013=100)

Note:Thisindexisbasedontwo-weeklynominaldollarprices/m3ofIndonesianpanelsforconcreteformwork(12mm3'X6'JASC&F),Indonesianfloorbases(3'x6'JASC&F)andIndonesianthinpanels(3'x6'JASC&F).Source:JapanLumberReports,variousissues.

MARKETISSUES

RealGDPgrowth,2000-2021

ITTOProducersandConsumers ITTOProducerRegions

Source:IMFOutlookDatabaseOctober2016(F=Forecast) Source:IMFOutlookDatabaseOctober2016(F=Forecast)

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16F

17F

18F

19F

20F

21F

ITTOproducers ITTOConsumers

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16F

17F

18F

19F

20F

21F

Africa Asia La0nAmerica

Othermarketissuesq  Chinaeconomicgrowthanddemandlevelsq  ContagioneffectsofChinadownturnontropicalwood

productstradeq  Brexit;threatsandopportuni0esq  Impactofnewpreferen0altradeagreementsonwood

productstradeq  Rela0vemarketcompe00venessofcompe0ngwoodandnon-

woodproductsq  Declineintropicalhardwoodavailabilityandqualityq  Designtrendsandconsumerpreferencesq  Productinnova0onandbuildingtrendsq  Energypricesq  Climatechange;effec0venessofpoliciesq  Elimina0onofillegallyloggedwoodfromsupplychainsin

majortropicalwoodprocessingcountries.

ITTOBiennialReviewandAssessmentoftheWorldTimberSituaFon2015-2016Availableatwww.ino.int

ino-stats@ino.int