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ELECTRICITY POLICY DEVELOPMENT & INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY IN INDONESIA

MINISTRY ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF ELECTRICITY

By: 1. Mr. Benhur PL. Tobing, Deputy Director for Electricity Cooperation 2. Mr. Wanhar, Deputy Director for Preparation of Electricity Program

March, 2014

Energy & Mineral Resources for People Prosperity

I. CURRENT CONDITION

Energy and Mineral Resources for People Prosperity

Government Policy on Power Sector (Based on Law No. 30 Year 2009 on Electricity)

Objective of Electricity Development To ensure the availability of electricity in sufficient quantity, good quality and reasonable price in order to improve the welfare of the people (article 2 clause (2)).

Utilization of Primary Energy Source Primary energy sources from domestic and overseas shall be used optimally

in accordance with National Energy Policy to ensure a sustainable supply of electricity (article 6 clause (1)).

Utilization of domestic energy sources will be prioritized for national interests (article 6 clause (3)).


Overview of Indonesia Electricity Condition

Total installed capacity (2013): 47,328 MW (PLN 74%, IPP 22%, and PPU 4%) Electricity consumption (2013): 188 TWh (Household 41%, Industry 34%, Business 19%, Public 6%) Demand growth: 7.8 % (2013), 10.1 % p.a. (projected up to 2031) National electrification ratio (2013): 80.51% Several area are facing limited electricity supply Energy mix in power production (2013) : Coal 51.6%, Gas 23.6%, Oil 12.5%, Hydro 7.9%, Geothermal 4.4% Total investment in Power Sector (2012): ± USD 7.16 Billlion

31

,95

9

33

,98

3

39

,88

5

45

,25

3

47

,32

8

51

,21

4

53

,93

3

59

,91

1

65

,31

0

75

,88

3

85

,15

2

92

,31

0

97

,95

8

10

4,4

31

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Installed Capacity (MW)

Electricity Consumption (TWh)

134 147

158 174

188

208

226

246

266

287

310

334

359

386

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Projection & Planning based on RUPTL PLN 2013-2022


Oil share in electricity production is still high, because:

There are many DPP outside of Java-Bali system, it is operating in base load as well as in peak load period to fulfill the demand

Several CCPP and GTPP are operating utilizing oil as primary energy (in Java – Bali System).

Total installed capacity is about 47,328 MW

Power Generation by Owner

Power Generation by Type

Electricity Production by Energy Mix

Power generation is dominated by CFPP, then followed by CCPP, DPP, GTPP, HEPP, STPP-O/G, Geo PP, GEPP, MPP, CGPP, WPP, Biomass, MHPP, Solar PV and WTPP.

Power Generation Current Condition

HEPP 9%

CFPP 41%

STPP-O/G 5%

Biomass 0.1%

GTPP 9%

CCPP 20%

GeoPP 3%

DPP 12%

GEPP 0.4%

Solar PV 0.009% WTPP

0.002%

MPP 0.1% MHPP

0.01%

CGPP 0.1% WPP

0.1%

IPP 22%

PLN 74%

PPU 4%

Oil 12.5%

Coal 51.6%

Gas 23.6%

Geothermal 4.4%

Hydro 7.9%


Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Realization 65.10% 65.79% 67.15% 72.95% 76.56% 80.51%

Based on Draft RUKN 81.51% 83.18% 86.37% 89.56%

NAD

89,72% Sumut

87,62%

Sumbar

80,22%

Riau

77,56%

Sumsel

70,90%

Bengkulu

77,53%

Babel

97,13%

Lampung

77,55%

Jakarta

99,99%

Banten

86,27%

Jabar

80,15%

Jateng

86,13%

Jambi

75,14%

DIY

80,57%

Jatim

79,26%

Bali

78,08%

NTT

54,77%

Kalbar

95,55%

Kalsel

81,61%

Kaltim

80,45%

Sulut

81,82%

Sulteng

71,02%

Sulsel

81,14%

Malut

87,67%

Maluku

78,36%

Papua

36,41%

Category :

> 70 %

50 - 70 %

< 50 %

Sulbar

67,60%

Kepri

69,66%

Sultra

62,51%

Papua Barat

75,53%

Kalteng

66,21%

Gorontalo

67,81%

NTB

64,43%

Electrification Ratio 2013


II. ON GOING & FUTURE PLAN


Fast Track Program (FTP) Phase I

1 2

3

4 5

6

7

8 9

10

11 12

13

14

15 16

17

18

19

20

22

23

24 25

26 27

33

32

31

30

34

28 29

21

SUMATERA 8 PROJECTS (1.411 MW): 1. CFPP NAD – Nagan Raya (2x110 MW) 2. CFPP Sumut – Pangkalan Susu (2x220 MW) 3. CFPP Sumbar – Teluk Sirih (2x112 MW) 4. CFPP Riau – Tenayan (2x110 MW) 5. CFPP Kep. Riau -Tj. Balai Karimun (2x7 MW) 6. CFPP 3 Bangka – Bangka Baru (2x30 MW) 7. CFPP 4 Bangka – Belitung (2x16,5 MW 8. CFPP Lampung – Tarahan (2x100 MW)

JAWA-BALI 10 PROJECTS (7.490 MW) 9. CFPP 1 Banten – Suralaya (1x625 MW) 10. CFPP 2 Banten – Labuan (2x300 MW) 11. CFPP 3 Banten – Lontar (3x315 MW) 12. CFPP 1 Jabar – Indramayu (3x330 MW) 13. CFPP 2 Jabar – Pelabuhan Ratu (2x350 MW) 14. CFPP 1 Jateng – Rembang (2x315 MW) 15. CFPP 2 Jateng – Adipala (1x660 MW) 16. CFPP 1 Jatim – Pacitan (2x315 MW) 17. CFPP 2 Jatim – Paiton (1x 660 MW) 18. CFPP 3 Jatim – Tj. Awar Awar (2x350 MW)

KALIMANTAN 5 PROJECTS (625 MW) 19. CFPP 1 Kalbar – Parit Baru (2x50 MW) 20. CFPP 2 Kalbar – Bengkayang (2x27,5 MW) 21. CFPP 1 Kalteng – Pulang Pisau (2x60 MW) 22. CFPP Kalsel – Asam-Asam (2x65 MW) 23. CFPP Kaltim – Tl. Balikpapan (2x110 MW)

NUSA TENGGARA 4 PROJECTS (117 MW) 28. CFPP 1 NTB – Bima (2x10 MW) 29. CFPP 2 NTB – Lombok (2x25 MW) 30. CFPP 1 NTT – Ende (2x7 MW) 31. CFPP 2 NTT – Kupang (2x16,5 MW)

TOTAL : 34 PROJECT (9.927 MW)

Outside Jawa 25% Jawa

75%

: COD all unit : COD 1 unit : Under Construction (≥ 85%)

SULAWESI 4 PROJECTS (220 MW) 24. CFPP 2 Sulut – Amurang (2x25 MW) 25. CFPP Gorontalo – Anggrek (2x25 MW) 26. CFPP Sultra– Kendari (2x10 MW) 27. CFPP Sulsel – Barru (2x50 MW)

MALUKU 2 PROJECTS (44 MW) 32. CFPP Malut – Tidore (2x7 MW) 33. CFPP Maluku – Ambon (2x15 MW)

PAPUA 1 PROJECTS (20 MW) 34. CFPP 2 Papua – Jayapura (2x10 MW)

: Under Construction (50% - 85%) : Under Construction (< 50%)


Realization and Target COD of FTP I

300 300

2560

1350

1867

3.550,0

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Realization 6.377 MW (64,2%)

Target 3.550 MW (35,8%)

Banten - Labuan#1

MW

Banten - Labuan#2

1. Jabar - Indramayu (3x330 MW) 2. Banten – Suralaya (1x625 MW) 3. Banten – Lontar #1 (315 MW) 4. Jateng - Rembang 2x315 MW

1. Banten - Lontar #2 & #3 (630 MW) 2. Jatim – Paiton (1x660 MW) 3. Sulut – Amurang (2x25 MW) 4. Sultra – Kendari #2 (10 MW)

1. Jateng – Adipala (1x660 MW) 2. Jatim – Tj. Awar-awar (2x350 MW) 3. NAD – Nagan Raya (2x110 MW) 4. Sumut – Pangkalan Susu (2x220 MW) 5. Sumbar – Teluk Sirih (2x112 MW) 6. Kepri – Tj. Balai Karimun #1 (7 MW) 7. Babel – Bangka Baru (2x30 MW) 8. Babel – Belitung (2x16,5 MW) 9. Riau – Tenayan (2x110 MW) 10. Lampung – Tarahan Baru (2x100 MW) 11. Kalbar – Parit Baru (2x50 MW) 12. Kalbar – Bengkayang (2x27,5 MW) 13. Kalteng – Pulang Pisau (2x60 MW) 14. Kaltim – Teluk Balikpapan (2x110 MW) 15. NTB – Lombok (2x25 MW) 16. NTB – Bima (2x10 MW) 17. NTT – Ende (2x7 MW) 18. NTT – Kupang (2x16,5 MW) 19. Gorontalo – Anggrek (2x25 MW) 20. Sulsel – Barru #1 (50 MW) 21. Sultra – Kendari #1 (10 MW) 22. Maluku – Ambon (2x15 MW) 23. Malut – Tidore (2x7 MW) 24. Papua – Jayapura (2x10 MW)

1. Sulsel – Barru#2 (50 MW) 2. Kalsel - Asam-asam (2x65 MW) 3. Jatim – Pacitan (2x315 MW) 4. Jabar – Pelabuhan Ratu (3x350 MW) 5. Kepri – Tj. Balai Karimun #2 (7 MW)


SUMATERA • HEPP : 453 MW • GeoPP : 2.725 MW • CFPP : 400 MW TOTAL : 3.578 MW

JAVA – BALI • HEPP : 1.150 MW • GeoPP : 1.935 MW • CFPP : 9.720 MW TOTAL : 12.805 MW

KALIMANTAN • CFPP : 500 MW • GTPP : 280 MW TOTAL : 780 MW

SULAWESI • HEPP : 200 MW • GeoPP : 195 MW • CFPP : 200 MW TOTAL : 595 MW

MALUKU • GeoPP : 35 MW TOTAL : 35 MW

NUSA TENGGARA • GeoPP : 75 MW • CFPP : 50 MW TOTAL : 125 MW

Fast Track Program (FTP) Phase II

Power Generation Compisition Renewable vs Non-Renewable Developer

TOTAL : 76 Proyek (17.918 MW)

GeoPP 4.965 MW

(28%)

HEPP 1.803 MW

(10%)

CFPP 10.870

MW (61%)

GTPP 280 MW

(1%) Renewable 6.768 MW

(38%) Non-

Renewable 11.150 MW

(62%)

PLN 5.749 MW (32%)

IPP 12.169 MW

(68%)

Outside

Java

29% Java 71%


Projection of Electricity Demand 2013-2022

Average of national electricity demand growth 2013-2022 is about 8.4% annually.

Sumatera: 10,6%

26 TWh

66 TWh

TWh

IT : 10,8%

18 44 TWh

JB : 7,6%

144 TWh

275 TWh

2013 2022

TWh

TWh 188 385

Kalimantan: 10,7% Sulawesi: 10,8%

Indonesia: 8,4%

Papua: 10%

Maluku: 10,9%

Nusa Tenggara: 11,1%

Source: RUPTL PLN 2013-2022


Power Generation Development Planning


• Total additional capacity up to about 60 GW; • PLN and IPP projects only for on going and committed projects; • The project which doesn't has the developer yet as well as funding is called “unallocated projects”.


Electricity efficiency effort is conducted through diversification of primary energy in power generation (supply side) by optimizing utilization of gas, reduce of oil utilization, increasing coal utilization, and developing renewable energy power generation;

Gas and coal are priority to reduce dependence on oil in power generation;

Coal will to be mainstay as base load power plant and gas as load follower power plant.

Target of Energy Mix for Power Production

Oil 12.5%

Coal 51.6%

Gas 23.6%

Geothermal 4.4%

Hydro 7.9%

Oil 1.7%

Coal 66.0%

Gas 16.3% Geothermal

11.0%

Hydro 5.0%

2013 (213 TWh)

2022 (± 438 TWh)



III. CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION – CLEAN COAL TECHNOLOGY


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Total Emission Emission from Coal

Million Tons CO2 • Emission will increase

from 125 million tons in 2011 to 275 million tons in 2020

• Most emission will come from coal combustion (almost 90%)

• For Java Bali: Grid emission factor will reduce from 0.78 kg CO2/kWh in 2011 to 0.75 kg/kWh in 2020.

CO2 Emission From Electricity Sector


• Indonesia’s power sector can be mistakenly regarded as more concern about growth and use of indigenous coal than concern about global climate challenge.

• However, Indonesia would actually do better than just ‘grow first – cleanup later’ , it is seen from the fact that Indonesia have plan to develop large scale geothermal and small-medium-large scale hydro power, as well as clean coal technology.

• PLN in its 10-year power development plan to 2022 set a policy that only SC/USC coal plants will be developed in Java for better efficiency and lower CO2 emissions.

• Gov of Indonesia (MEMR) and gov of Japan (JICA) are carried out a project study “Promotion of Clean Coal Technology (CCT) in Indonesia” from April 2011 to be July 2012. The CCT study team consists of Chubu Electric, JPower and Jcoal, with MEMR and PLN as counterpart team.

Cleaner Use of Low Rank Coal


Rational for USC/IGCC introduction in Indonesia

Alignment with Indonesia’s Policy

Economic validity

Is it possible to use low rank coal (LRC) ? → Yes, LRC can be utilized Does it contribute to GHG emission reduction ? → Yes, GHG emission amount will be reduced

Is USC & IGCC readily available ? → USC: readily available, IGCC: available in 2020 When can it be introduced in Indonesia? → USC: 2017, IGCC: 2025

Is it economically viable ? → Yes, Generation cost will be lower than Sub-c or SC

Technical availability

Clean Coal Technology [1/2]


Target for introduction of USC and IGCC in Indonesia USC should be introduced for next new coal fired power plant project (2017) IGCC will be introduced around 2025, considering the development situation in

the world

CCT Technology for Coal Fired Power Plants

Matured technology to achieve low electricity costs & low GHG emissions

• Proven and already commercialized technology • Introduced all around the world • Can utilize low rank coal with above average ash melting point • Economic superiority to SC • Lower GHG emission compared to SC

Promising technology to achieve low electricity cost, lower GHG emissions & LRC utilization • Technology yet to be commercialized • Will be introduced at the beginning of 2020s in commercial base in the world • Promising technology for low rank coal with low ash melting point • Economic superiority to SC and USC • Lower GHG emission compared to SC & USC

USC IGCC

Clean Coal Technology [2/2]


• After assessing relevant factors (technical availability, low rank coal availability, economic viability, technical challenges in introducing CCT and contribution to GHG emission reduction), the CCT study concludes that the CCT technology that can be adopted by Indonesia are USC and IGCC.

• USC is commercially matured, already proven and well performed in many countries, can use low rank coal having above average ash melting point, has economic merit to SubC and SC, produces lower CO2 emissions.

• IGCC is a promising technology, yet not commercially matured, can use low rank coal with low ash melting point, its project cost is expected to drop and make it economical compared to SC and USC, lower CO2 emission than SC and USC.

*) Source: The Project for Promotion of Clean Coal Technology (CCT) in Indonesia, Interim Report, October 2011, Jakarta, JICA Study Team.

Roadmap of CCT in Indonesia *)


*) Source: The Project for Promotion of Clean Coal Technology (CCT) in Indonesia, Interim Report, October 2011, Jakarta, JICA Study Team, with modification

2011 2015 2020 2025

SC, = 35-40%

USC, 43%

IGCC 45-48%

Central Java IPP (USC 2x1000 MW)

Indramayu #2 (USC 1000 MW)

Indramayu #1 (USC 1000 MW)

Bekasi (USC 2x600 MW)

2000–3000 MW per year

IGCC 1000 MW Class

Cirebon (SC 1x660 MW)

Paiton 3 (SC 1x815 MW)

Roadmap of CCT in Indonesia *)


IV. INVESTMENT


Investment Requirement U

SD

Bill

ion

PLN’s Power Gen. : USD 37,7 billion PLN’s + IPP’s Power Gen.: USD 91,4 billion Transmission : USD 18,6 billion Distribution : USD 14,5 billion Total PLN : USD 70,8 billion Total PLN+IPP : USD 124,5 billion

IPP’s investment share up to 2022 is about 43%.

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Total PLN's Investment Total PLN's + IPP's Investment PLN's+ IPP's Power Gen.

Transmission Distribution PLN's Power Gen.


Investor

(Foreign/

Domestic)

Ministry of Energy

and

Mineral Resources

Investment

Coordinating

Board

Ministry of Finance

Request for Import Duty Exemption Ministry of Finance Regulation PMK No. 128/PMK.0011/2009 Jo. PMK No. 154/PMK.0011/2008

Local

Government

PT. PLN (Persero)

State-Owned Enterprise

Directorate General of Electricity

Commercial Construction

Registration

President Regulation No. 36 of 2010. Regulation of

Head of BKPM No. 12 of 2009

RUKN 2008-2027

(National Electricity General Plan)

Ministrial Decree No. 2682

K/21/MEM/2008

RUPTL 2012 - 2021

(Electricity Business Plan)

Tend

er

Dire

ct

Sele

ctio

n

Dire

ct

Appo

intm

ent

Temporary Business Permit of Electricity (IUPL / IO Sementara) Ministry of ESDM Regulation No. 10 of 2005

Goods Import Plan (RIB) Dirjen Regulation No. 211.12/20/600.1/2012

Examination of Feasible Operation (SLO) Ministerial Regulation No. 46 of 2006

• Local Permit • Environment Impact Analysis

(AMDAL) • etc

N

Y

Bidding Process Mechanism: Government Regulation No. 14/2012

Approval

Approval

N

N

Y

Y

Approval Certificate of

Operational Feasible N

Y

Pre-Operation

Permanent Business Permit of Electricity (IUPL / IO Tetap) Ministry of ESDM Regulation No. 10 of 2005

Approval

RUPTL project consist of: • Regular Project • FTP Phase I Project • FTP Phase II Project • Public Private Partnership Project

PPA

IO

IUPL

General Mechanism of Investment in Electricity


Tender Direct Selection

Direct Appointment

• Renewable energy, marginal gas, mine-mouth coal and other local energy sources;

• Excess power;

• Crisis condition or emergency of electricity supply; or.

• Expansion of IPP which has already operation at the same location: o Capacity ≤ existing o Capacity > existing:

− more efficient technology − environmental friendly − accordance with the requirement of electricity

system

• Energy diversification for power generation to non oil fuel.

• IPP expansion more than needed

• Basically power purchase by Tender

Investment Scheme (Based on Government Regulation No. 14/2012 on Activity of Electricity Provision Business)


The Government Supports FTP II Project The government guarantees the feasibility of PLN business in accordance to the

provisions of legislation. Provide facilities such as exemption from import duty and other facilities regulated by the

Ministry of Finance (MoF).

PPP Project The government provide “the government support” or “the government guarantee”. If private as the initiator of the project, the government will provide some compensation:

1. Additional value (max 10% of the initiator tender assessment); or 2. Right to match by the initiator against the best offer in accordance with the results of

the assessment in the tender process; 3. Purchase of a joint project initiatives including intellectual property rights attached to

them by the minister / head of institution / district head or by the winning bidder.


IPP (Seller)

Company “X”

Company “Y” LA

Foreign

Local

Lender

EPC Contractor

EPC Contract

O&M Contract

O&M Contractor

PLN (Buyer)

FUEL Supply

Contractor FSA PPA

A

C

D B

JVA

Typical IPP Business Scheme An SPC shall be formed to execute the agreement and to build and operate the IPP project

Consortium: 2 to 4 companies

25 % – 30% 70% – 75%

A

D

B C

Cent/kW/year

Rp-Cent/kWh

Rp/kWh

Rp- Cent/kWh

JVA : Joint Venture Agreement LA : Loan Agreement PPA : Power Purchase Agreement FSA : Fuel Supply Agreement EPC : Engineering, Procurement & Construction O&M : Operation & Maintenance


PLN IPP

Company

IIGF GOI Financiers

(ECA / Banks)

PLN IPP

Company

GOI Financiers

(ECA / Banks)

Public Private Partnership (PPP) Project Guarantee Agrement between GOI-IGGF-Developer

Fast Track Program II (FTP II) Project Business Viability Guarantee Letter from GOI to Developer

PPA

RA

GA FA

GA = Guarantee Agreement PPA = Power Purchase Agreement RA = Recourse Agreement FA = Financing Agreement

FA

PPA

BVGL

BVGL = Business Viability Guarantee Letter GOI = Government of Indonesia IIGF = Indonesia Infrastructure Guarantee Fund

a. Presidential Regulation No 67 of 2005, 13 of 2010, and 56 of 2011

Assignment to PT PLN (Persero), to Accelerate the Development of Renewable Energy, Coal and Gas Fired Power Plants

b. Presidential Regulation No 78 of 2010

Guarantee for Infrastructure Project with scheme of the Cooperation with Private Developer through Infrastructure Entity Guarantor

c. Minister of Finance Regulation No 260/PMK.011/2010

Procedures for Providing Guarantee for Infrastructure Project through Public Private Partnership Scheme

a. Presidential Regulation No 4 of 2010 and 48 of 2011

b. Minister of Finance Regulation No 139/PMK.011/2011

Procedures for Providing the Business Viability Guarantee of PT PLN (Persero) for the Development of Renewable Energy, Coal and Gas Fired Power Plants through the Cooperation with Private Electricity Developer

Assignment to PT PLN (Persero), to Accelerate the Development of Renewable Energy, Coal and Gas Fired Power Plants

c. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No 15 of 2010 and 01 of 2012

List of Projects of the Acceleration Development of Renewable Energy, Coal and Gas Fired Power Plants

Regulatory Frameworks (2 schemes of Government Guarantee)


Signing of: 1. Power Purchase

Agreement 2. Guarantee Agreement 3. Recourse Agreement

Pre-FS Finalisation

Pre FS review and preparation

of GAP Appointment of

Consultants

PPP scheme

determined

Consultation

Screening

Award & Signing Bid

Submission & Evaluation

One on one

meetings Submission of GAP

Appraisal

Structuring

Draft RFP released

IIGF Guarantee Provision Process

EOI and PQ process

Final RFP released

Issuance of In-Principle

Approval

PPP Scheme Procurement & Guarantee Processes


2nd Fast Track Program (FTP 2) Guarantee to the Developer (in the form BVGL to be issued by Minister of Finance), stating that PLN will fulfill its Financial Obligations (a positive list) under the PPA

A project is in the Fast Track Program List

IPP Project Procurement has been done (the agreed final draft of PPA is available)

PLN to submit a request (proposal) for BVGL issuance for the Project, to be attached with, among others: •Project Feasibility Evaluation; •Final (agreed) draft of PPA; • Financial model of the project

MoF to evaluate the proposal. BVGL will be issued if the project is eligible for it.

BVGL Issuance Process

Government Guarantee for FTP2 Business Viability Guarantee Letter (BVGL)


IPP Procurement Timeline (FTP II & Reguler)


Closing Government will continue to improve community access to energy, particularly electrical energy

through the addition of generation capacity.

The government gradually reduces dependence on oil fuel in power generation by optimizing the energy sources.

The government continues to build a conducive investment climate particularly in the electricity sector in order to encourage private sector participation to invest in the development of environmentally friendly technologies.

Indonesia will reduce the dependence on oil through diversification of primary energy in power generation.

Increasing of coal utilization is one way to reduce the dependence on oil in power generation, beside developing the renewable energy power generation.

Indonesia needs huge investment to develop power generation, so that public and private sector participation, either domestic and international investment are required and welcomed due to limitation of PLN and Government’s fund. It is vast opportunity for investment.

Yet Indonesia is committed to adopt cleaner coal technology. PLN plans only USC CFPP in Java, and adopting IGCC as soon as it is commercially matured.

Thank You for your attention

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