Electricity Network Planning until 2050 – The e-HIGHWAY2050 project

Romanian Energy Center - RECRound Table

Dr. Mihai PAUNNetwork DevelopmentENTSO-E

Brussels 26 April 2012

Key activities set out in Regulation 714/2009 (on cross-border electricity trade, part of the 3rd IEM Package)• Deliver network codes binding to all network users (through ‘Comitology’)• Deliver network plans European / regional view of system needs (“TYNDP”)• Deliver crucial aspects of market integration (“market coupling”)• R&D Plan (fully included in EEGI – European Electricity

Grid Initiative, part of the SET Plan)

Through its members deliver the infrastructure to:• enable markets to function, • secure energy supply, • meet climate change objectives through connecting RES

ENTSO-E has significant role in deliveringEuropean energy and climate change objectives

41 TSOs (among whom swissgrid) from 34 countries;530 million people; 910 GW gen.; 300 000 km transm.

ENTSO-E Organizational Structure

What are the tools needed for infrastructure development?

1. The EC’s Infrastructure Legislation! Transmission line permitting in <3 years with one-stop shops

Transmission regulatory improvements for better financing

The ENTSO-E TYNDPs with better and better cost-benefit methodologies as the basis for “Projects of Common Interest”

2. A 2030 and 2050 modular transmission plan for a Electricity Highways system A 3-year R&D study with TSOs + broad consortium for the definitive 2050 grid study Major changes in electricity generation and use major changes in transmission

Need to know soon whether to introduce a higher voltage level, of which kind

Transmission becomes cheaper and more efficient (less losses, less land needed) at higher voltage

3. And: Public acceptance campaigns by MS governments for Electricity Highways, linking European infrastructure to their daily needs

Excursion: what does an Electricity Highways system mean? Examples exist (China, USA, Brazil, Korea): 750, 765 or even 1000 kV AC, 800 kV DC, but key

technology still missing (DC breakers)

May make sense for corridors thousands of km long for 3, 5 or more GW per corridor

...but only if planned with long-term, European view – each corridor otherwise optimal with 400 kV AC

Must be managed in integrated way with the existing 400 kV-based European transmission system (secure operations, market, planning)

Why does it take 3 years? The market can and will decide the generation mix but transmission reacts to generation decisions

Long-term scenarios for relative costs of PV, offshore wind, gas w/ CCS, nuclear are highly uncertain

The flexibility, reserves or storage needed to balance RES fluctuations = crucial for security of supply

...and this interplays with the Electricity Highway planning

What are the tools needed for infrastructure development (2)

The Modular Development Plan on pan-European Electricity Highways System 2050 – MoDPEHS

ENTSO-EEC

MoDPEHS

Regulators (+ Florence Forum)

PRIMESKEMA

EEGIDii RGI

FOSGMEDGRID

NSCOGI

Related external Study Work

Internal Study Work

• EIP• Energy

Roadmap 2050

OPTIMATETWENTIESMEDRINGREALIZEGRID

EWISIPS/UPS

PRIMES

• TYNDP • RIPs• NS2030• R&D Plan

• SO&AF

Monitoring Body

Parallel platforms with involvement of ENTSO-E members

SteerCo of EH Stakeholder Platform

SUSPLAN

METSO

ENTSO-E Roadmap - the MoDPEHS approach

The ENTSO-E Study Roadmap was published in July 2011 (after a consultation process).

The realization of the study program will be done by a large consortium (TSOs, DSOs, universities, institutes, manufacturers…). First comprehensive electricity highways concept is intended to be available by end 2014. Context: SET-Plan, EEGI, ENTSO-E R&D Plan

The Timeline: Main steps towards MoDPEHS

Broad consultation of Study Roadmap

Start of dedicated FP7 project

Stakeholder involvement, dissemination of intermediate results

Modular Development Plan on Pan-EuropeanElectricity Highways System 2050MoDPEHS

Q1-Q2 2011

Mid 2012

End 2014

Preparation of Study Roadmap

Q3-Q4 2010

Q2-Q3 2011

Consortium establishment and submission of FP7 proposal

Technological issues

Economical/financialissues

Political/sociopoliticalissues

• Technical feasibility of existing transmission concepts

• Proper technology; - AC, DC (also reliable multi-

terminal solutions) and mixed

- OHL / cables / etc

• Power quality / Level of SoS

• Voltage level / EMF

• Upgrade of existing HV lines to UHV AC/DC

• Technological improvements

• Electricity storage

• Power reserve margin

• Level of reliability

• Different generation and load scenarios

• Cost/benefit (business case) of scenarios

• Electricity prices

• Financial demand per scenario

• Realization and ownership of the Supergrid

• European funding

• Potential investors

Supergrid

• Legal and regulatory framework

• Social acceptance / Public support of the Supergrid

• Permitting processes, harmonization of national rules

• European policy on Demand Side Management

• New areas to be incorporated; e.g. MENA, Russia, Nordic

• Political stability of regions

• Risk of terrorists attacks

Technological issues

Economical/financialissues

Political/sociopoliticalissues

• Technical feasibility of existing transmission concepts

• Proper technology; - AC, DC (also reliable multi-

terminal solutions) and mixed

- OHL / cables / etc

• Power quality / Level of SoS

• Voltage level / EMF

• Upgrade of existing HV lines to UHV AC/DC

• Technological improvements

• Electricity storage

• Power reserve margin

• Level of reliability

• Different generation and load scenarios

• Cost/benefit (business case) of scenarios

• Electricity prices

• Financial demand per scenario

• Realization and ownership of the Supergrid

• European funding

• Potential investors

Supergrid

• Legal and regulatory framework

• Social acceptance / Public support of the Supergrid

• Permitting processes, harmonization of national rules

• European policy on Demand Side Management

• New areas to be incorporated; e.g. MENA, Russia, Nordic

• Political stability of regions

• Risk of terrorists attacks

Technological issues

Economical/financialissues

Political/sociopoliticalissues

• Technical feasibility of existing transmission concepts

• Proper technology; - AC, DC (also reliable multi-

terminal solutions) and mixed

- OHL / cables / etc

• Power quality / Level of SoS

• Voltage level / EMF

• Upgrade of existing HV lines to UHV AC/DC

• Technological improvements

• Electricity storage

• Power reserve margin

• Level of reliability

• Different generation and load scenarios

• Cost/benefit (business case) of scenarios

• Electricity prices

• Financial demand per scenario

• Realization and ownership of the Supergrid

• European funding

• Potential investors

Supergrid

• Legal and regulatory framework

• Social acceptance / Public support of the Supergrid

• Permitting processes, harmonization of national rules

• European policy on Demand Side Management

• New areas to be incorporated; e.g. MENA, Russia, Nordic

• Political stability of regions

• Risk of terrorists attacks

3-year study programe

In line with

Energy Infrastructure

Package

Composition of the consortium

26 direct partners

AMPRION

ELIA Gr.

RTE(incl. overall

coordination)

REN

ČEPS

TERNA

SWISSGRID

RG NS

RG BS via 50HzT

RG CSW

RG CCE

RG CCS

RG CSE

WP TSOs Leaders

TSOs Partners

APG

RGs representation

ENTSO-E

Energinet.dkHTSO

REE

PSE Operator

Svenska Kraftnät

TRANSELECTRICA

7 TSOs 3rd Party Relationship

EKC

Options TPA

Participating or Represented in the Steering Committee

Regional and contractual representation by the TSO Partnerse-HIGHWAY2050

IPE

3rd Party Relationship

Project application: e-Highway2050

OBJECTIVE OF E-HIGHWAY2050 The overarching goal of the e-Highway2050 project is to

develop the foundations of a modular and robust expansion

of the pan-European network from 2020 to 2050 which will be

required to be in line with the three European energy policy

pillars.The project aims at developing mid to long term planning approaches at European level, supported by R&D activities, and implementing the 5 following steps

1. To frame the scope of an ENTSO-E 2050 transmission infrastructure plan

2. To detail the candidate grid architectures able to meet the challenges of electricity markets between 2020 and 2050.

3. To validate a portfolio of technologies, which will impact directly or indirectly the grid architecture studies.

4. To detail the non-technical drivers and barriers which new grid architectures must overcome.

5. To study the governance issues raised by some of the candidate architectures.

6. To perform socio-economic analyses of the candidate grid architectures.

7. To involve stakeholder groups at all stages of the scenario-based planning process.

8. To improve and experiment a long term planning methodology able to circumvent the limitations of existing scenario-based techniques.

9. To disseminate the project results.

Detailed objectives of the project

Work packages and Leaders

RSE

WP1

WP2

WP3

WP4

WP5

WP6

WP7

WP8

WP9

WP10

LeadersSintef

Amprion

REN

Technofi

Elia Gr

RTE

ENTSO-E

DENA

RTE

The overall Governance Structure as proposed

Effective control and monitoring measures ensure efficient working procedures of the highly complex and interrelating Work Packages.

Governance of the project (2/2)

2050ElectricityHighways

Effective control and monitoring measures ensure efficient working procedures of the highly complex and interrelating Work Packages.

ENTSO-E involvement via monitoring body

Stakeholder involvement

Generation mix

Storage Cap.

RES incentives

Market principles

Technical solutions

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X

X

X

X

X

X

XX

Generation mix

Storage Cap.

RES incentives

Market principles

Technical solutions

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X

X

X

X

X

X

XX

Generation mix

Storage Cap.

RES incentives

Market principles

Technical solutions

?????

?????

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

WP 1: Setting boundaries in multi-dimensional scenario room

Generation mix

More relevant dimensions xx, yy, zz

Technology pathways

Market principles

Policy pathways

Regulation scheme

Legal framework

Social acceptance

2030

2040

…

2050

Electricity Highways 1st Information Meeting | Jean Verseille | 29.02.12 | Page 17 of 19

Generation mix

Storage Cap.

RES incentives

Market principles

Technical solutions

?????

?????

X

X

X

X

X

X

XX

Generation mix

Storage Cap.

RES incentives

Market principles

Technical solutions

?????

?????

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

Generation mix

Storage Cap.

RES incentives

Market principles

Technical solutions

?????

?????

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

WP 2: Definition of working scenarios within the defined boundaries.

XX X

XX

X

XX

2030

2040

2050

…

Generation mix

More relevant dimensions: xx, yy, zz

Technology pathways

Market principles

Policy pathways

Regulation scheme

Legal framework

Social acceptance X

X

XXX

XXXX

ENTSO-E paves the way to MoDPEHS

2010 205020302020

TYNDPNSCOGI

MoDPEHS

Planned projects Envisaged projects

Possible projects

2050 Energy Pathways (National analysis)FP7 Projects (Susplan, Realisegrid, Twenties, Optimate,…..)….

TSOs PlanEU Policies

Time

Possibilities

For 2020 updated North Seas grid analysis shows that the links identified in the pilot TYNDP are sufficient

First analysis shows that 2030 offshore wind capacities (80 GW) demand new thinking

Grid developments in North Sea

2030 offshore wind capacities demand new thinking

RadialRadial

International co-ordinationInternational co-ordination Fully integrated solutionFully integrated solution

Local co-ordinationLocal co-ordinationRadial

International coordination Fully integrated solution

Local coordination

Smart grids vision 2020: by 2020 European grids need to...

1. Actively integrate efficient new generation and consumption models Integrate RES at the different voltage levels

Enable and integrate active demand from end users

Enable & integrate new electricity uses: electric vehicles, heat pumps

Enable energy efficiency by end users

Enable new business opportunities and innovations for market players

2. Coordinated planning and operation of the whole electricity network For the pan-European transmission network

Between transmission and distribution networks

3. Study and propose new market rules to maximize European welfare New market rules at national and European levels

Smart grids from the TSO view point…… enable demand response to bid into Europe-wide intra-day and balancing markets.

Conclusion: The future grids must be European, and they must be very smart

• EU policies on security of supply, market, and RES integration call for:• Massive development of transmission grids• ENTSO-E’s first TYNDP was a timely initiative to enable the policy debate

• Smart grid solutions and e-Highways2050 prepare for the future systems • ENTSO-E R&D Plan, EEGI are key to reaching the 20/20/20 goals• Complete communication/control chain TSOs-DSOs-suppliers-customers

• Permitting and public acceptance is a central issue: • Without radical changes policy objectives will not be met

• A huge financial effort requires new financing tools and regulatory stability

ENTSO-E works to prepare the future power system associated with increasing variable RES generation, increasing need for demand response, increasing energy efficiency and steeply decreasing CO2 emissions.