electricity efficiency in californias future mark d. levine sacramento, ca may 24, 2006
TRANSCRIPT
Electricity Efficiency in Electricity Efficiency in California’s FutureCalifornia’s Future
Mark D. Levine
Sacramento, CA
May 24, 2006
Ancient HistoryAncient History
DivRev05 page 3
CA Peak Power: Testimony by Goldstein and Rosenfeld CA Peak Power: Testimony by Goldstein and Rosenfeld Dec 1974, updated to show actual peak demand in 1985Dec 1974, updated to show actual peak demand in 1985
HistoryHistory
DivRev05 page 5
Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(kWh/person)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
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84
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86
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88
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90
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92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
California
United States
Per Capita Electricity Sales Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(not including self-generation)
DivRev05 page 6
California Electricity Demand 1980-2004California Electricity Demand 1980-2004
Average annual growth rate: 2.0%
DivRev05 page 7
California Population 1980-2004California Population 1980-2004
Average annual growth rate: 1.8%
DivRev05 page 8
Annual Spending on Electrical Energy Annual Spending on Electrical Energy Efficiency (1976-2002)Efficiency (1976-2002)
CEC Staff Report “Proposed Energy Savings Goals for Energy Efficiency Programs in California” (2003)
DivRev05 page 9
Review of Energy Conservation Funding Review of Energy Conservation Funding and Savings Cycles Over the Last 27 Years and Savings Cycles Over the Last 27 Years
CEC (2005)
The FutureThe Future
DivRev05 page 11
Energy Efficiency Program Effects Energy Efficiency Program Effects Reported in Western Utility Resource PlansReported in Western Utility Resource Plans
• The majority of energy-efficiency program activity is projected to occur in California and the Pacific Northwest
• Note: results are not normalized for utility size
Avi
sta
BC
Hyd
ro
Idah
o Po
wer
Nev
ada
Pow
er
NW
E
Paci
fiCor
p
PGE
PSE
PG&
E
SCE
SDG
&E
Sier
ra P
acifi
c
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Ann
ual E
nerg
y Sa
ving
s (G
Wh) 2004-2008
2004-2013
DivRev05 page 12
Impact ofImpact of EE programs in reducing utility load EE programs in reducing utility load growth (2004-2013)growth (2004-2013)
• Utilities’ forecasted load growth without energy efficiency ranges from 1.1% to 2.4% annually• The three CA utilities expect to reduce electricity growth to <0.5%/year (by >75% from base case expectations)
over coming 10 years!
Avi
sta
BC
Hyd
ro
Idah
o Po
wer
NW
E
Paci
fiCor
p
PGE
PSE
PG&
E
SCE
SDG
&E
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%A
nnua
l Ene
rgy
Load
Gro
wth
(%
)
T otal Energy Requirements
Adjusted Forecast (net of incremental program effects)
DivRev05 page 13
Population Forecasts (2005-2050)Population Forecasts (2005-2050)
DivRev05 page 14
Historical Spending on Electrical Energy Historical Spending on Electrical Energy Efficiency (1976-2002)Efficiency (1976-2002)
CEC Staff Report “Proposed Energy Savings Goals for Energy Efficiency Programs in California” (2003)
Projected Spending on Electrical Energy Projected Spending on Electrical Energy Efficiency (2006-2008)Efficiency (2006-2008)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
2006 2007 2008
Program Years
Dramatic Increase in CA Utility Dramatic Increase in CA Utility DSM Program (2006-2008)DSM Program (2006-2008)
A power plant is a building!
67% of oil used in U.S. goes to vehicles (54% in 1976)
71% of electricity goes to buildings(60% in 1976)
Buildings elec is fastest growing element, 1976-2002: Multiple is 2.1
Spaghetti diagram for U.S., 2002
A larger fraction of electricity goes to buildings in rich countries
“Buildings Electricity” = 100% Commercial and Residential + 15% Industrial + 10% Agricultural.
Data provided by Paul Waide, graphics by Shoibal Chakravarty
All data are for 2002 except U.S. 1976 point
Buildings Electricity as a Fraction of Total Electricity: Dependence on GDP-PPP/capita
World
Non-OECD
OECD
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 10 20 30 40Thousands
GDP-PPP/capita (1995 US Dollars)
Bu
ild
ing
s E
lec
tric
ity
Us
e
World
Non-OECD
Africa
Latin America
Asia exc. China
China
Former SU
non-OECD Europe
Middle East
OECD
Mexico
Japan+Korea
USA+Canada
OECD Europe
Australia+New Zealand
USA (1976)
Weighted Regression Fit(R^2 = .666)
U.S.1976
U.S.2002
All data are for 2002 except U.S. 1976 point.Areas of points: proportional to populations.
BackupBackup
DivRev05 page 18
Electricity Consumption per Capita Electricity Consumption per Capita (1960-2001)(1960-2001)
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
kWh
U.S.
California
Western U.S. (less CA)
Source: EIA, CEC
DivRev05 page 19
Statewide Electricity Consumption per Statewide Electricity Consumption per Capita (1980-2016)Capita (1980-2016)
CEC Staff Final Report September 2005 CEC-400-2005-034-SF-ED2
DivRev05 page 20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
year
Inte
nsi
ty (
tho
usa
nd
Btu
s p
er $
mea
sure
d in
yea
r 20
00 $
)
US down to 54% of 1973 intensity
California down to 46% of 1973 intensity
54%
46%
Figure 3
Energy Intensity – California and the Energy Intensity – California and the United StatesUnited States
DivRev05 page 21
Statewide Natural Gas Consumption per Statewide Natural Gas Consumption per Capita (1980-2016)Capita (1980-2016)
CEC Staff Final Report September 2005 CEC-400-2005-034-SF-ED2