electric vehicles & consumers - energy...• 2002-2005 fuel cell vehicles and consumers (toyota...

Electric Vehicles & Consumers

Stanford April 14, 2010

Tom TurrentinePH&EV Research Center, Institute of Transportation

Studies,UC Davis

Presenter

Presentation Notes

I first want to explain the title. The idea of transformation here is primarily about moving away from fossil fuels as opposed to a complete change in auto-mobility, which might entail things like flying cars or no cars at all. But even this limited idea is really a transformation, as most of the pathways require some changes in how people use cars, think about their cars, and live their lives. I draw today on my experience as a University researcher for over twenty years, exploring consumer response to alternative fueled vehicles. Shift slides

PH&EV Research Center

20 years of hands on studies on consumers & alternative fuels at ITS • 1988 Diesels in California• 1989-1990 Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles in New Zealand & Canada• 1991-1996 Electric vehicles in Calif. (interviews, surveys and test drives)• 1996-2001 Neighborhood EVs & City Electrics (Nissan Hypermini project)• 2002-2004 Consumers & fuel economy decisions• 2002-2005 Fuel cell vehicles and consumers (Toyota Highlander FCHEV)• 2003-2006 Hybrid buyers studies (Ford Escape, Prius, Highlander, Honda

Insight, Civic, Accord, Nissan Altima)• 2007-10 PHEV drivers (national survey and converted Priuses in households)• 2009-10 BEV drivers (BMW MINI E) • 2010-12 BEV charging behavior with ETEC/Nissan in San Diego• 2010-13 PHEV P-ups in SF city fleets, Chrysler• 2010-12 BEVs in Shanghai (VW)

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Just a bit about the 20 years - I began my anthropology career before 1988, working in small villages in the Andes, studying farming and food systems. And I need to acknowledge some major English influence on my thinking. One two British social scientist, Anthony Giddens and Mary Douglas And my first car was a 1959 Triumph TRA 3, which was tons of funs and taught me about basic automotive electrical systems. I got involved in alternative fueled and designed vehicles at UC Davis, where I have worked along side engineers and transport researchers for the past 20 years, starting this work standing in natural gas refueling stations in Auckland New Zealand, and like most anthropologists, talking to as many local persons as I could to get as sense of what they thought about NGVs . After that , California began an experiment in 1990 called the Zero Emissions Vehicle mandate, and suddenly, electric drive vehicles became the center of attention. My colleagues and I conducted several years of research on markets for electric vehicle, talking with EV hobbyists who essential built or converted their own EVs. , and running alternative fueled vehicle drive clinics with hundreds of California households, visiting about 100 California households to see if Evs would fit into their lifestyles, and conducting surveys to measure the market size. I had never seen electric vehicles , but my first big lesson about EVs, was that of the three vehicles, drive clinic participants back in 1991 found the EVs most interesting, event thought the vehicle we used at the time were quite limited in range and speed. The EVs seemed to represent something of the future to them while NGVs and methanol vehicles seemed less interesting. In the late 90s, a number of auto-manufacturers placed several thousand Evs in Califrornia for testing in fleets and households, and pursuaded the state that EVs were not ready. Many of you have seen the movie who killed the EV which is one We have conducted since then a number of research projects and surveys around alternative fueled vehicles since then, with Fuel Celled Vehicles and hybrids Most recently we have been working with BMW on their MINI E deployment. In fact I just came from a week of 2 hour interviews with BMW MINI E households in Los Angeles….

The biggest change in automotive design is electric drive & the historical nexus of climate change and oil security/supply.

“Nobody ever made a movie about Who Killed the Methanol Vehicle”

Shannon Arvizu, Columbia PhD student doing a

sociology thesis on EV social movement.

BMW MINI E program is first major EV consumer experiment in US since Nissan Hypermini & RAV 4

EV (OK Tesla as well)

• 1-year lease at >$900/mo.

• In-home charging stations (no public charging)

• Out of 550 MINI Es worldwide, 450 in US

Presenter

Presentation Notes

This slide could replace slide #2?

MINI E Household Samples

Non-UCD Sample

• 189 private households in LA and NY/NJ

UCD Sample

• 54 volunteers (44 LA /10 NY/NJ)

• Largely affluent - multi-vehicle households

• 47 men / 10 women: Mostly 35-55+ (3 younger)

• 1/3 prior MINI owners; 1/2 had hybrid experience; 1/4 had EV experience

• Many car aficionados, some green buyers

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Affluent – Professionals (MDs, lawyers), consultants, business owners, investors, movie industry, retired professionals Car aficionados Why they got MINI Es – some green buyers, social networks important (e.g. kids influencing parents)

Data Collection Tools

Non-UCD Sample• Online survey by BMW in

June 2009 (n = 189)

• Online survey by UCD in October 2009 (n = 72)

• Journal entries

• Blogs

• Facebook

UCD Sample• Phone interview (June 2009)

• Online BMW survey (July 2009)

• Online UCD survey (Sept-Oct 2009)

• Diaries, activity space maps, home interviews (Aug 2009-May 2010)

• Blogs & Facebook

Presenter

Presentation Notes

After this slide we focus on UCD sample

Topics for today• Response to drive feel

• Response to range limits (range anxiety???)

• Response to charging times and networks

• The human machine interface

• Response to environmental attributes of EVs

And, will EVs succeed in the market despite serious shortcomings and high costs?

Almost all drivers in our studies say they like the feel and sound of electric drive

•Drive test in Pasadena•Hypermini test in Davis•BMW MINI E project

• 84% (48) will use MINI E on daily commute

• 72% (41) say round trip will be between 0-55 miles.

• 8 said round trip between 56 and 110 miles.

• 35% stated they will use MINI E daily

• 58% say they will use 3-6 times per week-

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0-50 51-100 101-150

151-200

201-250

251-300

301-400

401-500

501-600

Estimated miles for MINI E per week

Number of households

Hoo ooo UCD oooooo oooooo oo ooo MINI Eo

Most users in UCD study want more range, but say they are satisfied with 100 miles

Presenter

Presentation Notes

I put the “normal” (i.e. comfort) range on here, but could remove and just compare optimal vs bad.

Maybe 3 ways to characterize drivers travel patterns and range issue in BMW study

• 100 miles of range and home based charging easily covers all travel needs (1/3 sample)

• 100 miles of range covers more than 90% of their old drive patterns (1/2 sample), some minimal adaptations, add trips to EV

• Some drive at or near 100 miles weekly, must make adaptations like careful planning, charging at work, or elimination of trips (less than 1/3 sample).

Car 1 (ICE) – Relative Total Trips Car 2 (ICE) - Relative Total Trips

• Before Household receives their EV, each car performs a fairly routine set of trips labeled here as Trips w-z and Trips a-d

• Trip w

• Trip x

• Trip y

• Trip z

• Trip a

• Trip b

• Trip c

• Trip d

Response to range limitations: Households reallocate household trips with MINI E

In Person Inverview Observations:

Below illustrates how households change…

•For some households, a small portion of trips cannot be done with the MINI E Primary reasons:•Cargo/Passenger space•Range

Car 2 (ICE) - Relative Total Trips

• Trip w

• Trip x

• Trip y

• Trip z

• Trip a

• Trip b

• Trip c

• Trip d

MINI E – Relative Total Trips

In Person Inverview Observations:

Car 1 Replaced with MINI

E

Household adaptation to MINI E

• However, Trips are offset from the secondary vehicle with the MINI E when the opportunity is available as well as extra trips not taken before.

• Reasons for this: MINI E is “fun” to drive, environmentally motivated, cheaper operating costs.

• Note: Possible bias toward driving the MINI E often because it is a limited lease period

Car 1 Replaced with MINI E

•New Trips

Car 2 (ICE) - Relative Total TripsMINI E – Relative Total Trips

•Trip x

• Trip y

• Trip z

•Trip c

• Trip d

• Trip a

• Trip b

• Trip w

•New Trips

Car 2 (ICE) - Relative Total TripsMINI E – Relative Total Trips

•Trip x

• Trip y

• Trip z

•Trip c

• Trip d

• Trip a

• Trip b

• Trip w

Car 1 Replaced with MINI E

• We’ve seen individuals expand their MINI E range over time. Factors impacting this include:• Driver experience of exploring the range of their car• Reading and hearing others experience through social networks (facebook, blogs, MINI E

gatherings) • Public Infrastructure

MINI E drivers do more trip planning much more than with gas vehicle

Google maps used by many households to plan a long day

Drivers learn distances to work, to store, to family

Drivers learn terrain (hills, etc…)

Becomes a game to many drivers (not all)

Presenter

Presentation Notes

I’ll see if I can find more to add to this

HEV energy displays and HEV influence driver behaviors and change their experience of fuel economy

• HEV owners spend lots of time looking at screen in first year

• HEV owners show researchers the screens, not the engine

• HEV owners understand and “value” their vehicle through their instruments

• HEV owners learn how fuel economy varies over speed, terrain, weather

Tai Stillwater, PhD student

New user interfaces are designed by UC Davis to explore the new fuel economy.

• Real time cost per mile:

• Real-time CO2;

• Trip, daily and total average fuel economy

• Electricity & gasoline use compared over time, distance, journeys

Eco-Driving Interface Based on the Extended Model of Goal Directed Behavior

Attitudes & Expected Emotions

Social Norms

Personality Factors

Goal Desires

Perceived Behavioral/ Goal

Control (PBC)

Roundtrip MPG+

My Goal

Current MPG+

< Last Mile >0 1

Battery Charge: 88%

MINI E Drivers develop new relationship to dashboard displays

• Watch “level of battery and miles to go.

• Some watch “regenerative display”

• Would want “integrated GPS system”

Presenter

Presentation Notes

I’ll pull info from our sample about reactions to the display – everything in previous presentation is from the Non-UCD sample

Charging at home meets most needs

• Predominantly nighttime

• Enjoyed feeling of independence, not visiting gas stations, stability of electricity rates

• Most didn’t take advantage of possible workplace charging – not sure about “rules”

Presenter

Presentation Notes

I’ll find some quotes to support some of this and see if we can say anything else about charging. I’ll also be searching for comments on public charging infrastructure for a future version of this presentation, but this will probably not happen before 4/13

Will a public charging network expand EV market?

• As we note, in many cases we find 90% of charging will probably be done at night where the vehicle is parked.

• Night-time charging brings the best benefits to power company capital and in some cases emissions.

• Drivers in Berlin don’t seem to be using public network, some result from 1990s demos (La Rochelle and Mendrisio)

• Fast charging - 80% in 20 minutes - how much does this solve limit of EVs

Environmental Attitudes among MINI E drivers in USA and Germany

• Few in UCD sample believe in climate change or have it as primary concern (very different in Berlin sample)

• In interviews, most concerned about local air quality (Los Angeles in particular)

• A few concerned about battery toxicity

• Lots of uncertainty about impact on CO2 emissions –changing source of emissions (LADWP, SCE) again Germans due to choices have better feel for emissions in power sector

• Stronger interest in fuel security than Germany

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Still looking for quotes for this slide

How big is market for EVs?• In 1995, after 4 phases of studies

Study of EV pioneers

Drive test with 200 households in Pasadena comparing CNG, methanol, and EVs

In depth study travel behavior (with diaries) and household interview

Statewide survey of 550 new car buying Californians (4 staged mail out survey )

And these assumptions: • EVs available in mini-mid sized autos

• With ranges from 60-120 miles

• At prices not too much higher than ICE (up to 2000 more)

Concluded a market of around 15% of new car sales in California

Concluding conundrum……

Very positive response to EV1, MINI E, Hyper MINI .

EVs seem to result in an integrated social expressive, psychological, cultural, technical combination….

It seems that EVs in many ways are the perfect “green” product..expressive and

But EVs remain less practical and expensive..

What will happen?

Change happens: Japan’s market shifted radically last year

Prius now best selling non-K car in Japan most of 2009, Honda Insight was best selling earlier in year

March 2010 = 37,000

30,000

O

Presenter

Presentation Notes

But something significant seems to have happened in the Japanese market, where sales of hybrids seem to have taken off in recent months, although here are some new tax benefits, and lowering of prices. But also, hybrids have been on the market in Japan a bit longer, proving there reliability. Prius is the best selling sedan for several months.

electric vehicles & consumers - energy...• 2002-2005 fuel cell vehicles and consumers (toyota...

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