electric vehicle penetration in indonesia from...

Electric Vehicle Penetration in Indonesia from Economic,

Energy and Climate Change Perspectives

A Joko PurwantoQuarterly Discussion at the Indonesia Clean Energy Forum (ICEF)

Jakarta, 18 September 2019

2018

Outline

• What are electric vehicles?• Motivation: Why electric vehicles?• Assessing electric vehicle penetration’s

impacts on economy, energy and environment (3Es): an ERIA study

• Some conclusions and policy recommendations

What are electric vehicles?Combustion engine to electric vehicles

Source: EEA(2016), Electric Vehicles in Europe

Plug-in: BEVPlug-in: PHEVNon Plug-in: HEVICE

Why Electric Vehicles (1/2)?

Biggest share (42%) in 2018

Strong growth of transport energy demand

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Indonesia Energy Consumption by Sector (thousands BOE)

Industrial Household Commercial Transportation Other

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Indonesia Energy Consumption Growth by Sector

(2008=100)

Industrial Household Commercial

Transportation Other Total

More than 2 times since 2008

Source: Visualization from MEMR (2018) Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of Indonesia

Why Electric Vehicles (2/2)?Transport demand, energy consumption, CO2, pollutions shall continue to growIncrease total stock by more than 2 times

Source: BPPT, 2018: Indonesia Energy Outlook 2018Source: IEA(2017), Authors’analysis

2050 transport sector energy demand = 4.6x 2016

ERIA study (1/10): DefinitionAssessing EV penetration’s impacts on economy, energy & environment (3Es)

• EVs as ASEAN countries 'policies to reduce oil consumption, (urban) air pollution and greenhouse gases (GHG)

• … but EVs shall increase electric power demand

• and shall have economic consequences

ERIA study (2/10): MethodologyComprehensive tool to assess EVs’impacts

Energy analysis modelling suite of the Institute of Energy Economic of Japan (IEEJ)

source: Suehiro, Purwanto, 2019

ERIA study (3/10): MethodologyBottom-up technology assessment model


Type of VehiclePLDV, Bus, Truck, Motorbike

PopulationGDP, etc.

Number of Vehicle Sales

Sales Share Efficiency

Number of Vehicle Stock

Average Efficiency

Annual Mileage

Annual Fuel Consumption

Survival rate

Type of PowertrainICV, HEV, PHEV, BEV, FCV, NGV

Type of fuelOil, Electricity,

Hydrogen, CNG

Socio-economicSituation

Number of Vehicle Sales

average lifetime (year)

50%

ERIA Study (4/10): AssumptionsImproving fuel economy and decreasing EVs’prices assumptions

source: Suehiro & Purwanto (2019)

ICV HEV PHEV BEV

PLDV 12.3 24.6 39.2 49.0

Bus 6.4 9.5 19.5 25.3

Truck 6.0 9.0 19.6 23.9

Motorbike 30.8 - - 115.0

ICV HEV PHEV BEV

PLDV 15.2 28.8 44.2 54.5

Bus 7.6 10.9 21.5 27.7

Truck 7.2 10.3 21.6 26.1

Motorbike 34.7 - - 120.6

Fuel Economy in 2017 and 2040 (km/L-gasoline eq.): Indonesia

BEV = battery electric vehicle, ICV = internal combustion engine vehicle, PHEV = plug-in hybrid vehicle, PLDV = passenger light duty vehicle

ICV HEV PHEV BEV

PLDV 22,000 27,500 38,720 35,200

Bus 67,000 77,050 184,250 167,500

Truck 47,000 58,750 82,720 75,200

Motorbike 1,500 - - 2,400

ICV HEV PHEV BEV

PLDV 22,169 25,347 27,564 24,401

Bus 67,547 74,052 91,378 77,398

Truck 47,384 54,913 54,743 50,238

Motorbike 1,498 - - 1,837

Assumptions for List Price in 2017 and 2040 (US$ in 2010 / unit)

ERIA study (5/10): EV ScenariosMild to extreme scenarios to test

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040ICEV HEV PHEV BEV NGV

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




[Reference (=E-motorcycle advanced)] [Policy Target]

[HEV Bridge] [BEV Ambitious]

Powertrain Sales Share of Cars by Scenario, Indonesia


ERIA Study (6/10): PP ScenariosRole of power generation’s energy mix

Power generation and generation mix


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

REF HEV BEV EMC PT HEV BEV EMC

PG-REF PG-PT

2015 2040

Coal Oil NaturalGas Non fossil

TWh

56% 62% 62% 62% 62%50% 50% 50% 50%

25% 27% 27% 27% 27%

21% 21% 21% 21%

11% 10% 10% 10% 10%28% 28% 28% 28%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


PG-REF PG-PT

2015 2040

Coal Oil NaturalGas Non fossil

[Power generation] [Generation share]

additional generation

ERIA Study (7/10): Energy and CO2

Significant only in a decarbonized systemPrimary Energy Demand and Energy-related CO2 Emissions, Indonesia


0% -2% 0% -10% -10% -13% -9%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200


PG-REF PG-PT

2015 2040

Road Power Generation Others

MtCO2-1% -3% -1% 13% 13% 11% 13%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


PG-REF PG-PT

2015 2040

Coal Oil NaturalGas Non-fossil

Mtoe

[Primary Energy Demand] [Energy-related CO2 emissions]

ERIA Study (8/10): Self-Sufficiency Rate and Net Import BillsNot clear difference in self sufficiency rate but clear impact of BEV on net import bills

Energy Self-sufficiency Rate and Net Import Bills, Indonesia


-13

30 24

11

26 20 20

7

22

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50


PG-REF PG-PT

2015 2040Oil Natural gas Coal

bil. USD189%

116%

117%

119%

117%

120%

119%

123%

119%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%


PG-REF PG-PT

2015 2040

[Energy Self-sufficiency rate ] [Net Import Bills]

ERIA Study (9/10): GDP and CPIStimulated economy but tight supply-demand shall trigger price increase

Impacts on GDP and Consumer Prices, Indonesia


0.5% 0.5%

-0.2%

1.0% 1.0%1.2%

0.2%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%


PG-REF PG-PT

1.2%

6.3%

1.1%

8.4%

6.8%

12.8%

6.5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%


PG-REF PG-PT

[GDP in 2040 (change rate vs. reference)] [Consumer Prices in 2040 (change rate vs. reference)]

ERIA study (10/10): Cumulative (25y) Investment and SubsidyLow carbon power generation needs more investment and subsidy would be need to bridge price gap

. Investments and Subsidy for xEVs, Indonesia


0.3%

0.8%

0.2%

0.8%

0.6%

1.2%

0.5%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


PG-REF PG-PT

xEVs Chargers Power

bil.$

1.5%

4.1%

1.7%1.4%

1.2%

4.1%

1.7%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


PG-REF PG-PT

bil.$

[Investments in xEVs Penetration(additional from reference; 2016-2040)]

[Subsidy for xEVs(additional from reference; 2016-2040)]

Conclusions

• Threat from future self-sufficiency rate drop and net-import bill increase

• Significant amount of subsidy and investment including in power sector

• Charging infrastructure is a key requirement

EVs fulfil various purposes but massive deployment might have negative effects

Policy recommendations

• Harmonize automobile & energy policies• Take a bridging pathway to mitigate negative

side effects• Create a clear long-term vision• Consider country specific path to vehicle

electrification

EV penetration needs realistic and affordable policies

Reference

electric vehicle penetration in indonesia from...

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