electric power considerations in california · e: [email protected] jason j. shepard managing...
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Jason J. ShepardMANAGING PRINCIPAL, CRESA MCS
Cell: 714‐925‐8539E‐mail: [email protected]
Electric Power Considerations in
California
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Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
Agenda
1. Data Center Trends
2. Electric Power Basics
3. “Grid” Reliability
4. Power Cost
5. Carbon & Renewable Power Regulations
6. Summary
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Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
Cresa MCS – Trends
The Great Consolidation
Virtualization
Blade Servers…
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Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
Average Density per Cabinet/Rack
Cresa MCS
Do The MathCabinets/Racks
kW per Rack
Total KW
10 3 = 3020 3 = 6030 3 = 9010 5 = 5020 5 = 10030 5 = 15010 7 = 7020 7 = 14030 7 = 21010 10 = 10020 10 = 20030 10 = 30010 15 =15020 15 = 300
Highest Concentrations per Cabinet – St. Louis (DCUG, Spring 2014)Now In Two (2) Years
1 2‐4 kW per cabinet (35%) 1 4‐8 kW per cabinet (33%)2 4‐8 kW per cabinet (33%) 2 8‐12 kW per cabinet (22%)3 8‐12 kW per cabinet (10%) 3 2‐4 kW per cabinet (15%)
Warm Warmer Hot Really Hot
Highest Concentrations per cabinet ‐ Dallas (DCUG, Fall 2013)Now In Two (2) Years
1 4‐8 kW per cabinet (37%) 1 4‐8 kW per cabinet (30%)2 2‐4 kW per cabinet (35%) 2 8‐12 kW per cabinet (30%)3 8‐12 kW per cabinet (14%) 3 12‐16 kW per cabinet (9%)
What department pays the power utility bill in your organization? (Uptime Institute, 2013 Data Center Industry Survey)
Facilities / Corporate Real Estate 80%
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Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
Electric Power Basics
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Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
NERC: Electricity Generation, Transmission & Distribution
BENEFITS to being located along/near the POWER LINES & SUBSTATIONS.
1. Generation 2. Transmission (Blue Above) 3. Distribution (Green Above)Power Plants• Subject to Regulation• Green Considerations
Sources• Fossil Fuel• Green & Renewable
Getting the electricity to the area.• Subject to Wide Area Disruptions
Transmission Line ExtensionsAbove Ground: ~$___/MileBelow Ground: ~$___/Mile
Your local power utility service.• Where do they stop?• Rates
Distribution Line ExtensionsAbove Ground: ~$___/MileBelow Ground: ~$___/Mile
Substation Construction Cost~$___ per MVA up to ___ MVA~$___ per MVA over ___ MVA
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Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
NERC: Electricity Generation, Transmission & Distribution
230 kV & 115 kV Lines Substation Transformers
Net Electricity Generation: #1 Source: Coal (38.57% )
(2012, US EIA)
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Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
NERC Major Disturbances & Unusual Occurrences (2004 – 2013)
WECC: ___ MRO (MAPP): ___
SPP: ___
TRE (ERCOT): ___ FRCC: ___
NPCC: ___
SERC: ___
RFC (Formerly ECAR, MAAC, & MAIN): ___
Western: __%
ERCOT: __%
Eastern: __%
Total Number of Events: ___
Causes:1. Weather/Flooding Related: __% (__)
2. Electric System Related: __% (__)
3. Fire: __% (__)
4. Crash/Cyber Threat/ Vandalism: __% (__)
5. Earthquake: __% (__)
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Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
Step 1:1,000 Amps @ 480 Volts = ~___ kW
___ kW x 40% Load x 8,760 Hours (in a year) = ___ kW Hours
Step 2:___ kWhrs. X $0.01/kWhr. = $23,302 in Power Cost
Power Cost Analysis: Do The Math
Step 3. Adjust for Load Factor (i.e. percentage of time capacity is in use)40% 60% 80% 100%
~$23,302 for each 1¢/kWhr.
~$34,952 for each 1¢/kWhr.
~$46,603for each 1¢/kWhr.
~$58,254for each 1¢/kWhr.
Step 4:Identify the appropriate ¢/kWhr. and re‐calculate.
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Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
+9.8%
Rate Charts & Increases
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Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
Carbon Emissions & Green Considerations
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Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
Carbone Emissions Reductions• Reduction by 30% (average)
• By 2030• Target is Power Plants• CA: 23.1%
• Clean Air Act• Cap & Trade
29 States have Renewable Portfolio Standards• These are laws (not just goals)
Federal State
Federal vs. State Regulations
CO₂ accounts for 84% of GHG [Green House Gas] emissions in the U.S. with fossil‐fuel power plants being (by far) the largest emitter of GHGs. (Source: EPA, EPA‐542/R‐14‐002, June 2014)
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Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Policies by State – March 2013
RPS Policies:• CA: 33% x 2020 (highest nationally)• NV: 25% x 2025• AZ: 15% x 2025
Questions to Consider:• What is your power provider’s
current generation mix?
• Do they own that generation or buy it from third parties?
• Will your power bill go up as they try to reach the 33% RPS?
• Where can I go to find lower power costs?
• Should I consider other providers’ generation mixes & the state RPS policies too?
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Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
IOU: Investor‐Owned Utility
Data Source/Date Generation Mix Percent Renewable
Southern California Edison (SCE)
Edison InternationalAnnual Report (10K) 2013Filed: 02/25/14
Owned: 21%• 3% (of the 21%) of SCE owned generating capacity is solar.
Purchased: 79%
22%
San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E)
Sempra EnergySan Diego Gas & Electric Southern California GasAnnual Report (10K) 2013Filed: 02/27/14
Owned: 30%• Natural Gas
Purchased: 70%• Renewable: 44%
44%
Electric Power Generation Statistics by Southern CA IOU (2013)
Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
T: 714‐925‐8539E: [email protected]
Cause for Concern?• IOU’s will often supplement their own power generation by purchasing power generation from third parties
such as Independent Power Producers (IPPs)/ Non‐utility Generators.
• If just 12% of power generated by IPPs comes from “Renewable Sources” (U.S. EIA), what type of impact should we expect on pricing as IOUs compete for those limited resources heading into 2020?• What downstream impact does this then have on publicly owned utilities?
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Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
• Renewable generation is now law in California.
• Challenges with electric transmission infrastructure.
• Power costs are going up.
• It’s not just industrial and data center users.
• Properties with substations = lower rates = benefit.
• Properties along power lines = access = benefit.
• Heavy power consumers may leave the state.
Summary
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Jason J. ShepardManaging Principal, Cresa MCS
Q&A
Cresa MCS
Jason J. ShepardMANAGING PRINCIPAL, CRESA MCSCell: 714‐925‐8539E‐mail: [email protected]