electric mobility threat or opportunity?
TRANSCRIPT
Electric Mobility Threat or Opportunity? (for Petrol Station owners and operators)
Introduction
Electric Mobility - Threat or Opportunity?
Actually it’s both and more,
It depends on YOU !!!
Status and Trends
- High Price of oil (increasing trends)
- Global warming and CO2 reduction
- Geopolitical issues (instability in main oil production areas)
Status and Trends Oil Market
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
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86
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92
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Real Prices Low Price (EIA 2010) High Price (EIA 2010) Average Price (EIA 2010) Average Price (EIA 2011) High Price (EIA 2011) Low Price (EIA 2011)
Forecast, trends and real prices – Oil Market
Source: EIA; Thomson Reuters, Petrotec Statistics
High Price
(EIA 2011)
High Price
(EIA 2010)
Average Price
(EIA 2010)
Average Price
(EIA 2011)
Low Price
(EIA 2011)
Low Price
(EIA 2010)
REAL PRICE (Jan-Apr 2012)
102,99 USD/Barrel
Status and Trends Transportation and CO2 emissions
Source: EPA, US Department of Transportation 2010
CO2 emissions allocated to economic sector
Status and Trends Energy distribution
37%
25%
21%
8%
9%
Total energy Source Distribution
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Renewable Energy
Nuclear
72%
22%
5%
7%
Oil distribution by demand sector
Transportation
Industry
Residential & Commercial
Electric Power 94%
3% 3%
Transportation energy source distribution
Oil
Natural Gas
Renewable Energy
Source: EIA, Energy Outlook 2009
Status and Trends Electricity consumption and Market
Source: The future of Nuclear Power, MIT, 2003 Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030, 2011
Electricity demand will increase 25%
over the next 10 Years
Electricity price will increase due to
incorporation of additional taxes
Status and Trends Geopolitical instability in oil production areas
Lybia – Still 300.000 barrels per day
bellow of full capacity.
Syria – About 230,000 barrels are
offline in Syria thanks to the fighting
in the country
Yemen - Nearly 140,000 barrels of oil
are unavailable from Yemen as the
Arabian country battles militants
in its south-west region bordering
the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
South Sudan - Roughly 350,000 barrels
of oil are offline due to a flare-up
in violence in the African country.
Status example in the the beginning of April 2012
Hybrid and 100% Electric Vehicles Constructors trends and the future
All big constructors have announced and released electric vehicles
Automotive started the
revolution !
Hybrid and 100% Electric Vehicles Forecasts and trends
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Plugin Hybrid Vehicles Forecast Compilation
PHEV Forecast Compilation
Trend
Source: ETCACC; JRC/CE; Deutsche Bank; AEA; US Department of Energy; European Parliament; BCG
Hybrid and 100% Electric Vehicles Forecasts and trends
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Battery Electric Vehicle Forecast Compilation
EV Forecast Compilation
Linear (EV Forecast Compilation)
Source: ETCACC; JRC/CE; Deutsche Bank; AEA; US Department of Energy; European Parliament; BCG
Hybrid and 100% Electric Vehicles Sales and history based trends
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00% Hybrid Vehicles Market - USA
Sales of Hybrid Vehicles vs Total (%)
Trend
Source: Hybridcars.com
Hybrid and 100% Electric Vehicles Sales and history based trends
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35% Electric Plugin Vehicles Market - USA
Sales of Plugin Vehicles vs Total (%)
Trend
Source: Hybridcars.com
Where does the Petrol Station fits? EV Charging Technology
Slow Charging for EV’s will not be the solution:
•Residential tariffs will increase
•It is very time consuming and with vehicles with increased battery
capacities will be insufficient
Fast Charge will lead, but:
•Require a lot of power availability
•Need to be installed in a place with dully surveillance
•Will adapt to different standards
•It is “fast” and convenient
The Petrol Station is the place for Fast Charges!
Petrol Station The now
Topology 1
Convenience
Store Car Care
Service
Station
Food and
Beverage
Additional
Services
Leisure
Convenience
Store Car Care
Service
Station
Additional
Services
Car Care Additional
Services
Fuel (Energy)
Topology 2 Topology 3
Big Mall
or
Petrol Stations – The future Where is business?
Food and
Beverage
Service
Station
Store
Car care
Convenience
store
Leisure
Aditional
Services
? ?
Petrol Station – Business Value
50% £?
The Anchor
Energy (FUEL)
Diesel
Gasoline
LPG
Ethanol CNG/LNG
Biodiesel
Electricity
50% £?
Petrol Stations – The future What is business?
What petrol stations have as advantage?
- Included in daily routines of consumers
- Highly accessible places
- Prepared with parallel products and services
- Secure places with supervision and local supporting for costumer
The perfect spot for 10-20 minutes of EV charging as in Fast-Charge?
Why not using the same business model as for regular fuel
dispensers?
Petrol Stations – The future Where is business?
Electricity in Petrol Station – How and When
Fast Charge
Equipment
Local Electric
Energy
Storage
2012 2020 2030
Emerging
technology
PROBLEMS?
Petrol Stations – The future What and where are the bottlenecks?
Where should we act to protect our business?
- Technical Legislation and standardization activities
Chademo European Combo AC European
Petrol Stations – The future What and where are the bottlenecks?
Technical Legislation and Standardization Evolution
Chademo European Combo AC European
Status: Implemented and
progressing in the market
DC:
- 50kW – 400 VDC – 125 A
- 15 to 30 min 80% of charge
Status: In development and
recently agreed with
constructors
AC
- 32A - 480V – 22kW - 4h
recharging time
- 10-16A - 220V – 8 to 10h
recharging time
DC
- 200-400VDC – 200A
- up to 200A
- 10 to 20 min 80% of charge
Status: Implemented and
progressing in the market (32A).
Annouced with Renault ZOE
(63A)
AC
- 63A - 480V – 43kW
30 minutes recharging time
- 32A - 480V – 22kW
4h recharging time
- 10-16A - 220V – 8 to 10h
recharging time
Petrol Stations – The future Problems - Regulation
Commercialization of electricity
- Commercialization status is the most sensitive menace to the
future of mobility business
- Today is not possible to re-sell electricity. Any good reason why?
- Electrical utilities are preparing to reach the mobility market
-Competition and product substitution
Petrol Stations – The future What and where are the bottlenecks?
What has to be done
- Petro Stations have to enter EV recharging market: otherwise,
1 EV sold = -1 customer coming to the station
- Petrol Stations must be able to sell or re-sell electricity
- Union between Petrol Station operators is needed for a review of
actual status – regulations protect electricity companies
- With a correct metrological equipment and a fair operation, there are
no arguments to forbid selling or re-selling electricity in Petrol Stations
- With the right equipment, regulations and business model people
could choose the best offer in terms of true price differentiation per
petrol station
Petrol Stations – The future Changes are already happening…
It’s time to prepare the future
and fight to change the actual
regulations. Otherwise, electrical
mobility will not be a part of our
business and our current
business will decline.