electoral polarization and the business community how to engage
TRANSCRIPT
Electoral Polarization and the
business community
How to engage
Introduction
Marc BurgatVice President of Government Relations
California Chamber of Commerce
History of polarization
Printing Press (1454) Prior books cost $25k
Martin Luther (1483-1546) Protestant reformation Theses reprinted 250+k
200 years of great sectarianism – one of bloodiest times
History Repeats Itself
The Internet Fully commercialized in 1995
Talk Radio Popularity increased in 1990s In 1987, the FCC’s “Fairness Doctrine”
(1949) was repealed Mandated that “controversial issues of
public importance” be presented in a way that was “honest, equitable and balanced”
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight blog, NY Times
Term Limits (and other efforts to avoid a repeat)
Prop 140 (1990) Assembly Three 2-year terms Senate Two 8-year terms
Many believed the imposition of term limits would redirect power to the third-house (lobbyists) Instead, power and influence have been
consolidated by party leadership Term Limits Change in 2012
One 12-Year term
History of “Gerrymandering”Elbridge Gerry (1812)
Power to redraw districts lines fell to the state legislature which has been Democratically-dominated for much of the past half century
Every new map tended to lean toward maintaining the status quo
Some districts were specifically drawn to strategically benefit the electability of the incumbent, such as the “Stockton finger” or Central Coast of California
Redistricting
Prop 11 (November 2008), Prop 20 (November 2010) Created Citizens’ Redistricting Commission Commissioners redrew district lines without
regard to where incumbents currently live or which constituents they currently represent
Districts drawn with an eye to natural geography
Election System Precludes Change
CA incumbents won re-election over 85% of the time in the past several decades
Ridiculous victory margins
In heavily Democratic or Republican areas, incumbents would face no opposition or a weak challenger of the disadvantaged party
Election Change to Foster Change
(and Moderation) Prop 14 (June 2010)
“Jungle” or “top two” primary system
The two candidates receiving the most votes move on to the general election regardless of party
Outcome of These Efforts
38 open seats in the Assembly due to term limits and nonpartisan redistricting 22 Democratic 12 Republican 4 competitive
Incumbents are leaving office or facing the first serious challenges of their political careers
Moderation in action
New election rules and redistricting have produced 20 races with incumbents facing challengers of their same party 11 Democrat vs. Democrat in the Assembly 2 Democrat vs. Democrat in the Senate 7 Republican vs. Republican in the
Assembly *1 Democrat vs. NPP in the Assembly
What This Means
No incumbent here for more than 4 years (Assembly) – 6 Years (Senate)
The new crop of Legislators will be here for 12 years – Power shift
Business must get involved in primary and before! Critical to moderate Legislature for future economic
health JobsPAC engaged Engage before you need something Everybody has to work to get to know new Legislators Prop 32…
Thank you
Marc BurgatVice President of Government Relations
California Chamber of Commerce