Elections and the Media

AP U.S. Government and Politics

Unit 4

Year Winner Party % PV Won (MofV)

1964 Lyndon Johnson Dem 61.1% (22.6%)

1968 Richard Nixon Rep 43.4% (0.7%)

1972 Richard Nixon Rep 60.7% (23.2%)

1976 Jimmy Carter Dem 50.1% (2.1%)

1980 Ronald Reagan Rep 50.8% (9.7%)

1984 Ronald Reagan Rep 58.8% (18.2%)

1988 George H.W. Bush Rep 53.4% (7.7%)

1992 Bill Clinton Dem 43.0% (5.6%)

1996 Bill Clinton Dem 49.2% (8.5%)

2000 George W. Bush Rep 47.9% (-0.5%)

2004 George W. Bush Rep 50.7% (2.5%)

2008 Barack Obama Dem 52.9% (7.1%)

Seats Gained/Lost in Midterms

Congressional Approval Ratings

Nancy Pelosi

Year % of Vote WonApproval Rating

(Pelosi)

Approval Rating

(Congress)

2006 80.4%44%

(before Speakership)

21%

2008 71.9% 42% 20%

2010 80.1% 29% 16%

“Servicing the Constituents”

Franking Privilege

21st Century’s “Great Mentioner?”

Black Voter Turnout: 2004 vs 2008

North CarolinaYear Republican Democrat Electoral Votes

1988 58% 42% 13

1992 43.4% 42.6% 14

1996 49% 44% 14

2000 56% 43% 14

2004 56% 44% 15

2008 49.5% 49.9% 15

2012Convention in Charlotte, NC

15

Campaign Themes

Primaries can (dis)prove a candidate’s “electability”

• Howard Dean

Howard Dean's Scream (1:27)

• Rick Perry

Rick Perry Gaffe (1:21)

“Super Tuesday”

“Super Tuesday II”

“Romney, Gingrich Lead 2012 Field…”

• In what ways are Iowa and New Hampshire important to a presidential candidate’s chances of winning the nomination?

• What is Romney’s strategy concerning both Iowa and New Hampshire? Why?

• What role do polls play in the presidential primary process?

• What role do the media play in the presidential primary process?

$3 Campaign Check-off

Barack Obama’s campaign pledge…

“If I am the Democratic nominee, I will aggressively pursue an agreement with the Republican nominee to preserve a publicly financed general election. I have been a long-time advocate for public financing of campaigns combined with free television and radio time as a way to reduce the influence of moneyed special interests.... My plan requires both major party candidates to agree on a fundraising truce, return excess money from donors, and stay within the public financing system for the general election....If I am the Democratic nominee, I will aggressively pursue an agreement with the Republican nominee to preserve a publicly financed general election.”

…and reversalObama spokesman Bill Burton said [later] that "public financing" is "an option that we wanted on the table," but added "there is no pledge" to take the money and the spending limitations that come with it. When asked to clarify, Burton said "that Obama would address the issue of public financing when he becomes the Democratic nominee and that it is premature to decide the matter now."But according to reports from a fundraiser last night at Washington's National Museum of Women in the Arts, Obama seems to have decided already. In front of 200 people who'd forked over $2,300 for the privilege of attending, the Democratic frontrunner suggested, in what amounted to a justification of opting out of public financing, that his low-dollar network of online donors effectively represents a "parallel public financing system." "We have created a parallel public financing system where the American people decide if they want to support a campaign they can get on the Internet and finance it," he said. "They will have as much access and influence over the course and direction of our campaign that has traditionally been reserved for the wealthy and the powerful." In other words, who needs public financing when we have online fundraising.

Hard Money vs. Soft Money

CorporationsUnions

Interests

Private Individuals

PAC’s

Candidates

Parties

Independent groups

527 committees

Hard $

Soft $

Campaign Finance ChangesMcCain-Feingold Act (2002)

• banned “soft money” contributions to political parties from corporations and unions

• raised the limit on individual contributions from $1000 per candidate per election per year to $2000 (now $2300)

• restricted “independent expenditures” by corporations, unions; could no longer run an ad referring to candidate by name 60 days before election (rise of 527s)

• required candidates to “stand by their ad”

Citizens United v. FEC (2010)• (no change)

• (no change)

• corporations and unions can spend unlimited amounts on “independent expenditures”; can refer to candidate by name all the way up to election

• (no change)

Campaign Ads

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpmFd25tRqo (Obama stand-by-your-ad)

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtREqAmLsoA (Obama 30-minute infomercial)

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7O85jpuFKT4 (McCain stand-by-your-ad)

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phqOuEhg9yE (Swift Boat Veterans for Truth TV ad)

• http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1451001677352425660# (MoveOn.org TV ad)

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgABYb7AQ7k&NR=1 (MoveOn.org online ad)

Citizens United v. FEC (2010)

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOYcM1z5fTs (Hilary: The Movie trailer)

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k92SerxLWtc (Alito responds to Obama’s criticism)

2008 Presidential Election

The Growth of PACs

Top PAC Contributors to Candidates, 2007-08PAC Contributions to Dems to Reps

Natl Assoc of Realtors $3,729,400 57% 43%

AT&T Inc $2,813,700 45% 55%

Intl Brotherhood of Electrical Workers $2,666,300 98% 2%

Operating Engineers Union $2,650,811 86% 14%

American Bankers Assoc $2,632,393 40% 60%

National Beer Wholesalers Assoc $2,469,000 52% 48%

Air Line Pilots Assoc $2,309,500 85% 15%

National Auto Dealers Assoc $2,280,000 34% 66%

American Assoc for Justice $2,277,500 95% 5%

Intl Assoc of Fire Fighters $2,150,900 75% 25%

Laborers Union $2,023,250 92% 8%

Machinists/Aerospace Workers Union $1,964,300 96% 4%

Natl Air Traffic Controllers Assoc $1,934,975 79% 21%

Credit Union Natl Assoc $1,914,049 52% 48%

Importance of Voter Turnout

Democrats Republicans Indep.Winner of Election

2004Pres. 37% 37% 26% Rep

2008Pres. 39% 32% 29% Dem

2010House 35% 35% 29% Rep

Percentage of the electorate by Party ID

Winning the Independent Vote

Democrats Republicans OthersWinner of Election

2006House 57% 39% 4% Dem2008

Pres. 52% 44% 4% Dem2010House 37% 56% 7% Rep

Percentage of the independent vote won