13th LATVIANPARLIAMENTARY

ELECTION RESULTS

OCTOBER 9 • 2018

REPORT ON THE 13TH LATVIAN PARLIAMENTARYELECTION

Key Facts

Background

– In the 13th Parliament election in total seven political parties overcame the 5% barrier ensuringtheir seats in the Parliament; – The number of elected parties is the highest since the 6th Parliament election, creating one of themost fragmented Parliaments in the recent history; – All three current coalition parties have lost considerable number of seats (now only 27 per cent ofvotes), however there is a considerable probability that they will be part of a new coalition; – This election had low voter turnout rate – only 54.6 per cent of the citizens in the voting ageparticipated – in total 845'196; – The pro-Russian party Harmony won the election, followed by a populist party KPV LV and theNew Conservative Party; – This year there was high popularity for the populist party as they were the leaders in Kurzeme andZemgale regions. Harmony was the most popular in Riga and the New Conservative Party won theVidzeme region; – This Parliament has one of the highest women's representation –  31 out of 100 MPs elected arewomen; – Only one third of current MPs will continue working in the new Parliament.

– Latvian Parliamentary election took place on October 6, 2018; – Latvian government has been right-centric since the 1990s; – In the 12th Parliament the coalition was made from Greens and Farmers Union (right-centric), Unity(left-centric) and National Alliance (right), leaving the largest political force pro-Russian partyHarmony in the opposition; – The Prime Minister will be nominated by the President in November after the coalition discussionsare concluded.

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

19,9%

14,1%13,6%

12,0%11,0%

10,0%

6,7%4,2%

3,2%2,6%

0,8% 0,5% 0,3% 0,2% 0,1% 0,1%

Final Results

The Social Democratic pro-Russian Party Harmony had the highest number of votes – 19.9per cent. They had the highest number of votes also in the last election (23 per cent),however they have always been in the opposition.  

The centrist political party KPV LV (Who owns the state?), the populist and anti-establishment party, gained 14.1 per cent being the most popular party in almost half of themunicipalities. This will be their first term in the Parliament.

The New Conservative Party will also be a new political force in the 13th Parliament earning13.6 per cent of votes thanks to driving anti-corruption agenda. The party is supported toform the new coalition.

The party alliance “Attīstībai/Par!” (Development/ For!) is a liberal political party and earned12 per cent of the votes also being a new political force in the new Parliament and the firstfully liberal party in the Latvian Parliament.  

The National Alliance is a right-wing and national-conservative party and earned their placein the Parliament with 11 per cent, which is less that in the 12th Parliamentary election,where they got 16.6 per cent. 

The green conservative and agrarian political alliance Greens and Farmers Union faced alarge decrease this year taking 10 per cent compared to being the party building thecoalition and holding the PM's office in the last Parliament having 19.5 per cent.

The centrist union of parties New Unity is mainly the rebranded coalition party “Unity”,which faced a large decrease in polls this year from 21.9 per cent in 2014 to 6.7 per cent thisyear. 

Breakdown of mandates

Potential Coalition

– Seven parties will be represented in the 13th Saeima as opposed to 6 in the 12th Saeima; – The largest faction will belong to Harmony, which will hold 23 seats, followed by the NewConservative Party and KPV LV each with 16 seats, the National Alliance with 13 seats,Development/For! with 13 seats, the Greens and Farmers Union with 11 seats and New Unity with 8seats; – With 100 seats in total, any coalition model would need to control 51 seats to ensure a simplemajority in the Parliament.

– The prime minister will be nominated by the President in November, until then the parties have toagree on the new coalition model; – The current coalition of the 12th Parliament (Greens and Farmers, National Alliance  and Unity) haslost its power as they only won 27 per cent of votes; – It has already been discussed that it will be hard to form the new coalition as it potentially couldbe made from up to five parties, making it harder to control by the prime minister; – The most likely model of the new coalition – New Conservative Party, National Alliance,Movement/For!, Greens and Farmers and New Unity in total holding 61 seats; – KPV LV is the only party that has not denied a possibility going into a coalition with the partyHarmony. However, combined they only would hold 39 seats, thus they have to find at least onepartner, which is unlikely. If it happened to be Greens and Farmers Union, as there have beenrumours about their potential cooperation with the Harmony, they would hold 50 seats, which is stillinsufficient to make a coalition, and would expose Greens and Farmers Union to a massive voters'confidence crisis.

23

16

16

13

13

11

8

Harmony

KPV LV

New Conservative Party

Development/ For!

National Alliance

Greens and Farmers Union

New Unity

– The main issues for the possible broad coalition with “everyone except Harmony” and KPV LV arethat the new parties that wanted to decrease power of the current coalition parties as they stillwould have to cooperate. – Thus, the biggest threat for the broad coalition is that not all the election pledges could befulfilled, as in details the parties have too different opinions on various policy issues, however, theyhave similar stand on the key-standpoints thus no radical changes in foreign policy are expected. – Currently, after assessing the first results the political parties have discussed that the governmentcould be built by the most popular political forces after Harmony – KPV LV or the NewConservative Party as none of the parties elected in the parliament are keen to engage Harmony tobe involved in the government formation. – Given that business cycle is now favourable and growth strong, any noticeable impact on theeconomy in the short term is not expected. However, medium-term growth impact is hard to assessfor now, since a lot will depend on the nominated prime minister, and how stable his governmentwill be.

Most Likely Coalition

Total number of seats: 61 Total number of seats: 39

COALITION

16 seats

13 seats

13 seats

11 seats

8 seats

23 seats 16 seats

OPPOSITION

VLADLENS KOVAĻEVS MANAGING PARTNER vladlens.kovalevs@vilands.lv +371 26339109 Brīvības iela 40-39, Rīga, LV-1050 vilands.lv

Harmony