election prediction 2014

A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 20th January 2014 | 1


Monday Mood of India The biggest question currently haunting the great Indian democracy is that who it will be to finally steal the show? Is it going to be a tough fight between two horses? Will a dark horse emerge? Or would it be simply a one-sided, smiling victory for a single party? With just about two months to go into the 14th Lok Sabha Elections, the answers of such many questions are blowing in the wind. More interestingly, the situation is changing rapidly. As a result, what was last week a direct fight between the BJP and the AAP is now again back to its old self, with BJP led NDA emerging as a confident winner.

The trend has been reflected in the results revealed in the current Monday Mood of India- 2, the unique, weekly opinion survey poll by Foreseegame.com. The last Monday Mood of India, dated 13th January, 2014, stated that it was going to be a race between NDA and AAP. Last week, the newly emerged factor of AAP made an impressive entry and hit the Third Front and UPA hard. The emerging AAP even sent out warning signals to the BJP in states like Haryana. This week, however, the game is leveled with Narendra Modi and NDA back in the lead.

So how does the picture look now? Is it going to be a strong and accountable government at the helm? Or is it going to churn out further surprises? The results revealed in Monday Mood of India- 2 are leaning towards the former. In this second set of questions, the Indian electorates have confirmed Narendra Modi as their choicest Prime Minister of India. 62% of the participants chose Modi, whereas, Arvind Kejriwal’s vote share has declined to just 9% as compared to last week’s 22%. It is a straight 13% loss for Kejriwal which does not speak too well about his future. Meanwhile, Mamata Banerjee has increased her vote to 15% as compared to last week’s 3%. So the loss of Arvind Kejriwal is a straight gain for Mamata Banerjee. And at the same time it speaks of those Indian voters who want to have a Prime Minister other than Narendra Modi. Rahul Gandhi’s future too is bleak as his popularity as PM has gone down by further 2% as compared to his last week’s position. And which party is the Indian electorate going to choose as the next government? Well, here too BJP led NDA has emerged as the straight winner. As compared to last week’s 47%, this week 58% of the participants have chosen NDA as their favourite government, whereas Aam Aadmi Party has got 28% vote which is 9% down than its last week vote share. UPA this time has managed to retain its 10% vote.

The swing is clear. The sudden magic spelled by Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi

Executive Summary


Party has faded down considerably and the fact is reflected in Kejriwal’s personal vote bank. Only 9% of the participants have chosen him as the next Prime Minister despite his promise of a corruption less government. It indicates that the people of India wants a strong and accountable government able to take the country forward towards the road of development and not flowery promises. The picture will be certainly getting more interesting as 2014 Lok Sabha poll draws closer.

Foreseegame.com is a unique portal of consumer engagement, which provides a platform for two way communication and engagement between the brand and the consumers through games of foresights. Microsec research is the research wing of Microsec Capital having experienced analysts across the sectors. We used the online feedback from the users of www.foreseegame.com. The users have been registered only on the basis of unique mobile numbers and hence, it provides authenticity and genuineness of the participants. The participation is being monitored by Google.

About 34,000 participants have contributed from all parts of India; however the limitation of this sample is that it is from the group of people who are users of internet.

The Take Away Points:

1. Narendra Modi has once again gone ahead in the race. Compared to last week’s Monday Mood result, his vote percentage is up by 4% this week. But his prime contender for throne, Arvind Kejriwal’s result is not so promising. This week Kejriwal has managed to get only 9% vote in his favour compared to last week’s 22%. Rahul Gandhi’s bad spell continues as he is further down by 2%. Meanwhile, Mamata Banerjee has increased her vote to 15% as compared to last week’s 3%. So the loss of Arvind Kejriwal is a straight gain for Mamata Banerjee. And at the same time it speaks of those Indian voters who want to have a Prime Minister other than Narendra Modi. As before, Nitish Kumar and Mulayam Singh Yadav is nowhere in the race.

The choice of Prime Minister suggests that the people of India has favoured a strong and accountable government. Narendra Modi has once again been successful to weave his magic whereas Arvind Kejriwal is faltering. The pro-BJP vote has remained with

Executive Summary


Modi whereas, the anti-BJP vote has been snatched by Mamata Banerjee to a big extent. The gain for her is at the cost of AAP, Third Front and Congress. 2. The vote swing this week has changed considerably as compared to last week. The BJP led NDA has successfully slowed down the victory march of AAP by eating away 9% of the latter’s vote share. The other political parties too have lost further 2% vote to NDA. NDA, therefore, is up by 11% compared to last week. UPA, however, has managed to retain its marginal 10% vote. 3. The state-wise break up shows that Narendra Modi as the future Prime Minister and BJP led NDA is marching ahead in almost all the states compared to last week’s report. And the states where it is lagging behind, the difference is marginal. So in all probability, the people of India is getting ready to have a BJP led NDA government at the helm.

Let us wait for the next Monday Mood result to know the further change / swing.

Executive Summary


The Next Prime Minister of India

56%

10% 3%

3%

22%

2% 4%

Graph 2: Survey Results as on 13th January, 2014

Narendra Modi

Rahul Gandhi

Mamata Banerjee

Nitish Kumar

Arvind Kejriwal

Mulayam SinghYadavNone of the above

Narendra Modi has once again gone ahead in the race. Compared to last week’s Monday Mood result, his vote percentage is up by 6% this week. But his prime contender for throne, Arvind Kejriwal’s result is not so promising. This week Kejriwal has managed to gain only 9% vote in his favour compared to last week’s 22%. Rahul Gandhi’s bad spell continues as he is further down by 2%. Interestingly Mamata Banerjee has managed to increase her vote percentage by 12% compared to last week. Arvind Kejriwal’s loss is her direct gain. The choice of Prime Minister suggests that the people of India has favoured a strong and accountable government. Narendra Modi has once again been successful to weave his magic whereas Arvind Kejriwal is faltering as he has lost 13% vote compared to last week. The pro-BJP vote has remained with Modi whereas, the anti-BJP vote has been snatched by Mamata Banerjee to a big extent. The gain for her is once again at the cost of AAP, Third Front and Congress.

The Comparison Zone

62% 8%

15%

2% 9%

2%

2%


Narendra Modi

Rahul Gandhi

Mamata Banerjee

Nitish Kumar

Arvind Kejriwal

Mulayam Singh Yadav

None of the above


The Share of Vote: NDA, UPA & AAP

The vote swing this week has changed considerably as compared to last week. The BJP led NDA has successfully slowed down the victory march of AAP by eating away 9% of its vote share. The other political parties too have lost further 2% vote to NDA. NDA, therefore, is up by 11% compared to last week. UPA, however, has managed to retain its marginal 10% vote.

47%

37%

10% 6%

BJP Led NDA

Aam Aadmi Party

Congress Led UPA

Any other


10%

58%

28%

4%


Congress Led UPA

BJP Led NDA

Aam Aadmi Party

Any other


The Comparison Zone as on 20th January, 2014

The Next Prime Minister: State-wise choice

State Narendra Modi (%) Rahul Gandhi (%) Arvind Kejriwal (%) Others (%) Andaman Nicobar 44 2 20 34 Andhra Pradesh 67 10 11 13 Arunachal Pradesh 38 2 40 21 Assam 66 7 15 12

Bihar 78 5 6 11 Chhattisgarh 57 7 25 11 Daman & Diu 44 1 41 13 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 53 0 29 18 Goa 50 15 26 10 Gujarat 69 9 13 9 Haryana 33 1 65 1 Himachal Pradesh 62 10 18 10 Jammu & Kashmir 97 0 2 0 Jharkhand 66 8 14 12 Karnataka 71 13 9 7 Kerala 40 21 17 22 Lakshwadweep 57 0 14 29 Madhya Pradesh 65 15 12 8 Maharashtra 62 10 14 14 Manipur 64 18 0 18 Meghalaya 38 0 13 50 Mizoram 75 25 0 0 Nagaland 57 21 7 14 NCR 66 4 9 21 Orissa 46 11 14 28 Pondicherry 9 0 0 91 Punjab 47 6 34 13 Rajasthan 73 7 9 11 Sikkim 56 19 13 13 Tamil Nadu 75 8 7 10 Tripura 70 8 15 8 Uttar Pradesh 74 5 12 9 Uttarakhand 71 2 16 11 West Bengal 61 9 6 24



The Next Prime Minister: State-wise choice

State Narendra Modi (%) Rahul Gandhi (%) Arvind Kejriwal (%) Others (%) Andaman Nicobar 11 2 86 1 Andhra Pradesh 54 10 28 8 Arunachal Pradesh 14 2 83 1 Assam 52 4 35 8 Bihar 71 6 12 11 Chandigarh 59 4 32 5 Chhattisgarh 70 5 19 6 Daman & Diu 69 3 25 3 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 60 4 31 5 Goa 59 15 18 8 Gujarat 67 10 15 8 Haryana 31 1 66 2 Himachal Pradesh 53 10 24 13 Jammu & Kashmir 78 0 21 1 Jharkhand 59 8 18 15 Karnataka 65 8 15 12 Kerala 42 13 33 12 Lakshwadweep 27 0 55 18 Madhya Pradesh 67 13 12 8 Maharashtra 60 12 13 15 Manipur 50 17 25 8 Meghalaya 17 17 50 16 Mizoram 17 0 83 0 Nagaland 20 10 70 0 NCR 50 8 36 6 Orissa 41 14 13 32 Pondicherry 29 38 4 29 Punjab 51 7 26 16 Rajasthan 69 8 7 16 Sikkim 40 13 33 14 Tamil Nadu 61 9 14 16 Tripura 46 17 21 16 Uttar Pradesh 63 9 16 12 Uttarakhand 77 1 20 2 West Bengal 57 11 20 12


State BJP Led NDA (%) Congress Led UPA (%) AAP (%) Others (%) Andaman Nicobar 42 3 54 1 Andhra Pradesh 57 11 24 9 Arunachal Pradesh 39 2 58 0 Assam 61 8 29 2 Bihar 80 4 15 1 Chhattisgarh 56 7 36 1 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 45 1 51 3

Daman & Diu 59 0 41 0 Goa 51 12 36 2 Gujarat 68 12 17 4 Haryana 25 3 72 1 Himachal Pradesh 49 19 26 6 Jammu & Kashmir 93 1 6 0 Jharkhand 58 11 27 4 Karnataka 56 15 27 2 Kerala 37 14 46 3 Lakshwadweep 67 0 33 0 Madhya Pradesh 62 14 22 2 Maharashtra 57 12 25 6 Manipur 70 20 10 0 Meghalaya 63 0 25 13 Mizoram 100 0 0 0 Nagaland 58 17 25 0 NCR 54 5 40 2 Orissa 45 18 24 13 Pondicherry 7 0 93 0 Punjab 47 6 43 4 Rajasthan 72 10 14 4 Sikkim 50 7 43 0 Tamil Nadu 62 9 23 5 Tripura 48 8 40 4 Uttar Pradesh 70 6 20 4 Uttarakhand 69 2 29 0 West Bengal 57 10 28 5

Vote for the Party: State-wise choice



State BJP Led NDA (%) Congress Led UPA (%) AAP (%) Others (%) Andaman Nicobar 8 1 91 0 Andhra Pradesh 40 10 41 9 Arunachal Pradesh 10 3 86 1 Assam 46 5 46 3 Bihar 58 3 26 13 Chhattisgarh 51 6 27 16 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 42 5 33 20 Daman & Diu 39 0 36 25 Goa 52 7 35 6 Gujarat 57 13 26 4 Haryana 23 1 75 1 Himachal Pradesh 38 12 43 7 Jammu & Kashmir 80 1 18 1 Jharkhand 51 9 33 7 Karnataka 43 14 39 4 Kerala 23 17 59 1 Lakshwadweep 20 0 80 0 Madhya Pradesh 52 9 36 3 Maharashtra 48 13 33 6 Manipur 55 0 45 0 Meghalaya 40 0 60 0 Mizoram 17 0 83 0 Nagaland 18 9 64 9 NCR 38 4 57 1 Orissa 38 17 30 15 Pondicherry 30 37 33 0 Punjab 24 5 68 3 Rajasthan 63 10 21 6 Sikkim 20 0 80 0 Tamil Nadu 49 12 31 8 Tripura 35 13 48 4 Uttar Pradesh 65 7 23 5 Uttarakhand 67 3 29 1 West Bengal 48 11 34 7

Vote for the Party: State-wise choice


election prediction 2014

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