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Page 1: EIU Industry Report Automotive Romania 2013

Industry Report

Automotive

Romania

January 2013

Economist Intelligence Unit 26 Red Lion Square London WC1R 4HQ United Kingdom

Page 2: EIU Industry Report Automotive Romania 2013

Economist Intelligence Unit

The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide.

The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group.

London Economist Intelligence Unit 26 Red Lion Square London WC1R 4HQ United Kingdom Tel: (44.20) 7576 8000 Fax: (44.20) 7576 8500 E-mail: [email protected]

New York Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Group 750 Third Avenue 5th Floor New York, NY 10017, US Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 E-mail: [email protected]

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Copyright © 2013 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, by photocopy, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.

All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it.

Symbols for tables “0 or 0.0” means nil or negligible; “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable

Page 3: EIU Industry Report Automotive Romania 2013

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Editors: Joan Hoey (editor); Ana Nicholls (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: January 22nd 2013 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7576 8000 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: To request the latest schedule, e-mail [email protected]

Industry Report: Automotive January 2013 www.eiu.com/automotive © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2013

Contents

2 Market data at a glance

3 Automotive report

12 Industry publishing schedule

Industry Reports from the Economist Intelligence Unit

Industry Reports provide the Economist Intelligence Unit's forecasts for six key industries along with relevant market analysis. They focus on sectoral and subsectoral demand in the world's major economies, and are updated quarterly, semi-annually, or annually depending on the country (see schedule at the end of this report). The Industry Reports are driven by the country-based macroeconomic forecasts for which the Economist Intelligence Unit is renowned. An Economist Intelligence Unit country expert examines our forecasts for the key indicators in each industry, taking into account economic and political developments, global and regional trends, and market- or competitor-specific factors that are likely to have an impact on the sector over the next five years. The analyst then provides commentary to outline the implications of these trends for companies in the industry. The Economist Intelligence Unit's country and industry analysis draws on the expertise of 100 in-house editors and economists, including industry specialists, and a global network of more than 600 contributors. The historical industry data on which our forecasts are based come from a variety of sources. As with all the Economist Intelligence Unit's analysis, we select the most dependable and up-to-date sources available.

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Industry Report: Automotive January 2013 www.eiu.com/automotive © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2013

Market data at a glance

Automotive at a glance 2008 a 2009a 2010a 2011b 2012b 2013c 2014 c 2015 c 2016c 2017c

New passenger car registrations ('000) 271.0 116.0 94.5 81.7a 66.4 69.4 76.1 85.2 95.8 105.9

Stock of passenger cars (per 1,000 people) 261.0 b 276.3b 289.7b 303.1 317.1 331.5 347.1 363.8 371.3 379.0

New commercial vehicle registrations ('000) 53.1 18.5 13.2 16.0 14.8 16.6 20.2 23.3 27.1 31.0

Medium & heavy truck registrations ('000) 14.5 3.1 4.0 4.8 4.4 4.9 5.9 6.7 7.6 8.5

Retail sales of petrol ('000 tonnes) 1,583.2 1,626.0 1,412.1b 1,328.8 1,243.0 1,169.4 1,121.6 1,084.4 1,058.7 1,040.1

a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

Market opportunities 2008 a 2009a 2010a 2011b 2012b 2013c 2014 c 2015 c 2016c 2017c

Population (m) 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4

GDP (US$ bn at market exchange rates) 204.3 164.3 164.4 189.8a 166.7 178.1 196.9 215.9 247.5 281.4

GDP per head (US$ at market exchange rates) 9,504 7,655 7,666 8,851 7,777 8,318 9,200 10,094 11,583 13,175

GDP (US$ bn at PPP) 271.0 255.3 254.3 266.1 272.1 281.4 299.0 317.9 339.3 362.8

GDP per head (US$ at PPP) 12,604 11,890 11,855 12,413 12,698 13,145 13,970 14,864 15,879 16,986

Personal disposable income (US$ bn) 162.9 126.9b 127.8b 139.7 126.4 133.3 144.3 157.7 179.0 199.9

Median household income (US$) 19,291 b 14,869b 14,811b 16,012 14,336 14,951 16,013 17,318 19,451 21,481

Household consumption (US$ bn) 151.3 118.2 120.4 132.9a 120.9 128.2 139.5 153.0 174.1 194.8

Household consumption per head (US$) 7,040 5,500 5,610 6,200a 5,640 5,990 6,520 7,150 8,150 9,120

Exports of goods & services (% change) 7.3 -6.2 15.1 10.5a -3.4 4.5 12.7 9.3 7.8 7.7

Imports of goods & services (% change) 7.1 -21.4 12.7 11.5a 0.7 3.7 10.2 9.9 9.0 8.1

a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

Key indicators 2008 a 2009a 2010a 2011a 2012b 2013c 2014 c 2015 c 2016c 2017c

Real GDP growth (%) 7.4 -6.6 -1.7 2.5 0.5 1.3 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.9

Consumer price inflation (av; %) 7.8 5.6 6.1 5.8 3.3 4.6 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8

Budget balance (% of GDP)d -4.8 -7.3 -6.4 -4.1 -2.2 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2.1

Current-account balance (% of GDP) -11.6 -4.2 -4.4 -4.3 -3.5 -4.6 -5.6 -7.2 -7.3 -6.4

Lending rate (av; %) 15.1 17.3 14.1 12.1 10.0 8.0 7.0 6.6 6.2 6.0

Exchange rate Lei:US$ (av) 2.52 3.05 3.18 3.05 3.47 3.48 3.43 3.38 3.24 3.14

a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. d Consolidated government budget, including local and social security budgets.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

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Industry Report: Automotive January 2013 www.eiu.com/automotive © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2013

Automotive report (Forecast closing date: January 22nd 2013)

New passenger car registrations, international comparison ('000)

2008 a 2009a 2010a 2011a 2012b 2013c 2014 c 2015 c 2016c 2017c

Romania 271 116 95 82 66 69 76 85 96 106

US 13,195 10,402 11,555 12,735 14,440 15,462 16,744 17,666 18,205 18,923

Japan 4,228 3,924 4,212 3,525 4,546 4,441 4,406 4,332 4,254 4,184

China 6,636 10,321 13,747 14,497 15,579 16,802 17,972 19,202 20,373 21,490

Germany 3,090 3,807 2,916 3,174 3,082 3,063 3,118 3,206 3,195 3,289

a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

• After a steep fall in passenger-car registrations in 2008-12, The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts a modest recovery in 2013, when real GDP growth will remain lacklustre. This will be followed by a stronger rebound in 2014-17, when sales will be driven by growth in real incomes and credit.

• Romania is the fourth-largest vehicle producer in east-central Europe, after the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia. The sector is expected to experience strong growth over the medium term, as investors are attracted by low labour costs, a relatively skilled labour force, investment-friendly government policies and the large network of suppliers and components manufacturers in the country.

• After rising rapidly in 2009-10, exports of passenger cars declined by 2.9% in 2011, before picking up by just under 13% year on year in 2012. Demand abroad for cars produced in Romania, notably from the main manufacturer, Automobile Dacia, should continue to grow strongly over the medium term.

Income and demographics 2008 a 2009b 2010b 2011b 2012b 2013c 2014 c 2015 c 2016c 2017c

Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 204.3 164.3a 164.4a 189.8a 166.7 178.1 196.9 215.9 247.5 281.4

Population (m) 21.5 21.5a 21.5a 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4

GDP per head (US$ at PPP) 12,604 11,890a 11,855a 12,413 12,698 13,145 13,970 14,864 15,879 16,986

Private consumption per head (US$) 7,037 5,505a 5,611a 6,200 5,643 5,990 6,518 7,153 8,149 9,119

No. of households ('000) 7,775 7,859 7,944 8,030 8,117 8,204 8,293 8,383 8,473 8,565

No. of households with annual earnings above US$5,000 ('000) 7,775 b 7,859 7,944 8,030 8,117 8,204 8,293 8,383 8,473 8,565

No. of households with annual earnings above US$10,000 ('000) 6,963 b 6,183 6,233 6,612 6,224 6,479 6,829 7,184 7,611 7,939

No. of households with annual earnings above US$50,000 ('000) 94 b 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 111 242

No. of households with net wealth over US$1m ('000) 0 b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

Overview

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International comparison

• Car ownership, including both new and second-hand cars, increased to an estimated 317 cars per 1,000 people in 2012. This was above ownership levels in Slovakia (308 per 1,000), but below the ownership rates prevailing in developed EU countries (400-500 per 1,000 people). Car penetration is forecast to rise to 379 cars per 1,000 people by 2017.

• Romania is a relatively important market by virtue of its population size. However, new-car sales have slumped from their high of 316,000 in 2007 to 66,436 in 2012, which was more than in Hungary (51,000), but much lower than in the Czech Republic (164,000) or Poland (278,000), where sales have also been falling. After a modest recovery in 2013, we forecast accelerating car sales in 2014-17.

Passenger car registrations ('000)

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1615141312111009082007

Five-year forecast

• New-car sales declined for the fifth consecutive year in 2012, reflecting depressed consumer borrowing and spending. Registrations of 66,436 units in 2012 were the lowest since 2000, and about one-fifth of their 2007 peak.

• Imports of second-hand cars doubled to 175,000 units in 2012, after the government cut the pollution tax by 25%. If adopted, the government's proposal to replace the this tax with an environmental stamp duty that would lower the tax on Euro 3 and Euro 4 diesel cars by 50% and by almost 90% for Euro 0, Euro 1 and Euro 2 cars will have a negative impact on sales in 2013.

• Nevertheless, modest growth in car sales, of 4.5%, is expected in 2013 thanks to pent-up demand, although consumer expenditure will be constrained by the impact of the continued euro zone recession and domestic fiscal austerity. But a return to stronger economic growth in Romania from 2014 should stimulate more robust growth.

• Combined with improvement in road infrastructure, this should result in average growth in sales of about 11% in 2014-17. Credit and real incomes will grow more slowly than before the 2008-09 crisis, however, keeping sales of new cars below the record levels of 2002-07.

Passenger cars

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Industry Report: Automotive January 2013 www.eiu.com/automotive © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2013

Passenger car registrations 2008 a 2009a 2010a 2011a 2012b 2013c 2014 c 2015 c 2016c 2017c

Passenger cars (stock per 1,000 people) 261.0 b 276.3b 289.7b 303.1b 317.1 331.5 347.1 363.8 371.3 379.0

Passenger car registrations ('000) 271.0 116.0 94.5 81.7 66.4 69.4 76.1 85.2 95.8 105.9

Passenger car registration growth (%) -14.1 -57.2 -18.5 -13.6 -18.7 4.5 9.6 12.0 12.4 10.6

a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

Market share

• The largest share of the passenger-car market in 2012 was held by the Dacia brand, owned by Renault (France), with 27.5% of domestic sales. Dacia's sales are recorded separately from those of its parent company, which reports only the sales of Renault cars imported into Romania (6.6%).

• In second place in 2012, Volkswagen (Germany) accounted for 11.3% of imported passenger car sales, and Skoda (Czech Republic) for 8.9%. Ford and Renault both accounted for a 6.6% share, and Hyundai had a 4.6% share. These companies were followed by Opel (Germany) with a 3.4% share, Toyota (Japan) with 3.2%, BMW (Germany) with 2.8% and Peugeot (France) with 2.7%.

Segmentation

• Small cars dominate sales and will remain the fastest-growing segment. The top-selling models in 2012 were the Dacia Logan (13.4%), Dacia Duster (7.5%), Skoda Octavia (4.7%), Renault Clio (3.4%) and Dacia Logan MCV (2.9%).

• The luxury-car market is expected to remain small, with sales rising towards 100 cars per month towards the end of the forecast period, led by Mazda (Japan and the US), Alfa Romeo (Italy), Porsche (Germany), Jaguar (UK) and the Lexus division of Japan-based Toyota.

• Second-hand cars account for two-thirds of total cars first registered in Romania. The used-car market will remain substantial in the medium term.

Pricing

• Access to financing became much more difficult from late 2008 and remained tight through 2009-12. From 2013 credit growth rates will accelerate gradually, underpinning improved growth in car sales.

• Car prices are low by European standards. Since its launch in 2004 the Logan has been Dacia's flagship passenger car, accounting for 13.4% of total car sales in 2012, and is one of the cheapest cars in Europe. The Logan is now in its eight year of production, with entry-level prices for the new model in Romania being €6,990.

• In November 2012, Dacia launched its new Logan, Sandero and Sandero Stepway models. The Sandero is set to become Europe's most competitively-priced car, selling for €6,990 in Romania. In mid-2012 the catalogue price for the Logan Laureate (1.5 litre) was €10,700 including VAT. Cheaper still was the

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new model Lodgy Ambiance (1.6 litres), launched in 2012, with a catalogue price of €10,500 including VAT.

• Dacia's (Mégane-sized) all-terrain Duster, launched in 2010, is the second most popular car model: the catalogue price of the Duster Ambiance (1.6 litre; 4x4 version) was €15,850 including VAT in mid-2012, with prices for the two-wheel drive being about €2,000 cheaper.

Item Price (US$)% of monthly personal

disposable incomeAffordability

rankLow-priced car, 900-1299cc (low) 17,324 3,568 38 out of 58Low-priced car, 900-1299cc (high) 19,681 4,053 35 out of 58Compact car, 1300-1799cc (low) 19,606 4,038 33 out of 58Compact car, 1300-1799cc (high) 23,644 4,869 31 out of 58Family car, 1800-2499cc (low) 30,412 6,263 30 out of 58Family car, 1800-2499cc (high) 34,192 7,041 27 out of 58Deluxe car, 2500cc upwards (low) 64,038 13,188 25 out of 58Deluxe car, 2500cc upwards (high) 106,817 21,997 28 out of 58Yearly road tax or registration fee (low) 58.69 12.09 15 out of 52Yearly road tax or registration fee (high) 184 37.88 22 out of 52Cost of a tune-up but no major repairs

(low) 100 20.66 23 out of 58Cost of a tune-up but no major repairs

(high) 251 51.66 33 out of 58Annual premium for car insurance (low) 515 106.0 18 out of 58Annual premium for car insurance (high) 909 187.3 24 out of 58

Note. Affordability rank: for each country the price of an item as a percentage of monthly personal disposable income is calculated. Countries are ranked according to these percentages. The most affordable country will have the lowest percentage and be ranked first.

Five-year forecast

• After slumping in 2009-10, commercial vehicle sales picked up by an estimated 21.1% year on year in 2011, but they fell by 8% (based on 11-month figures) in 2012. Sales are expected to recover modestly in 2013, accelerating to an average of about 17% per year in 2014-17 as domestic demand recovers.

• Domestic sales of buses grew by about 40% on average per year in 2005-07, and in 2008 sales grew by 28.7% year on year. In 2009 they fell by 74.4% year on year, and in 2010 by 25.4%. Sales picked up by 4.5% in 2011, but fell by 11.5% in 2012. With the market for passenger road transport forecast to grow quickly, bus sales are expected to pick up over the medium term.

Commercial vehicle registrations 2008 a 2009a 2010a 2011b 2012b 2013c 2014 c 2015 c 2016c 2017c

Light commercial vehicle registrations ('000) 38.6 15.4 9.2 11.2 10.3 11.7 14.3 16.7 19.6 22.5

Medium & heavy vehicle registrations ('000) 14.5 3.1 4.0 4.8 4.4 4.9 5.9 6.7 7.6 8.5

Commercial vehicle registrations ('000) 53.1 18.5 13.2 16.0 14.8 16.6 20.2 23.3 27.1 31.0

Commercial vehicle registration growth (%) 7.6 -65.2 -28.4 21.1 -8.0 12.3 21.9 15.5 16.4 14.0

a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

Commercial and othervehicles

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Commercial vehicle registrations('000)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Medium and heavy commercial vehicle registrationsLight commercial vehicle registrations

1615141312111009082007

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

Market share

• The leading players in the commercial vehicles market are well established and the front runners are unlikely to change much over the forecast period.

• Dacia was responsible for 19.9% of total light commercial vehicle sales in 2012 (with sales of the Dacia Logan van accounting for 13.2% of total light vehicle sales). Ford improved its position markedly and was responsible for 15.5% of total light vehicle sales (with the Ford Transit accounting for 9% of total light vehicle sales). Renault was in third place, with 11.6% of total light vehicle sales, Volkswagen in fourth place, with 10.9%, and Fiat in fifth place, with 10.7%.

Major vehicle manufacturers

• The automotive industry accounts for about 11% of total manufacturing output and 9% of total industrial output, and it is likely to make a bigger contribution in coming years as the sector develops further. Vehicles and transport equipment account for 41% of total exports and 35% of imports.

• Romania has four car assembly and engine production plants, compared with 16 in Poland, 11 in the Czech Republic and three in Slovakia. Car production per 1,000 inhabitants was an estimated 16 in 2012, when 326,882 cars were produced. Before the 2008-10 economic slowdown, the industry accounted for 64,000 direct jobs and five times as many indirectly.

• Renault pioneered modern foreign-car production in Romania, taking over the Dacia plant in Pitesti in 1999 and making Dacia the leading producer of low-budget cars in Europe. It is expected to remain the leading player over the medium term.

• In 2012 Dacia manufactured just over 307,000 cars at its plant in Mioveni, southern Romania, down by 6% on 2011, the second year of decline. Some 93% of cars were exported, the highest-ever ratio, as the domestic market slumped (exports to the EU account for 70% of Dacia's total exports).

• Renault has international ambitions for Dacia as the leading emerging- markets brand. Dacia produces completely knocked down (CKD) and semi

Production

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knocked down (SKD) kits for Logan assembly locations all over the world. A right-hand drive Sandero (probably produced in Romania rather than in Morocco) will be sold in the UK—seen as an important market for Dacia—where the presenter of BBC television show Top Gear, Richard Hammond, praised it for performance and value for money (it will cost £5,995 or €7,468).

• Ford is the country's second-largest carmaker. In March 2008 Ford took over Automobile Craiova, which had formerly been owned by Daewoo (South Korea). Ford started production of Transit Connect vans in 2009, but its plans for Craiova were derailed by the 2009-10 recession.

• In mid-2011 Ford announced new manufacturing plans to support a product-led growth strategy in Europe. As part of this, the Craiova plant has been building the all-new Ford B-MAX since 2012 and will manufacture a second B-segment vehicle in the future. The plant began producing the new, fuel-efficient 1-litre EcoBoost three-cylinder engine in May 2012. A second engine, a 1.5-litre petrol unit, will begin production in 2013.

• Ford says that it has invested €650m (US$945m) to transform Craiova into a modern, globally-competitive manufacturing facility. It is one of the most innovative and sophisticated factories in Ford's global empire. The plant has the capacity to produce 350,000 units. Ford hopes to manufacture 30,000 engines this year, increasing to 150,000 subsequently.

Vehicle production('000 units)

Source: International Organisation of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers.

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400

Medium and heavy vehiclesLight commercial vehiclesPassenger cars

11100908072006

• Production of commercial vehicles is still modest, and consists mostly of vehicles under 3.5 tonnes. Production has risen strongly in recent years and reached just under 30,000 units in 2011, but it more than halved in 2012. Exports also slowed sharply in 2012, falling by an estimated 54% in line with the fall in production, after several years of strong growth.

Components

• Romania is a major automotive industry regional hub in south-east Europe, with more than 500 industry suppliers in operation. With few exceptions, they are based in Timisoara and Arad (in western Romania), Sibiu (in central Romania), and Pitesti and Ploiesti (in southern Romania), which have an automotive tradition and skilled employees owing to nearby technical

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universities, and provide better access to markets in the West. With labour costs lower than in existing hubs in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, continuing investment in the components industry is to be expected.

• The main players in the automotive spare-parts industry include some of the giants of German carmaking, such as Continental, ThyssenKrupp, Leoni and Dräxlmaier. Continental has three production facilities and three research and development (R&D) centres, and employs about 8,000 people. It is one of the country's biggest employers, and its expansion is set to continue.

• French car-parts manufacturers, including French tyremaker Michelin, are all present in the market. Pirelli (Italy) has a cables and systems plant. US-based Lear Corporation, Delphi Packard and TRW Automotive have operations in Romania. Sumitomo Electric Wiring Systems (Japan) has three plants. Takata-Petri (Japan) has a plant in Arad producing steering wheels for Mercedes, BMW and Audi (all Germany).

• Initially the impetus came from the availability of low-cost skilled labour, and production was mainly geared towards exports, with about 80% of production from foreign-owned companies being exported. However, international suppliers supply local production as well.

Market demand: motor vehicles and parts

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

0

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10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

US$ m at 2005 constant pricesNominal US$ m

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• Investment in automotive engineering is likely to rise. As well as Renault, German suppliers such as Siemens, Continental, Ruwel and Dräxlmaier, alongside Autoliv (Sweden), have opened R&D centres in Romania, which has a strong tradition in vehicle R&D. The emergence of a research and engin-eering base may open the way for higher value added activities in future.

Petrol prices

• Fuel economy is an important purchasing criterion. As a result, small cars are the leading sellers in Romania. Cars powered by petrol account for two-thirds of the total, but cars fuelled by liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are also popular. The LPG engine supply system reduces pollution and lowers the cost of car use, as the price of LPG is about 60% that of petrol. In 2012 diesel-powered cars accounted for about 51% of domestic and imported car sales, compared with 41% in 2011.

Environmental issues

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• The retail price for unleaded petrol was Lei4.64 (€1.315) per litre in January 2013, which was slightly higher than in Bulgaria and Poland, but lower than in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia, and also lower than the EU average of €1.504.

• We expect global oil prices to moderate in 2013-15 compared with 2011-12 (although they are still likely to be high by historical standards), but forecast rising prices in 2016-17. Rising rates of car ownership are likely to work in the direction of a further, albeit moderate, rise in petrol prices.

Oil price and petrol consumption 2008 a 2009a 2010b 2011b 2012b 2013c 2014 c 2015 c 2016c 2017c

Petrol consumption ('000 tonnes) 1,583 1,626 1,412 1,329 1,243 1,169 1,122 1,084 1,059 1,040

Oil prices (Brent; US$/b) 97.7 61.9 79.6 110.9 112.0 104.5 104.8 107.3 110.0 115.0

a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

Item Price (US$)% of monthly personal

disposable incomeAffordability

rankRegular unleaded petrol, 1 litre (av) 1.34 0.28 38 out of 57

Note. Affordability rank: for each country the price of an item as a percentage of monthly personal disposable income is calculated. Countries are ranked according to these percentages. The most affordable country will have the lowest percentage and be ranked first.

CO2 emissions

• Carbon dioxide (CO2)-related car taxation is applied in Romania, as in 16 other of the 27 EU member states, with the aim of creating consumer demand for fuel-efficient vehicles and efficient fuels.

• Excise duties on fuel and passenger cars have not yet been raised to EU minimum levels, though they are not much below them (at 97% of the EU minimum rate for unleaded and 89% for diesel).

• The government is encouraging investment into production of low-emission vehicles and components on the basis of tax incentives. As of April 2011 electric cars receive a subsidy of up to 20% of the price of the vehicle, up to a limit of €3,700 (US$5,200). Hybrid vehicles are given a discount of up to 10%, with a limit of €1,800. The government will also invest in companies investing in facilities to charge electric cars.

Alternative energy vehicles

• According to some estimates, there could be more than 1m electric cars in circulation in Romania in 10 to 15 years' time. These projections are based on global figures, which suggest that almost 15% of cars in the world will be electric in 10 to 15 years.

• Renault is involved in developing the infrastructure for electric cars, together with Romania's electricity company Electrica, Schneider Electric (France) and Siemens. The four companies are rolling out a plan to create and maintain a recharging network for electric cars.

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• The first recharging point for electric cars opened in June 2011, on Olteni Street, near the Transelectrica headquarters. It is accessible with the use of a personalised card, and payment can be done by subscription, card, monthly bill or a pre-pay card.

• Renault is interested in producing electric cars at its Dacia plant in Mioveni, although by 2016 80% of Renault's electric cars are expected to be produced in France. In 2012 Renault tested a masked prototype of its future ZOE electric car on Romania's roads.

• Mitsubishi (Japan) sells the i-MiEV electric car in Romania for €36,640. Also available are the Citroën C-Zero, Renault Fluence ZE (€15,000) and Renault Kangoo ZE (€21,000). BMW will start selling electric cars in Romania in 2013, when the i3 and i8 models will be available.

• Ford's plant at Craiova began producing the new, fuel-efficient 1.0-litre EcoBoost three-cylinder engine in May 2012. By 2015, Ford aims to produce 800,000 EcoBoost engines in Romania and Germany.

Petrol consumption and oil price

Sources: IMF; International Energy Agency; Economist Intelligence Unit.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Oil (Brent) nominal spot price (US$/b);right scale

Petrol consumption ('000 tonnes);left scale

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Page 14: EIU Industry Report Automotive Romania 2013

12 Romania

Industry Report: Automotive January 2013 www.eiu.com/automotive © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2013

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