EGYPTIAN REVOLUTION, v.2.0January - ?, 2011

© 2011: Ahmad F Ghais, Ph.D.

“Dissent is the highest form of patriotism.” Anon.

2

EMOTIONAL VIDEO CLIPS

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HGfFyqJMrk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xccPG4fFNjg

3

4

QUESTIONS

• Is the Egyptian uprising genuine? What are its underlying causes? Who is behind it? What are its demands? 

• Who holds power in Egypt? Who opposes the uprising?

• What are its implications for rest of world?

• How does it relate to islamist extremism?

• What is the Muslim Brotherhood? Terrorist organization?

• What is US interest in Egypt? How should US policy adapt to new Egyptian reality?

• What are likely outcomes of the uprising?

5

SEMINARS

• Muslims and Arabs: Origins of Islamist Extremism• Islam, Islamism, fundamentalism, extremism, terrorism?

• Muslim/Arab History: Primer for infidels, heathens & unbelievers

• Palestine and the Arab/Israeli dispute• Egyptian Revolution, v.2.0

6

AN EGYPTIAN REVOLUTION?

• Grassroots movement for democracy• Patriotic, secular

• not islamist nor pan-Arab • Unanticipated, long time coming

• New e-literate generation• Intelligentsia, disenfranchised, oppressed

• Have-nots

7

CAUSES

• Autocratic regime

• Political oppression

• Lack of civil liberties, rights

• Poverty

• Lack of opportunity

• Corruption

8

DEMANDS

• Democracy now• Mubarak resign• Regime change

• Constitutional reform• Freedom of information

• Bread!

9

POWER IN EGYPT

• Autocratic constitution

• Powerful president

• Weak parliament

• National Democratic Party (NDP)

• The military!

10

11

THE MILITARY

• Anchors regime since 1952

• Privileged officer class, conscripts

• Regular police

• State Security Police, recruits

12

WHO OPPOSES THE UPRISING?

• 5000 years of allegiance • The military

• NDP• Vested interests: haves vs have-nots

• Arab potentates• Israel• USA?

13

IMPLICATIONS

• Demonstration effect, but local conditions• Opposition to US policy

• Islamism• Autocracies: Jordan, Yemen, Syria, Algeria, Saudi, etc.

• Camp David Treaty• Diminishes AlQaida’s message

14

MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

• Font of Islamist fundamentalism:1928• Promotes social reform

• Grassroots: universities, syndicates, have-nots • Opposes: British rule, secularism, US policy

• Bred extremists• Outlawed off and on

• Renounces violence in ‘70s• Terrorist or patriotic?

15

US INTERESTS

• “War on Terror”

• Pathway to Iraq and Afghanistan

• Access to oil

• Israel’s security

• Ideals: liberty, justice, human rights

16

ECHOES OF AMERICA

• Declaration of Independence; Bill of Rights

• Tea parties 1 and 2

• “Give me liberty, or give me death”

• Civil disobedience: “We shall overcome”

• Circling the wagons

17

BACKGROUND: OBAMA’S SPEECH

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-cairo-university-6-04-09

18

US POLICY

• US aid: military, civilian

• Military ties

• “Orderly transition”

• Muddled, short-sighted, hypocritical

• The devil you know? “Our SOB”

• Living up to our ideals

• “Bug out”

19

20

OUTCOMES

• Is Egypt ready for democracy?• Mubarak is finished; is regime finished?

• Muddle along: Military remain king-makers• Best case: secular, inclusive governance

• Back to barracks• Worst case: Rise of islamist extremism

• Irrelevancies: Israel, Iran