egypt-feb01-feb07-2016

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Egypt Digest - Week ending Sunday January 7, 2016

- Analyst: Carver Freeman

This report is a weekly digest reviewing the state of stability in Egypt. It covers

the period of February 1, 2016 to February 7, 2016. This analysis reviews key

security events, socials, human and environmental incidents, as well as

economic and political incidents that have taken place during the tracked period,

with material impact on stability and security.

Security analysis covers reported incidents originating from terror organizations

or political militant groups that are active in the region. It also includes

government forces activity and operations, extending into a review of major

criminal activity with implications on stability and broad security.

On the social/human and environmental fronts, the report focuses on three

broad categories: the first relates to man-made or natural disasters and crises,

from health-related events, major accidents, and environmental disasters. The

second category relates to government abuses, from questionable arrests to

actions aimed at reducing personal freedoms and human rights. The third

category relates to population reactions to policies and government decisions in

the form of protests, demonstrations, and riots. Labor and industrial activity is

included in this category.

Finally economic data are reviewed in this report, if new indicators are released,

as well as a review of political events, domestic and international, that may have

direct or indirect impact on stability and security.

Copyright & Disclaimer Entire contents, Copyright ©

2016 MEA Risk LLC and its

partners when stated.

Reproduction of this report in

a form without prior written

permission is forbidden. The

information contained herein

has been obtained from

sources believed to be

reliable. MEA Risk LLC

disclaims all warranties as to

the accuracy, completeness or

adequacy of such information.

MEA Risk LLC shall have no

liability for errors, omissions

or inadequacies in the

information contained herein

or for interpretations thereof.

The reader assumes sole

responsibility for the selection

of these materials to achieve

its intended results. The

opinions expressed herein are

subject to change without

notice.

A MEA Risk LLC

WEEKLY THREAT DIGEST

EGYPT WEEKLY THREAT DIGEST. Week ending Feb 7, 2016

© MEA-Risk.com | US+ 508-981-6937 | UK+ 020.3287.9833 [email protected] | Skype: MEA-Risk.Analysts | MEA Risk LLC

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

For the period of February 1, 2016 to February 7, 2016, Egypt

witnessed 61 critical incidents, resulting in 63 deaths, 50 wounded,

and 107 arrests. As a result, the Incidents Index for the period was

2.15, positioning the country as an extreme high-risk zone.

The share of human & social-related incidents reached 47.54% of all

the combined pool of incidents highlighting how governance

problems and insecurity are affecting the country’s social

environment. Security & defense-related events accounted for

16.39% and Terrorism accounted for 9.84%.

The country’s problems have been essentially the same over the

previous period, but this week we noticed a spike in militant activity

claiming the lives of many security officers and troops. Civilians in the

North Sinai region continued to be the target of attacks from both the

military and insurgents, as 10 civilians lost their lives in the Rafah

region due to the ongoing conflict pitting militants aligned with IS with

the Egyptian military.

Equally devastating is the government continued actions against

civilians, essentially aimed at reducing civil liberties and personal

freedoms. Affected by this government policy of zero tolerance to

dissent are not only the Muslim Brotherhood militants but media

figures who have been arrested for ‘contempt’ to religion.

The biggest single event with major media impact has been the

disappearance of an Italian PhD student, who was later found dead.

The assassination of the Italian national is causing some concern for

the Italian government who has been pressuring Cairo to investigate

the case quickly.

On the economic front, Egypt remains highly vulnerable to the drop of

its foreign reserve, which likely forced it to cancel the purchase of wheat from French

exporters, causing an oversupply of wheat in Europe. Because of the additional risk inherent

to doing business with Egypt, the Egyptian government is expected to face more reluctant

suppliers, and should expect higher prices for its imports in the coming months.

Key Infrastructure

Security Event:

Suez Canal Transit System: Egyptian court sentencing this week of 8 individuals to 10 years hard labor over their targeting of ships at the Suez Canal.

Key Travel

Security Events:

Al-Mattariya hospital closes temporarily in protest against police brutality on doctors.

Sharqia region: Swine flu death toll rises to 22

in Egypt’s Sharqia.

First case of Zika.

Italian national found dead


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From a travel perspective, three events are worth reporting. The first was the

assassination of an Italian student, the second is the vulnerability of the al-

Sharqia region to swine flu, and finally we note the first case of Zika. On the

infrastructure front, we note the sentencing of eight individuals to ten years of

hard labor for their alleged attempt to attack infrastructure and ships in the Suez

Canal.

REVIEW

Security Developments

Terror activity in Egypt remains high. Northern Sinai, in particular, continued to be

the principal hotbed of both militant and military activity, but other regions

affected this week from a terror perspective are Giza and Alexandria.

The deadliest militant attack took place in Al-Arish on Wednesday when an

improvised explosive device (IED) went off, claiming the lives of 5 security men,

including an army colonel. Twelve others were injured when the IED hit a troop

transport vehicle. The following day, another IED claimed the lives of two army

officers and injure five low-level troops, in a similar manner than the Wednesday

incident.

Still in North Sinai, two soldiers were killed and two other were wounded when

another roadside bomb went off in the Rafah region, near the border with Palestine.

Soldiers were also targeted in al-Arish, in North Sinai, wounding five troops following

an IED blast. Formerly known as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, militant group Sinai Province,

which is affiliated to ISIS, claimed responsibility for these attacks and others

recorded during the week.

Militant groups in Egypt have been particularly aggressive ever since the military ousted former

President Mohammed Morsi. In addition to using IEDs and drive-by-shootings, militants have also

resorted to kidnapping. Among those kidnapped is a police officer who militants say they have

executed this week.

Military Response: The Egyptian military and insurgent groups continue to fight each other

aggressively, often resulting in civilian casualties. Seeking to get the upper hand, the military has

been focusing its attention and resources on North Sinai, where it continued to discover this week

Egypt’s MEA Risk

stability index for the

week ending

February 7, 2016

2.15



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substantial arms caches and weapons such RPG missiles, machine guns ammunition, and anti-

aircraft guns. But as the militant response is equally aggressive, collateral damage has been on the

rise. This week, at least 10 people in the Abu Diab district of Rafah, including four children were

killed by a rocket attack coming from an unidentified source. Scores were wounded. Militants have

been targeting some of the civilians in the region because of their alleged tribal collaboration with

the military. However, some locals point the finger to the military as the source of this latest

attack. Among those accusing the military is the Al-Shehab Center for Human Rights, who alleges

that the military continues to strike civilian neighborhoods with total impunity.

Given how aggressive both belligerents are, the war to win the locals’ hearts and minds in North

Sinai is not being won by anyone. Government forces are accused of atrocities and neglect, while

the region’s main militant group “Sinai Province” has been having difficulty getting support from

the locals, and has been threatening to retaliate if recruitment does not pick up.

Dealing with an aggressive and present Sinai Province, the Egyptian military has been installing

monitoring cameras in North Sinai streets. It is in this northeastern province that the army killed

10 alleged militants during the week while taking control of some underground tunnels.

Military activity did not spare Central Sinai either, where an alleged terrorist was killed, while a

weapons and foodstuff warehouse was seized.

Continuing on their anti-security campaign outside of the Sinai area and into urban and sub-urban

zones, unidentified assailants, believed to be affiliates of Islamic State burned a police car in the

coastal city of Alexandria.

In Giza, a fire broke out in a garage where government-owned buses were parked. Five buses were

burned in what is suspected to be an arson from a politically-motivated militant group.

In Giza also, a civilian security guard was gunned down in a drive-by shooting on a traffic

checkpoint on the Ring Road. His attackers may have mistakenly targeted him as a policeman. One

other security guard was wounded. Although the attack has not been claimed as of yet, it was

likely the work of Ajnad Misr, a militant group operating in and around Cairo, although we do not

rule out the Sinai Province as another potential militant group behind the attack.

In the same region, the police and militants exchanged gunfire in Hadayek Al-Maadi district during

the week, as nine suspects were referred to criminal court over a previous killing of a policeman

and a civilian.

The Egyptian justice system has been active this week, with the sentencing of 8 individuals to 10

years hard labor over their targeting of ships at the Suez Canal. Arrests of Muslim Brotherhood

militants continued during the week, with 7 arrested in Sharqiya, while a football match between

Egypt and Libya in Aswan halted after tear gas filled the stadium.


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The capital Cairo has been quiet this week, although on the political and policy fronts we note that

the country has been seeking a leadership role to create a joint military force in North Africa,

essentially to establish a common defense strategy against the Islamic State in Libya. All while

Egypt confirmed it will receive two Mistral warships in the upcoming summer.

On the criminality front, the Egyptian security arrested 56 suspects accused of committing criminal

acts in the Sinai province. Cairo has seen the brunt of criminal acts, with the worse being the killing

of an Italian student. Many suspect the Egyptian security forces to be behind the death of the

Italian student. Police brutality has been front and center in Egypt, as attacks against doctors have

been on the rise, prompting two hospitals to close their doors in protest, including the Al-Matariya

Hospital.

After denying that they were selling parts of pyramids to increase revenues, the Egyptian

authorities arrested several Individuals who were actually engaged in selling such parts.

Social, Human and Environmental Developments

Social tension continuous to rise as a result of a combination of security problems and

deteriorating economic conditions. Government mismanagement and policy blunders continue

to negatively weigh in on the social, human and environmental fronts. Many regions are facing

concerning problems, including a mounting swine flu death toll in Sharqia, which has reached 22

since October 2015. The first death from swine flu in 2016 was reported in Aswan. The

deterioration and neglect of the road infrastructure continue to cause deaths. In Beni Suef 16

people died in a 30-vehicle pileup, while seven others were killed in Al-Ayyat train-car crash. In

Sohag, there was a partial collapse of a new bridge, while on the environmental front, diesel spill

was spotted in the Nile River, yet another in a series of such environmental degradation.

While Egypt needs to spend heavily on basic infrastructure upgrades, the current government has

been acceleration of the construction of prisons instead. A recent presidential decree designated

a 100 acre plot for the construction of a massive prison in the Giza desert. More than a dozen

similar prisons are in the offing bringing Egypt’s prison system to over 52 sites.

In the category of government abuse of human rights and personal freedoms, several incidents

were recorded, starting with the arrest of a Turkish national for taking photos around Giza

pyramids, the arrest and deporting of an Egyptian-German researcher, the arrest in Menofia of six

preachers for not adhering to Friday praying sermon government rules, the arrest of a prominent



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cartoonist Islam Guawish for publishing drawings critical to the government. And obviously the

disappearance of an Italian student who was later found dead.

Egyptian courts have also been pushing for harsh punishments against people they found guilty

of various degrees of offenses. The most severe call was a Kafr el-Sheikh court decision to

sentence seven to death over a stadium bombing. A court in Cairo sentenced TV host El-Beheiry

to serve 1-year in prison for contempt of religion. While many of these terms may be challenged

in the future and possibility overturned, they still highlight the intensity of the multi-faceted

crises Egypt has found itself since the ousting of Hosni Mubarak.

Economic Environment

On the economic front, Egypt continues to struggle with a hardening environment. Egypt

canceling of a wheat tender this week highlighted two areas of major concern. The first is about

Egypt’s potential inability to pay for imports. Many wheat traders see this incident as directly

correlated to Egypt’s cash woes. The incident also highlights the divisions in the government over

sector oversight and governance. The wheat saga started when two government entities issues

their own fungus standards, with one of them essentially blocking the French wheat off the coast

of Egypt. As a result, Egypt is expected to pay more for imported wheat than what other importers

are paying, if cash is available. This issues is now having a ripple effect on European wheat

producers, who are seeing wheat stocks pile up amid as a result. Prices for European wheat are

likely to decrease over the coming months, but that decrease will not benefit Egypt given the risk

it is associated to.

Egypt’s cash crisis is forcing the government to look for alternative sources of revenue, including

the increase this week of import duties on luxury goods to 40%. New customs tariff and additional

taxes are being imposed on the auto industry, and general prices are expected to rise following

new custom tariffs. These decisions to increase taxes, fees and prices come amid disclosure that

the Canal Suez 2015 revenues dropped by more than 5%, a trend likely to continue in 2016 despite

the opening of the New Canal Suez.

Another source of potential cash remains Saudi Arabia, but Saudi’s own problems may limit the

capacity of the oil giant to come to Egypt’s rescue.


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Political Developments

On the political scene, we note that Al-Dostor Party accused government of being behind “forced

disappearing” of its members. Meanwhile, in Qalyubia, four were arrested during clashes between

police, Muslim Brotherhood protesters. Internationally, we note that the Egyptian government

denied a Saudi mediation with Turkey. Turkey and Egypt have seen their diplomatic relations

deteriorate ever since the military launched a coup against former Muslim Brotherhood leader

Mohamed Morsi. Turkey has been a staunched ally of the MB movement around the world and

has invested heavily in the Mohamed Morsi presidency.

Recommendations & Conclusions

The regions of the North Sinai must be off limits to travelers. The ongoing fight between the

Egyptian military and militant groups has reached such a high peak that collateral damage among

civilians has been on the rise.

MEA Risk believes that no one, excluding legitimate residents should be venturing into North Sinai,

and indeed into many other regions of the Sinai zone. Outside of Sinai, instability continues to

affect large urban settings, such as Cairo and its suburban areas, and Alexandria along the

Mediterranean coast. Urban centers along the Nile river tend to also be centers of instability and

risk, not only on the terror front, but also as a result of over-aggressive police and military, as well

as due to a deterioration of environmental and health situation.

In fact, MEA Risk notes not only a sharp increase in various flu strains, but we also the appearance

of the Zika disease.

While Egypt is battling to remain afloat on several fronts, its economy remains highly vulnerable

to a severe shortage of cash, a massive increase in debts, and a broad deterioration of living

conditions, making traveling to Egypt a high-risk decision.

For those who must travel to Egypt, MEA Risk recommends minimum movement and limit activity

to government-endorsed business activity. With government endorsement comes additional

security and a lesser risk.



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Disclaimer and Copyrights Notice

Entire contents, Copyright © 2016 MEA Risk LLC and its partners when stated.

Reproduction of this report in a form without prior written permission is forbidden. The

information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable.

MEA Risk LLC disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of

such information.

MEA Risk LLC shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the

information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole

responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The

opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

About MEA Risk MEA Risk LLC is a company that performs tracking/alerting, risk rating and analysis specific

to the African continent, with the goal to expand worldwide. Tracking and alerting are

related to events and incidents that constitute critical risk factors to countries,

organizations and individuals.

Events and incidents are captured by teams on the ground, and summarized, analyzed

and immediately disseminated to clients around the world. We also enable crowd-

sourcing, leveraging new technologies and the widespread use of smartphones.


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In broad terms, MEA Risk consists of the following four major services:

Critical Incidents Tracker or CIncidents is a repository of events that negatively

affect a nation’s stability. Incidents are stored and processed through a set tools

that combines a cloud-based database, a live feed into a geo-mapping user

interface, a set of analytics, a series of alerts and a set of analyst reports. The

whole package forms a brand new way of looking at geopolitical crises, above

and beyond politics and country ratings as we have known them.

Shield & Alerts Mobile Platform: Shield & Alert (S&A) takes the data and the due

diligence performed on the desktop platform and deploys it into the mobile

world for IMMEDIATE access to critical information. In addition, it leverages

crowd sourcing to enhance tracking. It is truly your eyes and ears on the ground

so you are informed of risk around you. As additional and optional features S&A

provides you with the ability to register your travel itinerary, and if in distress you

can send a distress signal to your Manager, colleagues, security team, and even

family and friends, if you wish so. Such alert system allows the recipient of the

distress to identify you exact GPS location, if and when enabled.

Reports & Analysis: MEA Risk offers three core report types: Weekly Threat

Assessment, Monthly Security Report, and Special Reports. Samples and

subscription rates are available upon request.

Custom Services: MEA Risk makes its top-notch analysts available. Custom

services include consulting, analysis, live presentations, training and education,

etc.



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Contact Information

MEA Risk can be reached via these mailing addresses:

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Our Fax: US+305-468-6347

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