egypt anpro-model egypt anpro-model manual item – 4 how to make alternative scenarios this manual...

Egypt AnPro-ModelEgypt AnPro-Model

Manual

Item – 4 How to make Alternative Scenarios

This Manual Item shows the steps to be taken in order to produce Alternative Scenarios. It requires using Manual Item -5: Worksheets for making Scenarios

2

Egypt AnPro - ModelEgypt AnPro - Model

Manual Item – 3: How to make Alternative Scenarios

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Step 1: assign

• Scenario N°: ……………

• Scenario Name: …………….

Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 4

3

Egypt AnPro - Model


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Step 2 The objectives for this scenario concern:

Access: …………………………………

……………………………………….

Quality: ………………………………....

……………………………………….

List the objectives in Worksheet (Part 1)


4

Egypt AnPro - Model


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Step 3

Identify those variables in the …………… sub-sector model which are directly related to achieving these objectives:

3.1 Identify the relevant tables in the sub-sector model 3.2 Write down the table number in the worksheet 3.3 Indicate whether it is an independent variable or a dependent variable

Fill in Worksheet (Part 2)


5

Egypt AnPro - Model


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Step 4

List in Worksheet (Part 3) the targets which you want to set in this Scenario


6

Step 5 - In Worksheet (Part 4), in the first row, fill in the names of the independent variables you noted in the previous Part 3

For each independent variable:5.1 find in the model the values for the base scenario5.2 enter them in the Worksheet table in the columns “base

scenario”5.3 In the columns “New scenario”, enter the new targets (i.e. the

targets of the New scenario)

Note: the targets which you enter are the result of a target setting dialogue which has taken place among stakeholders.

Egypt AnPro - Model


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


7

Step 6 6.1 Identify the tables in which you expect to find the projection results: 6.2 Write down the table number in the Worksheet (Part 5) 6.3 Identify the variables for which you expect to find the scenario results 6.4 Write down the variable names in Worksheet (Part 5)

Continued on next page

Egypt AnPro - Model


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


8

Step 6, Continued from previous page

6.5 In Worksheet (Part 6), in the first row, fill in the names of the result variables you noted in Part 5

For each result variable: 6.6 find in the model the values for the base scenario 6.7 enter them in Worksheet (Part 6) in the columns labeled “base scenario” 6.8 In Worksheet (Part 6) enter the projection results produced by the New Scenario in the columns “New scenario”

Egypt AnPro - Model


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


9

Step 7The Worksheet (Part 6) contains the projection results produced by the New scenario as well as the projections of the Base scenario.

assess the feasibility of the New scenario

7.1 Compare the two projections in order to make sure that the objectives of the New scenario are achievable in a realistic, affordable way:7.1 Check whether the budget required for the new scenario appears feasible7.2 Check whether the size (amount) of essential inputs such as teachers, classrooms and other inputs appear to be within reasonable, affordable limits Continued on next page

Egypt AnPro - Model


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


10

Step 7, Continued from previous page

7.3 Discuss the projection results with stakeholders

7.4 In case of non-agreement on the New scenario, make another scenario which is more achievable and more acceptable to the stakeholders

7.5 Continue this dialogue (iterative) process

and use the Model and the Worksheet

until agreement is reached.

The agreed on scenario will be retained

Egypt AnPro - Model


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


egypt anpro-model egypt anpro-model manual item – 4 how to make alternative scenarios this manual...

Documents