efmn cd 2007 - steinmuller

8/8/2019 EFMN CD 2007 - Steinmuller

1/21

1

Corporate foresight - experiences,insights and its relation to policy foresight

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmller

Correspondents day 2007

Sept. 24, 2007

Dr. Karlheinz SteinmllerZ_punkt TheForesight Company

Overview

Z_punkt

Corporate Foresight Examples and

Challenges

CF and Policy

Foresight


2/21

2


Z_punkt In a Nutshell

Some Facts

founded in 1997

located in Berlin, Essen andKarlsruhe

staff of about 20 employees

main clients: large companies

also research activities forministries, EU-funded etc.

networking, e. g.German Node of The UNU

Millennium Project

Core Competences

Foresight services for strategyand innovation:from trend monitoring to scenarioprocesses

Content provider for strategicknowledge:Business environment,consumers, industries,

technologies

External think tank for industrypartners:creative processes,implementation of corporateforesight


Clients


3/21

3


Cooperations

Councilfor Scientificand IndustrialResearch (CSIR) of South Africa

PontifciaUniversidadeCatlica De So Paulo

Research Center for Eco-EnvironmentalSciencesChinese Academyof Sciences


North America> USA

Finland Futures AcademyFinland Futures Research Center,

Dr. Juha Kaskinen, Director (University)

Nucleo de Estudos de Futuro (NEF)The Pontifcia Universidade Catlica de So Paulo(PUC SP) University and NGO

Prof. Arnoldo Jos de Hoyos

Center for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)Think Tank, private sector (Global Research Alliance), Pretoria

Dr. Reinie Biesenbach, Centre Manager

The Arlington Institute

Non-profit research institute about global change

John L. Petersen, President

Europe> Finland

Asia> China

Latin-America> Brazil

Africa> South Africa

Chinese Academy of Sciences

Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences

Prof. Ph.D Rusong Wang

Germany

> Coordinator

Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company

GFG Founder and Coordinator

http://www.z-punkt.de

International Foresight Group - IFG


4/21

4


Publications


TrendsZ_trenddatabase(Release 2006)

about 240 trendscontinuously monitored

new: integration intoscenario processes,weak signals and wildcard module

ScenariosScenLab

(Scenario Software)

includes unique geneticalgorithms for high

complexities automated clustering

collaboration tools included

Innovation

Deep Innovation

new approach forcustomer-centered

innovation Combines future research

with customer analysis collaboration with Olson

Zaltman Assoc., Boston

Some New Foresight Tools


5/21

5


Overview

Z_punkt

Corporate Foresight

Examples and

Challenges

CF and Policy

Foresight


Corporate Foresight - A Definition

CF is future studieswithin businesses

a systematic, continuous approach

based on a broad variety of methods

centres around medium to long-termoriented work on strategies, visions, andinnovations

a participatory process(involving internal knowledge andcompetence)

integrated in strategy, innovation orchange management processes

+ Intermediary sphere: Pre-competitive studies


6/21

6


But: a number of common problems of its use and

integration

Still largely white spot in terms of research on CF

More knowledge on the state of the art of CF is needed

CF - On the Rise in Europe

Main trends:

CF becomes more important and widespread

Diverse set of methods being used and developed further

Diverse modes of organizing corporate foresight

Tendency to look beyond close environments (economy / technology)

Foresight methods becoming crucial for innovation processes


Observing the RelevantTrends

Monitoring

Understanding theDrivers of Change

Analysis

Anticipating the Future

Projection

Deriving BusinessImplications

Transformation

Consumer Trends

Weak Signals

Z_trenddatabase

Environmental+ Technology Trends

Future CustomerNeeds

Wild Cards

Emerging Issues

Key Factors

Roadmaps

Context Innovation

Future + InnovationWorkshops

Scenarios

Product

Innovation

New BusinessDevelopment

Strategy

Corporate Foresight Toolbox

Basic Process

Toolbox

Scenario

Process


7/21

7


1. Reduce uncertainty by identifying newand relevant trends

2. Prepare strategic decisions

3. Support innovation processes

4. Develop new and future businessfields / markets

5. Create orientation on future

developments6. Build a knowledge base

Businesses work with foresight in order to

Innovation

Knowledge BaseStrategy

CF

aimstriangle

Growing awareness for the complexity of interactionsbetween companies and their environments and for the needto overcome a technology-centred perspective

CF Aims


Fields of Observation (in order of priority):

70 % of businessesdeal

withall 5 subject areas

Insiders perspective dominates

Focussing often on immediate environment (closer competitiveenvironment, as in marketing and management practice),often: technology-centred view

But recently: shift towards customer orientation, more openperspective + approach

1. Technology and Innovation2. Business & Companies3. Individuals and Society4. Environment & Nature

5. Politics and Law

Issues Shift Towards a Wider Perspective


8/21

8


CF - Methods

Regularly Used Methods:

Publication Analysis(Environ. Scanning): 79%

Brainstormings: 58%

Scenario Methods: 46%

Simulations: 29%

Trend Extrapolation: 29%

Expert Surveys / Interviews: 33%

Delphi (only occasionally): 42%

Future Workshops: 8%

Z_punkt 2002 survey onFutures studies and businessesinGermany

Jan Oliver Schwarz: A German Delphi

on Corporate Foresight, 2006EFMN Brief 78


Patrick Becker: Corporate Foresight in Europe 2002, EFMN Brief 82with additions by Z_punkt

The CollectingPost

-on the side- individuals

- collecting existinginformation

- low visibility

The Think Tank

- many addressees +tasks, extensive internal

+ external network- wider perspective

TheObservatory- specialized task,e.g. forecasting

future traffic- single addressee- well networked

internally

Level of Connectedness + Scope of Tasks

Size

separate units, full-time staffgenerating proprietary output

DB, IBM

Lufthansa,P&G, Volvo

Ericsson, BT,Daimler, Philips,Siemens

CF 3 Types of Organizational Forms


9/21

9


Corporate Foresight Framework

From Future Research to Strategic Action

Futurists (ExternalOr Internal)>> Research>> Methods

MonitoringTrends

AnalysisKey Factors / Drivers

ProjectionScenarios / Contexts

CF

Level1

CF

Level2 Internal

Foresight Team>> Implementation>> Process

TransformationStrategy Innovation

Internal Foresight

Community>> Enrichment>> Expertise

ApplicationFuturizing the whole company

CF

Leve

l3

CF is more than future research. It is a complex,multi-layered communication process


Overview

Z_punkt


Challenges

CF and Policy

Foresight


10/21

10


Authorised by BASF

CF Trend Based Innovations:

From Megatrends to New Products at BASF


CF Strategy OrientationStrategic Visioning at Siemens AG

3 time horizons

roadmapping and scenarios

Impacts on business andsegments

STEEP approach+ Customers+ Competitors

Also special studiese. g. study by Z_punkt & SiemensReal-Time Communication at the CustomerInterface (in German):trend analysis + scenarios for sectors

Source: "Pictures of the Future - Strategic Visioning at Siemens


11/21

11


CF Innovation Orientation

Social Innovation at Deutsche Telekom AG

Customer centeredapproach

Trends and Scenarios areused to explore changingcustomer demands andmarket needs

Insights are used to design

new ICT applications and totrigger R&D projects


Society

Technoloy

Economy

Ecology

Politics

Z_punktFuture Services: Trends

Strategic Trend Analysis

From general environmentalscanning to specific tasks

Z_trend database

HTML-based knowledge tool

STEEP systematics

about 240 trends continuouslymonitored

new: integration into scenarioprocesses

Weak Signals, Wild Card andindustries modules optional


12/21

12


Z_punkt

Future Services: Scenarios

Scenario Projects

Customized processes

Integrating the clientscompetence

From quick & dirty 1 workshop

processes to sophisticatedlarge ones

Scenario Software ScenLab

Includes unique geneticalgorithms for highcomplexities

Automated clustering

Collaboration tools included


Playground Pitfall

Monologue Pitfall

Lone Rider Pitfall

Tendency to re-invent the wheel in terms of processes,methods, application, communication

No Building of Knowledge Pool: a lack of continuityof activities, lack of commitment to CF

Results remain more or less unknown internally: low

level of diffusion of results into the corporation

Acceptance + implementation problems foroutcomes, lack of integration of colleagues / employeesinto the process

Typical Problems & Pitfalls


13/21

13


Observations

CF is becoming more widespreadand important

Struggling with difficulties, whichmethodological improvement alonecannot answer

Cultural clash betweenextrapolation / forecasting peopleand qualitatively / widerenvironment oriented people

Acceptance of qualitative future

knowledge problematic in uppermanagement need fornumbers

Methodological bridge to

established business processesseems to be missing

Coping with paradoxes:

Lack of standardsvs. need for individualsolutions

Low level of diffusion / extentof practical use in businessesin generalvs. sophisticated state of theart lead user development

Gap between report cultureand need for action

Gap between scientific /foresight communitydiscussions and practical use


CooperationContinuity

Creativity Communication

5C

Competence

CF Success Factors


14/21

14


3 Main Competences:Content, Methods, Processes.

Build a flexible toolbox.

Keep it simple! Andtransparent.



5C

Competence

CF Success Factors:

Competence


First of all, make sure you have the

commitment of the managementboard.

Involve the potential target groupat an early stage to increaseacceptance

Establish Learning Loops and aninternal Foresight Community (NewApproach: Community of Practice)



5C

Competence

CF Success Factors:Cooperation


15/21

15


Effective communication is asimportant as the quality of content.

Use adequate communicationformats to reduce complexitydue to needs of different target

groups



5C

Competence

CF Success Factors:

Communication


Deliver surprises, not onlybusiness as usual scenarios.

Hold the balance between straightanalysis and visionary thinking.

An experimental approach isnecessary, because there are onlyfew standards. But: No risk, no fun!



5C

Competence

CF Success Factors:Creativity


16/21

16


Organise CF highly flexible, so youcan react quickly to new demands

Try to make CF an essential part ofstrategic management.



5C

Competence

CF Success Factors:

Continuity


Overview

Z_punkt


Challenges

CF and Policy

Foresight


17/21

17


Corporate Foresight

A real competitive advantage!

Quick, dirty and highly relevant!

We need everythingabout the global businessenvironment in 2017Q3 -

- next week!

But dont forget - - weare car makers!

As a manager - - I cantake only the best

scenario!

But honestly, MrSteinmuller, your guts -- which one will come

true?


Public Foresight

According to highest scientific standardsWe should finalize it before theend of the legislative period - -

or better: at the beginning of thenext??? Perhaps with a

prolongation option in FP9?

This really fits well withone of my students

diploma ...

Without including a forest-ethical study, it will never

get an approval.And there should be

institutes from N, S, W,and East Europeanmember states ...


18/21

18


Corporate vs. Public Foresight

Issues of CF:

Future business environment(markets with time horizon x, inregion y, in industry z)

Innovative products and servicesfor tomorrows customers

Strategic options in competition

Future risks and opportunities ingeneral

And where the hell are society and

regulation moving to?

Focus maily on explorativequestions

Issues of Public Foresight:

Global, national and regionalchallenges and how to addressthem

Development of social systems

What are our common visions andgoals?

How to motivate, mobilize,integrate all groups?

Focus maily on normativequestions (?)


Corporate Foresight

Measures of Success

Approval by board

Implementation of results

Follow-up project

No short term return on investment!

Part of company culture

Sometimes shifting targets Sometimes multitude of interests Sometimes hidden agendas

Conditions for success

Completely in line with interests of thecompany

Adapted to organizational culture(e. g. business language)

Strong advocates (owners) within

companyRules

Confidentiality

Short project times

Usually tight budgets

Quantification urge

(Over-) Optimism

Legitimation by prestige

Main results for board on 3 ppt slides

CF has to compete with daily business


19/21

19


Public Foresight

Measures of Success

Acceptance of results byscientific / foresight community

Implementation of results

Part of political processes

Sometimes shifting targets Sometimes multitude of interests Sometimes hidden agendas

Legitimation of decisions

Postponement of decisions

Expertise vs. counter-expertise

Conditions for success

Political support (owners ofprocess)

Compatibility to politicalagenda

Rules

Formal requirements of the tender

Political correctness

Inclusiveness (integration of all

stakeholders) Longer project times

Often: awkwardly large consortia

Legitimation by prestige


Where to cooperate?

CF needs PF!

PF is exploited by CF people(and some managers anyway)

PF provides insights into theexternal business environment

PF sometimes is used tolegitimate CF

PF provides fundamentalmethodological studies

Does PF need CF?

CF sometimes voices freshideas

CF has (some) businesscommunity insights

CF has (some) client drivenmethodological developments

Overlapping interests: future intelligence in all fields cutting-edge methodologies quality standards (?)


20/21

20


How to interlink networks?

PF networks

some national networks

EU networks

project-related networks

CF networks

mostly (closed) clientnetworks of CF consultancies

some failures to foundEuropean networks

D I F I

Le Cercle des Entrepreneurs du Futur

What beyond just more conferences?Knowledge sharing platform

Netzwerk Zukunftsforschung


Final Words

Forecasting isvery difficult,

especially about

the future.

Mark Twain

But connectingforesight peopleis difficult, either.


21/21


Thank you for your attention!

Contact:

www.z-punkt.de

www.steinmueller.eu

efmn cd 2007 - steinmuller

Documents