effects of the 3-hour tarmac delay rule
DESCRIPTION
Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule. Yi-Hsin Lin 15 December 2011 16.781 Final Project. The Tarmac-Delay Rule. Response to series of highly publicized delays Valentine’s Day 2007: 28 flights with tarmac delays over 3 hours - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Effects of the 3-Hour
Tarmac Delay Rule
Yi-Hsin Lin15 December 201116.781 Final Project
![Page 2: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The Tarmac-Delay Rule
• Response to series of highly publicized delayso Valentine’s Day 2007: 28 flights with tarmac delays over 3 hours
• Tarmac delays of over three hours result in a fine of up to $27,500 per passenger
• Requires airlines to provide food, water, working lavatories, and medical care if necessary to passengers for tarmac delays over two hours
• Exceptions for safety, security, and air traffic control restrictions, but each case is reviewed by DOT
• Rule went into effect on April 29, 2010
![Page 3: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
First Fine: American Eagle
• First fine was issued last month: to American Eagle for 15 flights delayed at ORD on arrival
• ORD departures cancelled due to weather• No gates available for arriving flights• 608 passengers affected• Fined $900,000• Fine was much less than $16.7 million max
![Page 4: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Tarm
ac d
elay
s ov
er 3
ho
urs
![Page 5: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Success! But it’s not that simple…
• DOT says tarmac rule has been highly successful
• Airlines and some analysts claim that the rule is worse for consumers
1. Increased cancellation rateso May 2009-April 2010: 102200 of 6417992 flights (1.6%)o May 2010-April 2011: 120401 of 6350073 flights (1.9%)
2. More unnecessary gate returns Longer delays
![Page 6: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
A Note on Datasets• Data comes from the BTS website (
www.transtats.bts.gov)
• Does not contain all US domestic flights, only major carriers
• Data from 2007 through September 2011
![Page 7: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Monthly Tarmac Delays and
Cancellation RatesTa
rmac
del
ays
over
3
hour
sC
ancellation Rate
(%)
5/09-4/10: 1.6%
5/10-4/11: 1.9%
5/08-4/09: 1.7%
![Page 8: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Taxi-out Delays by Origin (2007)
![Page 9: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Monthly Delays and Cancellation Rates
(JFK)Ta
rmac
del
ays
over
3
hour
sC
ancellation Rate
(%)
5/09-4/10: 2.6%
5/10-4/11: 3.2%
5/08-4/09: 2.8%
Without 27 December 2010 snowstorm: 2.9%
![Page 10: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Daily Tarmac Delays and Cancellation
Rates (JFK)Ta
rmac
del
ays
over
3
hour
sC
ancellation Rate
(%)
June 2009 June 2011
![Page 11: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Gate Return Statistics (JFK)
5/2008-4/2009
5/2009-4/2010
5/2010-4/2011
1/2011-9/2011
Dates(N = 5) 17 54 57 41
Gate Returns(N = 5) 96 387 405 403
GR Departure(N = 5)
85 (88.5%) 312 (80.6%)
344 (84.9%)
337 (83.6%)
Dates(N = 10) 0 10 6 12
Gate Returns(N = 10) 0 125 104 230
GR Departure(N = 10)
- 79 (63.2%) 78 (75.0%) 180 (78.3%)
Without 31 December 2009 snowstorm, 72.4%.
![Page 12: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Tarmac Times for Gate Returns (JFK)
All gate returns
Gate returns resulting in departures
Cou
nts
Cou
nts
![Page 13: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Conclusions• Drastic decrease in long tarmac delays• Increase in cancellation rate unclear• Few gate returns resulting in longer delays
• DOT has been reasonable in enforcing the rule• Rule doesn’t solve underlying congestion problem
Questions? Comments?
![Page 14: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Valentine’s Day 2007• Massive snowstorm affecting the northeast• At JFK, 287 out of 336 departures cancelled
(85.4%)• Of 49 remaining departures, 16 had taxi out times
more than 3 hourso JetBlue flight 623 to HOU sat on tarmac for 7+ hours
• 253 out of 335 arrivals cancelled (75.5%)• Of 82 remaining arrivals, 8 diverted and 12 had
taxi in times more than 3 hourso JetBlue 850 from RSW sat on tarmac for 9+ hours
• 1697 3+-hour tarmac delays in 2007o 358 3+-hour tarmac delays at JFK
![Page 15: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Case Study: 26 June 2009
vs. 9 June 2011
Friday, 26 June 2009, 20Z
Thursday, 9 June 2011, 20Z
![Page 16: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Traffic Management Initiatives
26 June 2009 9 June 2011• 1522: FCAA08, 20-2Z• 1528: GDP, 20-3Z• 2043: GS, till 22Z• 2122: GS, extend till
23Z• 2216: FCAA08, 20-3Z• 2348: GDP, till 5Z
• 1625: FCAA05, 18-3Z• 1628: FCAA08, 18-3Z• 1831: GDP, 21-2Z• 1857: GS, till 20Z• 2004: GDP, till 3Z• 2211: GS, till 23Z• 2248: GS, extend till
0Z
Times are in UTC = EST + 4.
![Page 17: Effects of the 3-Hour Tarmac Delay Rule](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816583550346895dd8270f/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Case Study: 26 June 2009
vs. 9 June 201126 June 2009 9 June 2011
Scheduled departures
381 274
Cancellations (%) 38 (10.0%) 30 (10.9%)Scheduled arrivals 382 271Cancellations (%) 40 (10.5%) 14 (5.2%)
Gate Returns 9 33GR Cancellation 1 9GR Departure 8 24