effects of future climate change on air quality in …
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EFFECTS OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE ON AIR QUALITY IN EAST ASIA
Rokjin J. Park
with Minjoong Kim, Jaein Jeong, Jung-Hun Woo, and
Chang-Keun Song
Yuxuan Wang, Lulu Shen, Shiling Wu, Loretta Mickley
5th International GEOS-Chem Meeting, Harvard University, May 2-5, 2011
CLIMATE CHANGE AND AIR POLLUTION USING GCM-CTM
NCAR CCSM v3
(GCM)
GEOS-Chem
(CTM)
for global ozone-PM
input
meteorology
IPCC
future emission
(SRES) Scenario
greenhouse
gases
ozone-PM precursors
boundary
conditions
boundary
conditions
CMAQ for regional
ozone-PM
input
meteorology
MM-5 or WRF RCM
Applied to 2000-2050 global change simulations
with IPCC SRES A1B scenario;
Compare 2050 climate (2049-2051, 3-y averages)
to 2000 (1998-2000)
CCSM3 & GEOS-Chem COUPLING FOR STUDYING EFFECTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AIR QUALITY
DEVELOPMENT OF MODELING EMISSIONS INVENTORY
FOR FUTURE GEOS-Chem SIMULATION
Emissions Processing
- Temporal allocation
- Chemical speciation
Base year inventory ( Year 2000 )Global + Regional
NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, SO2, BC, OC, CO2, CH4, N2O
Modeling emissions inventory for GEOS-Chem(Speciated, monthly, 1deg gridded up to year 2100)
Base year adjustment
REAS
EDGAR 3.2 FT 2000
Bond et al. INTEX 2006
TRACE-P2000
100yr ProjectionIPCC SRES-IMAGE
A2,A1FI,A1B,A1T B1,B2
Emissions Processing
- Source sector reclassification
2000-2050 CHANGES IN SUMMER MEAN 8-h AVG. DAILY MAXIMUM OZONE OVER NORTH AMERICA
[ppbv]
2000 2050 2050 − 2000 2050 − 2000
[Wu et al., 2008]▶ 2000 conditions and change in climate
▶ 2000 conditions and changes in climate + emission
[ppbv]
Decreases reflect the projected
emission reductions in the
United States
2000-2050 CHANGES IN SPRINGTIME MEAN OZONE OVER ASIA
▶ 2000 conditions and changes in climate + emission
2000 2050 2050 - 2000▶ 2000 conditions and change in climate
[ppbv]
CHANGES OF SPRINGTIME MEAN OZONE AND METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES
[%][m][K]
2000 2050 2050 - 2000▶ 2000 conditions and change in climate
Cloud Fraction changePBL depth changeSurface temperature change[ppbv]
2000 2050 2050 - 2000▶ 2000 conditions and change in climate
[ppbv]
Ox E-W flux change Surface U-wind change 300hpa U-wind change
[kg/s][m/s]
CHANGES OF SPRINGTIME MEAN OZONE AND METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES (CONT.)
Ozone change Cloud fraction change ISOP emission change
[Gg C][ppbv] [%]
+1.8 Tg C
+2.6 Tg C
This study
GCAP
2000-2050 CHANGES IN SUMMERTIME MEAN OZONE OVER ASIA: THIS STUDY VS. GCAP
CLOUD FRACTION CHANGE IN IPCC MODELS
6 models mean (red + yellow)
[Asian monsoon]
4 models mean (red)
[Asian monsoon + El Niño]IPCC models mean[blue + green + purple]
This work
+1.0%
[%]
Cloud Fraction vs. Precipitation
-1.7% -1.9% -0.2%
[%]
11
NEXT STEP FOR EMISSIONS : RCP AND BEYOND
Name Pathway Radiative forcing
RCP 8.5 (rising) High radiative forcing (and concentration) >8.5 W/m2 in 2100
RCP 6 (stabilization without overshot) Intermediate ~6 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100
RCP 4.5 (stabilization without overshot) Intermediate ~4.5 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100
RCP3-PD (peak and decline) Low radiative forcing (and concentration) peak at ~3W/m2 before 2100 and then decline
This WorkGAINS
SRESSource : http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb/
Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)
RCP vs. post-SRES (Global) This work vs. others (East Asia)
Future work
• Use an updated CCSM model v5 (CESM) and Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) scenarios
Thank you for your attention