I

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN HIGHLAND

AGRICULTURE AND LOCAL ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES:

A CASE STUDY OF TIMURE VDC, RASUWA

Submitted by

KAMAL THAPA

Exam Roll no: 459

TU Regd. no: 5-2-37-558-2003

Central Department of Environmental Science

Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Nepal

Submitted to

Central Department of Environmental Science

Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Nepal

For the partial fulfillment of the requirement for the

Master of Science (M.Sc.) Degree in Environmental Science of

Tribhuvan University

June, 2011

II

A Thesis Report on

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN HIGHLAND

AGRICULTURE AND LOCAL ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES:

A CASE STUDY OF TIMURE VDC, RASUWA

(For the partial fulfillment of Master of Environmental Science)

Researcher:

Kamal Thapa

Exam Roll no: 459 [Sixth Batch]

T U Regd no: 5-2-37-558-2003

M. Sc. Environmental Sciences [CDES]

Institute of Science and Technology

Tribhuvan University, Kritipur, Nepal

Supervisor:

Ajaya Dixit

Chairperson,

Nepal Water Conservation Foundation

Chundevi, Kathmandu, Nepal

III

LETTER OF RECOMMENDATION

This is to certify that Mr. Kamal Thapa has prepared this dissertation entitled "

Effects of Climate Change in Highland Agriculture and Local Adaptive

Strategies: A Case Study of Timure VDC, Rasuwa” under my supervision and

guidance. The thesis is intended for the partial fulfillment of the requirements for

Master's Degree of Science in Environmental science majoring in Mountain

Environment.

To the best of my knowledge, the study is original and reveals useful insights on how

people adapt to climate change impacts. This thesis embodies his work and fulfills the

requirement for the stated degree awarded by Central Department of Environmental

Science, Tribhuvan University. I recommend this dissertation for final evaluation and

acceptance.

………………………………..

Ajaya Dixit

Chairperson,

Nepal Water Conservation Foundation

Chundevi, Kathmandu

(Thesis Supervisor)

IV

LETTER OF APPROVAL

The dissertation presented by Mr. Kamal Thapa entitled "Effects of Climate Change

in Highland Agriculture and Local Adaptive Strategies: A Case Study of Timure

VDC, Rasuwa” has been accepted as a partial fulfillment of requirement for the

completion of Master’s Degree in Environmental Science of Tribhuvan University.

Dissertation Evaluation Committee:

…………………………………….

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kedar Rijal

Central Department of Environmental

Science, Tribhuvan University

Head of Department

…………………………………….

Dr. Deepak Rijal

National Facilitator,

Climate Adaptation Design and Piloting

Project- Nepal

External Examiner

…………………………………….

Mr. Ajaya Dixit

Chairperson,

Nepal Water Conservation Foundation

Thesis Supervisor

…………………………………….

Mr. Gyan Kumar Chhipi Shrestha

Lecturer,

Central Department of Environmental

Science, Tribhuvan University

Internal Supervisor

V

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to thank my supervisor Mr. Ajaya Dixit for his support in the preparation

of this thesis. His suggestion has helped me complete this assignment successfully. I

am also thankful to Head of the Department of Environmental Science, Assoc. Prof.

Dr. Kedar Rijal, all teachers and staffs of the department for their support and

guidance. I am extremely thankful to my external examiner, Dr. Deepak Rijal and

internal supervisor Mr. Gyan Kumar Chhipi Shrestha for their comments and

encouragement for completion of final thesis report.

My sincere thanks go to Mr. Nabaraj Subedi of Department of Survey and Mr.

Navaraj Kandel of National Land Use Project. I extend my gratitude to Ms. Sujan

Ghimire and Mr. Kanchan Dixit of ISET-Nepal for their support. I’m thankful to Dr.

Santosh Shrestha, Mr. Madhav Devakota and Deebraj Rai for their valuable

comments. I express my gratitude and appreciation to the household respondents of

the Timure VDC.

Last but not the least I would like to thank my friends Ms. Sristi Silwal, Ms. Pooja

Baral, Ms. Swechchha Shrestha, Mr. Santosh Silwal and Yubaraj Satyal for their

assistance in successfully completing this work. I am very grateful to my family for

their support and inspiration.

Kamal Thapa

June, 2011

VI

ABSTRACT

Climate Change is one of the greatest challenges of our time. It affects agriculture,

forestry, human health, biodiversity, snow cover, aquatic and mountain ecosystems.

Changes in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation have the potentiality to

influence crop production. Despite impacts of climate change on the agriculture

sector, little efforts have been made to offset the impacts. In addition problems such

as drought, severe floods and landslides have been experienced in different sectors in

Nepal. This study assesses effects of climatic variability on agriculture at Timure

VDC of Rasuwa District. It explores adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability

associated with climate change in local agricultural production. For analysis

household questionnaires were administered in the VDC. The hydro meteorological

data on temperature, rainfall of Rasuwa district and discharge of Trisuli River at

Betrabati Station was analyzed to see any spatial and temporal variations in Timure

VDC. The impacts of these variations on agriculture were analyzed. The analysis of

past temperature records revealed a clear warming trend. The maximum average

temperature shows rapid increase (0.104°C/year) than the minimum average

temperatures (0.06°C/year) indicating a widening temperature range. The analysis of

precipitation data however did not show a clear trend of change but the amount of

annual rainfall showed increasing trend.

GIS analysis of land use change showed a decreased (in average 13.95% per decade)

agricultural land which may be one of reasons for declining agriculture production in

the study area. People have adapted different strategies to minimize impacts of

climatic hazards. These responses include selection of sites for making homes and

cultivation in sunny slope, intercropping, bio- engineering, terracing, changing crop

calendar, migration and diversifying income. However, traditional social safety net of

risk avoidance activities has weakened. Policy driven or planned adaptation

strategies along with autonomous adaptation need to address the negative impact of

climate change.

Key words: climate change, agriculture, adaptation strategy, local community

VII

TABLE OF CONTENT

LETTER OF RECOMMENDATION .......................................................................... III

LETTER OF APPROVAL ............................................................................................ IV

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ............................................................................................... V

ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... VI

TABLE OF CONTENT ................................................................................................ VII

LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... X

LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................ XII

ACRONYMS .............................................................................................................. XIII

Chapter I

INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1

1.1 Background .................................................................................................................. 1

1.2 Statement of Problem .................................................................................................... 5

1.3 Research Question ........................................................................................................ 6

1.4 Objectives ..................................................................................................................... 6

1.5 Scope and Limitations of the Study ............................................................................... 6

Chapter II

LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................... 8

2.1 General ......................................................................................................................... 8

2.2 Global Climate Change ............................................................................................... 10

2.3 Climate change in Himalaya Region and Nepal........................................................... 12

2.4 Climate Change and Agriculture ................................................................................. 15

2.5 Climate Change and Adaptation .................................................................................. 17

A. Planned Adaptation: ..................................................................................................... 18

B. Autonomous Adaptation: ............................................................................................. 18

2.6 Climate Impact Assessment and Vulnerability ............................................................ 19

VIII

2.7 Agriculture Policies and Plans .................................................................................... 20

2.8 Development of Hypothesis ........................................................................................ 21

Chapter III

METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 22

3.1 Research Approach ..................................................................................................... 22

3.2 Criteria for Site Selection ............................................................................................ 22

3.3 Study Area .................................................................................................................. 23

3.4 Research Design ......................................................................................................... 29

3.5 Data Collection ........................................................................................................... 30

3.6 Data Analysis ............................................................................................................. 33

Chapter IV

OBSERVATION AND RESULTS ................................................................................... 34

4.1 Socio-Economic Status and People’s Perception ......................................................... 34

4.2 Climate ....................................................................................................................... 37

4.3 Water Resource .......................................................................................................... 41

4.4. People’s Perception.................................................................................................... 42

4.5 Change in Spatial Distribution of Climatic Parameters ................................................ 48

Chapter V

DISCUSSION .................................................................................................................. 51

5.1 Change in Temperature and Precipitation .................................................................... 51

5.2 Agriculture Land-use Change ..................................................................................... 51

5.3 Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Events........................................................... 52

5.4 Adaptation Strategy .................................................................................................... 53

Chapter VI

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ................................................................. 56

6.1 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 56

6.2 Recommendation ........................................................................................................ 57

IX

REFERENCE ................................................................................................................... 58

ANNEX

ANNEX I: Change in Temperature ................................................................................... 63

B. Langtang ...................................................................................................................... 63

ANNEX II: Change in Precipitation .................................................................................. 64

A. Dhunche ...................................................................................................................... 67

B. Langtang ...................................................................................................................... 67

C. Timure ......................................................................................................................... 69

ANNEX III: Change in Discharge .................................................................................... 71

ANNEX IV: Change in distribution of Temperature ......................................................... 71

ANNEX V: Change in Distribution of Precipitation .......................................................... 73

ANNEX VI: Land use Change .......................................................................................... 73

ANNEX VII: Change in Agricultural Land ....................................................................... 75

ANNEX VIII: Questionnaire for the Analysis of Climate Change ..................................... 77

X

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Schematic view of the components of the climate system .................................... 9

Figure 2: Changes in GHGs from ice core and modern data ................................................ 9

Figure 3: Observed surface air temperature ....................................................................... 11

Figure 4: Carbon Dioxide emission of Nepal .................................................................... 13

Figure 5: Timure Village .................................................................................................. 26

Figure 6: Map of Timure VDC ......................................................................................... 29

Figure 7: Research design ................................................................................................. 30

Figure 8: Focus group discussions .................................................................................... 31

Figure 9: Meteorological stations use for interpolation ...................................................... 32

Figure 10: Ethnicity of respondents .................................................................................. 34

Figure 11: Sex ratio .......................................................................................................... 34

Figure 12: Literacy rate..................................................................................................... 35

Figure 13: Occupation status of respondents ..................................................................... 35

Figure 14: Landholding status ........................................................................................... 36

Figure 15: Food sufficiency .............................................................................................. 37

Figure 16: Location of meteorological stations ................................................................. 38

Figure 17: Annual average precipitation in Timure VDC .................................................. 40

Figure 18: Seasonal discharge in percentage ..................................................................... 42

Figure 19: People's perception on temperature .................................................................. 42

Figure 20: People's perception on precipitation ................................................................. 43

Figure 21: People's perception on snowfall ....................................................................... 43

Figure 22: Perception on agricultural production .............................................................. 43

Figure 23: Perception on decreasing production ................................................................ 44

Figure 25: Drinking water supply ..................................................................................... 44

Figure 26: Irrigation water supply ..................................................................................... 45

Figure 24: Drinking water at Khaidi ................................................................................. 44

Figure 28: Issues of forest ................................................................................................. 46

Figure 27: Forest condition ............................................................................................... 45

Figure 29: Perception on disaster ...................................................................................... 46

Figure 30: Impact of climate induced disaster ................................................................... 47

Figure 31: Preventive measure .......................................................................................... 47

XI

Figure 32: Resilience from extreme condition ................................................................... 48

Figure 33: Change in temperature ..................................................................................... 48

Figure 34: Change in precipitation .................................................................................... 49

Figure 35: Satellite image of Timure VDC........................................................................ 50

Figure 36: Sloping agricultural land at Khaidi village ....................................................... 52

Figure 37: Landslide at Timure ......................................................................................... 53

Figure 38: Bhakari for grain storage ................................................................................. 54

Figure 39: Ghattekhola ..................................................................................................... 55

XII

LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Climate region in Nepal ...................................................................................... 24

Table 2: Land cover of Rasuwa district ............................................................................. 25

Table 3: Crop calendar in Timure VDC ............................................................................ 36

Table 4: Temperature distribution (°C) in Timure VDC .................................................... 38

Table 5: Temperature trend (°C/year) ............................................................................... 39

Table 6: Seasonal distribution of rainfall ........................................................................... 40

Table 7: Precipitation trend ............................................................................................... 40

Table 8: Discharge of Trisuli River at Betrabati station ..................................................... 41

XIII

ACRONYMS

ALSO Advanced Land Observing Satellite

CBS Central Bureau of Statistics

CDES Central Department of Environmental Science

CDIAC Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

CDMA Code Division Multiple Access

CSMT Country Study Management Team

DHM Department of Hydrology and Meteorology

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GHG Green House Gas

IDW Inverse Distance Weighted

IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IUCN World Conservation Union

LPG Liquid fid Petroleum Gas

LRMP Land Resource Mapping Project

MHP Micro Hydro Power

MOPE Ministry of Population and Environment

NARC National Agriculture Research Center

NCVST Nepal Climate Vulnerability Study Team

NPC Nepal Planning Commission

PREC/L Precipitation Re-Construction over Land

SAM South Asian Monsoon

SRES Special Report Emission Scenarios

UN United Nation

UNEP United Nation Environment Program

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

VDC Village Development Committee

V-SAT Very Small Aperture Terminal

WECS Water and Energy Commission Secretariat

1

Chapter I

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

Of all the environmental problems facing global society, climate change is probably

the most significant one (Basque Plan, 2009). It is not simply because of the impact

that scientific studies suggest that climate change will have, but because of the fact

that impact will be widespread and inextricably linked with ways of living and

producing. International community made many declarations highlighting the

challenges. One such declaration, the Basque Plan against climate change (2008-

2012) elucidates that in today’s world we are not dealing with isolated phenomena

involving an anomaly located at specific point in the system but with the result of a

long process of economic growth based on an unsustainable model (Climate action,

2009).

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines

"climate change" as: "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to

human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in

addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods".

Climate change is any long-term significant change in the ―average weather‖ that a

region experiences. Average weather may include temperature, precipitation and wind

patterns. Climate is generally defined as average weather conditions (over a period of

typically 30 years or more) and can be determined on a regional or global scale.

Climate has changed considerably through the history of the earth due to changes in

radiative forcing components of atmosphere as they are influenced by natural

phenomenon. Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that

many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly

increases in temperature (IPCC, 2007). But the rate of global climate change during

the 20th

century was greater than the preceding era (Bates et al, 2008). According to

IPCC (2007), the global average surface temperature has increased, especially since

the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-1700s when the amount of green

house gas (GHG) emitted into the atmosphere began to increase. According to this

2

study the updated 100-year trend from 1906 to 2005 shows increase in 0.74°C ±

0.18°C.

Many greenhouse gases occur naturally. Many human activities have resulted in the

emission of greenhouse gases, which are responsible, for anthropogenically enhanced

greenhouse effects. Greenhouse gases emitted by human activities include carbon

dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydro fluorocarbons (HFCs), per

fluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). Global concentration of GHG

due to human activities has increased in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times,

with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004 (IPCC, 2007). There are many other

ways in which humans affect the various components of the climate system.

Agriculture, deforestation, urbanization and other forms of land cover change alter the

proportion of incoming solar radiation reaching the ground surface reflected back to

space. This phenomenon affects the energy balance, the temperature and dynamics of

the climate system.

Observations from across the globe show that many ecosystems are being affected by

regional climate changes, especially as a result of changes in temperature and

precipitation extremes (UNITAR, 2010). The ecological patterns that have been

observed to change range from latitudinal plant distributions, the extension of areas

where infectious diseases are transmitted (such as malaria), and changes to

ecosystems due to increased regional fire hazards (e.g. in California). Most

ecosystems are predicted to slowly migrate and shift their distribution towards the

north and south poles in response to warming temperatures (IUCN, 2006).

From 1900 to 2005 precipitation (rain, sleet and snow) increased significantly in parts

of the Americas, northern Europe and northern and central Asia, but declined in the

Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of the southern Asia (UNDP,

2008). Intense precipitation events result in increased flood, landslide and mudslide

damages that will increase risks to human lives and properties. Globally there is an

increasing trend of climate related disasters. Between 2000 and 2004 an average of

326 climate disasters was reported each year (UNDP, 2008). Record of disaster event

between 1991 and 1999 shows that climate related disaster event were 104.

Of the many impacts of climate change, the impact on water is expected to be serious

as global availability of freshwater will be affected. Regionally, glaciers and snow

3

packs which are the crucial sources of fresh water for millions of people will be

affected. The extent and thickness of glaciers has recently undergone widespread

reduction from melting, and this trend is expected to accelerate during the 21st

Century. This trend will reduce water flow dynamics and the potential for hydropower

generation. Climate change is also expected to change the seasonality of river flows in

regions fed by melt water from mountain ranges, like the Hindu Kush, the Himalaya

and the inter-tropical Andes. More than a sixth of the world’s population resides in

these regions; two thousand million people depend on the water provided by seven of

the major rivers in Asia, all of them originating in the Himalaya (IPCC, 2007).

As water system is affected by climate change agriculture will be one of the sensitive

sector to induced impacts in Asia. The crop yield in many countries of Asia has

declined (IPCC, 2007). Agricultural productivity is likely to suffer severe losses

because of high temperature, severe drought, flood conditions, and soil degradation.

The Stern Review and IPCC 4th Assessment Report both state that climate change

will have adverse impact on people’s health, safety and livelihoods, with the ―poorest

people in the poorest countries expected to suffer first and foremost‖. Predicted

climate change will create barriers to poverty reduction efforts and reverse many of

the important socio-economic gains made by developing countries (IPCC, 2007).

The temperature increase in the Himalayan region has been greater than the global

average of 0.74 °C over the last 100 years (IPCC, 2007). More rapid warming in

higher altitude can be noted in temperature records from Nepal (Eriksson et al, 2008).

Observed changes in temperature trend, recent studies and local perceptions collected

during the NAPA process indicate a consistent and continuous warming in the period

at an annual rate of 0.06°C (MoEnv, 2010).

Nepal’s with a total land area is 147,181 square. Agriculture is a main source of

Nepal’s economy and more than 76 % of the population depends on this sector (NPC,

2010). About 6,000 rivers and streams that cross Nepal make it one of the richest

countries in terms of physics of the water resources. People who depend on

agriculture for their livings are more vulnerable as agriculture is easily affected by

climatic extreme events and natural disasters (NCVST, 2009). Due to such events

agricultural productivity is suffering from losses and attainment of food security is

under tremendous threats. Due to high dependency of livelihood in agriculture and

water, Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries from climate change impacts.

4

Third Assessment Report of the IPCC (2001) defines vulnerability as: ―The degree to

which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate

change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the

character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its

sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity‖ (IPCC 2001). Vulnerability has been

extensively been studied by analyst working on disaster risk reduction. Literature

suggest that resilience is inverse of vulnerability, those who are not resilient are

vulnerable and vice versa. Any efforts to reduce vulnerability which is also the

outcome of the social, economic and environmental exposure and sensitivity can build

capacity to adapt (Ahemad and Mustafa, 2007).

The IPCC has defined adaptation in connection with climate change impact as a

process through which societies make themselves better able to cope with an

uncertain future (IPCC, 2007). For community and individuals adaptation is the

process of social learning too. The capacity to adapt is the ability to understand

climate changes and hazards, to evaluate their consequences for vulnerable peoples,

place and economies and to minimize potential damages, to take advantage of

opportunities, or to cope with the consequences (Dow and Downing, 2006). Recently

more practical definition of adaptation has been offered. According to (Moench and

Dixit, 2004) adaptation is the ability to switch strategies when faced with stresses,

including those due to climate change.

The ability of local populations to adapt to floods, droughts and patterns of climatic

variability is heavily influenced by the larger, changing context in which livelihoods

are based. As markets, communication technologies and transport infrastructure

increase flows between many regions are undergoing a process of dramatic social and

environmental change. These social changes are occurring in a context in which

environmental degradation and global climatic change are fundamentally

transforming the water resource base on which most agricultural livelihoods depend

(Moench and Dixit, 2004). As a result developing countries such as Nepal face far

more severe adaptation challenges. For such countries, there is need for creating a

new understanding between government and development agencies along with local

community for innovation and for adaptation (NCVST, 2009).

Those challenges have to be met by governments operating under severe financing

constraints and by poor people themselves (UNDP, 2007). Adapting to climate

5

change entails taking the right measures to reduce the negative effects of climate

change (or exploit the positive ones) by making the appropriate adjustments and

changes. There are many options and opportunities to adapt (UNFCCC, 2006). These

options range from technological options, such as increased sea defenses or flood-

proof houses on stilts, to behavior change at the individual level, such as reducing

water use in times of drought and using insecticide-sprayed mosquito nets. Adaptation

measures also include such as changes in land-use practices, and economic

diversification that reduce the impacts that local people (Batterbury and Forsyth,

1999).

1.2 Statement of Problem

Given that Nepal is dependent on South Asian Monsoon (SAM) for social and

economic well being and that the complex interrelation between SAM and the

country’s landscape, it is clear that climate will result in serious consequences as the

precipitation patterns is likely to become more erratic. NCVST (2009) does recognize

that the consequences are likely to be serious. Study conducted by Ahmed and

Mustafa suggest that climate change may exacerbate social and economic

vulnerability of communities and how they may adapt. But much more needs to be

done to understand the scale and nature of impact. This Local level assessment is

relevant in the country like Nepal which has high diversity within short spatial

distance. Such study at local level can help plan and implement alternative livelihood

and adaptation strategies (Ahmed and Mustafa, 2007).

Changes in climatic-zones result in different cropping patterns and farming systems in

Nepal. Climatic parameters have the potential impact to alter the ecological

distribution of agricultural crops. If the expansion of climatic zones occurs rapidly

due to temperature rise, extinction of biodiversity might be severe (Malla, 2008).

Because of such consequences it is important to understand the effects at local level.

The study area lies in Nepal’s alpine region. Because the regions are more sensitive to

climate change in agricultural practices are more pronounced. For formulating plan to

adapt to climate change impacts, the knowledge of local community about climate

change and the strategies that take at individual and community level to respond to

different types of stresses should be known in the first place. This study is aimed at

understanding adaptation strategies that local inhabitants of the study village take to

offset impacts of climate change in agriculture sector.

6

1.3 Research Question

The questions raised in this study are as follows:

Have temperature and precipitation trends changed over time and space?

How have the record temperature and precipitation changed in the past?

Whether these changes match changes introduced by climate change

What are the observed impacts on mountain agriculture?

What strategies do the local people pursue to respond to these changes?

1.4 Objectives

The general objective of the study is to assess vulnerability of agriculture production

due to climate change. It also aimed to identify strategies pursued for adaptation.

Specifically the study aimed;

To assess the changes in climatic parameters using available

hydrological and meteorological data of Rasuwa District.

To analyze the socio-economic impacts of climate changes on

agriculture.

To explore strategies that local community can adapt to changing

agriculture production.

1.5 Scope and Limitations of the Study

To answer the above questions, this research focuses on the impacts of climate change

on the agriculture and on livelihood of Timure VDC of Rasuwa District. The study is

based on field survey, analysis of data on land use and hydro-meteorology. The field

also aimed to understand adaptation strategy pursued by villagers of Timure VDC.

The report includes analysis of climate change as well adaptation strategies. The

finding will help other researcher engaged in studies on climate change and

adaptation. The report has following limitations.

It is limited to a specific site.

Information obtained from local villagers and informed persons.

The analysis is based on three hydro-meteorological stations

The duration of data is 20 years.

7

1.6 Overview of Contents

This report presents the findings in eight chapters. Chapter I provide introduction and

significance of the study as well as the objectives. Chapter II presents a brief

introduction to study area while chapter III presents literature review and hypothesis

developed to test whether the formulated objectives have been achieved. Chapter IV

describes research methodology in order to get answer to the research questions to test

the hypotheses as well as the study’s limitation. Chapter V and VI present people’s

perception on impacts of climate change including temperature, precipitation and

changes in land use. Finally chapter VII presents conclusion and recommendations

and provides suggestions for future research.

8

Chapter II

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 General

The climate system is made up of a multitude of interlinking environmental

components, and therefore can be viewed as the status of the entire Earth system,

including the atmosphere, land, oceans, snow, ice and living things (as shown by

Figure 1). The conditions of these components of the climate system form the

background conditions for the occurrence of certain weather patterns.

Climate is generally defined as average weather conditions (over a period of typically

30 years or more) and can be determined on a regional or global scale (IPCC, 2007).

Therefore if the variability of the weather changes (as determined by statistics), this is

what we understand as ―climate change‖. Meteorological observations have shown

that measurements of some elements of weather, such as temperature and rainfall, in

certain regions of the world, have changed markedly during the 20th Century.

Whilst weather can be extremely chaotic, changing on a daily basis, climate is less

variable as it is a measure of average weather over a much longer period

(MDP/UNITAR, 2009). Therefore it must be noted that variability in the weather in

any one location/region is not evidence for or against any trend in the mean global

climate regime; such that a cold winter in a certain region is not evidence for or

against the fact that climate change is occurring in the long term on a global scale.

There will always be extremes of hot and cold weather, although their frequency and

intensity may change as the climate changes.

Scientific discovery of climate change began in the early 1800s when natural changes

in paleoclimate were first suspected and the natural greenhouse effect first quantified.

Shortly after thermometer was invented in the early 1600s, scientists began efforts to

quantify and record the parameters of weather. In the 1820s Jean Baptiste Joseph

Fourier discovered that "greenhouse gasses" trap heat radiated from the Earth's

surface after it has absorbed energy from the sun. In 1859 another scientist John

Tyndall suggested that ice ages were caused by a decrease in the amount of

atmospheric carbon dioxide. The idea of global warming languished until 1938, when

9

Guy S. Callender suggested that the warming trend revealed in the 19th century had

been caused

Figure 1: Schematic view of the components of the climate system

by a 10% increase in atmospheric carbon

dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels

(Harding, 2007). During the 1970s,

scientific opinion increasingly favored the

warming viewpoint. In 1988, the World

Meteorological Organization with the

support of United Nation Environment

Programme established the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) which continues its work

on climate change issues with series of

assessment reports and supplemental

reports that describe the state of scientific

understanding at the time each report is

prepared.

Figure 2: Changes in GHGs from ice core and

modern data

10

2.2 Global Climate Change

IPCC’s fourth assessment report (2007) suggests that global climate change increases

in the average temperature of Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, and landmasses. Scientists

believe that the Earth is currently facing a period of rapid warming brought about by

rising levels of heat-trapping gases, known as greenhouse gases, in the atmosphere.

Greenhouse gases retain the radiant energy (heat) provided to Earth by the Sun in a

process known as the greenhouse effect. Greenhouse gases occur naturally, and

without them the planet would become too cold to sustain life as we know it. Since

the beginning of the first Industrial Revolution in the mid-1700s, however, human

activities have added more and more of these gases in the atmosphere. For example,

levels of carbon dioxide, a powerful greenhouse gas, has increased by 35 percent

since 1750, largely from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas.

With more greenhouse gases (GHG) in the mix, the atmosphere acts like a thickening

blanket and traps more heat (IPCC, 2007).

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important anthropogenic GHG. Its annual emissions

have grown between 1970 and 2004 by about 80%, from 21 to 38 Giga tones (Gt). It

represented 77% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004. The rate of growth

of CO2-eq emissions was higher during 10-year period of 1995-2004 (IPCC, 2007).

For the next two decades (2020 to 2030) a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is

projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all

GHGs and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of

about 0.1°C per decade would be expected.

11

2.2.1 Change in Global Temperature

Scientists suggest that global warming will continue at a rate that is unprecedented in

hundreds of thousands of years of Earth’s history. They suggest that 21st century

because higher the level of greenhouse gases are emitted, will experience more

warming. In the last from 1995 to 2005, 1998 and 2005 were the warmest two years in

the global surface air temperature record since 1850. Surface temperatures in 1998

were enhanced by the major 1997–1998 El Niño event but no such strong anomaly

was present in 2005.

Eleven of the last 12 years (1995 to 2006) with the exception of 1996 were ranked

among the 12 warmest years on record since 1850. Assuming higher emissions of

GHG to continue significantly during the century scientists suggest further warming

of 2.4 to 6.4°C (4.3 to 11.5°F) by 2100 is possible. Even if a lower scenario of lower

emissions in which emissions grow slowly, peaking around the year 2050 is assumed,

and modeling exercise suggests that warming of 1.1 to 2.9°C(1.9 to 5.2° F) by the

year 2100 (IPCC, 2007) is likely.

It is also reported that warming of the Polar Regions has been amplified by the

melting of ice, which in turn exposes Dark Ocean and dark land. Instead of reflecting

radiation as the ice does, the exposed dark land absorbs almost 80% of the incoming

solar radiation leading to rapid warming of the Arctic. This shift will enhance global

mean temperature change around world, potentially (due to cause-effect feedback

mechanisms in the climate system) causing higher rise in sea level and, in the most

extreme climatic scenarios. For people living in coastal areas, even an increase in the

sea level by just a few centimetres could cause significant problems of erosion,

Figure 3: Observed Surface Air Temperature

12

flooding and damage to homes, livelihoods and infrastructure. Changes in

temperature patterns may damage food crops, disrupting food system in some parts of

the world. Plant and animal species will shift their ranges toward the poles or to

higher elevations seeking cooler temperatures and species that cannot do so may

become extinct. According to IPCC (2007) increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the

atmosphere also leads to increased ocean acidity, damaging ocean ecosystems.

2.2.2 Change in Global Precipitation

IPCC also suggests that an increase in the average global temperature is likely to lead

to changes in precipitation and atmospheric moisture because of changes in

atmospheric circulation and increases in evaporation and water vapor. From 1900 to

2005 precipitation (rain, sleet and snow) increased significantly in parts of the

Americas, northern Europe and northern and central Asia, but declined in the Sahel,

the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of the southern Asia. Patterns of

precipitation change are more spatially and seasonally variable than temperature

change, but where significant precipitation changes do occur they are consistent with

measured changes in stream flow (IPCC, 2007).

2.3 Climate change in Himalaya Region and Nepal

2.3.1 The Himalaya Region

Basic patterns of the climate in the Himalaya region are governed by the SAM and

winter monsoon systems of Asia (Mani, 1981) The central and eastern Himalaya

receives most precipitation during summer and the western Himalayan region receives

most of its precipitation in winter. The Himalaya regions show a wide variety of

climates. For every 1000m of altitude, there is generally about a 6° C temperature

drop. However, the temperature may vary from place to place. An east facing slope

has warm mornings and cool afternoons while a west facing slope the opposite. The

snow and ice over the Himalaya play an important role on the radiation balance of the

region and on the strength of Indian monsoon (Khandekar, 1992).

In its fourth assessment report, the IPCC depicts the Hindu Kush-Himalaya, including

Nepal, as a white spot, a region about which scientific information on climate change

is limited or lacking altogether. It is difficult to identify an accurate change in the

Himalayan climate because of its large size, inaccessibility and unavailability of

systematic climatological data (Chalise, 1994). Study conducted by Agarwal et al

13

(2003) shows that the temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau were increasing, and that

higher elevations were warming faster than the lower ones.

2.3.2 In Nepal

Nepal possesses various types of climate that ranges from alpine to tropical type from

the north to south border because of its diverse topography and steep slope.

Generally, there are four seasons in Nepal: summer monsoon (June-September), post-

monsoon (October-November), winter (December – February) and pre-monsoon

(March-May) (Yogacharya, 1998). The climate of Nepal is dominated by SAM and

about 80% of annual precipitation occurs during the summer monsoon (UNEP, 2001).

The length of the regular and systematic observations of climatological and

hydrological data in Nepal is only about 50 years old. Though systems for the

collection and dissemination of hydrological and meteorological data exist the

numbers of data gathering stations are insufficient. The existing stations are generally

located at the lower elevations in valleys and accessible places. Studies shows that

local variations in rainfall amount and timing can be drastic, with ridge receiving 4-5

times the rainfall amounts of

the valley situated nearby

(Higuchi et al, 1982).

2.3.2.1 Green House Gas

emission in Nepal

The per capita GHG emission

of Nepal is estimated at 42.6

Kg of CO2 in 1990 and 220.6

Kg of CO2 in 2030 which is

far below the emission levels

of other developing countries

(CSMT, 1996). The emission is

largely from rice field, solid waste, fossil fuel burning in cities and deforestation.

According to Maplecroft report on 2010 Nepal rank fourth most vulnerable country

due to climate change impacts, yet it has one of the lowest emissions in the world -

just 3, 241 thousand metric tons of CO2 (CDIAC, 2009) and 0.025% of total global

Figure 4: Carbon dioxide Emission of Nepal

14

Greenhouse Gas Emissions. On the whole the overall emission level of Nepal is

negligible as compared to other developing neighboring countries.

2.3.2.2 Change in Temperature

According to study carried out by Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, the

average temperature in Nepal is increasing at a rate of 0.06°C/year. However the

temperature rise in Himalayan region is higher at 0.08 °C/year than other region.

Average annual temperature in the Tarai region is increased by 0.04 °C/year (Shrestha

et al., 1999). Increase in temperature is lower in the monsoon and post monsoon

season than winter and pre-monsoon, by up to 1.6 °C by the 2090s; this difference is

partly due to the projected increase in monsoon rainfall and cloud cover, which will

reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance cooling through evaporation. Projected

temperature increases are lower in eastern Nepal than western and central by the

2090s and this difference will be about 0.7 °C (NCVST, 2009).

The variation is temperature in Nepal means that crop grown season is different. In

Himalaya region, for example, a single crop is grown in a year because temperature is

low and in such temperature crop takes more time to ripe. On the other hand, in the

Tarai, three crops a year can be grown if water supply is adequate. Similarly single

rice cropping is possible up to elevations of 2300 m in Jumla while double rice

cropping is limited to regions below 800 m.

2.3.2.3 Change in Precipitation

The varied landscape of Nepal matches its varies rainfall. During the SAM (June-

September) most locations in Nepal receive about to 80% of their annual precipitation

as rainfall. Topography interacts with the SAM to produce large variations in

precipitation (NCVST, 2009). Nearly 64% of the precipitations flow as surface runoff

in the rivers. Of the remaining 36%, some is retained as snow in the high Himalaya,

some percolates through the ground as ground water acting as natural reservoirs

which feeds the rivers to keep them flowing during the dry season. Nearly 8% of the

country’s area is estimated to be under permanent snow cover. Snow fall is estimated

to contribute about 10% of the total precipitation (Shrestha et al, 2003).

A study conducted by MOPE in 2004 has suggested that for the period 1981-1998 the

hills and mountains in the north showed across Nepal revealed that the hills and

mountains in the north showed increasing trends of rainfall while the plains in the

south were experiencing trend of rainfall. According NCVST (2009), modelling study

15

does not show a clear trend of increase or decreases projected mean annual

precipitation however suggested that precipitation is likely to be more uncertain

though storm intensity is anticipated to increase. GCMs project a wide range of

precipitation changes, especially in the monsoon: -14 to +40% by the 2030s

increasing -52 to 135% by the 2090s.The study also found that eastern and central

Nepal monsoon rainfall is projected to increase more than western Nepal.

2.4 Climate Change and Agriculture

In the 21st century, human will perhaps face more devastating, environmental threat,

namely due to global warming and thereby climate change. These changes could

result in irreversible damage to land and water ecosystems and loss of production

potential (IIASA, 2002). Climate change is interrelated with agriculture as both of

which take place on a global scale and has significant impact on agriculture in many

parts of the world (IPCC, 2007). Environmental change, particularly climate change,

will have a disproportionate impact on poor people in rural areas where livelihoods of

the majority depend directly on natural resources. Mountain agriculture, practiced

close to the margins of viable production, could be highly sensitive to climate change.

Risk levels of climate can induce large changes in risks in mountain agriculture

(Carter and Pary, 1994).

At the global level, the share of agriculture in total gross domestic product (GDP) of

developing countries is about 13%, in contrast to 2% of the developed countries. For

central, eastern, and western Africa, this share is over 31%, and in for South Asia it is

around 25%. The growing demand for food for an increasing population is threatening

natural resources as people strive to get the most out of land already in production

(IIASA, 2002). The problem become more serious when emerging water scarcity is

kept in mind due to climate change. The twin effects of growing demand and scarce

water are likely to pose serious threat to food security, poverty reduction and

protection of the environment. Sensitivity of food production to climate change is

greatest in developing countries due to less advanced technological buffering to

drought and floods (Parry et al, 1998). That is not the case in developing countries.

Most agronomists perceive that agricultural production will be affected by the

severity and pace of climate change, not so much by gradual trends in climate. If

change is gradual, there may be enough time for biota adjustment. Rapid climate

16

change, however, could harm agriculture in many countries, especially those that are

already suffering from rather poor soil and climate conditions, because there is less

time for optimum natural selection and adaptation.

2.4.1 Agriculture and GHGs Emission

Agriculture is one of the major sectors that has severe climate change impact. At the

same time, agriculture has been shown to produce significant effects on climate

change, primarily through the production and release of greenhouse gases such as

carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, but also by altering the Earth's land

cover, which can change its ability to absorb or reflect heat and light, thus

contributing to radiative forcing. Agriculture releases significant amounts of CO2,

CH4, and N2O to the atmosphere (Cole et al., 1997; IPCC, 2001a; Paustian et al.,

2004). According to IPCC 2007, agriculture accounted for an estimated emission of

5.1 to 6.1 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2005 (10-12% of total global anthropogenic emissions of

greenhouse gases).

Agricultural performance will also be governed by generation of GHGs. The more is

the agricultural production, the more will be the emission. The negligible GHGs

production from agriculture shows that Nepal has less production. Study conducted at

Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC) at Khumaltar showed average seasonal

methane emission from rice fields was 28kg/ha/season in rain-fed condition and also

found average maximum methane emission from rice field was 49.03 kg/ha in the

field supplied with 50% nitrogen + 15 cm stubble. Minimum of 7.7 kg/ha of methane

gas was found in the control fields. Further research on the GHGs in different eco-

zones is required to quantify and verify their contribution more precisely in the

agriculture (Malla, 2006).

2.4.2 Climate Change and Agriculture in Nepal

Agriculture land occupies nearly 20% of the total area of Nepal (UNEP, 2001). Out of

the total cultivated area of 29,680 sq km, only about 9,200 sq. km of the land is

currently irrigated and the rest of the area is dependent solely on rainfall for meeting

crop water requirements. As mentioned earlier agriculture plays an important role in

Nepal’s economy because the sector provides employment to around 76% of the

population, but contributes only about 35% of the total Gross Domestic Product

(NPC, 2010). Clearly this is a gap that needs to be addressed by pursuing appropriate

17

policies. About 81% of the populations currently have a daily income of less than

US$ 2 (World Bank, 2005) and most of them are subsistence farmers. Per capita

cereal grain availability has fallen from 198 kg in 1991 to an estimated 186 kg in 1997

and many districts face food deficits (UN, 1999). Thus food insecurity in Nepal

manifests itself in terms of insufficient per capita availability from own production.

This context may be due to low productivity, bad weather or the small size of holding

- a high proportion of rain fed farmers has holdings too small to produce enough

calories to feed the family (FAO, 2004).

In Nepal, most of the population relies on rice, maize and wheat that constitute about

38%, 17% and 14% of the total calorie supply respectively (FAO, 2004). Climatic

factors like precipitation and temperature can have significant impact on their

production. Lack of rains can create scientifically curious practices. Lack of rain

meant no moisture in land and farmers of Sindhupalchowk District conducted

marriage ceremony between toads in 2008 (Dixit, 2009). This practice shows how

severely famer’s livelihood has been affected variable rainfall but as is evident from

above discussion, it is very hard to attribute such anomalies to climate change.

Similarly eastern Tarai faced rain deficit in early monsoon of 2005/06. This meant

that crop production decreased by 12.5% on national basis. Nearly 10% of agricultural

land was left fallow. During the same period in mid-western Tarai heavy rain caused

major floods and in turn reduced agriculture production by 30% (Regmi, 2007).

According to NCVST (2009) production of vegetable protein (lentils, chick peas,

beans, and the like) has declined due to delayed monsoon rains and/or vertical shifts

in temperature regime.

2.5 Climate Change and Adaptation

Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic

stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities"

(IPCC, 2007). Responding to climate change, societies can respond to climate change

by adapting to its impacts and by reducing GHG emissions (mitigation), thereby

reducing the rate and magnitude of change. The capacity to adapt and mitigate is

dependent on socio-economic and environmental circumstances and the availability of

information and technology. The capacity to adapt is dynamic and is influenced by a

society’s productive base, including natural and man-made capital assets, social

networks and entitlements, human capital and institutions, governance, national

18

income, health and technology. It is also affected by multiple climate and non-climate

stresses, as well as development policy (IPCC synthesis, 2007).

More recent literature and studies suggest that adaptation is more than ―coping‖. In

well-adapted systems, people are doing well despite changing conditions. They are

doing well either because they shift strategies or because the underlying systems on

which their livelihoods are based are sufficiently resilient and flexible to absorb the

impact of changes (NCVST, 2009). Adaptation measures are categorized into two

parts.

A. Planned Adaptation:

Planned adaptations can be either reactive or anticipatory (undertaken before impacts

are apparent) (Shrestha et al., 2003). It includes programs and projects that

governments, NGOs, and international donors implement as a result of specific

climate impacts and vulnerability assessments. Planned adaptations are generally

made to respond to predicted impacts on ecosystem and hydrological system

(NCVST, 2009).

B. Autonomous Adaptation:

Autonomous adaptation includes actions that individuals, communities, businesses

and other organizations undertake on their own in response to the opportunities and

constraints they face as the climate changes. Autonomous actions are individual or

collective responses, almost entirely in the poorly recorded informal sector. These

involve changes in practices and technologies, diversification of livelihood systems,

access to financial resources, migration, resource rights and collective action to assess

services, resources or markets (NCVST, 2009)

2.5.1 Adaptation and Agriculture

The adaptive capacity of a resource system or a human society depends on the

resilience of these systems (IPCC, 2007). The resilience of agricultural practices in

the face of climate change depends on the nature and magnitude of region-specific

climate change, regional sensitivity, or the threshold and social resilience and

adaptive capacity of agricultural communities. Adjustment of planting dates to

minimize the effect of temperature increase-induced spikelet sterility can be used to

reduce yield instability, for example, by avoiding having the flowering period to

coincide with the hottest period. Adaptation measures to reduce the negative effects of

19

increased climatic variability may include changing the cropping calendar to take

advantage of the wet period and to avoid extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons and

storms) during the growing season (IPCC, 2007).

Due to late Monsoon and decrease in rainfall, farmers of Abukhaireni VDC in

Tanahun district of Nepal were forced to slash and burn the nearby forest and

cultivate in the land to cope up with the potential food shortages as they depended

only on the rain-fed land (Regmi, 2005). Nepalese households need to reduce their

dependency on agriculture, and the government has to increase food security through

various planned measures (FAO, 2007). Plan should include better storage and

distribution of food and unhindered access to markets. With changes in precipitation

and hydrology, temperature, length of growing season and frequency of extreme

weather events, considerable efforts would be required to prepare to deal with

climate-related impacts in agriculture.

2.6 Climate Impact Assessment and Vulnerability

21st century, depending on the level of greenhouse gas emissions, conventional

climate change impact studies focused primarily on physical exposure to average

climatic conditions in attempts to identify the vulnerabilities of a system. Carter et al

in 1994 proposed the need to conduct climate impact assessments in order to assist in

evaluating vulnerabilities to likely scenarios of climate change. They defined

vulnerability as the degree to which an exposure unit is disrupted or adversely

affected as a result of climatic effects.

The concept of vulnerability is at the kernel of our understanding of how communities

and natural systems, institutional structures and social relationships are affected by

climate change (Ahmed and Mustafa, 2007). The IPCC, in its Second Assessment

Report, defines vulnerability as ―the extent to which climate change may damage or

harm a system.‖ It adds that vulnerability ―depends not only on a system’s sensitivity,

but also on its ability to adapt to new climatic conditions‖ (Watson et al. 1996).

Looking at vulnerability from the food security point of view, the FAO publication

The State of Food Insecurity in the World (1999), defines vulnerability as ―the

presence of factors that place people at risk of becoming food insecure or

malnourished.‖ Clearly, this definition encompasses causes of food insecurity other

than climate change (e.g., armed conflict, landlessness, etc.). Nevertheless, the

20

concept of vulnerability includes hunger vulnerability—which refers to the

vulnerability of individuals or households rather than that of regions or economic

sectors (Olmos, 2001).

Climate change impact assessment refers to research and investigations designed to

find out what effect future changes in climate could have on human activities and the

natural world. Climate change impact assessment is frequently coupled with the

identification and assessment of possible adaptive responses to a changing climate

(UNEP, 2005).

A climate change impact assessment in agriculture usually begins by defining what is

usually called a baseline. A baseline consists in a reference climate defined for some

previously established past time period, usually 30 years, and a reference

socioeconomic baseline for the same period depicting the actual state of the

agricultural sector and a whole set of socioeconomic indicators describing the general

socioeconomic, technological, and management conditions in which agriculture has

been developing during that chosen time period. For well-based reasons a 30-year

period is usually chosen to coincide with what World Meteorological Organization

(WMO) defines as a normal period, which is 1961 – 1990. In some cases two

subsequent normal periods such as 1931 – 1960 and 1961 – 1990 are studied to find if

there is some significant difference between the behaviour of mean climate and some

extreme phenomena such analysis was done with meteorological drought in Cuba.

(Vega, 2008)

2.7 Agriculture policy and plans

Nepal has developed policies, strategies, plans and programs to improve agriculture

production. The 20 year Agriculture Perspective Plan (APP) 1997-2017, poverty

Reduction Strategy Papers or the medium term periodic plans (Tenth Five year Plan

and Three Year Interim Plan), and the National Agriculture Policy (2004) and

National Agriculture Policy (2006) outline the broader policy context for agriculture

development in Nepal. APP emphasizes on few priority inputs, outputs and outcomes

(NAPA/TWG, 2010).

The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) has also identified

agriculture as one of the most important sector to be addressed. In 2011 Government

21

of Nepal Approved Nepal Climate Change Policy which tries to incorporate issues of

agriculture insurance when crop production fails.

2.8 Development of Hypothesis

The hypotheses used in the study were as follows.

In Nepal, temperature is rising and its rate of increase is higher in the

mountain than in the Tarai.

Unlike temperature, precipitation data does not reveal any significant change

in their trends. The inter-annual variation of rainfall, particularly monsoon

precipitation, is so large that observed trends are uncertain.

Climate change is the cause of decline in agriculture production and livestock

production.

Impacts of climate change are likely to increase.

Appropriate adaptive strategies to reduce impact of climate change at

community level

22

Chapter III

METHODOLOGY

3.1 Research Approach

The selection of methodology is one of the most important parts of any research. To

identify impacts of climate change on agriculture the study has taken households as

the unit of analysis. According to UNDP (2005), in rural economies, it may be more

appropriate to focus on the household or village as the unit of response. Here the

objective may be to secure a minimum level of income rather than to maximize it, and

the focus of analysis should be on the strategies developed to reduce the negative

effects of crop yield rather than on those to increase the positive ones. Frequently

referred to as coping strategies, these have been analyzed in particular detail in the

context of risk of hunger (often related to drought). Thus, climate impact assessments

which included analysis of responses at household and village level tended to borrow

from existing approaches, tailoring them to consider changes in climate rather than

variations of weather. This model was used in climate impact assessment in Kenya

and India, see Akong’s et al. (1988) and in Gadgil et al. (1988) in Parry et al. (1988).

Geographical Information System (GIS) application by using ArcGIS 9.3 software

was carried out for assessment of land use changes. This method also included

mapping of changes in the patterns of temperature and precipitation. The study made

attempts to explore the extent and rate of shift of agriculture land in study area with

changes in temperature and precipitation.

3.2 Criteria for Site Selection

Based on literature review and objectives set for this study, selection of study site

follows following criteria

• Study site located at mountain region

• Agriculture practice depending upon rainfall

• Availability of meteorological station in study site

• Accessible for research

As Timure VDC fulfills the above mentioned criteria so it is selected as study site.

23

3.3 Study Area

3.3.1 Country’s Background

3.3.1.1 Overview

Bounded in the East, West and South by India and in the North by the Tibetan

autonomous region of the People’s Republic of China, Nepal has mountainous and

hilly topography. Nepal extends on an average 885 km in the east-west direction and

193 km in the north-south direction. With an area of 147,181 km², Nepal is divided

into five development regions, 14 zones and 75 districts. After the introduction of

republican order, Nepal political and administrative boundaries are being redefined

but decisions have yet to be taken. According to the interim constitution Nepal will be

a federal republic.

Nepal’s altitude ranges from 60 m in the Tarai in the south to 8848 m in the High

Himalaya in the north. Lying between altitudes ranging from 4,877 to 8,848m above

sea level, the mountain region includes more than 250 peaks with elevations above

6000m and 13 peaks with elevation of over 8000m. Mt. Everest the highest peak in

the world is located in Nepal eastern Himalays. Nepal Tarai region occupies about

15% of the total area of the country while rest is under hill and mountain.

Nepal has been divided into seven eco-zones (Upreti and Dhital, 1996 based on

Hagan 1969) and this division emerges from complex mountain building processes.

a) Tarai (1000-2000m)

b) Chure range(Siwalik, 200-700m)

c) Mahabharat Range (1000-2500m)

d) Fore Himalaya (2000-4500m)

e) Higher Himalaya (>4000m) and

f) Inner Valleys (2500-4000m)

As result of the diverse landscapes Nepal has rich bio diversity. The landscape

accommodates 7,000 species of flowering plants, 175species of mammals, 170

species of fishes, 861 species of birds, and over 6,000 species of butterflies (IUCN,

1996). Apart from its richness in biodiversity and water resources, the high relief and

steep and rugged topography results low accessibility and physical hardship and

productive agriculture limited to the Tarai, river terraces and valley bottoms. These

24

pose enormous challenges to provide basic services such as drinking water, energy

and food to the people. Only 29% of the land is suitable for agriculture and rest is

marginal land comprising of steep slopes, flood/landslide prone areas, high relief, and

snow and ice (CBS, 2008). Karnali, Gandaki and Koshi are three main river basins of

Nepal with a drainage area of 191,000 sq km. About 74 % of this basin area lies in

Nepal.

3.3.1.2 Climatic Variation

Nepal’s climate is affected by two major natural features, the Himalayan mountain

range and the SAM. The annual mean temperature of around 15°C gradually increases

from the north to the south with exceptions in the valleys in the mountains. Many

valleys are warm and have sub-tropical climate. Nepal’s annual mean precipitation is

around 1800 mm. The diverse climatic condition of the country has been classified

into the following five types:

Table 1: Climate region in Nepal

S.N. Climate type Elevation Temperature Rainfall

1. Sub-tropical 1000 m 20-25°C 1100-3000 mm

2. Warm Temperate 1000 m-2000 m 15°-20°C 500-2300 mm

3. Cool Temperate 2000 m -3000 m 3°C-10°C 275 to 2,000

mm

4. Alpine 3000 m-4500 m 3°C-10°C 150-200 mm

5. Tundra Above 4500 m less than 3°C -

Source: MoEnv, 2010

3.3.1.3 Population and Distribution

The increase in population and horizontal expansion of cultivated area in Nepal has

been dramatic since 1950s. Of the several factors that contributed to the

transformations: one is the improvement of health care, particularly eradication of

once malarial infested Tarai (Ives and Messerli, 1989). In 1950 Nepal had a

population of 9 million which increased to 28,901,790 in 2007: as rise of 3 times.

According to CBS of 2001, the population of Nepal has increased from 18.5million in

1991 to 23.2 million in 2001 with an annual growth rate of 2.27%. Correspondingly,

the population density has increased from 126 to 158 persons / km². The urban

population has increased to 14.2% of the total in 2001 distributed over 58 urban

centers as against 9.2 % in 1991. The Tarai remain the densely populated region of

Nepal due to better accessibility and fertile soil.

25

3.3.1.4 Socio-Economic Features

Human Development Index of 5.1, Nepal ranked 144th out of 174 countries in 2009.

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2008 was estimated at over US$12

billion (adjusted to Nominal GDP), making it the 115th economy in the world (HDR,

2009). Above 76% of the population is engaged in subsistence agriculture, (NPC,

2010), and this sector is the second largest contributor to the GDP 33%, after service

sector at 39%. Agricultural produces grown in the Tarai region includes tea, rice,

corn, wheat, sugarcane, root crops, milk, and buffalo meat. However varying rainfall

nature of agriculture its contribution to GDP greatly depends upon the favourability of

the weather during crop in season. The share of industry’s contribution to GDP was

much lower at 23% in 2009 (ADB, 2009). Industry mainly involves the processing of

agricultural produce, including jute, sugarcane, tobacco, and grains. Due to high

dependency in agriculture, any direct change in the climatic variables will seriously

affect the agriculture and economy.

3.3.2 Rasuwa District

Rasuwa district is one of the remote Himalayan districts in Nepal. It is bordered with

Tibet an autonomous region of China in North and with three districts of Nepal, in

east with Sindhupalchowk, in south Nuwakot and in west Dhading. It has 18 VDCs

and Timure is also one of them that is located near the China boarder. It is located at

27°55’ N to 28°25’ N longitude and 85°00’E to 85°50’E latitude and altitude ranges

from 614m to 7227m. It has 1512 sq. km area covering High Mountain, mid hill,

valley and river basin.

Table 2: Land cover of Rasuwa district

S.N. Land cover Area (ha) Percentage

1. Forest 47494 31.4

2. Shrub/bush 15667 10.4

3. Agriculture land/Grass land 9443 6.3

4. Water bodies 54 0.0

5. Bare land 8983 5.9

6. Snow 25138 16.6

7. Others 44308 29.3

Environment statistics of Nepal (CBS, 2004)

The population of Rasuwa district is 44,731 according to CBS census in 2001. It is

0.19 percent of total population in Nepal. Population density of district is less 30 per

26

sq. km due to its extreme train. Most of the people residing in this district are from

Tamang community which covers 63.75 percent of total population. Per capita

income of people residing here is 331 USD.

In Rasuwa district extreme temperature variation exist due to uneven topographical

feature. District can be divided in to three sub climatic zone tundra, alpine, temperate

(CBS, 2005). Average temperature ranges from 4°C in winter to 24°C in summer and

average rainfall is 691.7mm.

3.3.3 Timure VDC

Figure 5: Timure Village

This study uses findings from Timure Village Development Committee (VDC). The

VDC is selected because of its marginal socio-economic and agricultural character.

The VDC lies in Rasuwa District in the Bagmati Zone of Central Nepal.

Geographically the VDC is located between 85°20‖N and 85° 36‖ N longitude and

28° 12‖E and 28° 21‖E Latitude (Survey Department, 1992). The VDC has a total

area 154.05 km². It is bordered by Tibetan Autonomous region of China on the north

and Langtang VDC on the east, Bridim VDC on the south, and Thuman VDC on the

west. Bedang, Bhrangkhark, Ghattekhola Gaun, Khaidi, Rasuwagadhi, Timure

(Sedang) are the major settlements of this VDC. The altitude of these settlements

ranges from 1,730 m to 3,730 m. along the trail to Timure village many Manis and

chhorten are found. The historical fort of Rasuwagadhi also lies in this VDC.

27

Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has established a meteorological station

in Timure that measures temperature and rainfall.

Topography has influence on the climate of Timure VDC. In the mid hills of the VDC

above 2500m (e.g. Khaidi, Bhrangkhark) climate is temperate (NGIIP, 2002). In the

higher regions above 5000 m alpine climate prevails. The average annual temperature

measured in Timure village is 16.8ºC with 11.4ºC minimum and 22.1ºC maximum

averages (DHM, 2009). Ghattekhola and Timure lies in Basin of Bhotekoshi River are

relatively warmer than other settlements of this VDC. The monsoon brings lot of rains

from June to September. October, November, March and April are clear with pleasant

climate. Snowfall occurs in the month of January and February due to the westerlies.

3.3.3.1 Demography

Annual population growth rate of the VDC is -0.83. This negative growth rate may

be due to high infant mortality rate (101.03) or that young people migration to Gulf

and European country. 80.65 percent Tamang, 11.6 percent Newar, 3.9 percent

Chhetri and 1.35 percent Brahmin and Magar resides in this VDC. The average

literacy rate is 34.4 percent which includes 44.7 percent of male and 22.8 percent

literacy among women.

A single health post in the VDC provides basic health services to local people. But the

post has insufficient facilities. Local people depend on the hospital at Dhunche or

Kathmandu for treating diseases. Skin diseases, respiratory illness, diarrhea, eye

diseases, round and tape worm, anemia, disorders related with vitamins and nutrition

are the major ailment that affect the people of Timure VDC the most (Rasuwa District

Profile, 2008).

3.3.3.2 Socio-economic feature

In Timure VDC 77.9 percent of total population (above 10 year) is involved in some

form of income generating activities like agriculture, government service, business

etc. The male members are more active than female: 174 men and 146 females

women are engaged in economic activities. Out of 102 households only 12 do not

depend on agriculture. Three households are engaged in business while 9 households

depend on government services. As resident of Timure used to trade with Tibet, but

when Tibet became autonomous region of China the volume of trade reduced.

28

Farming system of the VDC is traditional and subsistence. As mentioned earlier about

88.2 percent of people are dependent on agriculture (Rasuwa District Profile, 2008).

The system is also based on keeping only 119 ha cultivated land in the VDC and the

villager grow maize, potato, millet, wheat, apple, cabbage and chili(NGIIP, 2002).

The climate of Khaidi village is favorable for horticulture and vegetable farming.

Livestock is a major source of cash income for the farmers of Khaidi Village. Yak,

sheep, goat, cattle and buffalo are the major livestock kept in this VDC. Near

Rasuwagadi and Timure off farm business like pottering and hotel business are

important for those who live along the foot trail.

3.3.3.3 Geology

With an uneven as the altitude ranging from 1700m to more than 5000 m, slate,

phyllite, schist and quartzite are dominant rocks available in the VDC. Lende Khola

and Kerung Khola are head waters of Trisuli River and they meet at Rasuwagadi. In

1964, Longda Glacier Lake breached causing a glacial lake outburst flood

(Bajracharya, 2009). In this GLOF event, Lende Khola transported huge amount of

sediments and deposited them near Timure and Ghattekhola village. The present

topography of Ghattekhola village was largely defined by this event.

3.3.3.4 Energy

The residents of Timure VDC depend on traditional, commercial and alternative

sources to meet their energy needs. Fuel wood, animal dung and agricultural residue

are the main energy sources of traditional. Similarly, petroleum products constitute

commercial energy source whereas micro hydro and solar are other renewable energy

sources. Almost all the population of Timure VDC depends on fuel wood for cooking

purpose. A micro hydro plant with capacity to produce 115 KW of electricity is built

in Ghatte Khola which serves all households of Timure VDC with electricity for

lighting. The residents are dependent on Langtang National Park for fuel wood. They

collect timber to meet construction needs from the park. This dependence puts

pressure on forest and biodiversity of the national park.

3.3.3.5 Transportation and communication

Communication and transportation are the major indicators of development. The VDC

is not linked with any motorable road. The nearest road head is Syafrubesi which is 12

km ahead and it takes 5 hours to walk to Timure. Nepal Telecom has provided

29

CDMA phones and V-SAT services which helps local communities to communicate.

There is single line of V-SAT and 7 CDMA phones in the VDC (Rasuwa District

Profile 2005). With assistance of Chinese government the 18km long motorable

Kerung-Rasuwagadi-Timure road is being built. The road will connect with

Kathmandu-Syafrubesi road and is likely to improve mobility and trading

opportunities with Kerung, Bazar and Kathmandu.

3.3.4 Map of Study Area

Figure 6: Map of Timure VDC

3.4 Research Design

The field work for the research was carried out on June 2009. The research design is

presented in figure 7.

30

Figure 7: Research design

3.5 Data Collection

The collection of data involved the following activities.

3.5.1 Primary Data

3.5.1.1 Field Survey

As the research includes assessment of the condition of study area, direct observations

is important. Various information and present issues have been collected through

direct observation during the field visit. A detail check list was prepared and used for

collecting data during the transect visit. The research elicits information by staying in

close proximity of study area.

3.5.1.2 Household Questionnaire survey

Household questionnaire was administered to assess the adaptive strategy for

agriculture practice in study site. A total of 31 households were randomly selected for

the purpose of household survey. Household survey covers 30.39 percent of sample

size. The list was collected from offices of the VDC and District Development

Committee (DDC). A semi-structured questionnaire was prepared including both

31

close - and open - ended questions. The questionnaire incorporated different aspects

of climate change, hazards, and agricultural production.

3.5.1.3 Key Informant Survey and Focus Group Discussion (FGD):

These methods were applied to

draw different information from the

key informants to identify resources

and the challenges for the

assessment of climate change

impacts. The opinions were

collected through formal and

informal discussions with key

informants and through focus group

discussions.

3.5.2 Secondary Data

3.5.2.1 Hydro-meteorological data analysis:

• Temperature record from 1989 to 2008

• Rainfall record from 1975 to 2007

The available hydro meteorological data for in Rasuwa district was analyzed for

detecting annual variations in temperature, precipitation and discharge of Trisuli

River were looked. The following details were looked at.

a. Trends in mean maximum temperature

b. Precipitation

c. River runoff

The data related to rainfall and temperature was taken from Meteorological Records

of Nepal published by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM).

Rainfall and temperature record from Dhunche, Langtang and Timre stations were

estimated. For estimating the average temperature and rainfall, the arithmetic mean

method was employed. The five year moving average method was used to find out the

normal trend value for the unit of time falling at the middle of the period covered in

the calculation of average.

Figure 8: Focus Group Discussions

32

3.5.2.2 Spatial Analysis

Data provided from Department of Survey (DoS) were used to analyze land use

change, trend and shift, extent, timing, form of precipitation and temperature of the

study area. All the data, information so far collected was compiled using GIS

software. A comprehensive GIS-based analysis, ArcGIS 9.3 Spatial Analyst, was used

in order to demonstrate the change in climate and its effect on agriculture practice.

To find the trend of temperature and precipitation change, Inverse Distance Weighted

(IDW) interpolation tool was used. Interpolation is a procedure used to predict the

values of cells at locations that lack sampled points. IDW estimates cell values by

averaging the values of simple data points in the vicinity of each cell. The closer a

point is to the center of the cell being estimated, the more influence, or weight; it has

in the averaging process. This method assumes that the variable being mapped

decreases in influence with distance from its sampled location (McCoy and Johnston,

2002).

For the interpolation, following meteorological stations which are around the study

area were selected.

Figure 9: Meteorological stations use for interpolation

33

1. Jomsom 2. LarkeSamdo 3.Jagat

4. Chekampar 5. Nuwakot 6.Pansayakhola

5. Dhunche 8. Langtang 9.Timure

10. Tarke Ghyang 11. Jiri

3.5.2.3 Socio-Economic and Other Data

Data published from CBS was used to analyze socioeconomic status of the study area.

Books, annual reports and other publications from different governmental and non-

governmental organizations, related websites and online publications etc. were

reviewed for secondary information.

3.6 Data Analysis

3.6.1 Primary data

For analyzing socio-economic data collected from the field were analyzed using MS

Excel and SPSS. Bar diagram and pie chart were generated after the analysis.

3.6.2 Secondary data

For the analysis of agriculture landuse change ArcGIS 9.3 software was used.

Secondary data was collected from Nepal Landuse Project and Department of Survey.

Arithmetic mean and linear trend was used to analyze hydro-meteorological data

which was collected from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology.

34

Chapter IV

OBSERVATION AND RESULTS

4.1 Socio-Economic Status and People’s Perception

4.1.1 Population and Ethnicity

Based on ethnicity, the major groups of the respondent were Janajati covering 83.76%

of Tamang, followed by Newar 11.63% and Magar 4.88%. The distribution of ethnic

groups with their % population is shown in the figure 10.

Figure 10: Ethnicity of Respondents

The respondents of the population comprised of 70.97% male and 29.03% female.

The distribution of male and female percentage population in study is presented as

below.

Figure 11: Sex Ratio

83.72%

11.63%4.88%

Tamang Newar Magar

70.97%

29.03%

Male Female

35

4.1.2 Literacy Rate and Family Structure

The literacy status of the sampled households of the study sites were illiterate, literate

(just read and write) and up to SLC (primary and secondary level education) covering

62.79%, 25.58% and 11.63%, which indicates that there is dominancy of illiterate

group. Educational status of respondents is represented as follows

Figure 12: Literacy Rate

4.1.3 Occupation Status

The involvement of people both in agriculture and house work were 73.17%. Rest of

the population involved in service sector 4.88% including government and private,

12.2% on business and 9.76% on off-farm business. It shows that, the majority of the

population depends on agriculture as well as job and business is other major options

for them.

Figure 13: Occupation Status of Respondents

62.79%

25.58%

11.63%

Illiterate Literate SLC

73.17%

12.20%

9.76%4.88%

Agriculture Business/Hotel Off-farm Service

36

4.1.4 Landholding Size

In study area all land come under Bari/Pakho category which means unirrigated land.

According to study conducted, 41.46% people have less than 5 ropani, 34.15% has

less than 5-10 ropani land, 12.2% has 11-25 ropani, 7.31% respondents has 25-50

ropani land and 4.88% respondents are landless.

Figure 14: Landholding Status

4.1.5 Major Crops and Crop Calendar

According to the focus group discussion conducted in the study area, maize, wheat,

millet, barley and potato are the major crops planted in Timure VDC. About 20 years

before chili used to be the major crop here but later it was replaced by maize as its

production reduced due to fungus. People of Khaidi village began apple farming in

commercial scale but they got benefit from them only for two years. New disease

caused wilting of apple leaves and production was decreased. The crop plantation

schedule adopted by farmers of in Timure VDC is as follows.

Table 3: Crop Calendar in Timure VDC

(Field survey, 2009)

S. N. Crop Plantation time Reaping time

1 Wheat November May

2. Maize March August

3. Millet August December

4. Potato February July

5. Barley September May

4.88%

41.46%

34.15%

12.20%

7.31%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

Landless Less than 5 Ropani

5-10 Ropani 11-25 Ropani 25-50 Ropani

37

4.1.6 Food Sufficiency

Agriculture production produced in the field of Timure VDC is insufficient for their

livings. About 48.4% respondent said that crop produced in their field is sufficient for

less than 3 months, 35.5% said for 3-6 months, 9.7% said for 7-12 months and 6.5%

people has no production and they have to buy food whole year.

4.1.7 Energy

According to field survey conducted almost population in Timure VDC depends on

fuel wood for cooking purpose and Micro Hydro Power for lighting. Ghatte Khola

Micro Hydro Power generates 115 KW electricity and the entire households in

Timure VDC are benefited from this MHP. Fuel wood is collected from forest of

Langtang National Park. Their dependency in forest for fuel wood and timber for

construction needed for homes is exerting pressure on biodiversity of the Langtang

National Park.

4.2 Climate

The meteorological stations in Rasuwa District are located in Dhunche, Langtang and

Timure. Ward 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 of Timure VDC has similar climatic and

topographic condition as Dhunche and ward no. 1 and 9 of Timure VDC has similar

climatic condition like Langtang. For this field observation was conducted.

6.50%

48.40%

35.50%

9.70%

0%0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

Buy food Less than 3 3-6month 7-12 month More than 1year

Figure 15: Food sufficiency

38

4.2.1 Temperature

Temperature record from 1989 to 2008 of Dhunche and Langtang stations were used

for the analysis and the data was collected from Department of Hydrology and

Meteorology. For the temperature analysis there was only three years data was

available. As sufficient data is not available it is not used for the analysis.

Annual Mean Temperature of study area is 9.5 °C. Temperature is high in monsoon

season with 17.63°C maximum mean and 11.29°C minimum mean and low in winter

season with 8.84°C maximum mean and -1.22°C minimum mean(See Annex I).

Table 4: Temperature Distribution (°C) in Timure VDC

Temperature

S.

N.

Station

Annual

mean

Annual

max

Annual

min

Pre- Monsoon Monsoon Post-

monsoon

Winter

max min max min max min Max min

1. Dhunche 15.47 20.48 10.47 21.67 10.69 24.04 16.00 21.11 7.33 15.09 3.84

2. Langtang 3.52 7.07 -0.03 6.68 -1.17 11.22 6.58 7.79 0.76 2.59 -

6.29

3. Mean 9.50 13.77 5.22 14.17 4.76 17.63 11.29 14.45 4.04 8.84 -1.2

Figure 16: Location of Meteorological Stations

39

Table 5: Temperature Trend ((°C/year))

S.N.

Station Annual Mean

Annual max

Annual min

Pre- Monsoon Monsoon Post- Monsoon Winter

max min max min max min max min

1 Dhunche 0.012 0.132 -0.107 0.074 -0.11 0.158 -0.04 0.188 -0.16 0.108 -

0.21

2 Langtang 0.151 0.076 0.227 0.143 0.238 0.13 0.123 0.049 0.192 -0.01 0.35

6

3 Mean 0.0815 0.104 0.06 0.108 0.061 0.14 0.041 0.118 0.016 0.044 0.07

The annual mean temperature of Dhunche station, found to be 15.47ºC with 10.4ºC

minimum and 20.4ºC maximum averages. The trend line has clearly indicated that the

mean annual mean and maximum mean temperature in the station has increasing

trend, 0.012ºC/year and 0.13ºC/year respectively. The minimum mean temperature is

also in decreasing trend of -0.107ºC/year.

The mean annual temperature of Langtang station is found to be 3.519ºC along with

7.066ºC average maximum temperature and -0.028ºC average minimum temperature.

Langtang Station has positive trend of increasing temperature with 0.151ºC/year in

mean annual temperature. There is also increasing trend in maximum and minimum

mean, 0.076 ºC/year and 0.226 ºC/year respectively.

Above data indicates that Mean annual temperature of the study area is in increasing

trend with 0.085°C/year. Trend of temperature increase is high in pre-monsoon season

and low in winter season. It indicates that summer is getting longer and hotter. It has

adverse effect on chilly farming as increased fungus attack lead to decreased

production.

4.2.2 Precipitation

Precipitation record from 1975 to 2007 of Timure, Dhunche and Langtang stations

were used for the analysis and the data was collected from Department of Hydrology

and Meteorology. The mean annual precipitation in three stations of Rasuwa district is

1159 mm and of the precipitation occurs in June, July and August. In these month

59.25% rainfall occurs. Snowfall occurs in areas located above 1900m altitude during

winter season (See Annex II).

40

Table 6: Seasonal distribution of rainfall

Table 7: Precipitation trend

The annual average precipitation at Dhunche, Langtang and Timure Stations are

1948.42mm, 617.01mm and 911.71mm respectively. All the three stations show the

increasing trend of precipitation. In Dhunche trend is increaseing by 0.79 mm/year, in

Langtang 7.36 mm/year and in Timure 6.611 mm/year.

Figure 17: Annual Average precipitation in Timure VDC

The trend of precipitation is increasing in the monsoon season by 8.65 mm/year and

decreasing in winter by 2.19 mm/year. It shows that water availability is low in winter

which affect local livelihood by drying water sources for drinking water and for

irrigating winter crops. Increasing trend of precipitation indicates that water related

hazards will be high during monsoon season. Study conducted in Langtang region by

Chaulagain in 2006 suggest that number of rainy days are decreasing.

14.31%

59.25%

20.05%

6.39%

Pre-monsoon Monsoon

Post-Monsoon Winter

Rainfall (mm)

S.N. Station Annual mean Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-Monsoon Winter

1 Dhunche 1948 280 1118 407 141

2 Langtang 617 92 400 96 27

3 Timure 911 124 541 192 52

Mean 1159 165 686 232 74

Rainfall Trend (mm/year)

S.N. Station Annual mean Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-Monsoon Winter

1 Dhunche 0.79 -5.46 16.32 -3.71 -6.34

2 Langtang 7.36 3.06 4.61 -0.02 -0.28

3 Timure 6.61 -0.46 5.03 1.99 0.04

4 Mean 4.92 -0.95 8.65 -0.58 -2.19

41

4.3 Water Resource

4.3.1. Impact on Water Availability

Focus group discussion conducted during field survey shows that Ghattekhola,

Gumbaling, Simpani and Chuwalung streams are good sources of drinking water but

they are also drying. In Khaidi Village, people are using only one water source for

drinking water because other water sources dried up. Due to limited water reserve

possibility of contamination of water borne diseases is high during rainy season.

Women have to walk one and half hours to collect drinking water. Due to decreased

rainfall in winter and pre monsoon season water is less available for agricultural

which is the major cause for declining production. People say that good irrigation

facility can boost agriculture production. If drinking water system and irrigation

system is built in Ghatte khola, problem of water scarcity can be solved in Timure

VDC.

4.3.2. Change in Water Runoff/Discharge

Discharge record from 1977 to 2006 of Trisuli River at Betrabati station was used for

the analysis and the data was collected from Department of Hydrology and

Meteorology. The trend analysis of annual mean discharge is 213.86 m³/sec and the

annual trend of discharge is increasing by 2.667 m³/sec. Discharge in monsoon is

increasing by 7.724 m³/sec and decreasing in winter by -0.144 m³/sec. In monsoon

season 57.96% of total discharge occurs and in winter least discharge occurs that is

6.07% (See Annex III).

Table 8: Discharge of Trisuli River at Betrabati Station

Annual

Average

Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-

Monsoon

Winter

Discharge ( m³/s) 213.86 72.86 495.78 234.88 51.91

Discharge Trend 2.667 0.244 7.724 2.846 -0.144

42

4.4. People’s Perception

4.4.1. Temperature, Precipitation and Snowfall Pattern

83.72% respondent perceived that temperature is increasing while 13.92%

respondents found that the temperature remains the same as before. About 2.33%

suggests that temperature is decreasing.

Figure 19: People's perception on Temperature

About 61.9% villagers suggest that annual rainfall is decreasing, while according to

15.5% respondents, rainfall is increasing. Yet 13.9% said that rainfall is same as

before while 8.7% perceive that there is untimely rainfall in the area. Generally

people suggested that rainfall in winter season is decreasing while that in monsoon

season is increasing. Respondents whose livelihood is agriculture suggested that

rainfall is decreasing.

83.72%

2.33%13.92%

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

Increased Decreased Same as before

8.52%

57.96%

27.46%

6.07%

PREMONSOON MONSOON POST MONSOON WINTER

Figure 18: Seasonal Discharge in Percentage

43

Figure 20: People's perception on Precipitation

Most of the respondent (85.37%) said that snowfall is decreasing, 9.76% said that

snowfall is same as before while 4.88% said that there is unusual pattern of snowfall.

People have experienced less days of snowfall. There is less snowfall at the lower part

of Khaidi where snowfall used to occur.

Figure 21: People's Perception on Snowfall

4.4.2. Impact on Agriculture

Due to changing climate farmers in Timure VDC have noticed reduced in agricultural

production. About 60.98% said that production is decreasing, 7.32% said increasing

and 31.71 said that there is no significant change in agricultural production. People in

Khaidi village found that the apple production has significantly decreased.

15.50%

61.90%

13.90%8.70%

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

Increased Decreased Same as befor Untimely rainfall

0.00%

85.37%

9.76% 4.88%

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

Increased Decreased Same as before Untimely

60.98%

7.32%

31.71%

0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%

Production decreasing Production increasing No significant change

Figure 22: Perception on Agricultural Production

44

11.90%

65.85%

17.07%

4.88%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

Wild animal Disease/pest Lack of Irrigation I don’t know

85% respondent told that the decrease in agricultural production is due to new

diseases and pest, 11.9% people told that its due to damaged caused by wild animal

which come from Langtang National Park. Wild boar and deer damage standing crop.

New pests have damaged apple and chili farming.

4.4.3 Water Supply

People use piped water (60.98%) for drinking to reduce

time taken for collecting water. 21.95% respondents

have not adopted any measure and 7.32% suggested that

they have not changed their strategies. But 9.76%

respondents from Khaidi village told that they had made

a ditch to collect water from spring during dry season.

About 87.8% people said, they have not taken any

adaptation measure for irrigation while 7.87% said that

they have built canal and 4.88% told that they have

utilized waste water from kitchen for irrigation in

kitchen garden.

Figure 25: Drinking Water Supply

60.98%

9.76%

21.95%

7.32%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

Water piping Water ditch No measure adapted I don’t know

Figure 24: Drinking Water at Khaidi

Figure 23: Perception on decreasing production

45

Figure 26: Irrigation Water Supply

4.4.4 People’s Perception on Forest Resource

Respondent said that forest condition was increased (64.5%) during the political

insurgency (Maoist-Government conflict), 6.5% said that it is same as before and 29%

respondent told that forest is decreasing day by day due to demand of fuel wood for

cooking.

About 51.6% respondent said that due to increasing demand of fuel wood, there is

scarcity of fuel wood, 6.5 % respondent said that wildlife from Langtang National

Park damage their crops, 16.1% people told that there is depletion of wildlife in

forest, 12.9% people told that there is increase in invasive species like Eupatorium

adenophorum ―banmara‖, 3.2% people told that there is less availability of fodder for

cattle and 9.7% people said that there is decrease in forest.

7.32%

87.80%

4.88%

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

Construction of irrigation canal

No measure adapted Use of waste water

29%

6.50%

64.50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Forest is degraded Same as before Forest is dense

Figure 27: Forest Condition

46

Figure 28: Issues of Forest

4.4.5 People’s Perception on Disaster

Landslide is serious natural disaster in Timure VDC which damages agricultural field

and block road and trails. 19.4% respondent said that drought, 3.2% said flood, 6.5%

said soil erosion, 64.5% said landslide and 6.5% said heavy snowfall as a serious

disaster.

Figure 29: Perception on Disaster

Climate induced disaster is causing difficulty in livelihood of local people. 51.6%

respondents said that climatic disaster has impact on agriculture, 32.3% told on

drinking water and 9.7% told on infrastructure and 6.5% respondents told there is no

impact of natural disaster.

6.50%

16.10%

51.60%

12.90%

3.20%

9.70%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

Wildlife & Agriculture

Depletion of wild life

Scarcity of fuelwood

Invasive species

Less availability of

fodder

Forest coverage

decreasing

19.40%

3.20%6.50%

64.50%

6.50%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

Drought Flood Soil erosion Landslide Heavy snowfall

47

Figure 30: Impact of Climate Induced Disaster

For preventing agricultural land from climatic disaster local people have adapted

different techniques. 12.9% told they had made retaining wall, 51.7% told they had

made terraces, 32.2% told they follow mixed farming and 3.2% told that they have

not done anything to adapt.

Figure 31: Preventive Measure

Though there is no severe destruction of local livelihood by natural disaster people

have maintained resilience during low agricultural productivity. 32.4% respondents

said that they take support from their neighbor, 22.9% told that they take loan, 11.7%

told that they depend on remittance, 6.72% told that they depend on off-farm

business, 16.58% respondent sells their livestock during extreme condition and 9.7%

acquire support from GOs and NGOs.

32.30%

51.60%

9.70%6.50%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

Drinking water Agriculture Infrastructure No impact

12.90%

3.20%

32.20%

51.70%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

Retaining wall No measure taken Mixed farming Terraces

48

Figure 32: Resilience from Extreme Condition

4.5 Change in Spatial Distribution of Climatic Parameters

Because of the varied rainfall nature of Nepal, agriculture is always vulnerable to

unfavorable weather events and climatic conditions. Despite technological advances

such as improved crop, weather and climate related uncertainties are still key factors

in determining agricultural productivity. Since climate varies over space and time, its

effect on agriculture varies accordingly. Spatial pattern is likely to change due to

climate change. By mapping these distributions, it is possible to provide place-

specific information for policy makers concerning altered levels of resource

availability due to climate change.

5.5.1. Temperature Change:

It has observed that cold areas are decreasing. In 1990 area having average

temperature more than 13.5°C (i.e. average annual temperature) was 46.008 sq km in

Timure VDC. But in 2007 it was increased to 69.24 sq km. Hotter areas (>13.5°C) are

32.40%

22.90%

11.70%

6.72%

16.58%

9.70%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

Support from Neighbour

Loan Remittance Off-farm Selling livestock

Support from GOs & NGOs

Figure 33: Change in Temperature

49

increasing by 1.5 times.

Increasing temperature and increase in hotter area in Timure signifies that the present

climate is not much favorable to bring desired production unless their cropping

pattern is changed. But change in temperature helped people to plant new crops like

seasonal vegetables etc.

4.5.2. Precipitation:

Timure VDC gets more rain in pre and post monsoon season compared to surrounding

areas. Interpolated map shows that average rainfall increased in 2007 (971.47-

1,067.21mm) near Khaidi area in compared to 1990 (815.20-950.57mm). Near

cultivated area, the rainfall is high in monsoon season which is 541.41 to 610.71mm

but it is less that other areas. Less rainfall occur on winter season that is 51.39-59.21

mm in cultivated area (See Annex V). In past there were only 4.76 sq.km area which

gets high rainfall (more than 1000mm) but now there are 67. 32sq.km of total area

gets high rainfall. It is clear rainfall is increasing by 14 times.

4.5.3. Change in Cultivated Land

According to LRMP 1986, In Timure VDC, there was 364.16 hectare cultivated area

which includes 184.86 hectare foot hills/tar and 179.3 hectare slope cultivation.

Topographic base map prepared by Survey Department 1993 shows that in Timure

VDC there was 260.77 hectare cultivated land. ALSO (Advanced Land Observing

Satellite) AVNIR 2 10m resolution imagery of October, 2008 of Rasuwa district

shows that there is 166.27 hectare cultivated land which includes 66.59 hectare foot

hills/tar and 99.51 hectare slope (See Annex VI).

Figure 34: Change in Precipitation

50

Above data clearly shows that cultivation land is decreasing. In between 1986-1993, it

decreased by 103.39 ha; in 1993-2008 it is decreased by 94.5 ha and in average 98.9

ha per decade. Climate change is one of the major causes for decreasing agricultural

land in Timure. Land degradation, crop damage and failure, soil erosion, wildfire,

insect and disease outbreak are some of impacts of climate change that caused

declining agricultural practice and production. This decline in agriculture production

with other socio-economic factors such as migration caused change in agriculture

land.

Figure 35: Satellite image of Timure VDC

51

Chapter V

DISCUSSION

All the information which is obtained from the field observation, questionnaire

survey, key informant survey, GIS analysis and literature review are presented in

discussion chapter.

5.1 Change in Temperature and Precipitation

In Timure VDC, temperature is increasing by 0.081 °C/year. Increase in temperature

will affect water balance of natural system as water demand increases system will be

unable to meet the demand. Decreased water availability also has adverse effects on

agricultural production. The subsistence farmers of Timure VDC who depend upon

rain fed agriculture will face severe problems including possible famine because of

decreased agricultural production.

The average annual rainfall in Timure VDC is increasing by 4.92 mm/year. Increase

in rainfall in monsoon season by 8.65mm/year and decreased rainfall in pre monsoon,

post monsoon and winter by -0.95, -0.58 and -2.19 mm/year shows that monsoon

rainfall are going to be more erratic. Increasing number of events of intense

precipitation in monsoon i.e. a changing precipitation pattern would increase the

likelihoods of floods, landslides and droughts.

5.2 Agriculture Land-use Change

Land use, particularly agriculture, is largely determined by climatic factors, like

rainfall amounts, timing and reliability, while at the local scale soil and landscape

features are important. In Timure agricultural land has decreased by 30.43% from

1986-1993 and by 33.75% in between 1993-2008.

The major driver for decreasing agricultural land is due to less productivity of land.

After restoration of democracy in Nepal people got mobility. Their sources of income

become more diverse. Their dependency on subsistence agriculture which has low

economic benefit shifted to off-farm business like overseas employment, pottering

and service sectors. Change in climate also played another role in decreasing

52

agricultural activities as frequency of extreme climatic event like landslide and

drought increased.

5.3 Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Events

5.3.1 Mountain Agriculture

Figure 36: Sloping Agricultural Land at Khaidi Village

Untimely rainfall and drying of water sources decrease agricultural production.

Increasing temperature trend obtained from observation and that felt by the

community matches. People have stopped planting chili for which Timure was

famous. About 50% crop failure occurred due to wilting of chili due to fungus.

Frequency of occurrence of fungus is high due to increase in temperature. Apple

production is decreasing as rainfall is untimely and temperature increasing in Khaidi

village. Apple tree are affected by the disease which causes wilting of leaves.

People are shifting their traditional farming practice into business, employment

outside Nepal and off-farm business due to insecurity in agricultural and less

availability of pasture land for livestock grazing. About 20-24 households of Khaidi

village have shifted to Timure village for new income opportunities.

Major impact on agriculture due to climate change can be summarized as follows

i. Increase incidence of disease and pest:

- Chilly susceptible to fungus, people shift to maize

53

- Apple farming in Khaidi village affected due to fungus which cause

wilting of leaves

ii. Landslide affected agriculture land of Khaidi

iii. Intense rainfall removes soil nutrient of slope land: production lowered (wheat

and barley)

iv. Quality of potato decreasing

5.3.2 Biodiversity

Detail information on biodiversity was difficult to obtain since it needs long

observation such as variation in species availability, density and distribution. It is

difficult to draw conclusion on how forestry and biodiversity have been affected by

climate variability. Firewood consumption for cooking and heating has increased

pressure on forest resource. Weed species like Eupatorium adenophorum ―banmara‖

has spread widely posing threat to existing tree species.

5.3.3 Landslide

In rainy season, landslide affects water sources which

have impact on drinking. Huge landslide at Charchum

blocks road in monsoon season. In rainy days, landslide

frequently damages agricultural field of Khaidi and

affects about 20-24 households.

No effective measures are used to control land slide but

some villagers made retaining wall to control it but it is

not so effective. People here have low income and cannot

afford high cost and their local attempt to control

landslide is limited.

5.4 Adaptation Strategy

People of Timure have adopted strategies to reduce the risk associated with climate

variability and changes. Different strategies for water and agriculture production are

being used. They have used various strategies to survive in a variable environment

throughout history. In the rapidly changing economic, social, and environmental

contexts, only innovative and sustainable adaptation strategies can ensure a secure

lifestyle.

Figure 37: Landslide at Timure

54

5.4.1 Agriculture

People have adapted different strategies to minimize environmental risk and ensure

food security. The main concern for construction of level terraces on steep hill slopes

is to reduce

erosion on one hand and obtain benefits of irrigation. People have made terraces in

hill slope. Another strategy adopted by the

villagers is choice of crops. Maize, millet, wheat,

barley and potato are grown in unirrigated lands.

Native varieties are resistant to local climatic

deviation and ensure food even though is low.

Imported improved varieties though have high

production potential but are less resistant to

climatic stresses such as windstorm, hail and rain.

Farmers in Timure VDC use both improved and

local varieties of maize. Intercropping of different

varieties of crop having different growing period is

also practiced. Grains are stored in

"Bhakari"(system of food grain storage) for deficit

month and "Sahayog" (provision of free labour) for

crisis management. Diversification of income through crops, livestock, wage from

construction work, porterage is strategies used to minimize risks. In recent days,

remittance is used for crisis management.

Livestock is an important source of income of the people living in the hills generally.

It is also an important source for manure of plant nutrient. However, the growth of

livestock farming depends on the availability of fodder from pasture/grazing land.

During winter it is almost impossible to graze animals in highland pasture due to

severe cold and snow. Traditionally, people travel to lower regions for grazing in

winter and use subtropical forest and grassland (e.g. Lende Khola watershed). They

take their livestock to alpine pasture (e.g. Bhrangkhark) in the summer. They follow

fixed calendar of use, specific areas are for specific animals.

Figure 38: Bhakari for Grain Storage

55

5.4.2 Biodiversity

There is no specific strategy to reduce impact on biodiversity. Langtang National Park

is aimed at protecting forest and biodiversity with the help of local people. Anti-

poaching committee has been formed to regulate hunting. Similarly, buffer zone

community is also mobilized to preserve biodiversity from community level.

5.4.3 Water Resource

Local people use different stretegies

to meet their water needs. In Timure

village taping of water started in

1986 B.S. from Gumbaling stream. A

3,500 liters tank was built to store

water to serve 70 households. The

District Development Committee

(DDC) provides annual budget for its

maintenance.

In Khaidi, villagers have made a

small ditch near the village to collect water from a spring to supply drinking water.

Though drinking water project in Khaidi was started during Panchayat era (1986.), it

is not in use today because of weak social institution and poor maintenance. Due to

drying up of this drinking water source, people have started implementing new

drinking water and irrigation projects. This project is supported by Unity Service

Cooperation (USC) Nepal.

Figure 39: Ghatte Khola

56

Chapter VI

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

6.1 Conclusion

Timure is a typical rural Tamang VDC inhabited by community whose major source

of income is agriculture. Although agriculture is the main source of income, it is not

sufficient to feed their family throughout the year because of less agriculture land and

less crop production. Poor economic condition and low human development in terms

of education, health and other physical infrastructure is characteristics social feature

of the VDC.

The analysis of past temperature records suggests a clear warming trend. The

maximum temperatures were increasing more rapidly (0.104°C/year) than the

minimum temperatures (0.06°C/year) indicating a widening range. The analysis of

precipitation data however did not show increasing or decreasing trend regarding

different seasons but the amount of annual rainfall showed increasing trend

(4.92mm/year). GIS analysis of landuse change clearly indicates there is shift and

decrease in agriculture land area. These in turn are triggered by climate change and

socioeconomic changes. People suggest that rainfall is untimely and that temperature

has increased. Due to this change there is increasing pest and disease infestation on

crops, reduction in fruit quality, nutrient loss from soil and land degradation. All this

help reduce agriculture production. At the same time, people are changing their

traditional occupation. They search new alternatives such as off farm business and

employment outside Nepal which are less risky than agriculture to diversify their

livelihood.

People have pursued different strategies to reduce vulnerabilities from climate related

disaster. These strategies include selection of sites for housing and cultivation in

sunny slope, intercropping, bio-engineering measures such as terracing, change in

crop calendar, migration and diversification of income. However, the traditional

social safety net of risk avoidance has been weakening. Policy driven or planned

adaptation strategies along with autonomous options need to enable people to address

negative impact of climate change. To that end high priority should be accorded to

building drinking water system, irrigation infrastructure, improving the quality of soil.

57

Other options include improving availability of fertilizer and improved seeds. In

general, climate change should be considered in long-term planning horizon to

maximize adaptive capacity.

6.2 Recommendation

The recommendation is made based on the analysis of hydro-meteorological data

available from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Department of Survey,

Central Bureau of Statistics and social-economic data generated from the field study.

There is need for more analytical research on relation of food security with agriculture

production, forestry and water system as a consequence of changes in climate. The

possible adaptation options for minimizing the magnitude of damage by climate

change should be assessed through studies and participatory assessments. Possible

research themes are as follows.

Assessment on impact of climate change on specific crop

Assessment on effect of increase carbon dioxide in atmosphere and effect on

crop productivity in mountain

Understand relation between climatic parameters, shift and trend of cultivated

land

Increase density of meteorological stations in mountains region

Preparation of planned adaptation options are required in Timure VDC

Climate change has complex impact on agriculture system and existing

socioeconomic context of Nepal make them more complex. Assessing impact is

complex because of the uncertainties and assumptions that needs to be taken. There

must be rigorous study on impact due to climate change in rainfall pattern or drought,

despite same amount of rainfall. Such analysis is important for building confidence in

determining the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and food

security.

58

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63

ANNEX

ANNEX I: Change in Temperature A. Dhunche

64

65

B. Langtang

66

67

ANNEX II: Change in Precipitation

A. Dhunche

68

B. Langtang

69

C. Timure

70

71

ANNEX III: Change in Discharge

72

ANNEX IV: Change in distribution of Temperature

73

ANNEX V: Change in Distribution of Precipitation

74

ANNEX VI: Land use Change

75

ANNEX VII: Change in Agricultural Land

76

77

ANNEX VIII: Questionnaire for the Analysis of Climate Change

Name of Data Collector:

Date:

A. Household Information

Respondent Name : ........................................................

Caste/Ethnic Group : ........................................................

Sex : ........................................................

Age : ........................................................ Education : ........................................................

Occupation : ........................................................

Current Address (VDC/Ward) : .........................................................

Family size:

Family size Below 10 year 11-45 years 45 and above

Sex Male Female Male Female Male female

Number

Education

1 Income Source of family (Rank them):

Agriculture Business Tourism Remittance Hotel Service Other

2. Do you own agricultural land?

Yes No

If yes how much land do you own for agricultural practices?

……………………………

3. Is your agricultural production sufficient to raise your family throughout the year?

Yes No

If yes, your agricultural production is enough for:

A)less than 3 months b) 3-6months c) 7-11 month

4. How do you manage for rest of the time?

Go outside for employment/porter

Aboard employment Domestic Animal selling

Loan from neighbor Business other

B. Information on Climate Change (Precipitation, temperature, and hydrological event)

5. Have you experienced any changes in rainfall pattern over the last 10-20 years or so?

Yes No I don’t know

If yes, what kind of change?

Rainfall has increased Rainfall has decreased

6. Have you noticed following changes in rainfall pattern?

Longer period for rainy

seasons

Shorter period & low rainfall Heavy rainfall at once

Unusual & untimely

rainfall

Delayed summer monsoon

start

Decreased winter

monsoon

Long drought Increase in hailstorm &

windstorm

Others

7. Have you noticed any significant change in snowfall pattern?

Yes No

78

If yes,

Increase in snowfall during winter Decrease in snowfall during winter

Unusual and untimely snow

falling

Others

8. Temperature is gradually increasing day by day.

Yes No

What is your personal experience regarding temperature change over past 10-20 years or so?

Extreme cold during

winter seasons

Days are becoming hotter

during summer

No significant

changes

Extreme hot days Winter are less cold and

frosty

Others

9. What are the consequences of warmer winters/longer drought?

Older and children find their villages more

conformable live in winter

Housing construction has changed

due to less cold

Tourism business are more profitable due to

longer drought period in the post monsoon

months

Others

10. Have you noticed any significant changes in wind pattern?

Yes No

If yes,

Strong wind blowing has increased Strong wind blowing has decreased

Cold wind blowing has increased Cold wind blowing has decreased

Others

C. Impact and adaptation to agriculture

11. What are the major crops/vegetables/fruits and its production

Crop Type Cultivation Month Production

now before now before

Food

Crops

Pulses

Cash

Crop

Vegetables

Oil Seeds

Others(specify)

79

12. What are the major livestock and holding?

Animal Number

13. Have you noticed change in agricultural production over past 10-20 years or so?

Yes No

If yes, what kind of change you have noticed in agricultural production?

Production has increased Production has decreased

14. Have you noticed change in agriculture in agricultural production?

Yes No

If yes,

Crops

now Before

15. Do you feel that warmer days have any significant effect on crops/fruits/vegetables growing?

Bigger and testy food product Quality of food product decrease

Take more time to grow Take short time to grow plant

16. What are the possible causes for changing the crops?

Decrease in production of former crops New diseases and pest

Lack of irrigation Price of seed raised

17. In your opinion what are the possible causes for decrease in agricultural production?

Extreme weather condition Drought condition

Soil erosion Landslide

Diseases and pest Less availability of chemical fertilizer

18. IS there any government and non-governmental organizations working for the agriculture

improvement program?

Yes No

Detail

Name Working field

D. Water Resources:

19. What are the major source of water for drinking/Irrigation and other purpose?

River or streams Spring

Pond Rainwater

Snows Other

20. Generally how much time you spent for fetching drinking water?

Less than 15 min 30 min

1-3 hours More than 3 hours

80

21. Have you noticed changes in water availability and quantity in water sources in the past and

present?

Yes No

If yes, causes of water scarcity:

Drying up springs/pond/river Drought

Low rainfall Abnormal rainfall/snowfall

22. What are the measures adopted to cope with water scarcity for drinking purpose?

Rain water harvesting Water piping from distant water source

Forestation Others(specify)

23. What are the measures adopted to cope with water scarcity for irrigation purpose?

Rain water collection Construction of irrigation cannel

Using waste water Others(specify)

E. Forest and Biodiversity

24. The condition of nearby forest resource has:

Forest is dense and wild animal has

increased

Forest is dense but decrease in wild

species

Condition of forest is same as before Forest is degraded and decrease in

wild species

25. What are the major issues/concerns related to forest/biodiversity

Forest Coverage is decreasing Less availability of fodder

Scarcity of fuel wood Depletion of animals and birds

Others(specify)

26. What are the major measures taken to solve the issues/concerns related to forest/biodiversity?

CFU group take care of forest Plantation and preserve forest

NTFPs Renewable energy resources

Others (specify)

F. Natural Disaster

27. What are the most significant climate related disasters in your community?

Landslide Flood Drought Soil Erosion Heavy Snowfall Hailstorm Other

28. What do you think the major causes of land slide and flood?

Abnormal rainfall Heavy rainfall

Deforestation GLOF event

Forest encroachment Others

29. What is the trend for occurrence of climate related natural disasters?

Increased Decreased I don’t Know

30. Which Natural Disaster has affected your community the most?

………………………………………….

31. What is the adverse impact caused by natural disasters in your family and community?

Infrastructure loss Agriculture land

Drinking water source Irrigation cannel

Forest and wild animal Other

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32. What are the losses caused by natural disasters to your family and community over past 10 years?

Losses in Detail

Agriculture land

Agriculture production

Infrastructure

Human life

Loss of animal

33. Did people in your community migrated to other place due to natural disaster?

Yes No

If yes where,

………………………………………………….

34. What helped you to recover the losses?

Support from neighbor Remittance sent by family member

By selling ornament Business

Loan Migration

Support from GOs and NGOs Self Help Group

Other(Specify)

35. What are the measures taken by community to overcome natural disaster?

Forestation Conservation of forest

Bio-engineering Embankment

Other(specify)

36. Is there any network for communicating the news/warning of natural disaster?

Yes No

If yes what type of communication

…………………………………………………..

37. What will be the serious issues for your community in coming days?

Landslide & flooding by GLOF Depletion of forest

Soil Erosion and loss in agriculture land Water scarcity

Decreased agriculture production Migration

Other(Specify)