effect of space weather on orbit propagation · space weather: • atmop h2020 project –advance...

DEG-CMS-SUPSC03-PRE-12-E © Copyright DEIMOS

Trademarks "Elecnor Deimos", "Deimos" and the logo of Deimos (Elecnor Group) encompass Elecnor Group’s companies of Aerospace, Technology and Information Systems: Deimos Space S.L.U. (Tres Cantos, Madrid, Spain), Deimos Engineering and Systems S.L.U. (Puertollano,Ciudad Real, Spain), Deimos Engenharia S.A. (Lisbon, Portugal), Deimos Space UK Ltd. (Harwell, Oxford, United Kingdom), Deimos Space

S.R.L. (Bucharest, Romania).

Effect of Space Weather on Orbit Propagation

Proposal from Deimos Space UK Ltd. and University of Strathclyde

Emma Kerr and Malcolm Macdonald

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Disciplines:

❑ Orbital Dynamics, Flight Dynamics, Optimisation, Data Processing

❑ Risk Assessment, Conjunction analysis, Re-entry risk, Impact Evaluation

❑ Simulation, Research and Operational Software Development

❑ Observational Strategies

❑ Sensor Integration, Deployment, and Operations: Telescopes

❑ SW modelling and Operational Services

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Background on Deimos

Space Situational Awareness comprises three main fields:

Space Weather (SWE) Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) & Space Debris

Near Earth Objects (NEO)



SSA Products and Tools

• Deimos Sky Survey (DeSS): Observations of space objects (SST, NEO)

❑ Observation Planning

❑ Sensor Control tool

❑ Image Processing Pipeline

❑ Measurement Processing

❑ Supporting SW: Meteorological station and observatory control

• Cataloguing SW

❑ CORTO suite: CORTO / CORTO Editor & House Keeping / OEM check / CHOCO / SMS

❑ LEO radar parallelised cataloguer

• SST Services

❑ Conjunction Analysis Tool

❑ Re-entry Prediction Tool

❑ Fragmentation Analysis Tool

• Other

❑ Sensor Analysis and Calibration Tool (CALMA)

❑ Advanced Space Surveillance Simulator (AS4)

❑ Dedicated Processing Tools

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Deimos Sky Survey (DeSS) Observatory

Located in Puerto de Niefla

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DeSS Observatory

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Observation Planning Sensor Control Image Processing

Final Product: Astrometric observations & photometric

data



Key Capabilities and Projects

Space Weather:

• ATMOP H2020 Project – Advance thermosphere modelling for orbit prediction

• SEISOP tool for ESA – an operational tool supporting mission

• P2-SWE-X study – Mission and performance analysis, operational spacecraft at L1 or L5

• P2-SWE-II services – index archives, atmospheric effect estimation, tailored services for SST users

SST:

• Analysis, design, development and operation of SST systems and services

• DeSS and follow on data processing, conjunction assessment and re-entry warnings

• Operating ESA’s NEO coordination centre

• Key role in Spanish SST system (S3T)

NEO:

• Complete product chain

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Background on Strathclyde

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THE UNIVERSITYOF STRATHCLYDEstrath.ac.uk

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ABOUT US…

▪ Founded in 1796

▪ Tradition of ‘useful learning’

▪ Winner of eight Times Higher

Education Awards

▪ Research Excellence

▪ Physics 1st in UK

▪ 7 of 8 Engineering departments

ranked in top 10 in UK

A LEADING INTERNATIONAL

TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

BASED IN THE HEART OF

GLASGOW.

DEG-CMS-SUPSC03-PRE-12-E © Copyright DEIMOS 9

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SPACE

▪ Accelerating the development

of space technologies and

services across

▪ Space access

▪ Space enabled services

▪ Space exploration

ONE OF EUROPE’S LARGEST

SPACE ENGINEERING

RESEARCH ACTIVITIES


Background on Emma

PhD in Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

University of Strathclyde, 2013-2018

Thesis: General Perturbations Methods for Orbit Propagation with Particular Application to Orbit Lifetime Analysis (Supervised by Malcolm Macdonald)

Post Doctoral Research Fellow

RMIT University/Space Environment Research Centre, 2018-2019

Project: Developing improved atmospheric density models to improve orbit propagation methods

Deimos Space UK Ltd.

SSA Engineer and Project Manager, 2019-Present

Projects: Various SSA projects from conjunction analysis to space object characterisation studies

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Background on Malcolm

• 2000 – 2002: PhD in Aeronautical Engineering, University of Glasgow

• 2003 – 2004: Research Assistant, University of Glasgow

• 2005 – 2008: Technical Architect, SciSys (UK) Ltd (now CGI)

• 2008 – onwards: Academic staff, University of Strathclyde

• Currently Professor & Chair of Space Technology

• Also,

• 2017 – onwards: Non-Executive Board Member, UK Space Agency

• 2019 – onwards: Special Advisor on Innovation, Huli.life

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Previous Work

Underpinning Idea of Emma’s PhD Thesis

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Previous Work

Starting with G.P. (Analytical Methods)

There were two things to tackle:

• The method itself

• The inputs to the method which are time dependent, these include but are not limited to:

❑ Atmospheric Density

❑ Drag Coefficient

❑ Project Area

While each of these topics is important the key one here is the atmospheric density.

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Previous Work

Atmospheric Density Modelling for G.P. methods for OP

One of the largest influences on atmospheric density is solar activity. Most G.P. methods for OP don’t capture it because of the time dependency.

But as it’s such a large influence, a method to capture it was necessary.

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50

100

150

200

250

300

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Sola

r Fl

ux

(SFU

)

Date


1E-07

1E-06

1E-05

1E-04

1E-03

1E-02

1E-01

1E+00

1E+01

1E+02

1E+03

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

De

nsi

ty (

kg/k

m3)

Altitude (km)

Low Solar ActivityModerate Solar ActivityHigh Solar Activity

Previous Work


In studying how to improve predictions via atmospheric density a new index was designed to capture solar activity effects based on the F10.7 index. Preliminary tests were promising…

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𝑫𝑰 𝒕 =𝑺𝑭 − 𝑺𝑭𝒎𝒊𝒏

𝑺𝑭𝒎𝒂𝒙 − 𝑺𝑭𝒎𝒊𝒏=𝑺𝑭 − 𝟕𝟎

𝟏𝟖𝟎


1E-07

1E-06

1E-05

1E-04

1E-03

1E-02

1E-01

1E+00

1E+01

1E+02

1E+03

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

De

nsi

ty (

kg/k

m3)

Altitude (km)

Previous Work


In studying how to improve predictions via atmospheric density a new index was designed to capture solar activity effects based on the F10.7 index. Preliminary tests were promising…

16

𝑫𝑰 𝒕 =𝑺𝑭 − 𝑺𝑭𝒎𝒊𝒏

𝑺𝑭𝒎𝒂𝒙 − 𝑺𝑭𝒎𝒊𝒏=𝑺𝑭 − 𝟕𝟎

𝟏𝟖𝟎


Previous Work

Initial Validation

To initially test the hypothesis, 21 spacecraft were selected:

These Spacecraft were each selected because they were spherical and had de-orbited already with varying orbit lifetimes from a few months to years.

The spherical nature allowed us to ignore the complication of attitude modelling, the varying lifetimes let us test the hypothesis for a range of solar conditions.

The test group included spacecraft such as:

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ANDE-Castor & Pollux Starshine-3, 4 & 5 GFZ-1


Previous Work

Initial Validation

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-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

% E

rro

r

Lifetime (Days)

Average Abs Error Standard Deviation

Single Density Curves 11.33 % 9.44 %

Multiple Density Curves 3.46 % 3.25 %


The Work

Initial Validation Results

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MethodAverage

Absolute % Error

Absolute Error Standard Deviation

New Method (CIRA density, with DI) 3.46 3.25

Original King-Hele (CIRA density, with DI) 5.10 3.60

Original King-Hele (CIRA density, average solar conditions, no DI) 50.44 24.96

Griffin-French (CIRA density, average solar conditions, no DI) 50.73 25.88

STK 11.39 10.69

STELA 6.63 7.00


The Work

Plan to build on Emma’s previous work

Key Research Question:

Can we separate our individual space weather effects and treat them as perturbations to a static average atmospheric density model?

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The Work

Atmospheric perturbations to be investigated

• Solar activity

❑ We will investigate alternative sources of solar activity data to F10.7

❑ We will study how averaging indices affects results

• Geomagnetic Activity

❑ We will investigate the effect of geomagnetic storms such as the 2015 St. Patrick’s day storm

❑ We will investigate the apparent cause and effect delay in the atmospheric response to geomagnetic storms

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The Work

Atmospheric perturbations to be investigated

• Ionospheric Drag

❑ Many atmospheric models neglect the ionospheric component of drag, we will seek to include it

❑ We will seek to quantify the magnitude of the effect of ionospheric drag

• Atmospheric inhomogeneities (e.g. diurnal effect)

❑ We will investigate how these inhomogeneities can be separated into components

❑ We will demonstrate the magnitude of any pertinent inhomogeneities

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The Work

Recommendations for further work

We will continuously be alert for areas of research not within the scope of this project

In particular we hope to find opportunities to co-sponsor PhD candidates to conduct further research in this domain

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Trademarks "Elecnor Deimos", "Deimos" and the logo of Deimos (Elecnor Group) encompass Elecnor Group’s companies of Aerospace, Technology and Information Systems: Deimos Space S.L.U. (Tres Cantos, Madrid, Spain), Deimos Engineering and Systems S.L.U. (Puertollano,Ciudad Real, Spain), Deimos Engenharia S.A. (Lisbon, Portugal), Deimos Space UK Ltd. (Harwell, Oxford, United Kingdom), Deimos Space

S.R.L. (Bucharest, Romania).

Thank you

www.elecnor-deimos.com

effect of space weather on orbit propagation · space weather: • atmop h2020 project –advance...

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